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Ask a guy who gambles on stuff about gambling on stuff (1 Viewer)

RokNRole said:
I meant if you are banging on average 1.2 random women a week.
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Different kind of gambling. You gotta weigh the positives (barebackin' rules) against the negatives (possible disease, knocking a strange lady up). 

How much do you love hitting it raw? How averse are you to gonorrhea or herp? Do you keep it if you get her knocked up? Can you trust her that she's on the pill? Lots of variables here. 

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Different kind of gambling. You gotta weigh the positives (barebackin' rules) against the negatives (possible disease, knocking a strange lady up). 

How much do you love hitting it raw? How averse are you to gonorrhea or herp? Do you keep it if you get her knocked up? Can you trust her that she's on the pill? Lots of variables here. 
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I very much enjoy it raw.

Im as averse to VD as anyone I suppose. 

I always pull out in a timely manner so I’m not worried about knocking anyone up.

I pull out even if they say they are on the pill.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
He posts at cappingthegame. I'll dig around for it, but he averages around 50-150 units a year. Which comes out to 2-6 per week over the season, which isn't much. But the dude's free, and that ####'s a grind.

I'm also dicking around with some of my own ideas. With MLB it's important to really just press through the bad days/weeks, it can be a grind.
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Along these lines, how much do you make or not make per week/year.  Are you a professional gambler and if not, are you working towards being one later?

 
hooter311 said:
Because the market self corrects.  Tout with 20,000 followers gives out a +300 prop play and in 10 minutes the books drop it to +175.  If someone is that good, why wouldn't they bet more instead of waste time appeasing to the masses.

It's a lot easier to beat a market than to tail a guy that's beating the market, because you aren't getting the same lines.
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I'm not talking about beating a props market with micro limits.  

If you have a successful edge beating sides and totals of a major sport, why would you take any risk making the market more efficient by posting plays for free?  Either a successful capper preserves their edge at all costs OR a successful capper compensates for publicly posting plays by becoming a reputable service for sale.

 
Bruce Dickinson said:
McD was re-creating the strategy Johnny Chan used in the final hand of that WSOP video he was watching with Petra.  Kept checking/calling to convince KGB he was on a draw when McD actually had flopped the nut straight.  

We never see KGB’s cards, but it’s assumed KGB was holding AA, the same hand that bankrupted McD in the opening scene.  That would have given KGB a set of aces, second-best possible hand on that board.  
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I assumed this as well.  At worst, he had to have a pair in the hole that became a set on the flop.  I mean, he called Mikey a boogermyet when he spiked the deck off the felt.  

 
I'm just trying to figure out what benefit someone gains by posting plays for free.  The edge in a major market is microscopic.  As the market becomes informed, the lines get sharper, and the edge diminishes.  Why risk that for a few likes on Twitter?

 
Donkey Derp said:
I'm just trying to figure out what benefit someone gains by posting plays for free.  The edge in a major market is microscopic.  As the market becomes informed, the lines get sharper, and the edge diminishes.  Why risk that for a few likes on Twitter?
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Again, I think some dudes like GH are philanthropic and want to do their followers a solid. But the amount of money that gets tailed on his bets is a drop in the bucket in terms of the money that's bet overall in the daily MLB markets.

 
AAABatteries said:
Along these lines, how much do you make or not make per week/year.  Are you a professional gambler and if not, are you working towards being one later?
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Not pro, but I am a winning player. I do well, but I run into the same problem that a lot of prop players run into, which is getting enough money down without getting cut. 

I can't see making a run into being a pro. I generally think professional gamblers aren't very well-rounded people. 

 
Buck Bradcanon said:
I realize this is a dumb question for most here, but what is the best way to fund Bovada?  Normal credit card didn't work.  I don't own any bitcoin.
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related question - where can a fella play online poker nowadays?  I don't live in PA or NJ. 

 
Brony said:
related question - where can a fella play online poker nowadays?  I don't live in PA or NJ. 
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Bovada is probably easiest. I can't figure out their interface for cash games, it's brutal, but they have a lot of tourneys.

There are some smaller networks that have crept back into the US, but Bovada is probably biggest.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Bovada is probably easiest. I can't figure out their interface for cash games, it's brutal, but they have a lot of tourneys.

There are some smaller networks that have crept back into the US, but Bovada is probably biggest.
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thanks.  I prefer tourneys anyway. I'm assuming Visa gift card is easiest way to fund so I'll try that.

 
Buck Bradcanon said:
I realize this is a dumb question for most here, but what is the best way to fund Bovada?  Normal credit card didn't work.  I don't own any bitcoin.
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Bitcoin 

some credit cards will go through, some won’t.  I know my capital one card would get flagged and I’d have to go online and confirm it was a legit purchase.  Also it’s usually charged to some foreign country so make sure you don’t have any restrictions on that

 
Pretty sure I've asked before but what's Wong?

How often to you go with your gut vs your numbers?

Will blindly betting all the overs in the World Cup group stage be profitable?

Are futures bad (probably the wrong word to use) due to your capital being tied up for lengthy amounts of time?

What's the more believable movie: Two for the Money or Draft Day?

 
strykerpks said:
Pretty sure I've asked before but what's Wong?

How often to you go with your gut vs your numbers?

Will blindly betting all the overs in the World Cup group stage be profitable?

Are futures bad (probably the wrong word to use) due to your capital being tied up for lengthy amounts of time?

What's the more believable movie: Two for the Money or Draft Day?
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1) Back in the old days, you could tease NFL games profitably if you teased teams that were between -7.5 to -8.5 favorites, or +1.5 to +2.5 dogs. This is because so many NFL games have a margin of 3 or 7 points, they're the two most common scores. It worked when two-team 6 point teases paid +110 or 3 teams paid 185, but books have gotten wise and lowered teaser odds accordingly. A guy names Wong came up with this.

2) 98% numbers for NBA/MLB. For boxing, it's a lot lower, simply because their aren't many numbers to go on. You try to analyze two fighters as objectively as possible, but "gut" is going to come into it a little more.

3) Tying up money is not great, but you can use a credit book so that money isn't tied up. 

4) Haven't seen either. I tried that Lay The Favorite movie that has Die Hard in it but I only got through about half an hour.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
I assumed this as well.  At worst, he had to have a pair in the hole that became a set on the flop.  I mean, he called Mikey a boogermyet when he spiked the deck off the felt.  
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I always felt that KGB just assumed Matt Damon missed his draw and couldn't call. I never felt like he had a great hand.

 
msudaisy26 said:
I always felt that KGB just assumed Matt Damon missed his draw and couldn't call. I never felt like he had a great hand.
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To 3-bet preflop and bet every street, he must have had something good. Making a big bet on the end as a bluff to blow Mike off the pot would make sense for maybe a less sophisticated player, but you'd think he'd risk less if he thought Mike had air.

Two other things about that movie:

1) who says no to Petra, geez.

2) The math is all wrong on the hand that Mike plays with Johnny Chan, I think he says they're playing 300/600 (which is a massive game), and he sits down with 6k. Plays tight for an hour, so assume he has about that when he has the big hand. Mike has the button, Johnny Chan raises, and throws 5 chips out. So that's probably to 2500, which is standard. For Mike to re-raise right there, it's probably going to be his entire stack of ~6000, and Chan would be priced in to call. Much less a 5-bet that Chan eventually folds to, they'd have to be playing super deep for that to happen.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
To 3-bet preflop and bet every street, he must have had something good. Making a big bet on the end as a bluff to blow Mike off the pot would make sense for maybe a less sophisticated player, but you'd think he'd risk less if he thought Mike had air.

Two other things about that movie:

1) who says no to Petra, geez.

2) The math is all wrong on the hand that Mike plays with Johnny Chan, I think he says they're playing 300/600 (which is a massive game), and he sits down with 6k. Plays tight for an hour, so assume he has about that when he has the big hand. Mike has the button, Johnny Chan raises, and throws 5 chips out. So that's probably to 2500, which is standard. For Mike to re-raise right there, it's probably going to be his entire stack of ~6000, and Chan would be priced in to call. Much less a 5-bet that Chan eventually folds to, they'd have to be playing super deep for that to happen.
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I haven't seen the movie in a while, so I just watched tgat scene again. Matt Damon doubled the blind preflop, I  feel like KGB would call with anything there. Damon checks the flop. I feel like KGB's 2k bet was probably a pot size bet to see where he was at, then Damon set the trap and KGB bought it and thought he was on a draw. KGB kept firing at each turn because it looked like it didn't help him and at the end Dam9n would be able to call with a busted draw. 

 
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Good Posting Judge said:
To 3-bet preflop and bet every street, he must have had something good. Making a big bet on the end as a bluff to blow Mike off the pot would make sense for maybe a less sophisticated player, but you'd think he'd risk less if he thought Mike had air.

Two other things about that movie:

1) who says no to Petra, geez.

2) The math is all wrong on the hand that Mike plays with Johnny Chan, I think he says they're playing 300/600 (which is a massive game), and he sits down with 6k. Plays tight for an hour, so assume he has about that when he has the big hand. Mike has the button, Johnny Chan raises, and throws 5 chips out. So that's probably to 2500, which is standard. For Mike to re-raise right there, it's probably going to be his entire stack of ~6000, and Chan would be priced in to call. Much less a 5-bet that Chan eventually folds to, they'd have to be playing super deep for that to happen.
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You're exactly right.  That has always irritated the #### out of me, even more so than Mike saying no to Petra, which Koppelman admitted on Simmons' podcast (you probably heard it) was a mistake by the writers.

 
msudaisy26 said:
I haven't seen the movie in a while, so I just watched tgat scene again. Matt Damon doubled the blind preflop, I  feel like KGB would call with anything there. Damon checks the flop. I feel like KGB's 2k bet was probably a pot size bet to see where he was at, then Damon set the trap and KGB bought it and thought he was on a draw. KGB kept firing at each turn because it looked like it didn't help him. 
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Would he have really byet...it......awllllll if he was holding rags or a weak pair after McD called him on both the flop and the turn?  This isn't a PokerStars free money table - Mike's life was literally on the line.  Is he going to call a pot-sized bet on the river if he's on an up-and-down straight draw?  I would expect a value bet or a check/showdown from KGB on the river if he didn't at least have a piece.

 
msudaisy26 said:
I haven't seen the movie in a while, so I just watched tgat scene again. Matt Damon doubled the blind preflop, I  feel like KGB would call with anything there. Damon checks the flop. I feel like KGB's 2k bet was probably a pot size bet to see where he was at, then Damon set the trap and KGB bought it and thought he was on a draw. KGB kept firing at each turn because it looked like it didn't help him and at the end Dam9n would be able to call with a busted draw. 
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KGB re-raised preflop, right?

Another thing about that hand, if I bet and someone calls and says "I have to or I won't respect myself in the morning" I'm going to shut it all the way down right there. 

 
Good Posting Judge said:
To 3-bet preflop and bet every street, he must have had something good. Making a big bet on the end as a bluff to blow Mike off the pot would make sense for maybe a less sophisticated player, but you'd think he'd risk less if he thought Mike had air.

Two other things about that movie:

1) who says no to Petra, geez.

2) The math is all wrong on the hand that Mike plays with Johnny Chan, I think he says they're playing 300/600 (which is a massive game), and he sits down with 6k. Plays tight for an hour, so assume he has about that when he has the big hand. Mike has the button, Johnny Chan raises, and throws 5 chips out. So that's probably to 2500, which is standard. For Mike to re-raise right there, it's probably going to be his entire stack of ~6000, and Chan would be priced in to call. Much less a 5-bet that Chan eventually folds to, they'd have to be playing super deep for that to happen.
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Analysis

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Would he have really byet...it......awllllll if he was holding rags or a weak pair after McD called him on both the flop and the turn?  This isn't a PokerStars free money table - Mike's life was literally on the line.  Is he going to call a pot-sized bet on the river if he's on an up-and-down straight draw?  I would expect a value bet or a check/showdown from KGB on the river if he didn't at least have a piece.
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I think he probably had something, butbi doubt it was a monster. 

 
Good Posting Judge said:
KGB re-raised preflop, right?

Another thing about that hand, if I bet and someone calls and says "I have to or I won't respect myself in the morning" I'm going to shut it all the way down right there. 
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Nope, Damon basically min. raised and KGB just called. 

I agree with the last part, but I feel like that was played up because of Hollywood. 

 
Good Posting Judge said:
KGB re-raised preflop, right?

Another thing about that hand, if I bet and someone calls and says "I have to or I won't respect myself in the morning" I'm going to shut it all the way down right there. 
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This.  As opposed to saying "respyect is awl you have left in de morning..." and then jizzing down your pant leg by shoving multiple stacks of high society.

 
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