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2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread: Message board poster furiously types out one more horrible post before thread closes (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Capella
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Kev4029
Footballguy
If Wemby plays, San Antonio could be feisty - still massive underdogs, but they'll be at home for what will likely be Wemby's last game of the year. Memphis is rolling out a G-League team.
I like how the seeding is possibly playing out for the sake of the Nuggets' story lines.
- Rd 1 - Maybe LA or GSW. GSW could be the passing of the torch from previous dynasty to current (Nuggets colored glasses). LA would be a rematch from last season and any Lebron playoff series is fun.
- Rd 2 - Clippers/Mavs - Either the Clippers play their biggest bugaboo from this current iteration and the team that cost them their best chance at a title in the bubble. Or it's the Mavs and Doncic v Jokic.
- Rd 3 - Possibly OKC in the battle for who is going to be the west's top dogs for the next few years.
- Rd 4 - The Heat again as Tatum has another playoff collapse.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
This is the part that gets so much consideration and discussion that I really don't fully understand. This is Tatum's age 25 season. He and Boston get labelled as chockers and collapsers. He's essentially the same age as SGA. Tatum has played in 94 playoff games. SGA has played in 13. (To be clear, for any of this, I am not suggesting that Tatum is as good as any of these players listed, only that this is the early playoff history of the other guys).
Tatum has made the Finals once and the ECF in three other seasons. Here's how other players have fared through their Age 25 season (and again, I admit that the Celtics likely had better rosters most seasons than these other guys had).
Tatum - 1 Finals, 3 ECF
Jokic - 1 WCF
Jordan - 1 WCF
Shaq - 1 Finals
Lebron - 1 Finals, 1 ECF
Harden - 1 Finals, 1 WCF
Duncan - 1 Title, 1 WCF
Wade - 1 Title, 1 ECF
Durant - 1 Finals, 2 WCF
Kawhi - 1 Title, 1 Finals, 2 WCF
Kobe - 3 Titles, 1 Finals, 1 WCF
Others
Curry - None
Giannis - None
Paul - None
Dirk - None
Garnett - None
Butler - None
Basically, Tatum and the Celtics have advanced farther than most guys on that list and / or had multiple seasons getting to at least the conference finals. Did these other current or future HOFers choke early in their careers? Most of them didn't win a championship in those years . . . were they collapsers? Tatum had multiple years where BOS made a run, so we should look at that NEGATIVELY? To me, that seems . . . odd. Like everything else, we can revisit the Celtics collapsing narrative at some point in the future.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Comparing ages is dumb. Wade played four years in college, Lebron played none, but this choker label is weird.
2018 - Celtics without Kyrie or Hayward lost in conference finals to Lebron in 7. Tatums rookie year.
2019 - lost in second round as the lower seed.
2020 - lost in conference finals in the bubble year, beat higher seeded Toronto in round 2 lost to lower seeded Miami in 7.
2021 - lost in the first round they were horrible that year.
2022 - lost in finals in 6. To the Warriors.
2023 - lost in conference finals.
Last year was the only year I really think they choked. In 22 Curry carried the Warriors to a title and couldn't be stopped. You can argue the bubble year they choked. I don't think so, but maybe.
Chemical X
Footballguy
So, the porzingis deal is finally complete and the nyk will get the dallas 1st round pick this year, likely around 20. they have their own pick, so 2 picks around the early 20s. figure they re up OG but Hartenstein likely finds a paying suiter and leaves. knicks can probably use a stretch big and star SG. even some randle insurance. they have assets to have an intriguing off season.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
SGA has never lost a finals game. Can Tatum say that?
trader jake
Footballguy
1) Do the Knicks go after Donovan Mitchell? If not Mitchell, which player does the organization go after? Should they?
2) Is Julius Randle in the team's long-term plans? Should he be?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Had BOS lost to MIA 4-0, I would agree that they choked away a series as the higher seed. But they fought back to tie the series, and Tatum rolled his ankle on the first play of Game 7. We'll never know what would have happened if Tatum didn't get hurt. I would never go so far to say that Boston would have won Game 7 with a healthy Tatum . . . we have no idea what would have happened. Hats off to the Heat . . . they won the game. But kind of hard to fault Tatum in that game as being a chocker where if it were a regular season game, he would have played a total of 26 seconds and been done for the day. The other guys needed to step up and they didn't (Brown 8 TO's, the team shot 21% on 3P, and no one could cover Martin).
At what point do we have to wonder if the Bucks had one season with good fortune and a title that year but very mediocre results before or after. In the other 9 seasons with Giannis, the Bucks missed the playoffs twice, lost in the first round 4 times, lost in the second round twice, and in the ECF once. They were the #1 seed last year and lost to the Heat in the first round, losing all 3 games Giannis played in. Yet the Celtics are the team that gets the choking label from last year.
Public perception is an interesting thing (which will never determine the winner of any games on the court). Wish we could move forward a week to when the playoffs start.
Chemical X
Footballguy
i think the knicks want mitchell, he would fill what i see as a need, a superstar to team with brunson and randle. also, he will likely cost less now than what cleveland paid for him, given he has 1 year left before an opt out. i don’t think the knicks have a player match for his salary, so it would need to be creative. i wonder if the knicks guarantee bogdanovic and include divencenzo, does that salary work plus draft capital. i’d hate to give up divencenzo, but mitchell would make him a bench guy and most expendable. his contract and production could help cleveland. for randle, i think the knicks have 2 more years before deciding. i think he opts in for 25-26. i think brunson opts out after 24-25. randle has had 2 uneven playoffs for the knicks, but can you give him a pass? 20-21 he had 5 horrid games, but that team wasn’t good. they started d rose, randle, bullock, gibson and barrett 3 times in their losing series, including game 5. that is horrid. last year he played on 1 ankle. is his physical style making him break down? i like him as a player. he shows up, plays hurt and is a go to guy better suited as option 2. anunoby took pressure off him and that stretch with him and anunoby together made them look very formidable for 14 games or so. i don’t think he is so easily replaced.
Kev4029
Footballguy
Mitchell is a terrible fit, IMO - he'd certainly improve the team, but not as much as needed to make a trade worth it.
I think Mikal Bridges would be a great fit and maybe BK is more inclined to trade him after a lackluster season (unlikely that Brooklyn and NY would make a trade, regardless).
Lauri Markkanen would be a huge improvement in terms of fit, as compared to Randle. A little better defensively, and a much better play finisher.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
For 50-60 years now.
Kev4029
Footballguy
I was mostly making a joke. I wouldn't call Tatum a choker, but he has been wildly inconsistent in the playoffs. But, that is kind of par for the course because he is wildly inconsistent in the regular season as well. I don't think I've ever seen a player that has his resume/pedigree that is as consistently outplayed by inferior teammates when I watch them. He's certainly the best player on the team and is deserving of his status as one of the best players in the NBA, but I feel like he is more superstar #2 a la Anthony Davis or Scottie Pippen than clearcut #1 that can lead a team to a championship. Luckily for the Celtics, they probably have the best #3, #4, #5, and #6 players of any team in the NBA and one of the better #2s.
Capella
Footballguy
Yes. That is because Giannis and the Bucks have won a title, no matter how many ways you spin it.
Tatum does that and he sheds the label too. That’s how it works.
SWC
Bromigo
i think you can make a straight face argument that giannis the most improved player ever from when he was drafted the first few years he was in the league you could see it was in there but it was not good basketball he finished growing hit the gym and lived in the gym and totally found his game it just was not there like it is now i remember sitting in a hospital bed after my hips were replaced and watching him with my pop and we were both laughing out loud at some of the absurd stuff he did like eurostep away from the basket or throw the ball into the crowd i mean it turned out great but man there was some stuff when he was a rookie and second year guy this is all to say that the missed playoff years with him are totally understandable if you were watching him like i was take that to the bank bromigo
For playoff-caliber teams with a couple of really good players already, I think either of those guys (Bridges or Markkanen) is worth trading a boatload of draft capital for. I certainly would like the Kings to do so.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Switching right to left hand mid-air over a 3-time defensive player of the year (Gobert)
Yep. Definitely a nominee
But going back-to-back next play with the alley-oop two-hander was what really blew the roof off
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think this may happen in some games, but across the entirety of the season, I don't think that's a regular thing. It also has a lot to do with the quality of the Celtics roster. I am not sure what "outplayed" or "inconsistent" are defined by. I don't love Tatum, as I think he whines way too much and needs to do more a lot of the time by actually shooting less. IMO, "do more" does not mean launching hero ball threes all the time. But I digress.
Here are all the times a player scored 25+ points for the Celtics this season. Tatum 48, Brown 30, Porzingas 12, White 7, Hauser 2, Pritchard 1. Tatum has scored 20+ in 64 of 73 games played. He's scored 15+ in every game but one. Holiday and Horford haven't hit 25 in a game, but they were close.
As a comparison, here is the same breakdown for the Nuggets. 25-point games: Jokic 54, Murray 17, Porter 13, Gordon 2, Jackson 2, Braun 1. Jokic has scored 20+ in 63 games out of 77 games played. He's scored 15+ in 70 of them.
Again, I am not trying to compare Tatum to make a case that he is anywhere near close to Jokic. Compared to many teams, Boston has a top second scorer and a roster with a fair amount of other players that can score when needed. Not really sure we should be dinging Tatum for having other good players on his team. IMO, spreading the ball around and having multiple shooters and scorers on the court is why Boston has won 60+ games. Not sure that Boston would have won more if Tatum tried to do more or take more shots this season. If Tatum averaged 33 ppg and the Celtics won 51 games instead, is that a better outcome?
So far this season, we have seen that Boston has done better and broken down less with Holiday and KP starting and more minutes for White, Hauser, and Pritchard in place of Marcus Smart / Rob Williams / Grant Williams / Malcolm Brogdon. We all know that no one cares about the regular season, and either Boston wins the title this year or this season will be considered a disappointment. Those are the only two outcomes for a team that has been close multiple other times in recent seasons.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Maybe in the non-Ant division
Major
Footballguy
That's what I was thinking. I do give him points for a playoff atmosphere and the Gobert factor but not even close to Ant or some of the ones Jalen Green threw down. RIP Simons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqXZMH38cSM
Kev4029
Footballguy
You're probably right. Certainly #1 for the melanin challenged bracket.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Perhaps not the sheer force...but the degree of difficulty of Braun switching mid-air from right to left hand and finishing over a 7-footer was insane.
Best comp IMO was John Starks' left-hander over Jordan and Grant back in the day
Best comp IMO was John Starks' left-hander over Jordan and Grant back in the day
trader jake
Footballguy
Loved Braun's dunk last night (and Jalen Green's too) but what about Brandon Miller? He shook Garrison Mathews to another zip code, then kicked Bruno Fernando out the club.
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Major
Footballguy
You got me thinking about the whiteboy dunks of all time and Tom Chambers elevating to another zip code back in the day is the only notable one I can recall. Sure Rex Champman had a few as well. That dude could fly.
Kev4029
Footballguy
Birdman and Brent Berry probably had some good ones as well.
Kev4029
Footballguy
And here is the Tom Chambers famous dunk on Mark Jackson. Very similar to the Jalen Green dunk linked earlier where he gets a little boost from the dude he's dunking over.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Holy crap. The Ringer had a stat today - Luka has been in 25 different starting lineups this year. SGA has been in six.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have never given any thought to starting lineup configurations before, but since you brought it up . . . different starting lineups by team so far this season:
51 - MEM
40 - POR
36 - DET
35 - PHI, MIA
33 - DAL
31 - CHA, UTA
29 - TOR
26 - IND, GSW
24 - BOS, WAS
21 - ATL, PHO
20 - SAS
19 - CLE, BRK, LAL
18 - MIL, NYK, ORL, LAC
16 - CHI, NOP
14 - DEN
13 - MIN
11 - OKC, HOU
07 - SAC
God bless the Grizzlies.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Going back to the 2002-03 season, only 3 teams made the Finals with a losing record against teams .500 or better. The 2005-06 Heat team won at 19-21, while the 2016-17 Cavs (22-25) and 2017-18 Cavs (22-23) lost. That's 3 teams out of 42 (7%). (I only had easy access to data back to the 2002-03 season.)
That likely doesn't mean anything, but here are the 20 teams advancing past Game 82 with losing records against teams .500 or better this year.
NYK 19-27
CLE 19-26
ORL 17-26
PHI 18-26
MIA 17-27
CHI 17-32
ATL 18-30
DAL 22-25
SAC 25-26
LAL 23-27
GSW 19-30
That's 11 of the 20 teams. SAC needs to beat NOP and PHO to get off the list. LAC will likely have to beat HOU to avoid making the list. NOP needs to beat one of SAC/GSW/LAL to keep off the list. PHO needs a road win against either SAC or MIN to stay .500 or better.
That likely doesn't mean anything, but here are the 20 teams advancing past Game 82 with losing records against teams .500 or better this year.
NYK 19-27
CLE 19-26
ORL 17-26
PHI 18-26
MIA 17-27
CHI 17-32
ATL 18-30
DAL 22-25
SAC 25-26
LAL 23-27
GSW 19-30
That's 11 of the 20 teams. SAC needs to beat NOP and PHO to get off the list. LAC will likely have to beat HOU to avoid making the list. NOP needs to beat one of SAC/GSW/LAL to keep off the list. PHO needs a road win against either SAC or MIN to stay .500 or better.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Nate Duncan posited that it may have been the greatest dunk by a white player ever
Desert_Power
Footballguy
The last few minutes of that game were really fun.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Tatum isn't even close to wildly inconsistent in the regular season. In fact, I'd say the opposite. He's good for at least 20/8 with some assists and good defense every single night and rarely misses games. If he's "inconsistent" I'd love to see who you think is consistent. The only guy I'd trust more to have fewer letdowns over 82 games is Jokic.
You must not watch Boston much. Brown is wildly inconsistent and a lot of the other guys (maybe not KP) can disappear for entire games, but Tatum is the steady rock in the middle. He may not put up 40 every night, but no one does.
Major
Footballguy
And Chambers was never known for his dunking prowess. Imagine Jokic pulling something like out of his hat one day
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Most likely landing spots as the season wraps up.
1 - BOS
2 - MIL 75.3%
3 - NYK 71.2%
4 - CLE 54.4%
5 - ORL 44.2%
6 - IND 47.2%
7 - PHI 50.5%
8 - MIA 55.1
9 - CHI
10 - ATL
1 - DEN 68.6%
2 - MIN 63.8%
3 - OKC 64.9%
4 - LAC 97.4%
5 - DAL 97.4%
6 - NOP 80.9%
7 - PHO 63.1%
8 - SAC 51.8%
9 - GSW 55.2%
10 - LAL 69.7%
1 - BOS
2 - MIL 75.3%
3 - NYK 71.2%
4 - CLE 54.4%
5 - ORL 44.2%
6 - IND 47.2%
7 - PHI 50.5%
8 - MIA 55.1
9 - CHI
10 - ATL
1 - DEN 68.6%
2 - MIN 63.8%
3 - OKC 64.9%
4 - LAC 97.4%
5 - DAL 97.4%
6 - NOP 80.9%
7 - PHO 63.1%
8 - SAC 51.8%
9 - GSW 55.2%
10 - LAL 69.7%
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
The 4 play-in teams are set in the west though, just not the seeds, right? Philly, Indy, and Miami are still fighting for the 6, correct?
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
yes to all of that
edit: actually no, the pels could still be in the play in and the suns and kings could get to 6.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
No. CLE-IND-ORL-PHI-MIA can all avoid the play in in the East. Two of those will end up in the 7 and 8 slots. NOS-PHO-SAC-GSW-LAL could all end up as the 6 in the West still (the other 4 will be in the play in).
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I don't think that GS and LAL can be the 6 after the Pels win last night.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Yeah, I didn't refresh the percentages from when I checked earlier this morning. The Bottom 3 in the West can't escape the play in. New Orleans 81% for the 6 seed.
Instinctive
Footballguy
4-5 set except if LAC loses both and DAL wins both they'd flip HCA.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Yea, I thought the Lakers were locked into 9 or 10 now.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
You cant be comparing Shai’s success to Tatum’s success in regard to the accomplishments of the team. For much of the time that Shai has been in OKC, the team and organizations strategy was to tank in order to rebuild for the future. His ability and desire to win was handcuffed by the organizations desire to lose. We are just finally starting to see the potential of how “winning” a player that SGA can be. For Tatum, a large portion of his career so far has been centered around playing with immense talent for a contending team where the motivation of the organization is to win. Over the past several seasons, the motivation and trajectories of the Thunder and Celtics have been wildly different. Until recently, Shai has been in an environment where losing was the plan. Tatum has been playing in an environment where winning has been the design for a lot of his career. Both are great players- so please don’t interpret this as me throwing shade on either.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
I’m guessing Warriors-Lakers (assuming it’s that) will have a bit more league interest than Bulls-Hawks.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Maybe they tanked so they could raise a Play-In Tournament Champion banner to go next to the In-Season Tournament Champion one.
the moops
Footballguy
Good dunk. Wouldn’t make a top 10 list for best in game dunks this year unless we only consider white guys.
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