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Am I crazy for considering Cook at 1.5? (4 Viewers)
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Go back a few pages. I’ve already posted my rant on that line of thinking.Of course we don’t. But we do know Cook’s been hurt a few times.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree with much of what you said there.
all I meant is that it’s only game 3, and the reason Cook was a pre-draft bargain was the perception that he’s injury prone.
so if he gets hurt, you just know there’ll be people coming out of the woodwork saying “see, I told you he was gonna get hurt.”
I am not one of those people. I’m just sayin that it’s gonna happen if he does.
bostonfred
Footballguy
That's always part of the process. Every player has good points and every player has warts.
In cook's case we were mostly talking about how great the system is, how he's clearly the number one back in that system, and how he's not only a good runner but good breceiver and goal line guy.
But the injury concern is real. It isn't fair to judge after 3 weeks and say this guy was a great pick or bad pick if you were worried about injury, because the people who liked him might be right and the people who didn't like him might still be proven right. So how do you judge the pick right now?
For me, the answer is that you'll still have the sword of damocles having over you until week 16 no matter how good he looks. And i don't think you should judge the pick on whether cook stays healthy or gets hurt, and if he doesget hurt, which week and for how long. That's results oriented thinking.
What i want is a guy whose value is really high when he plays. So when you compare him with another risky pick, Gurley, the question was who would be more valuable when they played. And it seems like the early answer is cook, because his coach wants to use him for everything while Gurley's wants to limit his touches. If they both have injury concerns, give me the guy who will score more.
I think many of us thought Henderson would get carries over brown, but there was some debate on that. When cook's backup played well this preseason and caught some passes. it really increased cook's value to me as a guy whose backup might be able to plug in for a few weeks or even the rest of the season and not completely blow the pick.
I traded Mixon for cook prior to the season back when Mixon was a late first and cook a mid-late second. Mixon had a higher floor, but he had risk too, between the character concerns that made him slip in the draft, the Bengals drafting two new rookies, and a new head coach and offensive system. But his ceiling seemed lower - for him to improve, he didn't need more volume, and he didn't need to play better individually, he just needed more goal line opportunities and surrounding talent. When the o line started to show issues, I wanted off that bus. I might be wrong in the long run but that's how i saw it.
Comparing cook with Elliott, when it seemed increasingly likely Elliott would miss time at the start of the season and cook was a risk to last to the end, and Elliott had more track history but might be an injury risk due to the holdout, it just seemed like Elliott was the clear pick.
The one I don't think you can judge is Conner. He might lose that job. That's obviously a concern. But he's been dinged and Ben getting hurt - it's not an apples to apples comparison.
So i think looking at the process, we should have liked cook a lot this off season. Maybe not 1.5, but like i said at the time, i didn't think a lot separated those picks.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
I got Cook at 2.9 in a 10 team league. need to grab Mattison off of waivers, starting to get nervous that the injury is about to happen, and AM has looked like a phenom in bit parts so far.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Weebs210
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
But he got the respect of the "draft day value" crowd - so he's got that going for him.
I had an opportunity to grab Cook in two leagues where I did not, but other players fell far where I zigged instead of zagged and got Kelce at 20, and Conner at 19. Cook went 21 and 20 in those leagues, and I was hemming and hawing about picking him the whole time. At least I have him in most leagues, where he is dragging a mediocre team to competitiveness. Wish I took him instead of Conner/Kelce. Ironically in both leagues where I have the 5th pick I got him (in the second round), thread title correct.
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DocHolliday
Footballguy
is he the best RB in the league right now when you combine talent with opportunity?
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Like GroveDiesel opined the other day, it's McCaffrey then Cook then a sharp drop off
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
I think if there's one overriding takeaway from this thread, it should be that every single fantasy league should be using an auction draft. If you feel like Dalvin Cook is worth 1.05 value, and everyone else in your league values him at 2.01 value, you can get him for $1 more than 2.01 value. Only 1 of my 4 leagues is an auction so I'm as guilty as the next guy , but in the year 2019 there's really no excuse for snake drafts still being the default.
Seriously: make noise in your leagues this off-season. Agitate about it. Make it happen. You'll thank me.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think I'd love to start auction drafting. One of my teams has Godwin, Robinson, Jacobs, and Waller, all of whom I got in the fourth round or later. That's not a back pat, that's something where if you spend a lot of time on these sites, you're not unfamiliar with these guys nor are you overvaluing if you spent a decent amount of auction bucks on them instead of having some guy just pick their name off of a list in snake. Then again, I prolly would have overspent or something. No discipline. But the thought you offer is intriguing and relevant to this discussion.
Wrigley
Footballguy
Heisenberg23
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I believe the answer is yes. Dalvin Cook currently 5th overall in ADP now.
Good times. I did not draft him at 1.05, but I did take him in an auction. The stars aligned for him.
I take pride in always being able to find that breakout player at RB. Last year it was Cook. It's how you win championships.
Therefore, I know you're all waiting to see who my pick is this year......lol. Unfortunately, I haven't really started researching that yet. But some initial candidates would be:
Miles Sanders - guy has top 5 potential and Howard is gone.
Ronald Jones - late round guy who could be a RB2
Guys I feel are overrated this year:
Henry - I'm not touching him at his ADP
Ekeler
I take pride in always being able to find that breakout player at RB. Last year it was Cook. It's how you win championships.
Therefore, I know you're all waiting to see who my pick is this year......lol. Unfortunately, I haven't really started researching that yet. But some initial candidates would be:
Miles Sanders - guy has top 5 potential and Howard is gone.
Ronald Jones - late round guy who could be a RB2
Guys I feel are overrated this year:
Henry - I'm not touching him at his ADP
Ekeler
Deamon
Footballguy
Why Henry overrated? I'd say his odds of leading the league in carries is very high.
Deamon
Footballguy
I guess. I feel like RB's don't really fit into that 'defenses will review tape' thing though like they do for QB's. The guy is a beast, you can try to scheme for him, or even stack the box, but then they'll beat you through the air. I think he has the safest floor of any first round pick and also maybe one of the highest ceilings.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agreed. And he’s one of those “gets stronger as the game goes on” type backs. He’s so punishing - trying to tackle him all game long the defenders get beat to heck. IIRC Henry’s YAC actually improved in the 3rd and 4th quartet. Either defenders got tired or simply didn’t want to get run over by that truck again.
So long as TEN continues to employ a workhorse RB, Henry will be worth every penny of his ADP in every format.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This topic, man.
Taking a high-level view, context matters.
What many in here seem to overlook/forget is that at the time this question was asked, Cook’s ADP was mid-to-late 2nd round.
I’d done probably 30 mock drafts at the time where he went 2.08 or later, occasionally making it all the way to the 2/3 turn.
His recent injury history & resulting “injury prone” tag depressed his value. That depressed value is exactly what made Cook such a steal last season.
I hope you were able to buy him relatively inexpensively at auction. To be analogous with this topic, you would have paid close to Barkley or CMC price for him. I don’t mean to single you out here or dismiss your “point of pride” in “identifying breakout players”, but you were hardly alone in that - literally no one said Cook sucked before last season.
In fact, most FF managers & “experts” consensus opinion was that IF he stayed on the field, he’d be among the league’s best. And it was that caveat that resulted in his late-2nd valuation (& ADP) at the time this topic was posted.
in my opinion, the answer is still “yes”, It would have been a bad pick, because in the context of valuation at that time, someone could have conceivably taken a Michael Thomas at 1.05, and then also very likely had Dalvin Cook at 2.08, which is a better start than Cook 1.05 and whatever WR one could have had at 2.08 (obviously a downgrade from Thomas, the #1 WR).
Evaluating whether it was “crazy” or not based on his subsequent performance is merely a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.
Big picture, and what should be FF 101: Identifying players that will break out is only 1/2 of the equation. But getting that “later ADP than their value should dictate” with them is what makes them a bargain, which is the other half of the equation.
A good analogy is Jamaal Lewis, AKA “jailbird Jamaal”. Coming off of an ACL tear (back In the dark ages when this was considered a 2-year injury) and fresh off of a prison sentence, I saw a great bounce-back candidate. A rare feature back on a team that loved to run. I was able to wait and take him at 2.12/3.01 and paired him with LT2 for the best RB combo I’ve ever had. Lewis went off for 2000+ yards that year. I KNEW he was going to have a great year. I was sure of it. From everything I’d read about his recovery & what he was doing to stay in shape in prison, I knew it. His ADP was mid-3rd.
So....would it have been crazy to take him 1.01? YES! It would have been absolutely bat-crap bonkers to take him at 1.01, because I knew he’d more than likely be there at the 2/3 turn - and he was.
so I
1. identified an undervalued player, and I
2. was patient in waiting for the draft to come to me.
sure - it was also lucky. I had no idea he’d be a 2000+ yard RB. I just knew he’d be worth more than a mid-3rd.
I’m thrilled for Cook owners who took him in the 1st round. It was a great pick. I won’t disparage it at all. He’s a talented player who I love to watch, and I wouldn’t shy away from him in 2020 redraft.
But I don’t think y’all got the best value on him there (or at top dollar auction price). It’s one of those 20-20 hindsight things. He performed, so in a vacuum it was a good pick that worked out.
That doesn’t mean that in the context of his ADP at the time it wasn’t still a reach.
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