So let’s assume tOSU, Indiana and Oregon all make the playoffs. Does a fourth B1G team get in and if so, who is it?
Iowa after they clobber the toothless, punchless, rudderless Oregon offense in the cash & prizes.
Vertical passing game has vanished.
O-Line can't block.
Oregon has 2 more losses ahead of them.
There is the negative GM we will love. Oregon has never lost to an unranked team under Lanning. Where do you think the 2 losses are going to be to?
I understand you are frustrated with the offense lately and I get it we are spoiled. However, offense is still top 20 and defense is in top 5 playing lights out.
Iowa will beat them. Unless the figure out the vertical passing game in the bye week, that offense is stale. Wisconsin lived in the backfield. Iowa is a lot better defensively than the Badgers.
Oregon showed its true self against Indiana. This isn't a top 5 team. I don't think it's a top 10 team. The Penn State win means next to nothing now.
And Washington will beat them too. Or maybe USC, though at home, maybe the Ducks win a close one.
Oregon will be favored in every remaining game. Could they lose to Iowa, USC or Washington sure it is always possible but you are letting your emotions get the best of you. Iowa is a one dimensional team on offense and I trust Lanning to come up with a good game plan to stop the run. 21 points on offense by Oregon likely wins that game.
Washington lines will get overpowered by Oregon up front once again like last year. USC strength in passing goes against our strength on pass D where we are #1 in the country in several categories such as opponent passing yards per play.
All that being said I do agree this team has flaws and I think the best chance at a Championship is next year. I do believe Dante Moore will be back and the team is loaded with young talent.
Iowa has an exceptional defense. Oregon's offense - to date - has not performed well against good defenses. They got stymied by Indiana and an atrocious Wisconsin team gave them fits. Dante Moore was ineffective and this isn't the first time I've noticed his inability to push the ball down the field. That's a problem. If Will Stein wants a head coaching gig, he's got a hell of a way of showing it. That was pathetic. The Ducks had -3 yards at the end of the 1st quarter. At home. Against a dreadful team. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Again, you are focusing on only one side of the ball. Will Stein has had Heisman finalist QBs the past 2 years. Oregon is currently at #7 in SP+ ranking in offense and at #5 in defense. Iowa is at #47 at offense and #6 in defense.
In FEI ratings which take into account strength of schedule Oregon is #3 overall and #2 in offense and #4 in defense. Ohio State is #1 overall and Indiana #2. Iowa is #15 so yes they are no slouch. However they are #60 in offense and #7 in defense.
The fact that a strength of schedule analysis as you discuss in the last paragraph helps Oregon seems counterintuitive to me. And don’t get me wrong, I do not expect USC to win in Eugene or even come close. The Trojans are a deeply flawed team that is just abysmal on the road. I expect a double digit loss. But I do question your confidence on the Ducks’ remaining schedule given their schedule to date. You rattle off their offensive and defensive rankings, but who have they beaten? This is somewhat repeating a post upthread, but here are Oregon’s wins to date:
Non-conference:
1) Montana State - an FCS school
2) Oklahoma State - a 1-7 record and last place and winless in the Big 12 (only win over FCS Tennessee Martin) - coach fired mid-season
3) Oregon State - a 1-7 record (only win over FCS Lafayette Leopards) - coach fired mid-season
Conference:
4) Northwestern - 3-2 in Big 10 conference (5-3 overall) - maybe their best win?
5) Penn State - a double overtime win against 0-4/tied for last place in Big 10 conference (3-4 overall) - fired coach mid-season
6) Rutgers - 1-4 in Big 10 conference (4-4 overall)
7) Wisconsin - 0-5/tied for last place in Big 10 conference (2-6 overall).
So yeah, Oregon’s offensive and defensive rankings are really good, but look at the teams those stats were built up against.
All this said, I’m still betting on Oregon to win out and make the playoffs. But I’m not confident at all about it.