Direct Headline:
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
But the problem isn’t just that the national polls at this stage in the race lack empirical power to predict the nomination; it’s also that they describe a fiction....What about being a jerk? If you can make yourself the center of attention — and no candidate in modern memory has been more skilled at that than Trump — you can potentially turn the polls into a referendum on your candidacy.
By Nate Silver
Aug. 11, 2015, at 10:31 AM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination/
Direct Headline: Who’s Winning the Presidential Campaign?
“Since 1980,
the single best predictor of a party’s nominee is the number of endorsements from party elites — elected officials and prominent past party leaders — in the months before primaries begin...”...
NY Times
Sept. 15, 2015
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html
Direct Headline:
Why Trump Will Never Make the Ballot
Making political predictions rarely turns out well, but here’s one: Donald Trump will not be a candidate for president in 2016.....First is the essential question: Will Donald Trump be the next president of the United States? No.
Stuart Stevens
Aug. 20, 2015 6:15AM ET
https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-trump-will-never-make-the-ballot
Direct Headline: Early polls don’t mean much. It’s still possible to report on them.
Here’s the problem. We know from presidential general elections that polling this early is not correlated with outcomes in November. We know from presidential primary elections that poll surges are often ephemeral, in part because they reflect how the media covers primary candidates. For both reasons, we should discount where the candidates stand in current polls. In fact, it could easily be the case that current polls tell us almost nothing about where the presidential primary or general election will end up...But it does seem to me that the sheer volume of coverage is vastly out of proportion to the value of these polls.
By John Sides
July 27, 2015
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/07/27/early-polls-dont-mean-much-its-still-possible-to-report-on-them/
******
The modern current polling industry is dead. Political forecasting in the new "cancel culture woke" environment is now dead. Those idiots have not a single clue what they are talking about and now that's been nationally exposed in the last two cycles.
Trump was leading in the polling in 2015 and you can see the bias dripping out from all the evaluations of him by "pundits" as they panned his chances. Now when it serves their agenda, his chances currently are great despite
BEING THREE YEARS OUT. The narrative shifts to whatever best fulfills more Orange/Man/Bad.
The only thing this current administration has left in it's quiver for the next three years is J6. And they will bang that drum as loudly as they can as this administration sinks further and further into ineptness and chaos.
Some of you radical leftists in here can't have it both ways. You can't keep banging the J6 drum and
keep saying how Trump tried to hijack democracy and then pretend that's not a widespread narrative and media optics focus just long enough for Trump to overcome BEING DEPLATFORMED FROM BIG SOCIAL MEDIA and DEMONETIZED BY BIG MONEY CORPORATE DONORS to win the ticket in 2024 just to get beaten by whatever the Democratic Party can scratch together for a candidate ( At this point and time, likely Newsom or Abrams)
2015 -
Trump is leading in the polls and is getting massive media coverage - but we hate Trump so it doesn't matter and screw him and all is lost for him!
Aiming for the 2024 general cycle - T
rump is leading in the polls ( that average a whopping SIX PERCENT TOTAL RETURN ON CONVERTED ENGAGEMENT ), never mind all we've said about J6 and his pandemic response and demonizing him as a white nationalist on nearly every major activist complicit MSM outlet - but we hate Trump so it doesn't matter and screw him and all is NOT lost for him just long enough for him to crawl his way up to lose!
Nothing is more ridiculous than watching the woke cancel culture radical leftist zealots and low information voters here attempt to push how Trump can win the 2024 RNC ticket WITHOUT saying one good thing about him that will appeal to primary voters. The common thread seems to be that Conservative and Republican voters are blind, stupid and cultists as the only explanation possible. Then later when they are approached by something that can't be defensible with their tribalism, they shout, "Let's be better! Why must there be so much division!"
YOU CAN'T TOUT TRUMP AS WINNING THE 2024 NOMINATION AND ALSO AVOID DISCUSSING ANYTHING POLICY RELATED (2016-20) THAT WOULD BE SEEN AS A POSITIVE FOR HIM.
. They get him back and maybe they save themselves from the disaster they are now. 
or don’t put words in other posters mouths please. TIA. 
