Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Blue and red Sacramento Kings uniforms take me back to my childhood. Way before they took off in the late 90s, I decided I would be a fan of theirs as ultra contrarian position, then I gave up on them when they got good.
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2024-25 NBA Thread: posters rush in to make final bad Bronny takes before thread locks (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter Capella
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Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Did you have a Mark Olberding jersey?
Major
Footballguy
I loved those baby blue ones they had in the late 80s/early 90s. The ones tonight almost look like Kansas Jayhawk kits.
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identikit
Footballguy
Very Rock Chalk!!
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Of all the former Gophers names I could read in this thread today I never would have guessed this one.
Zow
Footballguy
Little Woz is crashing from the excitement of a solid win and a tub of cotton candy. So, some observations in no particular order:
- Wolves are looking better and the team was energized tonight. Edwards projected so much energy and the Finch ejection was a positive thing.
- I’m glad the advance defensive metrics are kind to Gobert because the eye test isn’t. He looks clumsy and you forget he’s even on the court.
- Julius Randle is probably the second best player on the team and his teammates like him. But man I don’t see them going as far as last year with him as the second options. He reminds me of the NBA version of Kirk Cousins where’s he too good to bench or trade away, but you aren’t winning a title with him. I miss KAT.
- Durant is still stupid good as a scorer. Just a freak show every time I see him in person. He needs to rebound though.
- I don’t get the Beal situation at all. He came off the bench and I thought he played well. He seemed comparable to Booker. But he only played 25 minutes.
- Suns have no depth. I like Richards but Mason Plumlee played meaningful minutes.
- In contrast, Wolves are starting to look like they have last year’s depth and Alexander-Walker, McDaniels, etc are wonderful role players.
- The Suns comment above notwithstanding, Grayson Allen will have a spot in this league for another five years. He seems to do most things right and he can hit threes. The Suns are better with him on the floor. He impressed me tonight and sees way more mature than the insufferable guy he seemed at Duke.
- Watching the deep bench guys are fascinating. From our seats we basically had the Wokves end of the bench in our constant sight line. Ingles looked like he was in his element at a reunion and it was social hour. In contrast, Mitton stretched and warmed up during every stoppage and clearly wanted to be ready should his name get called. When it did he was so excited, got in there with laser focus, was literally in for just one play where he committed a terrible foul and went back to the bench for the game. He looked so dejected. So fascinating from a “this guy prepared to do his job as best as he could all day only to completely screw up in his one moment” kind of way. I can’t imagine “working” like that.
- Dillingham has talent but still looks like a boy amongst men out there. Give me Conley any day.
- Wolves are looking better and the team was energized tonight. Edwards projected so much energy and the Finch ejection was a positive thing.
- I’m glad the advance defensive metrics are kind to Gobert because the eye test isn’t. He looks clumsy and you forget he’s even on the court.
- Julius Randle is probably the second best player on the team and his teammates like him. But man I don’t see them going as far as last year with him as the second options. He reminds me of the NBA version of Kirk Cousins where’s he too good to bench or trade away, but you aren’t winning a title with him. I miss KAT.
- Durant is still stupid good as a scorer. Just a freak show every time I see him in person. He needs to rebound though.
- I don’t get the Beal situation at all. He came off the bench and I thought he played well. He seemed comparable to Booker. But he only played 25 minutes.
- Suns have no depth. I like Richards but Mason Plumlee played meaningful minutes.
- In contrast, Wolves are starting to look like they have last year’s depth and Alexander-Walker, McDaniels, etc are wonderful role players.
- The Suns comment above notwithstanding, Grayson Allen will have a spot in this league for another five years. He seems to do most things right and he can hit threes. The Suns are better with him on the floor. He impressed me tonight and sees way more mature than the insufferable guy he seemed at Duke.
- Watching the deep bench guys are fascinating. From our seats we basically had the Wokves end of the bench in our constant sight line. Ingles looked like he was in his element at a reunion and it was social hour. In contrast, Mitton stretched and warmed up during every stoppage and clearly wanted to be ready should his name get called. When it did he was so excited, got in there with laser focus, was literally in for just one play where he committed a terrible foul and went back to the bench for the game. He looked so dejected. So fascinating from a “this guy prepared to do his job as best as he could all day only to completely screw up in his one moment” kind of way. I can’t imagine “working” like that.
- Dillingham has talent but still looks like a boy amongst men out there. Give me Conley any day.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
The feds are looking into some gambling irregularities around Terry Rozier in a 2023 game (when he was with the Hornets). I guess it was the same gambling group involved with the Jontay Porter case.
NBA says it did its own investigation and didn’t find anything, but there’s some interesting things being recirculated online from that time that look pretty damning.
NBA says it did its own investigation and didn’t find anything, but there’s some interesting things being recirculated online from that time that look pretty damning.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This might be a way to fix the load management and effort in the regular season. Force all the starters to bet on their players props, but they have to bet the overs.
Major
Footballguy
Not surprising. With the amount of props bets available nowadays these scandals are only going to become more prevalent in the years to come. Lifetime bans and jail time seem like reasonable consequences.
the moops
Footballguy
oh come on
Major
Footballguy
Depending on the $ value, I consider fraud, theft and organized crime a big deal but maybe that's just me
Zow
Footballguy
It's arguably a crime to fix a game.
Major
Footballguy
Atta boy Alpe!
Western Conference reserves
Anthony Davis, Lakers
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
James Harden, Clippers
Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
Alperen Sengun, Rockets
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
Jalen Williams, Thunder
Eastern Conference
Jaylen Brown, Celtics
Cade Cunningham, Pistons
Darius Garland, Cavs
Tyler Herro, Heat
Damian Lillard, Bucks
Evan Mobley, Cavs
Pascal Siakam, Pacers
Western Conference reserves
Anthony Davis, Lakers
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
James Harden, Clippers
Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
Alperen Sengun, Rockets
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
Jalen Williams, Thunder
Eastern Conference
Jaylen Brown, Celtics
Cade Cunningham, Pistons
Darius Garland, Cavs
Tyler Herro, Heat
Damian Lillard, Bucks
Evan Mobley, Cavs
Pascal Siakam, Pacers
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Sabonis over Sengun, Kyrie over Harden or JJJ. Ball or Trae over Herro.
Jayrod
Footballguy
This schtick is worse than any Celtics, Sixers or any number of other insufferable takes.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Sorry, I’ll try to be more Serious Business for you going forward. Seems like my [checks notes] one post of schtick was just too much to take. I promise I’ll do better.
Major
Footballguy
Sabonis may have better stats but his team is disappointing this year and he's kind of boring to watch compared to Alpe. 2nd best in the West gives Sengun the edge.
I also thought Paolo/Wagner were deserving before injuries derailed them. I really think they should expand the roster to 15 though. So many great players get left out every year.
scoobus
Footballguy
To be fair, this Wizards team might be worse competition than most of the G League teams he's used to facing.
scoobus
Footballguy
Lol just checked the box score, saw he was 1-6 from the field. Bronny! Bronny!
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Yeah it was a rough watch most of the second half.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
And that improved his season FG%.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Yo Mama
Footballguy
I thought about making a Jrue over Tatum comment in my all-star snub list.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Since you brought it up, there's no great way to rank players, but I will use WS/48 as a common denominator. The median WS/48 score for the 187 players that qualify so far this season is .103 (meaning a player with that score would be considered an average player). Here's how the rosters look . . .
KAT - .238 (5), Giannis - .222 (7), Brunson - .200 (12), Tatum - .179 (19), Mitchell - .162 (31)
Garland - .202 (9), Mobley - .201 (11), Lillard - .191 (14), Siakem - .161 (27), Herro - .140 (42), Brown - .113 (75), Cunningham - .90 (112)
10 Highest Ranked Eastern Conference Players:
Jarrett Allen - .243 (4), Goga Bidatze - .196 (12), Payton Pritchard - 191 (14), Josh Hart - .183 (17), Jalen Duran - .180 (18), Tyrese Haliburton - .171 (22), Onyeka Okongwu - .166 (24), Nikola Vucevic - .165 (26), Franz Wagner - .162 (30), Jacon Poeltl - .147 (35)
Jokic - .321 (1), SGA - 312 (2), Curry - .147 (33), Lebron - .133 (50), KD - .127 (61)
Davis - .205 (8), Sengun - .185 (16), Jackson - .168 (25), Williams - .162 (30), Wemby - .128 (56), Harden - .127 (62), Edwards - .114 (74)
10 Highest Ranked Western Conference Players:
Daniel Gafford - .256 (3), Damontas Sabonis -226 (6), Ivik Zubac - .196 (13), Rudy Gobert - .178 (20), Amen Thompson - .178 (21), Walker Kessler - .165 (25), Trayce Jackson-Davis - .163 (29),
Norman Powell - .161 (32), Santi Aldama - .158 (33), Desmond Bane - .154 (34)
As for the other players you mentioned: Kyrie - .146 (39), Booker - .133 (49), Maxey - .120 (68), Ball - .112 (77)
Instinctive
Footballguy
Harden over Kyrie seems crazy but what do I know
Major
Footballguy
I'm as big a Harden hater as any but what he and the Clips have done this season is pretty amazing. I had them marked for dead without Klaw. 21/6/8/2 is AS worthy and while not nearly as efficient he outpaces Kyrie in every category except points. Personally, I'd rather see Powell get in there over both of them.
Instinctive
Footballguy
They're one game ahead of Dallas. Kyrie has 25% more WS/48. Dallas has been the most injured team in the league and Kyrie is keeping them in contention. The Clippers are a disappointment IMO relative to talent level and Harden continues to suck on defense.
And, btw, efficiency matters lol
Major
Footballguy
I also forgot to note, I kind of hate Kyrie too lol
Instinctive
Footballguy
I'm not sure what was funny about my post (maybe you misclicked LOL) but yeah. that would be a factor.
As a HUGE Kyrie hater who REALLY didn't want him, he's been a remarkable turnaround in Dallas.
1. Healthy
2. Doesn't say idiotic things in press
3. Hasn't caused any disruptions
4. Knows how to play off a dominant wing
5. Healthy
There are no heroes in this comparison.
Major
Footballguy
All good points. I was just laughing about your efficiency matters quip
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I saw an article recently that said Jaylen Brown's contract is the worst in the NBA. They claimed that if the Celtics don't repeat or win another ring, Brown would likely be the main reason for it. So I decided to look into this.
Up until this point in the season, looking just at the Celtics roster, JB ranks 10th out of 10 BOS players that have played 500+ minutes in WS/48 (ranked 75th in the league). Last year,he ranked 10th out 10 BOS players that played 500+ minutes in WS/48 (ranked 67th in the league). In 2022-23, Brown ranked 10th out of 12 BOS players that played 500+ minutes (ranked 80th in the league) (ahead of Smart and Pritchard). If people were wondering, many of the other Celtics players did not qualify in the season ending rankings as they did not play enough minutes. On average these past 3 seasons, Brown has ranked 74th in WS/48. For that level of production, Brown was rewarded with All Star selections in all 3 of those seasons. He's the 10th highest paid player this year (and will move up to 6th next season).
Overall this year, BOS is 2.2 points better when JB is off the court. Last year, they were 7.7 points better when he was not on the court (7.5 points better in the playoffs . . . even though he was Conference Finals and Finals MVP). The season before 3.9 points better (7.1 points better in the playoffs). I saw a different article that suggested that Brown's mediocre play of late has been the biggest contributor to BOS being essentially a .500 team the past 2 months. I don't remember the exact number, but I believe BOS had a net rating of 12.5 points better when Brown wasn't playing in Dec and Jan.
Beyond this season, the Celtics are on the hook to pay Brown another $236M across 4 seasons (an average of $59M a year). The problem has been that JB has had many spectacular highlights, has been an aggressive alpha male, and played great in the clutch at times. He's also shown some great defense (which is what people seem to think he provides all the time). He's had games where he reeled off 5 straight threes and scored 15-20 points in a quarter. But then he'll have some ugly turnovers, will drive 1-on-3, will completely ignore his teammates, won't scored for 15 of game time, and play some uninspired defense. The best of Brown's game is worth the contract, but he doesn't play to that level enough (as evidenced by his numbers and analytics).
I'm not sure the Celtics would be able to move him as his contract is too much of a dead weight. BOS will have to do something, as after this year they are way into the tax. As a C's fan, I'd be fine if they moved him . . . others may have different opinions.
Up until this point in the season, looking just at the Celtics roster, JB ranks 10th out of 10 BOS players that have played 500+ minutes in WS/48 (ranked 75th in the league). Last year,he ranked 10th out 10 BOS players that played 500+ minutes in WS/48 (ranked 67th in the league). In 2022-23, Brown ranked 10th out of 12 BOS players that played 500+ minutes (ranked 80th in the league) (ahead of Smart and Pritchard). If people were wondering, many of the other Celtics players did not qualify in the season ending rankings as they did not play enough minutes. On average these past 3 seasons, Brown has ranked 74th in WS/48. For that level of production, Brown was rewarded with All Star selections in all 3 of those seasons. He's the 10th highest paid player this year (and will move up to 6th next season).
Overall this year, BOS is 2.2 points better when JB is off the court. Last year, they were 7.7 points better when he was not on the court (7.5 points better in the playoffs . . . even though he was Conference Finals and Finals MVP). The season before 3.9 points better (7.1 points better in the playoffs). I saw a different article that suggested that Brown's mediocre play of late has been the biggest contributor to BOS being essentially a .500 team the past 2 months. I don't remember the exact number, but I believe BOS had a net rating of 12.5 points better when Brown wasn't playing in Dec and Jan.
Beyond this season, the Celtics are on the hook to pay Brown another $236M across 4 seasons (an average of $59M a year). The problem has been that JB has had many spectacular highlights, has been an aggressive alpha male, and played great in the clutch at times. He's also shown some great defense (which is what people seem to think he provides all the time). He's had games where he reeled off 5 straight threes and scored 15-20 points in a quarter. But then he'll have some ugly turnovers, will drive 1-on-3, will completely ignore his teammates, won't scored for 15 of game time, and play some uninspired defense. The best of Brown's game is worth the contract, but he doesn't play to that level enough (as evidenced by his numbers and analytics).
I'm not sure the Celtics would be able to move him as his contract is too much of a dead weight. BOS will have to do something, as after this year they are way into the tax. As a C's fan, I'd be fine if they moved him . . . others may have different opinions.
the moops
Footballguy
If he is to be traded there would be 20+ teams lined up to send multiple first round picks for him.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't think so. The way the cap works now, hardly any teams could take on a $60M a year contract. And as I mentioned, his performance is not as one of the elite players in the league. I am sure teams would be willing to fork over picks for him, but the the salary matching rules would be difficult to fulfill. Most teams could not aggregate contracts to meet the requirement. I think it would be a lot tougher than you suggest.
Zow
Footballguy
Harden has changed his game this season and the Clippers are winning.
I think there was one spot for Harden, Kyrie, and Norm Powell and they were all similarly deserving. I like seeing new faces so I'd have gone with Powell.
I'm good with Sengun over Sabonis even though I think Sabonis is slightly more individually deserving because the Rockets need an all-star with how good they have been.
Kev4029
Footballguy
I don't think 20 teams would be interested but they would have no issues trading him in the off-season. The issue is that he is a very good player that can play both sides of the ball and kinda shoot and replacing that would be incredibly difficult as those players don't exactly grow on trees. Not having a player to attack defensively and a full time ability to play five out is what makes Boston great when they are great. I don't know who a value version of that player is that they could get. Keegan Murray?
There's nothing Sengun is doing better than Sabonis other than providing below average (as opposed bad, in Sabonis's case) rim defense. Sabonis is way more switchable on the perimeter which partially makes up for it. I like Sengun so I'm not that bent out of shape about it, but I made the mistake of listening to Nate Duncan the other day and I've been radicalized by the anti-Sabonis slander.
I think I mostly agree with this. His trade value is probably closer to KAT's than Mikal Bridges's, but there'd be takers.
Instinctive
Footballguy
You wrote a novel when "some idiotic article trying for clicks" would have done
But yeah I agree with you until the last paragraph. He'd be in Miami tomorrow, for example.
Kev4029
Footballguy
I have historically been a big Harden defender but he had no business making the all-star game. He is (arguably) the best offensive player on a bad offensive team and the worst defender on a good defensive team. The Clippers are #2 in Drtg and #21 in Ortg. Harden has a huge role in the offense and it is probably necessary for them but he has a TOV% of 19.6 (worst of his career, 7th worst in the NBA) and he is shooting less than 40% from the field (granted, his foul grifting is giving him a perfectly average TS%, but still). He's not a top 50 player in the NBA. Certainly not top 12 in the west.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I agree that there are likely several teams that would want Brown, but beyond the logistics of being able to take on his contract, I'm not sure how much teams would give for him (nor do I have any idea what BOS would take for him if they decided to try to move him). Here's the tale of the tape for JB so far this year . . . rankings based on qualified players only.
Scoring - 23.2 ppg (23rd)
Rebounds - 6.0 rpg (57th)
Assists - 4.8 apg (48th)
Steals - 1.2 spg (39th)
Blocks - 0.3 bpg (156th)
PER - 17.8 (54th)
3P% - .318 (156th)
eFG% - .506 (109th)
TS% - .544 (154th)
ORTG - 111 (134th)
DRTG - 112 (57th)
TOV% - 10.9% (80th)
WS - 3.4 (59th)
WS/48 - .113 (75th)
VORP - 0.7 (99th)
That's far from great. He ranks higher in counting stats based on the minutes he plays (21st) and his shot volume (11th). His All-Star selection undoubtedly was based on his awards from last post season, as his play so far this year really isn't worthy of a selection, IMO.
Scoring - 23.2 ppg (23rd)
Rebounds - 6.0 rpg (57th)
Assists - 4.8 apg (48th)
Steals - 1.2 spg (39th)
Blocks - 0.3 bpg (156th)
PER - 17.8 (54th)
3P% - .318 (156th)
eFG% - .506 (109th)
TS% - .544 (154th)
ORTG - 111 (134th)
DRTG - 112 (57th)
TOV% - 10.9% (80th)
WS - 3.4 (59th)
WS/48 - .113 (75th)
VORP - 0.7 (99th)
That's far from great. He ranks higher in counting stats based on the minutes he plays (21st) and his shot volume (11th). His All-Star selection undoubtedly was based on his awards from last post season, as his play so far this year really isn't worthy of a selection, IMO.
the moops
Footballguy
There are only 4 teams who are unable to aggregate salaries - teams that are in the 2nd apron. And one of those teams is Boston. So there are plenty of teams that can get to the 50+ million number (or even way less if they have cap space ot absorb the difference).
Two way wings who have all-NBA abilities are the single most coveted players in the league. I am not the biggest Brown fan, and he is having a down year for sure, but every team wants someone like him on their team - and very few have a player like him.
Even with his large salary, if he was put on the trading block, he would have plenty of suitors and Boston would get a complete haul for him
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Wathcing from a distance, it seems to me the narrative around Harden is changing and he's the one changing it. 35 years old in his 16th season and playing at an extremely high level, adjusting his role to fit team needs, busting his *** and destroying the historical tropes people have developed about him over the past several years.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Two years ago Celtic fans and the media. Brown is awful, we can't win with him.and you can't give a guy a max extension that dribble with his left hand.
Same people last year. Brown the best player on the Celtics, we wouldn't have won without him, trade Tatum he is the over rated one.
And then this year. Brown sucks, get rid of him, but we can't because no one would take him.
Same people last year. Brown the best player on the Celtics, we wouldn't have won without him, trade Tatum he is the over rated one.
And then this year. Brown sucks, get rid of him, but we can't because no one would take him.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
That may have been the case with casual fans and some members of the media, but I don't believe that was the case for people that really follow basketball. Tatum has always put up better overall numbers. But he's earned his stripes as being soft and not being an alpha, aggressive personality type. Brown is more that type of player, but his overall contributions have been lower than Tatum's. The stats have never supported Brown being better than Tatum.
Tatum's overall stats in the post season last year were better than Brown's, but Brown came up bigger in key moments. Tatum led Boston across the post season in points, rebounds, and assists (and in the finals as well). It was the first time a player on a winning team did that and didn't win finals MVP. There was a clear line in the sand last year when it came to balloting for the conference finals and finals. All the people that previously played the game voted for Tatum. All the members of the media that hadn't played basketball voted for Brown (and there were more media members in that category).
It is what it is. I still think Brown is a better version of Marcus Smart but with more shot attempts. Brown is a better shooter, but their advanced metrics aren't that far apart. Celtics fans loved Smart, but he's another player that was immensely popular but didn't put up huge efficiency numbers.
I was in the camp all along that Brown wasn't worth the contract he got . . . even before he got it. Did he play a key role in winning last year? Yup. Is he having one of the worst seasons of his career this year? Yup. Is the sky falling because of it? Probably not. Are the Celtics even considering moving him? Probably not. Would other teams be interest in acquiring him? Yup. Would someone put together a package that would get the Celtics interested in trading him? Who knows. But the Celtics are facing a $271M combined salary for next year with an additional $219M tax bill. I would be very surprised if next year's Celtics squad will have the same key pieces as this year's.
the moops
Footballguy
A much better version. Smart has a career TS% of .516. Jaylen .570. Smart is a 32% three point shooter. Jaylen 36%.
Smart had a great 2 or 3 year run where his defense was superb. But these two really aren't all that comparable
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