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Ask a guy who gambles on stuff about gambling on stuff (1 Viewer)

Good Posting Judge

Footballguy
Having been sought out specifically for advice about gambling by FBG Father of the Year @Stuart Ullman, it made me realize that I know a lot about gambling. Maybe not as much as some others in the wagering thread, but quite a bit. Sports, random props, casino games, etc. Caveat: 90% of my answers are going to be some variation of "that's a dumb idea."

 
What are you playing for the Derby?
Most entertaining way to blow $200?
Audible, per a friend of mine who works at a track. 

Kind of depends on how you get your kicks. In a casino I'd say a table of no-limit hold 'em, where you actually may not be drawing dead. Outside, I'd say betting on a fight card with buddies.

 
Audible, per a friend of mine who works at a track. 

Kind of depends on how you get your kicks. In a casino I'd say a table of no-limit hold 'em, where you actually may not be drawing dead. Outside, I'd say betting on a fight card with buddies.
I meant more for betting the Derby, but with enough mint juleps anything is possible.

Oops, read that as fight club 

 
How do you scratch your poker itch these days?  

Best sport for DFS?

Can sports betting be beat?  

 
Who is the worse at making gambling predictions, Mike Francesca or Bill Simmons?
Both are probably about equal. I have a theory that there may sports bettors who win less than 50% of the time, people who know about sports, but dont necessarily know how to apply that info, and fall into traps. These two might qualify.

 
Any tips on betting greyhounds?

Go for the big one? The little one? The one that just dropped a duece on the track?

 
Explain the martingdale system to me.
Its undergirded by the belief that you can always get back to even as long as you just keep doubling. But losing 10 blackjack hands in a row isnt inconceivable, you have about a 1000 to 1 chance of putting up 10 straight losses. If you double 20 bucks ten times, you start facing financial wipeout unless you are chet. And even chet will probably start getting uncomfortable around 12 to 13 straight losses. 

Its also just going to make you sick even if you do manage to get back to even.

 
How do you scratch your poker itch these days?  

Best sport for DFS?

Can sports betting be beat?  
1) plo8 ring games on whatever network betonline uses. I am still decent at plo8 and tourney play. Absolute fish for nl cash now.

2) baseball

3) yes, but takes a ton of effort.

 
Great thread, Judge.  Are there any paid touts or sports handicappers you respect/enjoy/follow?

 
me personally k-3 up and give yourself a  fighting chance on the high hand - I believe that is the "house" way
You are right, that is the house way. But the house ALWAYS plays to push. 

You pretty much need a Pai Gow from the dealer to win either way with this hand. 

 
Single-deck with no doubling after splits and lousy penetration, or double-deck with DAS and consistent 67% penetration?

 
What exactly did Matt Damon do against Teddy KGB in the last scene in Rounders?  
McD was re-creating the strategy Johnny Chan used in the final hand of that WSOP video he was watching with Petra.  Kept checking/calling to convince KGB he was on a draw when McD actually had flopped the nut straight.  

We never see KGB’s cards, but it’s assumed KGB was holding AA, the same hand that bankrupted McD in the opening scene.  That would have given KGB a set of aces, second-best possible hand on that board.  

 

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