ICON211
Footballguy
That Crosby extension is going to look pretty bad when we could have let him walk in a couple years and gotten a third round comp pick instead.
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2025 Las Vegas Raiders thread - ☠ Jersey number is SRS BZNS ☠ (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter Hankmoody
- Start date
LawFitz
Footballguy
It's not just comp picks. It's also cap space better used elsewhere than overpaying the Moerhigs of the world. You re-sign the Crosbys, of course, and also the Spillanes and Butlers, within reason for the latter tho. But you draft, develop and let the Moerhigs go, then use the dollars saved on better talent and the extra picks on young talent. Niners, Ravens, Rams and others following this formula oh so well.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Leonard Floyd released. A fit to replace Deablo?
LawFitz
Footballguy
Plays Edge I thought. He'd be a Chiasson replacement, if so.
Would rather have Chiasson.
Chaka
Footballguy
Finding better players for less money isn't an exact science.
But I agree that staying away from the overspending frenzy of day one of FA is a smart move.
Still the Raiders lost a lot of players on defense that they were allegedly very motivated to keep.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Not focused on them, if we can sign good players this year I'm all for that. Hell last week I said we likely weren't in the comp pick market this year because we need to shore up the roster first. But the bolded is the key - if they help the team. What I'm against is signing a donkey like Elandon Roberts that cancels out a decent pick. If we lose Spillane and bring in a guy like Patrick Queen last year and lose the comp pick as a result that's fine by me.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It's close enough, they are in the same band and do cancel each other out.
Yep, exactly where I was. I'd have taken Moehring too but he got a lot of money. I'm surprised Hobbs got as much as he did. Koonce was much cheaper than I thought. I've seen a couple different number on Spillane, OTC has him at $11M which i think I'd rather keep him for.
lakerstan
Footballguy
4.24 speed when drafted, but frequently injured. They could just bring in multiple high potential guys on the cheap and let them compete for the job, hoping to hit the lotto, but I would prefer proven commodities - particularly with all that salary cap space.
Chaka
Footballguy
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ICON211
Footballguy
Maybe I'm wrong and you're right, but I don't believe every FA signing factors into the comp pick formula. I read only certain FA signings count, larger ones, and a signing like Roberts would not even facor in.
Chaka
Footballguy
Under the premise that some players need more time to develop and/or learn how to stay healthy, dude is a former first round pick. Can't hate the move at that price.
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Chadstroma
Footballguy
No one knows the exact formula outside of the NFL offices
Hankmoody
Footballguy
The top 35% count, so around 700, but playing time factors in too. Right now Roberts would count, he'll likely drop off once more guys sign, but Stokes is on the chart too. Last year's cutoff was right around $3M with no playing time bump. We do still have some lower guys that can offset the Stokes/Roberts picks but if we keep signing these bottom tier guys it's gonna cost us nice picks. I don't mind losing the comp picks, they aren't until 2026 so F them, but if that's gonna happen let's get players that can actually contribute. Charles Omenihu , Rasul Douglass, Stefon Diggs, Cam Robinson - there are nice guys out there. Heck I'd have been ok with Justin Reid at $10M canceling out the pick from Spillane, at least that's a guy that will see the field. If we're gonna cancel out the comp picks make it for those guys.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It's nearly 100% predictable at this point, OTC has it down pat.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yeah I specifically called this one out in my FA primer last week, I'd love him to replace Moehring/upgrade the other S spot.
Chaka
Footballguy
He seems to be a mostly replacement level player IMO and he hasn't been able to play more than 11 games in three seasons.
For the right price with an easy out he'd be a fine signing.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Nevermind... signed with the Falcons
Chadstroma
Footballguy
To be fair.... had not heard of Spillane until we signed him either.Never heard of Elandon Roberts. Mattydubs seems to like him... Looks good in these clips.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
No clue who this is but Roberts' logged under 50% snap count last year and they didn't even offer him a contract to return. When a guy signs a bottom dollar deal it's not because someone else was offering him more. Don't get me wrong, I like the addition and have been harping on getting more NFL caliber depth on the roster, but we need to keep working here. Kyzir White, EJ Speed, Eric Kendriks, these guys were very productive and can be had for mid-market deals. Tyrell Dodson played for SEA and would be a good plug.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I don't recall the Steelers fighting to keep Spillane either
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Be careful with him. Besides his injuries the last few years (& there have been a lot), he was a healthy scratch the last month and a half. I don't know what he did, but Baltimore didn't mess around - they basically kicked him off of the team.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yeah that's what teams do when they have better options. We don't. I wouldn't be expecting a pro bowl, but right now our starters are bleak. I'll take a veteran guy that can come in, compete, and maybe offer up an upgrade. Worst case he's better depth than we already have.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I'm sure any teams interested will be talking to the Ravens about what happened with Williams. It could be something as simple as he & his position coach didn't get along, and that he just needs a fresh start.
LawFitz
Footballguy
If the Raiders are indeed employing a strategy of maximizing draft picks, a related thought could be to trade a player like Mayer, who may be worth more to other teams right now. And/or actively looking to trade down in the draft.
Also, Cooper Kupp and/or Tyler Lockett signing(s) would not count against the comp pick allocations, since they were cut. Decision tree then is not just Kupp/Lockett vs. another FA WR in terms of dollars alone. Kupp/Lockett also comes with not losing mid-round picks next year. If their market doesn't materialize, a team-friendly yr to yr deal for one or even both of these dudes could make a ton of sense, assuming they still have some juice remaining.
Also, Cooper Kupp and/or Tyler Lockett signing(s) would not count against the comp pick allocations, since they were cut. Decision tree then is not just Kupp/Lockett vs. another FA WR in terms of dollars alone. Kupp/Lockett also comes with not losing mid-round picks next year. If their market doesn't materialize, a team-friendly yr to yr deal for one or even both of these dudes could make a ton of sense, assuming they still have some juice remaining.
LawFitz
Footballguy
On a team-friendly yr-to-yr deal, yes.
Chaka
Footballguy
Yes. And Tyler Lockett.
I doubt either would be incredibly expensive and it would go a long way to shoring up the WR room in the near term. Geno needs more targets.
LawFitz
Footballguy
49ers have this system working wonders...
They now have five 2026 mid-round comp picks lined up with the departures below this offseason, which is remarkable. What's even more so is where these players were acquired. Moore, Greenlaw, Hufanga - all 5th rounders. Ward, a gem of a prior UFA signing. Even Banks is good business when you consider he played out a cheap rookie deal and will now bring in a 3rd/4th round comp pick on his way out.
QB Joshua Dobbs (New England Patriots) - UFA 2024 - $4 MM AAV
OL Aaron Banks (Green Bay Packers) - 2nd rd 2021 - $19 MM
OL Jaylon Moore (Kansas City Chiefs) - 5th rd 2021 - $15 MM
RB Elijah Mitchell (Kansas City Chiefs) - 6th rd 2021 - $3 MM
CB Charvarius Ward (Indianapolis Colts) - UFA 2022 3/$42 - $20 MM
LB Dre Greenlaw (Denver Broncos) - 5th rd 2019 - $13 MM
S Talanoa Hufanga (Denver Broncos) - 5th rd 2021 - $15 MM
Key to all of it though, is of course, drafting well and developing players.
They now have five 2026 mid-round comp picks lined up with the departures below this offseason, which is remarkable. What's even more so is where these players were acquired. Moore, Greenlaw, Hufanga - all 5th rounders. Ward, a gem of a prior UFA signing. Even Banks is good business when you consider he played out a cheap rookie deal and will now bring in a 3rd/4th round comp pick on his way out.
QB Joshua Dobbs (New England Patriots) - UFA 2024 - $4 MM AAV
OL Aaron Banks (Green Bay Packers) - 2nd rd 2021 - $19 MM
OL Jaylon Moore (Kansas City Chiefs) - 5th rd 2021 - $15 MM
RB Elijah Mitchell (Kansas City Chiefs) - 6th rd 2021 - $3 MM
CB Charvarius Ward (Indianapolis Colts) - UFA 2022 3/$42 - $20 MM
LB Dre Greenlaw (Denver Broncos) - 5th rd 2019 - $13 MM
S Talanoa Hufanga (Denver Broncos) - 5th rd 2021 - $15 MM
Key to all of it though, is of course, drafting well and developing players.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
Jeanty or McMillan at 1.06? I know some of you want an O lineman but I can't help think back to when we took a highly touted LT at 1.02 and passed on a talented WR out of Pitt
I would only want to prioritize position at pick 1.6 if getting a comparable stud. If there isn't a comparable stud OL, go with the beast RB as BPA. Positional value only goes so far, especially at that front end of the draft. Most important is to get studs with those picks, regardless of position.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I am not going to say it will not happen but from my understanding of the system Chip runs and what he is looking for in a WR, I don't think it is fit. Lockett seems more of a fit even without the Carroll connection.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
What the hell do I know.... Tashan is reporting interest from the Raiders if the price is right
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Since there is so much RB talent available in this draft, I would pass on Jeanty at 1.06 and take a RB in round 2.Jeanty or McMillan at 1.06? I know some of you want an O lineman but I can't help think back to when we took a highly touted LT at 1.02 and passed on a talented WR out of Pitt
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
That was the same talking point when the Lions drafted Gibbs. 
And, some consider Jeanty better than Gibbs.
And, some consider Jeanty better than Gibbs.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
My sense is the overwhelming consensus is he better.That was the same talking point when the Lions drafted Gibbs.
And, some consider Jeanty better than Gibbs.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
CJ Mosley released. Inside LB. Wrong side of 32 and coming off an injury plagued season but could be a good vet addition as insurance and depth.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Comp summary for 2026 picks so far:
PIT - 3rd 4th 6th 6th
PHI - 3rd 4th 6th
MIN - 3rd
SFO - 4th 4th 4th
LVR - 4th 5th
NOS - 4th 7th
BAL - 5th 5th
NYJ - 4th
DAL, LAC - 5th
LAR - 6th 7th
GBP, KCC, DEN - 7th
If we get someone to sign Epps or someone else to cancel out that Stokes deal we'll pick up another 5th. Stokes may end up dropping out of the formula by the time it's over anyway, playing time can make a big difference (it dropped Wilkins down a band and cost MIA a 3rd, they got a 4th instead, huge hit) or even by salary (doubtful) so we have a shot at three extra picks next year.
I'm guessing we're done for now, if we were going to sign guys I think we would have. There are guys that were cut that aren't part of the formula I think we should get aggressive for, in particular Kupp and Lockett. We didn't get any significant help on the OL, we're going to have to draft and/or coach that up again.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2025/status/available/sort/contract_value - this is cool because they have a Market Value tool that gives a (very rough) estimate of what guys might get. They had Moehring at $16M and Koonce at $18M so obviously there's some guesswork involved but I guarantee you there were fewer than 4 people in the world that thought Dan Moore would get north of $20M a year and all of them had last names starting with Moore.
Cam Robinson would cost us one of those comp picks but who cares, for the price of a future 5th it's a good investment.
PIT - 3rd 4th 6th 6th
PHI - 3rd 4th 6th
MIN - 3rd
SFO - 4th 4th 4th
LVR - 4th 5th
NOS - 4th 7th
BAL - 5th 5th
NYJ - 4th
DAL, LAC - 5th
LAR - 6th 7th
GBP, KCC, DEN - 7th
If we get someone to sign Epps or someone else to cancel out that Stokes deal we'll pick up another 5th. Stokes may end up dropping out of the formula by the time it's over anyway, playing time can make a big difference (it dropped Wilkins down a band and cost MIA a 3rd, they got a 4th instead, huge hit) or even by salary (doubtful) so we have a shot at three extra picks next year.
I'm guessing we're done for now, if we were going to sign guys I think we would have. There are guys that were cut that aren't part of the formula I think we should get aggressive for, in particular Kupp and Lockett. We didn't get any significant help on the OL, we're going to have to draft and/or coach that up again.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2025/status/available/sort/contract_value - this is cool because they have a Market Value tool that gives a (very rough) estimate of what guys might get. They had Moehring at $16M and Koonce at $18M so obviously there's some guesswork involved but I guarantee you there were fewer than 4 people in the world that thought Dan Moore would get north of $20M a year and all of them had last names starting with Moore.
Cam Robinson would cost us one of those comp picks but who cares, for the price of a future 5th it's a good investment.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't pretend to know the quality of players coming out of college. Maybe there is a Malik Nabers type that would be available at #6 and I would be thrilled to take that player. But, ATM on offense the positions of biggest need are WR & OL, with a nod to RB. I don't see any OL who move the needle available ATM but Jacobi, Bowers, Kupp & Lockett makes the passing group look a whole lot better for 2025.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I keep getting tempted to pull the draft into here but am avoiding that as much as possible. Draft isn't for filling need, that's what March is for. The draft should be about getting the best guy as that spot. Right now we need to focus on needs, which are (everywhere) mostly playmakers on O and OL. Anyone that can help should be brought in, but I don't think there's much impact left out there. Stefon Diggs would be interesting as long as it's not a huge deal. Kupp's Market Value on OTC (again, huge guess/range/margin for error) is $11M and I'd go for that in a flash.
But to answer your question there are a ton of impact WR. None I'd like to see us take at #6, I hope we trade down, but let's say we move to #21 so PIT can draft Shedeur and we land Matthew Golden or Luther Burden. Even better, Isaiah Bond seems to be getting a lot of h8 out there but I think that's a big mistake and if that guy gets into the mid-2nd or later he's gonna be a steal. I love the 2/3 swing in this draft and if we trade down and pull Bond and Henderson with the bonus picks I think I'll faint.
LawFitz
Footballguy
If I am the Raiders, I give him maximum two years in guarantees, with the amounts revolving around what he's owed this year ($31 MM) + the non-exclusive franchise tag figure for 2026 (~$40 MM)... So somewhere around ~$70-75 MM guaranteed for two years, then yr-to-yr team options from there on out. Give him a hard deadline and tell him if he doesn't take it, negotiations are off until next offseason, at which point, you maintain and reserve the right to mushroom slap him with the franchise tag, resulting in him getting exactly what you are offering to fully guarantee now - or perhaps nothing close in 2026 if he flops/gets injured and you punt instead next offseason. Don't make the mistake the Bronkies made with Russ Wilson and pay him a monster before he takes the field - there is no need to overcommit at this stage.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
I would have liked signing Rico Dowdle to the 1/$6.5 MM deal he got from the Panthers. The draft is deep in RBs, but there's something to be said about a young and hungry veteran riser like Dowdle - especially on a cheap one-year deal to allow a couple rookie RBs to settle in, compete and grow beside him. Dowdle would have been a legit upgrade to Zeus in such a role.
ETA: Raiders RB corps is a mess. Only one to even remotely look decent last year was oldie Abdullah. There is room for wholesale change here.
ETA: Raiders RB corps is a mess. Only one to even remotely look decent last year was oldie Abdullah. There is room for wholesale change here.
SDJohnny
Footballguy
Raiders signing RB Raheem Mostert to one-year, $2.1M deal. (via
@cameronwolfe)
@cameronwolfe)
LawFitz
Footballguy
Looked washed last season at 32 - fell off a cliff in fantasy stats as well. Not a fan of this signing unless there is zero guaranteed.
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