2025 FBG Subscriber Contest (21 Viewers)

[rzrback77]

Survival ability is better with larger rosters because the brother-in-law possibilities are significantly increased. But, you still need to have players that not just score, but score well. Total points on the season is a positive, but variant scoring is better.

A player who scores 7.0 every week for ten weeks posts 70 total points, but maybe never counted. However a player that posted 0 for seven weeks and 20-30-20 is significantly more useful.

And when you choose 29 players where 26 are regularly counting with individual scores between 15 and 25, then the zeroes don’t matter because their teammates covered for them.

Best ball golf - two guys can both shoot 90 and win if they each birdie seven holes even while posting multiple triple bogeys. You just can’t be bad together.

Winning requires more big scores piled together over the final weeks, but advancing needs the variant brother-in-law action.

Choosing more increases that opportunity, but you still must choose wisely.

Maybe somebody who enjoys digging could provide deviation scoring stats?

FYI - this is my favorite thread because more sensible posting and statistics are provided.

Thank you to the many that explain things here far better than I. And I am also thankful to the contestants who don’t read this thread as they often choose more poorly.

 

[ZWK]

TreVeyon Henderson rosters tended to be better built than the rosters without him.

Some comparisons of rosters with Henderson to rosters without him, mainly on features that I discussed in this earlier post:

+0.7 more players: 20.54 vs. 19.85 total players
+$1.8 more spending on flexable spots: $192.9 vs. $191.1 spent on RB+WR+TE
+1.0 more common players: 3.68 vs. 2.72 of the top 9 most commonly rostered non-Henderson players (JCM, Egbuka, etc.)
+12% more likely to have a sensible build by position: 70.0% vs. 57.8% had at least 2 rostered players for each starting slot, 12+ flexable players, $175+ flexable spending, and $249+ total spending


Here are the 10 players that were most overrepresented on TreVeyon Henderson rosters (the percentage of all Henderson rosters they were on minus the percentage of all non-Henderson rosters they were on):

+25.3% Emeka Egbuka
+19.5% Tyler Warren
+17.3% Ricky Pearsall
+16.3% Jacory Croskey-Merritt
+9.4% Matthew Golden
+8.8% Tetairoa McMillan
+8.6% Chase Brown
+8.0% Jordan Mason
+6.9% Cam Little
+6.7% Drake Maye

Pretty good group (and the next 10 are pretty good too).

 

[Jayrod]

Here are the 10 players that were most overrepresented on TreVeyon Henderson rosters (the percentage of all Henderson rosters they were on minus the percentage of all non-Henderson rosters they were on):

+25.3% Emeka Egbuka
+19.5% Tyler Warren
+17.3% Ricky Pearsall
+16.3% Jacory Croskey-Merritt
+9.4% Matthew Golden
+8.8% Tetairoa McMillan
+8.6% Chase Brown
+8.0% Jordan Mason
+6.9% Cam Little
+6.7% Drake Maye

Pretty good group (and the next 10 are pretty good too).

I have Henderson and 5 of those guys.

 

[BassNBrew]

TreVeyon Henderson rosters tended to be better built than the rosters without him.

Some comparisons of rosters with Henderson to rosters without him, mainly on features that I discussed in this earlier post:

+0.7 more players: 20.54 vs. 19.85 total players
+$1.8 more spending on flexable spots: $192.9 vs. $191.1 spent on RB+WR+TE
+1.0 more common players: 3.68 vs. 2.72 of the top 9 most commonly rostered non-Henderson players (JCM, Egbuka, etc.)
+12% more likely to have a sensible build by position: 70.0% vs. 57.8% had at least 2 rostered players for each starting slot, 12+ flexable players, $175+ flexable spending, and $249+ total spending


Here are the 10 players that were most overrepresented on TreVeyon Henderson rosters (the percentage of all Henderson rosters they were on minus the percentage of all non-Henderson rosters they were on):

+25.3% Emeka Egbuka
+19.5% Tyler Warren
+17.3% Ricky Pearsall
+16.3% Jacory Croskey-Merritt
+9.4% Matthew Golden
+8.8% Tetairoa McMillan
+8.6% Chase Brown
+8.0% Jordan Mason
+6.9% Cam Little
+6.7% Drake Maye

Pretty good group (and the next 10 are pretty good too).

Half are rookies. Rookies tend to be boom or bust with moderate prices

 

[jm192]

Great start for teams with Tre Henderson. There are over 500 of them

48%. That is insanity even when you consider the rookie fever that has inflected the pool.

Even crazier when you consider his limited usage the first 8 or 9 weeks of the sseason.

 

[jm192]

TreVeyon Henderson rosters tended to be better built than the rosters without him.

Some comparisons of rosters with Henderson to rosters without him, mainly on features that I discussed in this earlier post:

+0.7 more players: 20.54 vs. 19.85 total players
+$1.8 more spending on flexable spots: $192.9 vs. $191.1 spent on RB+WR+TE
+1.0 more common players: 3.68 vs. 2.72 of the top 9 most commonly rostered non-Henderson players (JCM, Egbuka, etc.)
+12% more likely to have a sensible build by position: 70.0% vs. 57.8% had at least 2 rostered players for each starting slot, 12+ flexable players, $175+ flexable spending, and $249+ total spending


Here are the 10 players that were most overrepresented on TreVeyon Henderson rosters (the percentage of all Henderson rosters they were on minus the percentage of all non-Henderson rosters they were on):

+25.3% Emeka Egbuka
+19.5% Tyler Warren
+17.3% Ricky Pearsall
+16.3% Jacory Croskey-Merritt
+9.4% Matthew Golden
+8.8% Tetairoa McMillan
+8.6% Chase Brown
+8.0% Jordan Mason
+6.9% Cam Little
+6.7% Drake Maye

Pretty good group (and the next 10 are pretty good too).

I have Egbuka, McMillan, Mason of that list to go along with Henderson.

 

[Puppies]

Here are the 10 players that were most overrepresented on TreVeyon Henderson rosters (the percentage of all Henderson rosters they were on minus the percentage of all non-Henderson rosters they were on):

+25.3% Emeka Egbuka
+19.5% Tyler Warren
+17.3% Ricky Pearsall
+16.3% Jacory Croskey-Merritt
+9.4% Matthew Golden
+8.8% Tetairoa McMillan
+8.6% Chase Brown
+8.0% Jordan Mason
+6.9% Cam Little
+6.7% Drake Maye

Pretty good group (and the next 10 are pretty good too).

I have Henderson and 5 of those guys.

I also had 5 of those guys, (Egbuka, Pearsall, Golden, JCM, and Chase Brown) but I did NOT have Henderson.

@ZWK I'd love to see the percentages also on: Troy Franklin, Keenan Allen, Kayshon Boutte, and Harold Fannin. That list pretty much rounds out my list of 'value players' that I have on my roster this year, and I'd be willing to bet at least a couple of them would also show up on the list.

 

[TheWinz]

Pretty good group (and the next 10 are pretty good too).

Current survival rate for all players is 10.35%. Here are the 5 players that were most common from the start:
5854 - RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt - 14.52% survival rate
5604 - WR Emeka Egbuka - 15.76% survival rate
4666 - WR Ricky Pearsall - 11.62% survival rate
4032 - RB Chase Brown - 12.87% survival rate
3508 - RB TreVeyon Henderson - 15.65% survival rate

All players above are surviving at a higher than normal rate, but only 1 of them is actually studly, and that's Egbuka. He's been worth every penny. As for the others:

JCM - Granted he was only $6, but how many useful weeks do you see from this list - 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 14, 28? Then again, for a mere $6, how many weeks can you reasonably expect to get out of a $6 RB? All-in-all, I think we all expected so much more. With no other information, if you saw his weekly scores and his $6 price tag, would you assume his survival rate would be so high? I don't consider him an awesome pick at all, although he was on my dead roster. Perhaps he can turn it around after 5 straight weeks of 7 or less.

Pearsall - First 4 weeks were good (2 very good scores and 2 usable), but a goose egg the next 6. Sure, we all know he was injured, but the contest doesn't care if you're injured or just plain suck. It doesn't differentiate. His survival rate has absolutely nothing to do with him. It looks like he's coming back in week 11, so his survival rate should improve.

Brown - At his $26 price, he's been a relative bust. He was priced as RB12, but so far he's scoring at RB24 rate. Anyone saying he's been a great value thus far is insane. Five straight weeks in single digits may be a record for a $26 RB. The masses did not choose wisely with him.

Henderson - This guy was more expensive than people think. $18 for a RB is 26th out of 90 RB's. And up until 2 weeks ago, he was RB37. Yes, he's been fantastic the last 2 weeks, but for the first 9 weeks, his scores were 0, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11. Do those weekly scores look like a guy you spent $18 on?

Let's face it - The masses chose poorly with the top 5 most common players. But survival rate and commonality go hand in hand, so many owners will refuse to say it. There were 640 folks who chose JCM, Pearsall, Brown, and Henderson, but not Egbuka. You would assume their survival rate would be below average right? Well, believe it or not, their survival rate is higher than Egbuka himself. Way higher in fact - it's 22.34%!

 

[Jayrod]

Pretty good group (and the next 10 are pretty good too).

Current survival rate for all players is 10.35%. Here are the 5 players that were most common from the start:
5854 - RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt - 14.52% survival rate
5604 - WR Emeka Egbuka - 15.76% survival rate
4666 - WR Ricky Pearsall - 11.62% survival rate
4032 - RB Chase Brown - 12.87% survival rate
3508 - RB TreVeyon Henderson - 15.65% survival rate

All players above are surviving at a higher than normal rate, but only 1 of them is actually studly, and that's Egbuka. He's been worth every penny. As for the others:

JCM - Granted he was only $6, but how many useful weeks do you see from this list - 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 14, 28? Then again, for a mere $6, how many weeks can you reasonably expect to get out of a $6 RB? All-in-all, I think we all expected so much more. With no other information, if you saw his weekly scores and his $6 price tag, would you assume his survival rate would be so high? I don't consider him an awesome pick at all, although he was on my dead roster. Perhaps he can turn it around after 5 straight weeks of 7 or less.

Pearsall - First 4 weeks were good (2 very good scores and 2 usable), but a goose egg the next 6. Sure, we all know he was injured, but the contest doesn't care if you're injured or just plain suck. It doesn't differentiate. His survival rate has absolutely nothing to do with him. It looks like he's coming back in week 11, so his survival rate should improve.

Brown - At his $26 price, he's been a relative bust. He was priced as RB12, but so far he's scoring at RB24 rate. Anyone saying he's been a great value thus far is insane. Five straight weeks in single digits may be a record for a $26 RB. The masses did not choose wisely with him.

Henderson - This guy was more expensive than people think. $18 for a RB is 26th out of 90 RB's. And up until 2 weeks ago, he was RB37. Yes, he's been fantastic the last 2 weeks, but for the first 9 weeks, his scores were 0, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11. Do those weekly scores look like a guy you spent $18 on?

Let's face it - The masses chose poorly with the top 5 most common players. But survival rate and commonality go hand in hand, so many owners will refuse to say it. There were 640 folks who chose JCM, Pearsall, Brown, and Henderson, but not Egbuka. You would assume their survival rate would be below average right? Well, believe it or not, their survival rate is higher than Egbuka himself. Way higher in fact - it's 22.34%!

I own all 5 of those guys and am still alive

I think what this says is that these owners dug in on their research to find value and while these particular guys didn't pan out, some of their others did.

My QB trio of Rodgers, Darnold and Tua have been great, averaging over 30 ppg. JCN has been amazing as well as value picks like Troy Franklin and Keenan Allen.

Any well thought out roster will likely have some misses. Spreading them out, watching byes and avoiding big money busts can make up for some misses.

 

[TheWinz]

Pretty good group (and the next 10 are pretty good too).

Current survival rate for all players is 10.35%. Here are the 5 players that were most common from the start:
5854 - RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt - 14.52% survival rate
5604 - WR Emeka Egbuka - 15.76% survival rate
4666 - WR Ricky Pearsall - 11.62% survival rate
4032 - RB Chase Brown - 12.87% survival rate
3508 - RB TreVeyon Henderson - 15.65% survival rate

All players above are surviving at a higher than normal rate, but only 1 of them is actually studly, and that's Egbuka. He's been worth every penny. As for the others:

JCM - Granted he was only $6, but how many useful weeks do you see from this list - 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 14, 28? Then again, for a mere $6, how many weeks can you reasonably expect to get out of a $6 RB? All-in-all, I think we all expected so much more. With no other information, if you saw his weekly scores and his $6 price tag, would you assume his survival rate would be so high? I don't consider him an awesome pick at all, although he was on my dead roster. Perhaps he can turn it around after 5 straight weeks of 7 or less.

Pearsall - First 4 weeks were good (2 very good scores and 2 usable), but a goose egg the next 6. Sure, we all know he was injured, but the contest doesn't care if you're injured or just plain suck. It doesn't differentiate. His survival rate has absolutely nothing to do with him. It looks like he's coming back in week 11, so his survival rate should improve.

Brown - At his $26 price, he's been a relative bust. He was priced as RB12, but so far he's scoring at RB24 rate. Anyone saying he's been a great value thus far is insane. Five straight weeks in single digits may be a record for a $26 RB. The masses did not choose wisely with him.

Henderson - This guy was more expensive than people think. $18 for a RB is 26th out of 90 RB's. And up until 2 weeks ago, he was RB37. Yes, he's been fantastic the last 2 weeks, but for the first 9 weeks, his scores were 0, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11. Do those weekly scores look like a guy you spent $18 on?

Let's face it - The masses chose poorly with the top 5 most common players. But survival rate and commonality go hand in hand, so many owners will refuse to say it. There were 640 folks who chose JCM, Pearsall, Brown, and Henderson, but not Egbuka. You would assume their survival rate would be below average right? Well, believe it or not, their survival rate is higher than Egbuka himself. Way higher in fact - it's 22.34%!

I own all 5 of those guys and am still alive

I think what this says is that these owners dug in on their research to find value and while these particular guys didn't pan out, some of their others did.

My QB trio of Rodgers, Darnold and Tua have been great, averaging over 30 ppg. JCN has been amazing as well as value picks like Troy Franklin and Keenan Allen.

Any well thought out roster will likely have some misses. Spreading them out, watching byes and avoiding big money busts can make up for some misses.

My point was, only 1 of the 5 most common players has so far been excellent. As for your specific team, I would argue your best RB thus far has been Woody Marks, with just as many double digit games as any other on your team, yet he was your 5th most expensive RB. If you had spent the $61 on players other than JCM/Pearsall/Brown/Henderson, I would guess you would prefer your team (well, maybe not now, since a few of them are now awakening).