Current contest survival rate is 7.25%
The top scoring duos at each position are:
QB - 12.50% - Josh Allen/Drake Maye - $43
RB - 31.82% - Jonathan Taylor/Christian McCaffrey - $61
WR - 7.02% - Jaxon Smith-Njigba/Ja'Marr Chase - $61
TE - 10.00% - Trey McBride/Jake Ferguson - $45
PK - 12.50% - Cameron Dicker/Jason Myers - $11
TD - 0.00% - Seattle Seahawks/Houston Texans - $12
32% with cmac and jt is impressive
I may be one of a select few who still thinks rostering 2 expensive RB's is the way to go. And by expensive, I mean spending at least $20 on each of them. You can survive and thrive spending $70 rostering 10 low-priced WR's, but it would take a miracle to do the same with RB's.
Apparently I am as well, since I spent $26, $26, and $18 on my top 3 RBs.
Here's why I think you should roster at least 2 decent RBs even if you go for a large roster (25 players or more in this contest). I rostered 29 players this year.
If you look at the overall field of contest entries, the vast majority of them are small roster teams (68.4% of this year's entries had 20 players or less) and I suspect included top dollar RBs as well as top dollar players at other positions. So there is likely going to be high ownership of top dollar running backs in this contest regardless of their cost, even though they have the lowest return on cap dollar investment of all positions in this contest.
But that said, many of those top RBs are going to score points, so I think you have to play along and roster a couple decent RBs yourself in order to stay competitive in this contest. But at other skill positions (WR, TE, QB), I think the chances are better to find cheaper players that are likely to break out. This also includes grabbing a bargain RB or two if the roster makeup suggests they might end up being a starter, or otherwise having a larger role than anticipated due to backing up an injury-prone starter.
Where I differ with the small roster strategy is in the reality that other positions offer much better ROI per cap dollar, so I have always tried to get at least one decent player at each of the other skill positions, and then spend the rest of my cap money on value players that research indicates have a good likelihood of out-playing their cap cost. This also gives a better chance of longer survival because as injuries happen, the smaller roster teams take a larger hit when a rostered player gets injured, than a larger roster that has several extra players at that position.
This year I had 3 QB, 5RB, 11 WR, 4 TE, 3 PK, and 3 DEF.
I went 2 QB, 5 RB, 8 WR, 3 TE, 3 PK, and 3 DEF. I agree with pretty much everything you said. In hindsight, I picked poorly on my $57 RB duo of Derrick Henry/Chase Brown, but they weren't the reason I got eliminated in week 10. Actually, they've been pretty decent the last handful of weeks. Sure, there were a bunch of better combos for around the same price that I would've preferred, but I don't regret taking them. I also rostered 3 "expensive" RB, as my RB3 was $19 Harvey.
I need to do a better job digging through the bargain bin at WR. I only rostered 3 WR's under $10. I spent $79, but to look at my roster, it feels more like $59. It's so much easier to find value in cheap WR's vs RB's, and it's not like they are needed to score every week. A $2 WR like Kayshon Boutte is totally worth it, when you see he got 4 weekly scores of 13+. Who cares if he gets a donut in the other 8 weeks? You roster lots of cheapie WR's in hopes of getting 2 usable weekly scores, and possibly some flex scores. Here is an 10 WR roster you could've had:
WR - Andrei Iosivas - CIN/10 - $8
WR - Marquise Brown - KC/10 - $6
WR - Romeo Doubs - GB/5 - $6
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/8 - $6
WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/12 - $5
WR - Tre Tucker - LV/8 - $5
WR - Mack Hollins - NE/14 - $3
WR - Troy Franklin - DEN/12 - $3
WR - Elic Ayomanor - TEN/10 - $2
WR - Kayshon Boutte - NE/14 - $2
With the above, your weekly scores would've been:
Week 1 - 19 and 19 (flex scores of 16 and 13)
Week 2 - 24 and 17 (flex scores of 15 and 11)
Week 3 - 40 and 19 (flex score of 13)
Week 4 - 29 and 12
Week 5 - 13 and 11 (flex score of 10)
Week 6 - 26 and 20 (flex scores of 12 and 10)
Week 7 - 28 and 13 (flex scores of 13 and 10)
Week 8 - 26 and 16 (flex score of 15)
Week 9 - 18 and 16
Week 10 - 16 and 15
Week 11 - 33 and 14 (flex scores of 12 and 10)
Week 12 - 21 and 10
Of course I cherry-picked, but I challenge anyone to find $44 worth of single digit $$ RB's where you get double digit scores from 2 of them each week, let alone another 13 double digit flex scores.