Ghost Rider
Footballguy
What's really bizarre is, for as dominant as the Patriots have been at home, they have three home playoff losses in the last five playoff seasons, two of which were double digit losses. Weird.
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Broncos vs Patriots pregame chatter. Broncos 3.5pt favorites (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter devouredbychaos
- Start date
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The earlier loss to the Ravens NE had to play without Welker, who tore his ACL the week before. The second loss to BAL, the Pats had to play without Gronk. The loss in the middle to the Jets . . . I got nothing.
What has killed NE in 11, 12, and 13 was not having Gronk healthy in the game that they were eliminated. He makes that much difference to the offense.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
that's partly true -- I won't say it's untrue, but the loss to baltimore was mostly about defensive line injuries.
gronk can't help on defense.
anyway, that's all excuses -- we don't want to turn ourselves into broncos fans here.
ON TO DENVER!
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Devine Intervention
Footballguy
If the wind isn't that much of a factor then Denver rolls NE.
INDIANAPOLIS has performed bad in NE in the past. Sure, Manning didn't have strong outings but most of these games were played outside in cold conditions. In games where you would tend to lean on a strong run game and good defense. Brady has had a strong run game and great defense to lean on in the cold but Manning typically has not. With Hillman running well and Denver's defense playing better I don't think BB is going to be able to scheme his way out of this one.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Indy/Den didn't run so much because of the conditions, they did it because the Pats were intentionally trying to minimize Peyton's abilities. Typically late in those games if it was close, or Indy/Denver was losing, they seemed almost reluctant to change their gameplan - for whatever the actual reason is, I think its because Peyton didn't wanna take responsibility and force it, choosing instead to play it safe - which pretty much falls in line with the bend-not-break mentality of the recent Pats defenses.
Let em run all day, don't give up the big plays and always go for the takeaway.
Let em run all day, don't give up the big plays and always go for the takeaway.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Denver 76
Cheaters 0
It could be a bit closer if the weather is bad.
Cheaters 0
It could be a bit closer if the weather is bad.
devouredbychaos
Footballguy
Pats secondary is probably one of the best Manning has seen all season. Brady is the best QB the Broncos have played against all season. Manning is 2-6 at Foxboro and there will be 40-50mph winds with gusts up to 60mph. Gillette is a wind tunnel. Broncos are a good team, but I see the Pats coming out exactly like they did vs the Bengals and smashing them in the mouth. Pats are a different beast at home.Devine Intervention said:
Baloney Sandwich
Footballguy
37-23 Pats
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
If the winds are truly that high this could get very interesting. Do we know whether they are predicted to be blowing across the field or down the field? Could be field position game with no field goals and almost exclusively running on offense. Manning's dying duck ball, in particular, is not designed to cut the wind. Letting him throw in 40 mph winds would be inexcusable by a coach, there is no telling where his ball would end up.
Where is this coming from? I can see a wind advisory in Foxboro for tonight, but everywhere I look, it shows calmer weather tomorrow afternoon (winds in the teens, not 40s-50s). Is there more accurate information somewhere?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The weather reports and potential implications are getting more exagerrated by the minute. The latest forecast is 35-40 degrees with winds 15-20 mph and 10% chance of precipitation. Occasional gusts of up to 30 mph. This will not be an epic, biblical storm by any means. Cross winds may impact the passing and FG kicking some, tail winds would impact the field position/range of kickers some. I don't expect the weather to have a huge impact on the game.
I would say the Pats have a 60% chance to win playing at home. If the game were in Denver, I would only give them a 10% chance. Like most games, the team that holds on to the football and gets TDs instead of FGs in the red zone should win. Even though DEN has more talent in their starters, I think depth and better coaching favors NE.
I also think Denver would win a rematch in Denver down the road, so NE needs to hope someone else can knock off the Broncos in their first playoff game (BAL? SD? KC?).
I would say the Pats have a 60% chance to win playing at home. If the game were in Denver, I would only give them a 10% chance. Like most games, the team that holds on to the football and gets TDs instead of FGs in the red zone should win. Even though DEN has more talent in their starters, I think depth and better coaching favors NE.
I also think Denver would win a rematch in Denver down the road, so NE needs to hope someone else can knock off the Broncos in their first playoff game (BAL? SD? KC?).
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
FOX and CBS are permitted to protect a handful of games from being selected for the NBC Sunday Night package, and I'm sure this was one of them.
tombonneau
Footballguy
The second most important player in this game for Pats - behind Gronk and ahead of Brady - is rookie center Bryan Stork. If he can handle interior rush from whats-his-name (escapes me) on Denver DL who abused interior in AFCCG, then we have a very good ball game. If he is a turnstile this one is a laugher.
thatguy
Footballguy
Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton.
The second most important player in this game for Pats - behind Gronk and ahead of Brady - is rookie center Bryan Stork. If he can handle interior rush from whats-his-name (escapes me) on Denver DL who abused interior in AFCCG, then we have a very good ball game. If he is a turnstile this one is a laugher.
devouredbychaos
Footballguy
Weather Channel is where I looked. Forecast is now saying 20-30mph winds, and gusts could occasionally hit 40mph. It'll be windy regardless. Looks like rain in the afternoon now, with temps in the high 30s.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Interesting.
This is what I'm getting from weather channel for Foxboro tomorrow from 4-6:
4 PM 39°Cloudy PRECIP: 20% WIND: NW at 19 mph
5 PM38°Partly Cloudy
PRECIP: 10% WIND: NW at 17 mph
6 PM37°Partly Cloudy
PRECIP: 10% WIND: NW at 16 mph
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
That's what I am hearing, it is supposed to be very windy earlier in the day, but not nearly as bad later in the day. Hopefully similar to last week, the worst of it will pass before the game and we will have decent conditions.
Riversco
Footballguy
The Patriots defense held them to 7 points in the first half in the AFC title game, but the Patriots also suffered several injuries on defense. They lost Talib to a thigh injury. The Patriots really couldn't get a lot of pressure on Flacco and he was able to move the ball.
Riversco
Footballguy
I'd split the Brady era into the years with Richard Seymour and the years after he was traded. Seymour was the bona fide stud on the defense for them. He was first team all-pro in 2 of their super bowl wins. He was a very special talent and they've never replaced that.
To win Super Bowls you need a franchise QB and then you need to be able to hit the other team's QB. They had all of that in the Brady / Seymour years.
The Patriots have made at least three attempts to fix this. They signed Adalius Thomas in 2007 after his first-team all-pro year with the Ravens in 2006. They traded for Albert Haynesworth in 2011. Both of these moves were meant to help them dominate the line of scrimmage again. Neither worked out.
Then there's Chandler Jones. Chandler Jones has emerged as a force on the line (they used their first round pick on him in 2012), but he was lost for the season in week 7 to a hip injury.
LB Jamie Collins (first round pick in 2013) looked like he was about to break out and be a star but now he is hurt. He's not playing this week either.
To win Super Bowls you need a franchise QB and then you need to be able to hit the other team's QB. They had all of that in the Brady / Seymour years.
The Patriots have made at least three attempts to fix this. They signed Adalius Thomas in 2007 after his first-team all-pro year with the Ravens in 2006. They traded for Albert Haynesworth in 2011. Both of these moves were meant to help them dominate the line of scrimmage again. Neither worked out.
Then there's Chandler Jones. Chandler Jones has emerged as a force on the line (they used their first round pick on him in 2012), but he was lost for the season in week 7 to a hip injury.
LB Jamie Collins (first round pick in 2013) looked like he was about to break out and be a star but now he is hurt. He's not playing this week either.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Run It Up
Footballguy
Collins is fine. Losing Mayo is a bigger loss than Jones, their defensive line is fine. Thin at LB already lost their best one, a future HOFer. Fortunately Hightower and Collins are both great, and Ayers signs and registers 5 tackles and a sack the same week for a team he never played for and three weeks since hes been on a field.
Faust
MVP
Bill Belichick on meteorologists: 'They're almost always wrong'
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24776748/bill-belichik-on-meteorologists-theyre-almost-always-wrong
Bill Belichick is badly misinformed about weather forecasters
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/31/bill-belichick-is-badly-misinformed-about-meteorologists/
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24776748/bill-belichik-on-meteorologists-theyre-almost-always-wrong
Bill Belichick is badly misinformed about weather forecasters
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/31/bill-belichick-is-badly-misinformed-about-meteorologists/
Riversco
Footballguy
Oh I see he's back. Rotoworld had him as injured and I missed the date on the report.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
there are a lot of guys on a team --- there's not really even any point talking about injuries.
there are always injuries, every team has them, it's just a question of who and how much time they miss.
of course I'm not happy about losing chandler and mayo --- and chandler should be back, I think, but what are you supposed to do about it?
team still looking better stocked than in recent years, so I'm not complaining.
I remember days when they were rolling edelman out there as a db.
there are always injuries, every team has them, it's just a question of who and how much time they miss.
of course I'm not happy about losing chandler and mayo --- and chandler should be back, I think, but what are you supposed to do about it?
team still looking better stocked than in recent years, so I'm not complaining.
I remember days when they were rolling edelman out there as a db.
Riversco
Footballguy
Injuries can derail seasons.
The Chargers @ Patriots AFC championship game saw a Charger team hit with key injuries. Rivers had a bum knee and had arthroscopic surgery on it the day before the game and was hobbling around. Tomlinson only had a handful of plays because he sprained his knee. Gates had dislocated his left big toe and could barely run. Even with all that, the Patriots only won by 9 and lost the Giants in the Super Bowl.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
yeah, I remember when brady had a bum knee
edit: and btw, I remember that sd game very well --- it was awesome.
that was the game rivers supposedly had some ligament removed or something, so he could play.
you seem to think it was a little more competitive than it actually was, so let me check some stats on that narrow 9 point win, because I don't remember sd putting up much of a fight.
they pretty much lay down while tomlinson sulked on the end of the bench.
it was 'only' 9 points because the pats sat on the ball in the 2nd half, running 20x in the half and holding the ball 21.5 min to only 8.5 for the chargers, and that's with brady gifting them a couple picks ----- so tomlinson, gates, and rivers play defense in your imagination now?
pats closed out a dominant half with a 9 min drive starting on their own 13 and finishing with brady kneeling on the sd 20 --- so gfy with your 9 points
maybe you were blacked out by then.
that's the game that inspired tomlinson's action figure --- maybe order one to remember it a little better
more edits: hey, while we're fondly reminiscing --- who will ever forget this game against the 14-2 superbowl bound chargers?
awesome
if I remember right, that's the game that prompted this revenge match
tomlinson 18/43/0
what was hurt that week --- his feelings?
LOVE the pats!!!!
edit: and btw, I remember that sd game very well --- it was awesome.
that was the game rivers supposedly had some ligament removed or something, so he could play.
you seem to think it was a little more competitive than it actually was, so let me check some stats on that narrow 9 point win, because I don't remember sd putting up much of a fight.
they pretty much lay down while tomlinson sulked on the end of the bench.
it was 'only' 9 points because the pats sat on the ball in the 2nd half, running 20x in the half and holding the ball 21.5 min to only 8.5 for the chargers, and that's with brady gifting them a couple picks ----- so tomlinson, gates, and rivers play defense in your imagination now?
pats closed out a dominant half with a 9 min drive starting on their own 13 and finishing with brady kneeling on the sd 20 --- so gfy with your 9 points
maybe you were blacked out by then.
that's the game that inspired tomlinson's action figure --- maybe order one to remember it a little better
more edits: hey, while we're fondly reminiscing --- who will ever forget this game against the 14-2 superbowl bound chargers?
awesome
if I remember right, that's the game that prompted this revenge match
tomlinson 18/43/0
what was hurt that week --- his feelings?
LOVE the pats!!!!
Last edited by a moderator:
devouredbychaos
Footballguy
Collins is fine, and Jones isn't necessarily done for the season. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in another month.
Should be a great game today regardless of the outcome.
Should be a great game today regardless of the outcome.
Baloney Sandwich
Footballguy
Looks like the rain will have mostly stopped by game time and I don't think the wind will be all that bad but it will swirl. Going to be cold, definitely will be in the 30s by kick off.
DropKick
Footballguy
Not really "bizarre" as play-off competition, especially conference championship, is much better than the average NFL team.
I haven't seen anyone really slow the Broncos yet this season - and I doubt this NE defense will have answers for an offense as talented as Denver's. And the Patriot's offense seems to be finding a rhythm but isn't as scary or consistent as years past.
Obviously, weather and/or turnovers could be a factor. Interested in how NE approaches the game. I think they're too proud to do a ball control, "keep away" game (think Chargers here). They probably lack the ground game to execute it as well. A shoot-out is more likely but I see NE faltering early. Denver gets a big lead and wins by 10 (34-24).
Every prediction needs a caveat or two. The NFL is unpredictable week to week. No one thought the Bengals would be embarrassed in NE earlier this year. The Colt's defense pitches a shut-out against the Bengals and gives up 51 points the next week.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
I'm guessing I should drop McManus and grab a different kicker then due to the weather?
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Plus, the fact that he is only 6 for 8 on field goals in seven games. The Broncos are converting most scoring chances into touchdowns, and even if drives bog down today, there is no guarantee that he'll hit them in what might be not ideal conditions. I jumped ship everywhere I had him.
purestrength
Footballguy
Crap!
massraider
Footballguy
Right, so they post a line of 3.5. People thinking it's a close matchup think, "Aww yeah, 3.5! They can lose by a field goal and cover."Tool said:
Lines like 3.5, 6.5, 2.5 etc. always make me take another look.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
just made the call line is pats +3
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
god helping broncos fans out with their excuses
Hoss Style
Footballguy
I like you Larry, and as a result, I'm going to love giving you the business if we win. Please, let us win. And for the record, most of us Broncos fans haven't made any excuses - at least any more than Pats fans have in the past.
Hoss Style
Footballguy
The only thing worse would be if our kicker, McManus, who we let go Prater for, missed a kick to win the game right before the scenario you listed.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I'd prefer a 59-0 blowout
Faust
MVP
Blizzard-like conditions in Foxborough:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000421025/article/blizzardlike-conditions-in-foxborough
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000421025/article/blizzardlike-conditions-in-foxborough
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
INCREDELMAAAAAAAN!!!
yeah I know it got overturned
yeah I know it got overturned
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