You are asserting that the consensus ratings are correct and using those is the only way to get value without allowing for an individual evaluation to be used.
The OP post that started this was whether or not to take Cook a round earlier than ADP. Your position is that should never be done because you should take consensus picks with those ADP values of 1st rounders otherwise you lose too much value.
My counter to that is the value is not known until the season is over and if you believe a player will perform to that value and you want to ensure you get them because your evaluations don't match the consensus then you should have confidence in your evaluation and take the player ahead of ADP. This also makes the assumption the players likely to be available at the 2nd round pick are well below the "reach player" in your own evaluations.
I think we are saying the same thing in general. While you are saying base it solely on ADP and consensus rankings, I am saying to incorporate your own evaluation and trust it to get you the value you believe to be true separately from the masses.
Your process eliminates individual evaluation for the most part. You are stating consensus rankings and ADP (which may be the same as your independent evaluation) are the only way to draft to get value. I disagree. I allow for an owner to commit to their own evaluation (which may or may not be the same as the consensus) and if it does not match consensus you should trust yourself and "reach if you think it is warranted.
The process is the same but the rankings being used are different.
No, I’m speaking to draft philosophy.
So far the philosophical questions are
1. Do you reach for a 2nd round RB as a top 5 pick?
2. Do you reach (a little less) for a TE as a top 5 pick?
while both answers require evaluation of consensus ADP, personal and public rankings/projections, both of these questions are, at their core, philosophical in nature.
Because, as you correctly state, we don’t now what the future holds. Any player can break out & any player can bust.
But what we do know is history. We can see how players have performed relative to their draft positions. We know that in his prime, Gronk was arguably worthy of being selected 1.09-1.12, but some managers (like me) still wouldn’t do it because our draft philosophy was to wait on a TE.
there’s no “correct” answer. You’re not wrong, I’m not right - we’re just answering a random question with our own personal belief.
We can defend those beliefs with vague generalizations, or we can defend them from historic data. We can even defend them with personal experience.
There are known factors with a snake draft. there are so many players in each tier, and depth relative to positions is worthy of consideration.
Thats why QB free fall & zero RB are popular these days. Folks started to notice that a 10th round QB can perform at 80% of a 3rd round QB. So they wait hoping to land that 10th round target while stacking up at other positions.
the same case can be made for taking Kelce at the back of the 1st round. Or one could argue that they’re gaining such an advantage at TE over the rest of the league that it’s worth the hit one would potentially take at WR or RB. Something’s gotta give - you’re waiting until rounds 2-3 for those positions if you commit to a TE early.
And since another known factor is ADP (roughly) we need to include that in the evaluation of that draft philosophy.
IF someone takes Kelce at 1.10, that’s 4 picks until their RB1 or WR1. They could get a relatively safe, high upside WR1 or RB1 at 2.03
but IF someone takes Kelce at 1.05, now they’re waiting until 2.08, which takes another 5 players off the board - 99% likely to be WRs & RBs. And then that team’s WR1 or RB1 is a 3rd rounder, likely a 2nd or 3rd tier player at their position.
I am not saying it can’t work. I’m just saying it could decrease the advantage Kelce gives you (relative to otter TEs) as compared to the now potentially greater drop-off at RB or WR your team will invariably suffer as a result.
Now all that said, we don’t know how that draft will unfold. We also don’t know if that manager will hit on every sleeper/upside pick. It is certainly possible that team Kelce 1.05 lands a 1st tier WR in round 2, and a RB in round 3 who finishes top 5.
Thats the dream, right?
but it’s more likely that a fantasy manager hits on a top 2 WR by taking a blue chip WR at 1.05, and it’s more likely to land a top 8 RB at 2.08, and then take Ertz or OJ in the 3rd.
and in that scenario it’s also possible that one of the TEs not named Kelce finishes closer to Kelce than projections have it - because as you say several times - we just don’t know how these players will actually perform.
Its all just like; our opinions, maaaan. But if we’re discussing reaching for a player or a position early in the draft, it’s largely philosophical. Which is a much better process than closing our eyes & throwing darts at a draft board.
(Which would actually be a super funny way to host a league)
