Capella’s Very Stupid Trying to Pick Each NFL Division Winner Weekly thread (1 Viewer)

[Capella]

So for the last 2.5 years I’ve made a very small bet (3-5 bucks each) after each NFL week where I try to pick the division winners at the end of the season. You’ll be surprised to know that I have not even come close to succeeding. I think the best before the season was 4 teams and the best mid-season was 5. By the end of the year I hit all 8 last year but that paid basically nothing.

Most of bets this year are dead because of Buffalo but I’ll still show a few of the early bets and then post them weekly from here on out. Maybe this will be entertaining, maybe not, but it certainly will be stupid. I equate this to buying 5 dollars of scratch offs every week but occasionally you win 2 or 3 dollars with those.

Before Week 1:

Houston - Chargers - Ravens - Bills - Bucs - Rams - Pack - Commanders

This now meaningless 5 dollar bet was +116954 which would have paid 6435 dollars that I will never see. Maybe 4 of these look good.

After week 1:

Colts - Chargers - Ravens - Bills - Bucs - Rams - Pack - Eagles

This pointless 5 dollar bet went off at +5025 which would have paid 256 dollars that I will never see. Maybe 5 of these look good.

This went round and round for a while with me throwing my Lincolns after a team coached by Sean McDermott and a WR1 who couldn’t separate in college against Wake Forest. Finally kicked the Bills after last week and went with:

Colts - Broncos (I picked them up around week 4, never liked the Chiefs this year) - Ravens - and now finally decided to pick the Pats - Lions - Eagles - Bucs - Rams. This is +2395 which would pay out around 125 dollars.

I feel good about this but the NFC North is gonna get me. Anyways, this is this dumb thing I do. I don’t really gamble much but hitting one of these early in the season is my white whale.

 

[Capella]

Ps plz don’t move this to the shark pool this is about bad minuscule bets and hopefully terrible jokes.

 

[Frostillicus]

Riveting.

 

[Capella]

Riveting.

You haven’t had an interesting thought since the Wolves made the Finals.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Pats are taking the East
Ravens are gonna snipe the North
Colts in the South
Broncos in the West

That bet cannot pay much now because all I'm doing is listing the current Division Winners and swapping out Balt for Pitt which is a popular move/choice

Eagles - Lions(No Bears) - Bucs but the soft part of the schedule can't get here soon enough - Rams are taking the West and going to the Super Bowl

Good luck and don't listen to anyone

 

[Capella]

Pats are taking the East
Ravens are gonna snipe the North
Colts in the South
Broncos in the West

That bet cannot pay much now because all I'm doing is listing the current Division Winners and swapping out Balt for Pitt which is a popular move/choice

Still plus +182 so not even money but yea the trick here is getting the NFC North (3 viable winners) and the West. Rams in the driver’s seat but they still have to go to Seattle.

 

[msudaisy26]

Pats are taking the East
Ravens are gonna snipe the North
Colts in the South
Broncos in the West

That bet cannot pay much now because all I'm doing is listing the current Division Winners and swapping out Balt for Pitt which is a popular move/choice

Still plus +182 so not even money but yea the trick here is getting the NFC North (3 viable winners) and the West. Rams in the driver’s seat but they still have to go to Seattle.

I don't think Chicago is viable. Can you make 2 separate bets? One with Packers and one with the Lions?

 

[Capella]

Pats are taking the East
Ravens are gonna snipe the North
Colts in the South
Broncos in the West

That bet cannot pay much now because all I'm doing is listing the current Division Winners and swapping out Balt for Pitt which is a popular move/choice

Still plus +182 so not even money but yea the trick here is getting the NFC North (3 viable winners) and the West. Rams in the driver’s seat but they still have to go to Seattle.

I don't think Chicago is viable. Can you make 2 separate bets? One with Packers and one with the Lions?

Yea of course I could but that would violate the spirit of the dumb game I made up that nobody except me knew existed until 20 minutes ago (one guess per week).

I’ve gone back and forth between the Lions and Pack all year but all of those bets had the Bills in them so they’ll be losers.

 

[FDASv2.0]

Just put $1000 on the Patriots, boom all your money back.

#sharp

 

[Capella]

Just put $1000 on the Patriots, boom all your money back.

#sharp

lol

I put 8 dollars on Tommy Castellanos to win the Heisman after the Bama game.

 

[BassNBrew]

Seems like decent entertainment. Thanks for starting the thread.

 

[msudaisy26]

Pats are taking the East
Ravens are gonna snipe the North
Colts in the South
Broncos in the West

That bet cannot pay much now because all I'm doing is listing the current Division Winners and swapping out Balt for Pitt which is a popular move/choice

Still plus +182 so not even money but yea the trick here is getting the NFC North (3 viable winners) and the West. Rams in the driver’s seat but they still have to go to Seattle.

I don't think Chicago is viable. Can you make 2 separate bets? One with Packers and one with the Lions?

Yea of course I could but that would violate the spirit of the dumb game I made up that nobody except me knew existed until 20 minutes ago (one guess per week).

I’ve gone back and forth between the Lions and Pack all year but all of those bets had the Bills in them so they’ll be losers.

A few years ago I did the same thing with individual games . If you bet 20 dollars in week one and won for entire season , then you would have over 2.5 million dollars at the end of a 17 week season. I never got past week 7 or 8.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Good luck and don't listen to anyone

Best advice yet.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This has some potential, what other long shots do you bet beyond football, any early season MLB bets you like?

If the bets ay $250 on a $5 bet, you don't have to hit often to break even and I would say its almost more fun than a lottery ticket
You should look into DFS on Sundays, lot of low cost leagues you can jump in, $5-$7, etc...

 

[FairWarning]

This has some potential, what other long shots do you bet beyond football, any early season MLB bets you like?

If the bets ay $250 on a $5 bet, you don't have to hit often to break even and I would say its almost more fun than a lottery ticket
You should look into DFS on Sundays, lot of low cost leagues you can jump in, $5-$7, etc...

I love playing longer shot futures, especially awards. There is some great ways to lock in a huge profit if one played Stafford or Maye 4-6 weeks ago.

 

[Capella]

This has some potential, what other long shots do you bet beyond football, any early season MLB bets you like?

Does betting the rays to win the World Series every year count? lol.

Not much. I always bet the 3 Tampa teams to win their respective titles and the Rays wins over. Never done this kind of bet for any other sport but actually I think it would be fun for baseball division winners? I might do that in the spring.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This has some potential, what other long shots do you bet beyond football, any early season MLB bets you like?

Does betting the rays to win the World Series every year count? lol.

Not much. I always bet the 3 Tampa teams to win their respective titles and the Rays wins over. Never done this kind of bet for any other sport but actually I think it would be fun for baseball division winners? I might do that in the spring.

My son and I are already talking about going to the Trop opening day, celebrate Stu being gone and the roof/stadium back up to code

 

[Zow]

Pats are taking the East
Ravens are gonna snipe the North
Colts in the South
Broncos in the West

That bet cannot pay much now because all I'm doing is listing the current Division Winners and swapping out Balt for Pitt which is a popular move/choice

Still plus +182 so not even money but yea the trick here is getting the NFC North (3 viable winners) and the West. Rams in the driver’s seat but they still have to go to Seattle.

Ahem, 4…

 

[Capella]

Pats are taking the East
Ravens are gonna snipe the North
Colts in the South
Broncos in the West

That bet cannot pay much now because all I'm doing is listing the current Division Winners and swapping out Balt for Pitt which is a popular move/choice

Still plus +182 so not even money but yea the trick here is getting the NFC North (3 viable winners) and the West. Rams in the driver’s seat but they still have to go to Seattle.

Ahem, 4…

That’s how many interceptions JJ McCarthy gone throw today

 

[belljr]

I'm just here to throw stones from my glass house at Capella

 

[Joe Bryant]

So for the last 2.5 years I’ve made a very small bet (3-5 bucks each) after each NFL week where I try to pick the division winners at the end of the season. You’ll be surprised to know that I have not even come close to succeeding. I think the best before the season was 4 teams and the best mid-season was 5. By the end of the year I hit all 8 last year but that paid basically nothing.

Most of bets this year are dead because of Buffalo but I’ll still show a few of the early bets and then post them weekly from here on out. Maybe this will be entertaining, maybe not, but it certainly will be stupid. I equate this to buying 5 dollars of scratch offs every week but occasionally you win 2 or 3 dollars with those.

Before Week 1:

Houston - Chargers - Ravens - Bills - Bucs - Rams - Pack - Commanders

This now meaningless 5 dollar bet was +116954 which would have paid 6435 dollars that I will never see. Maybe 4 of these look good.

After week 1:

Colts - Chargers - Ravens - Bills - Bucs - Rams - Pack - Eagles

This pointless 5 dollar bet went off at +5025 which would have paid 256 dollars that I will never see. Maybe 5 of these look good.

This went round and round for a while with me throwing my Lincolns after a team coached by Sean McDermott and a WR1 who couldn’t separate in college against Wake Forest. Finally kicked the Bills after last week and went with:

Colts - Broncos (I picked them up around week 4, never liked the Chiefs this year) - Ravens - and now finally decided to pick the Pats - Lions - Eagles - Bucs - Rams. This is +2395 which would pay out around 125 dollars.

I feel good about this but the NFC North is gonna get me. Anyways, this is this dumb thing I do. I don’t really gamble much but hitting one of these early in the season is my white whale.

I'll just say - thanks for putting this out there. It's REALLY hard to do. Respect for laying out your thinking here.

 

[msudaisy26]

Pats are taking the East
Ravens are gonna snipe the North
Colts in the South
Broncos in the West

That bet cannot pay much now because all I'm doing is listing the current Division Winners and swapping out Balt for Pitt which is a popular move/choice

Still plus +182 so not even money but yea the trick here is getting the NFC North (3 viable winners) and the West. Rams in the driver’s seat but they still have to go to Seattle.

Ahem, 4…

That’s how many interceptions JJ McCarthy gone throw today

I thought it was how many games he would hope they win the rest of the season.

 

[Gally]

Interesting concept. I like it. Risk $90 and if you hit an early one or a few middle ones you probably get your money back plus a little.


ETA: What do you think you total "winnings" are since doing this?