Car Market going forward (1 Viewer)

[massraider]

Fiat Strada

Well, there's a google search that made me laugh. You really drove one of these?
Which year/model (pleasesaypickup, pleasesaypickup)

 

[belljr]

2 weeks in. miss a couple small things but so happy with the purchase

 

[Keerock]

Fiat Strada

Well, there's a google search that made me laugh. You really drove one of these?
Which year/model (pleasesaypickup, pleasesaypickup)

Pretty much this car, except 1978. My dad bought it for me in 1982 when I went 300 miles away to college. Pretty sure he paid $800 for it and it lasted me until 1986. I remember having to work the heater/fan with a vice grip. True character builder.

 

[Mummy4]

Fiat Strada

Well, there's a google search that made me laugh. You really drove one of these?
Which year/model (pleasesaypickup, pleasesaypickup)

Pretty much this car, except 1978. My dad bought it for me in 1982 when I went 300 miles away to college. Pretty sure he paid $800 for it and it lasted me until 1986. I remember having to work the heater/fan with a vice grip. True character builder.

saved money and bought this powder blue '76 Triumph Spitfire in '79 ...after 3 starters and many times stranded on the side of the road after it just "quit" and I had to short the starter with a giant screwdriver to get it started again ...

I totaled it.

having spent my savings and having little money - I managed to buy one of these beauties - a '73 Ford Pinto Station Wagon - "Woody" edition for $250 from a shirtless guy with hair down to his waist and a fresh knife scar on his forehead.

it was full of rust spots and a few holes and the front right headlight had lost the trim piece and was held in place by a hooked spring coil and tended to jiggle when you went over 50mph.

A month or two after the purchase the knob that was welded to the inside of the car where the driver's door closed - rusted through and fell into the cavity of the inside of the car. As a result, in order to keep the door closed - I had to wrap the seatbelt outside the doorframe and back around the driver's seat and latch it.

Also as a result of that, I couldn't open/close the door - so I had to "Starsky & Hutch" jump through the car window to get in and out of the car - unless I wanted to get in the passenger side and proceed to try and hop over the console.

a couple months later, the muffler tailpipe rusted through, it became virtually undrivable when this happened - had almost no power and was extremely loud. So I had to get handy with cutting the tops/bottoms off of cans and "mending" it with a couple of "C" clamps.

how long did I have to do this? 3 ****ing years. that car lasted 3 years thank gawd.

that was a character builder.

 

[BassNBrew]

Fiat Strada

Well, there's a google search that made me laugh. You really drove one of these?
Which year/model (pleasesaypickup, pleasesaypickup)

Pretty much this car, except 1978. My dad bought it for me in 1982 when I went 300 miles away to college. Pretty sure he paid $800 for it and it lasted me until 1986. I remember having to work the heater/fan with a vice grip. True character builder.

Amateur.

https://classics.autotrader.com/classic-cars/1976/amc/pacer/101749407 Cost me $300. Wipers didn't work so I tied two ropes out each window to the wipers and the passenger and would basically jerk off to see out the windshield when it rained. Who know I should have kept it.

 

[pollardsvision]

@CarDealershipGuy tweeted that Capital One is pulling their floor plans and has plans to get out of the inventory lending game.

He pulled the tweet because Twitter went Twitter.
But it appears that what the original tweet says remains true.

Either way, there's a truckload of bad car loans floating out there right now, and they continue to get made. If I were a bank, I wouldn't want to be loaning too much money to buyers or dealers right now.

I don't know what the car market equivalent to the '08 mortgage crisis is, but something like that has to be coming.

 

[massraider]

@CarDealershipGuy tweeted that Capital One is pulling their floor plans and has plans to get out of the inventory lending game.

He pulled the tweet because Twitter went Twitter.
But it appears that what the original tweet says remains true.

Either way, there's a truckload of bad car loans floating out there right now, and they continue to get made. If I were a bank, I wouldn't want to be loaning too much money to buyers or dealers right now.

I don't know what the car market equivalent to the '08 mortgage crisis is, but something like that has to be coming.

Highly recommend his podcast on this.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

@CarDealershipGuy tweeted that Capital One is pulling their floor plans and has plans to get out of the inventory lending game.

He pulled the tweet because Twitter went Twitter.
But it appears that what the original tweet says remains true.

Either way, there's a truckload of bad car loans floating out there right now, and they continue to get made. If I were a bank, I wouldn't want to be loaning too much money to buyers or dealers right now.

I don't know what the car market equivalent to the '08 mortgage crisis is, but something like that has to be coming.

I’d love to figure out how to capitalize on this.

 

[pollardsvision]

@CarDealershipGuy tweeted that Capital One is pulling their floor plans and has plans to get out of the inventory lending game.

He pulled the tweet because Twitter went Twitter.
But it appears that what the original tweet says remains true.

Either way, there's a truckload of bad car loans floating out there right now, and they continue to get made. If I were a bank, I wouldn't want to be loaning too much money to buyers or dealers right now.

I don't know what the car market equivalent to the '08 mortgage crisis is, but something like that has to be coming.

Highly recommend his podcast on this.

Thanks for the rec. I listened to it and it's very good. I'm only familiar with him from you guys recommending him, and other YouTubers/podcasters referencing him (I stay away from Twitter for my mental health).

I didn't know that he had only recently gotten into podcasting. He seems like a good, knowledgeable dude and certainly worth a spot in the rotation.

 

[MTskibum]

@CarDealershipGuy tweeted that Capital One is pulling their floor plans and has plans to get out of the inventory lending game.

He pulled the tweet because Twitter went Twitter.
But it appears that what the original tweet says remains true.

Either way, there's a truckload of bad car loans floating out there right now, and they continue to get made. If I were a bank, I wouldn't want to be loaning too much money to buyers or dealers right now.

I don't know what the car market equivalent to the '08 mortgage crisis is, but something like that has to be coming.

Highly recommend his podcast on this.

A counter argument would be made by JP morgan, below, they are not forecasting a crash. I am not sure what to think, I have read articles from both sides and they both make good points.

The strongest argument in favor of prices not crashing would be the very limited supply that has happened over the last few years. They have been selling 20% less new cars over the last 3 years compared to before the pandemic. That is 6 million late model used cars that are missing from the market. Generally speaking the law of supply/demand is fairly consistent, lower supply with similar demand causes prices to rise.

In addition it does not look like new vehicle production is yet back to normal, especially for the korean manufacturers and Toyota/Honda. They will continue to supply less new vehicles for the foreseeable future.

There have been people staying out of the vehicle market because of the spike in prices. I think they will enter back into the car market as the prices start dipping any amount. This should prevent a crash.


Edit: I also reserve right to change my mind as new information comes out. I may post a completely contradictory view in this same thread in the future, who knows. This is my opinion today though.

Inflation and the auto industry: When will car prices drop?

J.P. Morgan Research explores the factors driving up vehicle prices and when inflationary pressures will abate.

www.jpmorgan.com

 

[MTskibum]

@CarDealershipGuy tweeted that Capital One is pulling their floor plans and has plans to get out of the inventory lending game.

He pulled the tweet because Twitter went Twitter.
But it appears that what the original tweet says remains true.

Either way, there's a truckload of bad car loans floating out there right now, and they continue to get made. If I were a bank, I wouldn't want to be loaning too much money to buyers or dealers right now.

I don't know what the car market equivalent to the '08 mortgage crisis is, but something like that has to be coming.

I’d love to figure out how to capitalize on this.

I would stay away from Tesla, they lead the way in profit margin and can cut cost on their vehicles dramatically to gain market share. This would hurt the value of new cars.

Musk is on record of stating he wanted to grow new sales by 50%, I think that a new/used tesla is going to be much cheaper at the end of the year.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

 

[belljr]

Will it fail emissions ?

For as little as you drive it I would hold onto it until next year if possible,

Do you want a new car?

 

[MTskibum]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

What model of car do you have?

 

[pollardsvision]

@CarDealershipGuy tweeted that Capital One is pulling their floor plans and has plans to get out of the inventory lending game.

He pulled the tweet because Twitter went Twitter.
But it appears that what the original tweet says remains true.

Either way, there's a truckload of bad car loans floating out there right now, and they continue to get made. If I were a bank, I wouldn't want to be loaning too much money to buyers or dealers right now.

I don't know what the car market equivalent to the '08 mortgage crisis is, but something like that has to be coming.

Highly recommend his podcast on this.

A counter argument would be made by JP morgan, below, they are not forecasting a crash. I am not sure what to think, I have read articles from both sides and they both make good points.

The strongest argument in favor of prices not crashing would be the very limited supply that has happened over the last few years. They have been selling 20% less new cars over the last 3 years compared to before the pandemic. That is 6 million late model used cars that are missing from the market. Generally speaking the law of supply/demand is fairly consistent, lower supply with similar demand causes prices to rise.

In addition it does not look like new vehicle production is yet back to normal, especially for the korean manufacturers and Toyota/Honda. They will continue to supply less new vehicles for the foreseeable future.

There have been people staying out of the vehicle market because of the spike in prices. I think they will enter back into the car market as the prices start dipping any amount. This should prevent a crash.


Edit: I also reserve right to change my mind as new information comes out. I may post a completely contradictory view in this same thread in the future, who knows. This is my opinion today though.

Inflation and the auto industry: When will car prices drop?

J.P. Morgan Research explores the factors driving up vehicle prices and when inflationary pressures will abate.

www.jpmorgan.com

For this particular story, I'm specifically talking about lenders (like Captial One) and dealer/consumer debt. Consumers and some dealers are being pinched with all the debt, and so banks might start getting a little cautious.

And I agree, high prices are here to stay for a very long time. Manufacturers are enjoying the "make fewer vehicles at much higher prices" model.

And even if production were back up across the board, the effect of all the vehicles that didn't get produced from 2020-2022 will have an impact on the new and used car market for quite a while.

 

[pollardsvision]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

 

[pollardsvision]

But yeah, if you do get the itch to upgrade.....wait if you can.

Manufacturers really aren't that interested in selling a bunch of cars right now. And they absolutely aren't interested in leasing them right now.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Thx - this is my instinct as well. I’m super frugal in general, and really hate spending money on depreciating assets (like cars). Every $ that I spend now is an extended amount of time I have to keep working to reach retirement. Obviously if taken to an extreme that could be a bad mindset — but my bias is to let it play out.

The only tricky part is the emissions test. I’m guessing it will cost a bunch of money to avoid failing an emissions test — so that might make the decision for me.

Appreciate the input.

 

[culdeus]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Thx - this is my instinct as well. I’m super frugal in general, and really hate spending money on depreciating assets (like cars). Every $ that I spend now is an extended amount of time I have to keep working to reach retirement. Obviously if taken to an extreme that could be a bad mindset — but my bias is to let it play out.

The only tricky part is the emissions test. I’m guessing it will cost a bunch of money to avoid failing an emissions test — so that might make the decision for me.

Appreciate the input.

They nerfed the emissions test in Texas, because we love pollution not because we love poor people.

 

[belljr]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Thx - this is my instinct as well. I’m super frugal in general, and really hate spending money on depreciating assets (like cars). Every $ that I spend now is an extended amount of time I have to keep working to reach retirement. Obviously if taken to an extreme that could be a bad mindset — but my bias is to let it play out.

The only tricky part is the emissions test. I’m guessing it will cost a bunch of money to avoid failing an emissions test — so that might make the decision for me.

Appreciate the input.

I was driving a 2009 traverse.... The only reason I bailed on it now was repairs were piling up

 

[Hawks64]

But yeah, if you do get the itch to upgrade.....wait if you can.

Manufacturers really aren't that interested in selling a bunch of cars right now. And they absolutely aren't interested in leasing them right now.

That's interesting, having zero issues with my new car being leased. Not sure why you think mfgs aren't interested in selling cars.

 

[MTskibum]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Thx - this is my instinct as well. I’m super frugal in general, and really hate spending money on depreciating assets (like cars). Every $ that I spend now is an extended amount of time I have to keep working to reach retirement. Obviously if taken to an extreme that could be a bad mindset — but my bias is to let it play out.

The only tricky part is the emissions test. I’m guessing it will cost a bunch of money to avoid failing an emissions test — so that might make the decision for me.

Appreciate the input.

What is the model of car and i assume if you are worried about the emissions it is because the check engine light is on?

You can go to autozone have them pull the codes(or you can buy a reader from amazon), and then you can google those codes to get an idea of how much it will cost to fix the problem.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

@CarDealershipGuy tweeted that Capital One is pulling their floor plans and has plans to get out of the inventory lending game.

He pulled the tweet because Twitter went Twitter.
But it appears that what the original tweet says remains true.

Either way, there's a truckload of bad car loans floating out there right now, and they continue to get made. If I were a bank, I wouldn't want to be loaning too much money to buyers or dealers right now.

I don't know what the car market equivalent to the '08 mortgage crisis is, but something like that has to be coming.

Highly recommend his podcast on this.

A counter argument would be made by JP morgan, below, they are not forecasting a crash. I am not sure what to think, I have read articles from both sides and they both make good points.

The strongest argument in favor of prices not crashing would be the very limited supply that has happened over the last few years. They have been selling 20% less new cars over the last 3 years compared to before the pandemic. That is 6 million late model used cars that are missing from the market. Generally speaking the law of supply/demand is fairly consistent, lower supply with similar demand causes prices to rise.

In addition it does not look like new vehicle production is yet back to normal, especially for the korean manufacturers and Toyota/Honda. They will continue to supply less new vehicles for the foreseeable future.

There have been people staying out of the vehicle market because of the spike in prices. I think they will enter back into the car market as the prices start dipping any amount. This should prevent a crash.


Edit: I also reserve right to change my mind as new information comes out. I may post a completely contradictory view in this same thread in the future, who knows. This is my opinion today though.

Inflation and the auto industry: When will car prices drop?

J.P. Morgan Research explores the factors driving up vehicle prices and when inflationary pressures will abate.

www.jpmorgan.com

JP Morgan has not had a track record of being on the level. Ever. The actual John Peirpont Morgan got shot in his own home. The current company just paid out almost a billion in fines for market manipulation.

Evil and powerful. Not trustworthy.

 

[MTskibum]

JP Morgan has not had a track record of being on the level. Ever. The actual John Peirpont Morgan got shot in his own home. The current company just paid out almost a billion in fines for market manipulation.

Evil and powerful. Not trustworthy.

All large companies have issues. The company i work for was fined 200 million dollars for dealing with sanctioned countries, which i do not believe makes my opinion any less valid.

There are 256,000 employees at JP morgan and the group that researches cars may or may not have an agenda, it is impossible to tell from that article, that is why you need to read multiple news sources.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Thx - this is my instinct as well. I’m super frugal in general, and really hate spending money on depreciating assets (like cars). Every $ that I spend now is an extended amount of time I have to keep working to reach retirement. Obviously if taken to an extreme that could be a bad mindset — but my bias is to let it play out.

The only tricky part is the emissions test. I’m guessing it will cost a bunch of money to avoid failing an emissions test — so that might make the decision for me.

Appreciate the input.

What is the model of car and i assume if you are worried about the emissions it is because the check engine light is on?

You can go to autozone have them pull the codes(or you can buy a reader from amazon), and then you can google those codes to get an idea of how much it will cost to fix the problem.

anf if a light is on, you can reset it, drive the car at varying speeds for 30-45 minutes and then get it tested. It will probably pass. This works…allegedly.

 

[belljr]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Thx - this is my instinct as well. I’m super frugal in general, and really hate spending money on depreciating assets (like cars). Every $ that I spend now is an extended amount of time I have to keep working to reach retirement. Obviously if taken to an extreme that could be a bad mindset — but my bias is to let it play out.

The only tricky part is the emissions test. I’m guessing it will cost a bunch of money to avoid failing an emissions test — so that might make the decision for me.

Appreciate the input.

What is the model of car and i assume if you are worried about the emissions it is because the check engine light is on?

You can go to autozone have them pull the codes(or you can buy a reader from amazon), and then you can google those codes to get an idea of how much it will cost to fix the problem.

anf if a light is on, you can reset it, drive the car at varying speeds for 30-45 minutes and then get it tested. It will probably pass. This works…allegedly.

Until the light comes back on 10 minutes after you did this and also starts blinking .....then it's time lol

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Thx - this is my instinct as well. I’m super frugal in general, and really hate spending money on depreciating assets (like cars). Every $ that I spend now is an extended amount of time I have to keep working to reach retirement. Obviously if taken to an extreme that could be a bad mindset — but my bias is to let it play out.

The only tricky part is the emissions test. I’m guessing it will cost a bunch of money to avoid failing an emissions test — so that might make the decision for me.

Appreciate the input.

What is the model of car and i assume if you are worried about the emissions it is because the check engine light is on?

You can go to autozone have them pull the codes(or you can buy a reader from amazon), and then you can google those codes to get an idea of how much it will cost to fix the problem.

anf if a light is on, you can reset it, drive the car at varying speeds for 30-45 minutes and then get it tested. It will probably pass. This works…allegedly.

Until the light comes back on 10 minutes after you did this and also starts blinking .....then it's time lol

This is a possibility as well.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Thx - this is my instinct as well. I’m super frugal in general, and really hate spending money on depreciating assets (like cars). Every $ that I spend now is an extended amount of time I have to keep working to reach retirement. Obviously if taken to an extreme that could be a bad mindset — but my bias is to let it play out.

The only tricky part is the emissions test. I’m guessing it will cost a bunch of money to avoid failing an emissions test — so that might make the decision for me.

Appreciate the input.

What is the model of car and i assume if you are worried about the emissions it is because the check engine light is on?

You can go to autozone have them pull the codes(or you can buy a reader from amazon), and then you can google those codes to get an idea of how much it will cost to fix the problem.

A BMW 535. The only “nice car” I’ve ever owned in my life.

Appreciate the suggestions, super helpful!!

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Oh, and no, the check engine light isn’t on. My wife told me that, based on her research, the car will fail an emissions test. I have no idea if that is true — just what she has told me. It won’t happen until December, so I’ve mostly ignored the topic.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Oh, and no, the check engine light isn’t on. My wife told me that, based on her research, the car will fail an emissions test. I have no idea if that is true — just what she has told me. It won’t happen until December, so I’ve mostly ignored the topic.

I’d bet it passes.

 

[MTskibum]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Oh, and no, the check engine light isn’t on. My wife told me that, based on her research, the car will fail an emissions test. I have no idea if that is true — just what she has told me. It won’t happen until December, so I’ve mostly ignored the topic.

If the check engine light isn't on it should pass.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Oh, and no, the check engine light isn’t on. My wife told me that, based on her research, the car will fail an emissions test. I have no idea if that is true — just what she has told me. It won’t happen until December, so I’ve mostly ignored the topic.

If the check engine light isn't on it should pass.

This is partly why I came to the FFA instead of listening to my wife.

 

[pollardsvision]

But yeah, if you do get the itch to upgrade.....wait if you can.

Manufacturers really aren't that interested in selling a bunch of cars right now. And they absolutely aren't interested in leasing them right now.

That's interesting, having zero issues with my new car being leased. Not sure why you think mfgs aren't interested in selling cars.

Obviously, they want to sell "some" cars.

But the vast majority of manufacturers seem to be shifting to a lower volume/higher profit per unit strategy. It started out of necessity, but most seem to be sticking with it even though they have the capacity to build more vehicles.

13 million vehicles got sold in 2022. That's right in between 2019 (17 million) and depths of the Great Recession (2009, 10.5 million). Automakers do not want to ever sell 17-18 million vehicles a year again.

It would only take a few automakers to buck the trend, but if that doesn't happen, the major manufacturers are perfectly happy to sit on $50K cars and $90K trucks for however long it takes for the suckers to walk onto the lot. Dealers may not love that, but most manufacturers are trying find a way to cut them out anyway.

 

[massraider]

But the vast majority of manufacturers seem to be shifting to a lower volume/higher profit per unit strategy. It started out of necessity, but most seem to be sticking with it even though they have the capacity to build more vehicles.

13 million vehicles got sold in 2022. That's right in between 2019 (17 million) and depths of the Great Recession (2009, 10.5 million). Automakers do not want to ever sell 17-18 million vehicles a year again.

It would only take a few automakers to buck the trend, but if that doesn't happen, the major manufacturers are perfectly happy to sit on $50K cars and $90K trucks for however long it takes for the suckers to walk onto the lot

That Car Dealership Guy podcast mentioned this.

His point was, if you force people to buy other cars, you might lose them forever. Honda and Toyota people can become Kia people, quite easily.

Maybe the car companies can goose profits, but leaving market share on the table long term could backfire. Or maybe there is some sweet spot where you are not holding a bunch of inventory.

 

[MTskibum]

But the vast majority of manufacturers seem to be shifting to a lower volume/higher profit per unit strategy. It started out of necessity, but most seem to be sticking with it even though they have the capacity to build more vehicles.

13 million vehicles got sold in 2022. That's right in between 2019 (17 million) and depths of the Great Recession (2009, 10.5 million). Automakers do not want to ever sell 17-18 million vehicles a year again.

It would only take a few automakers to buck the trend, but if that doesn't happen, the major manufacturers are perfectly happy to sit on $50K cars and $90K trucks for however long it takes for the suckers to walk onto the lot

That Car Dealership Guy podcast mentioned this.

His point was, if you force people to buy other cars, you might lose them forever. Honda and Toyota people can become Kia people, quite easily.

Maybe the car companies can goose profits, but leaving market share on the table long term could backfire. Or maybe there is some sweet spot where you are not holding a bunch of inventory.

In 2018 I bought a Ram 1500 with a 47k MSRP for 32k out the door. I think they will be one of the first to try and go cheap to buy marketshare again, just based on their past history. Based on the below link they are already starting to get a glut of inventory.

Tesla is another car company with more inventory onhand than they have had before. They will cut prices.

Dealer Inventory Supply Continues to Grow

Some manufacturers may cut prices to keep models flowing through dealers’ lots, reports Cox.

www.wardsauto.com

Despite the perception that new vehicles remain in relatively short supply, several Detroit Three brands are above the industry average of 55 days’ supply, including GMC, Ford, Lincoln and Ram, while Dodge is about 100 days, and Jeep, Buick and Chrysler are above 100 days, according to Cox Automotive.

 

[pollardsvision]

But the vast majority of manufacturers seem to be shifting to a lower volume/higher profit per unit strategy. It started out of necessity, but most seem to be sticking with it even though they have the capacity to build more vehicles.

13 million vehicles got sold in 2022. That's right in between 2019 (17 million) and depths of the Great Recession (2009, 10.5 million). Automakers do not want to ever sell 17-18 million vehicles a year again.

It would only take a few automakers to buck the trend, but if that doesn't happen, the major manufacturers are perfectly happy to sit on $50K cars and $90K trucks for however long it takes for the suckers to walk onto the lot

That Car Dealership Guy podcast mentioned this.

His point was, if you force people to buy other cars, you might lose them forever. Honda and Toyota people can become Kia people, quite easily.

Maybe the car companies can goose profits, but leaving market share on the table long term could backfire. Or maybe there is some sweet spot where you are not holding a bunch of inventory.

In 2018 I bought a Ram 1500 with a 47k MSRP for 32k out the door. I think they will be one of the first to try and go cheap to buy marketshare again, just based on their past history. Based on the below link they are already starting to get a glut of inventory.

Tesla is another car company with more inventory onhand than they have had before. They will cut prices.

Dealer Inventory Supply Continues to Grow

Some manufacturers may cut prices to keep models flowing through dealers’ lots, reports Cox.

www.wardsauto.com

Despite the perception that new vehicles remain in relatively short supply, several Detroit Three brands are above the industry average of 55 days’ supply, including GMC, Ford, Lincoln and Ram, while Dodge is about 100 days, and Jeep, Buick and Chrysler are above 100 days, according to Cox Automotive.

From your mouth to God's ears. Stellantis brands are loaded up on inventory. Sitting on it for now. But if they try to meet the consumer where they are at, as they have in the past, they could force Ford/GM's hand. Ford/GM, of course, don't want a world where we have a lot of buyers paying reasonable prices.

And you mention Tesla. Holy cow, how have we entered a world where Tesla could help bring prices down, but here we are.

 

[Beef Ravioli Part 2]

I have a buddy who is a car buyer for dealerships in the Columbus, OH area. He told me there were 700 cars repoed in Columbus last month. He said banks are trying to work with people but to many bad loans and people have quit paying.

I asked him if used car prices are going to start to drop because of more inventory. He said that he thought the prices would have come down more than they have. Does not anticipate the prices dropping.

 

[Hawks64]

But yeah, if you do get the itch to upgrade.....wait if you can.

Manufacturers really aren't that interested in selling a bunch of cars right now. And they absolutely aren't interested in leasing them right now.

That's interesting, having zero issues with my new car being leased. Not sure why you think mfgs aren't interested in selling cars.

Obviously, they want to sell "some" cars.

But the vast majority of manufacturers seem to be shifting to a lower volume/higher profit per unit strategy. It started out of necessity, but most seem to be sticking with it even though they have the capacity to build more vehicles.

13 million vehicles got sold in 2022. That's right in between 2019 (17 million) and depths of the Great Recession (2009, 10.5 million). Automakers do not want to ever sell 17-18 million vehicles a year again.

It would only take a few automakers to buck the trend, but if that doesn't happen, the major manufacturers are perfectly happy to sit on $50K cars and $90K trucks for however long it takes for the suckers to walk onto the lot. Dealers may not love that, but most manufacturers are trying find a way to cut them out anyway.

Interesting, the dealership where I am leasing my next car is waiting on tons of inventory that is either being mfg or on the production schedule. Seems like they are still behind as they can see where cars are at during the mfg process.

 

[MTskibum]

Interesting, the dealership where I am leasing my next car is waiting on tons of inventory that is either being mfg or on the production schedule. Seems like they are still behind as they can see where cars are at during the mfg process.

What brand of car, is it a Toyota, Honda, Kia, or Hyundai?

Those brands do not have much inventory at the moment.

 

[pollardsvision]

I have a buddy who is a car buyer for dealerships in the Columbus, OH area. He told me there were 700 cars repoed in Columbus last month. He said banks are trying to work with people but to many bad loans and people have quit paying.

I asked him if used car prices are going to start to drop because of more inventory. He said that he thought the prices would have come down more than they have. Does not anticipate the prices dropping.

Yeah the repo's probably don't help the used car market that much.

They generally aren't very desirable cars after they've been neglected.

Probably not a way for used car prices to start coming down until we have more trade-ins from new car sales. Who knows when that will happen.

 

[Nugget]

But yeah, if you do get the itch to upgrade.....wait if you can.

Manufacturers really aren't that interested in selling a bunch of cars right now. And they absolutely aren't interested in leasing them right now.

That's interesting, having zero issues with my new car being leased. Not sure why you think mfgs aren't interested in selling cars.

Obviously, they want to sell "some" cars.

But the vast majority of manufacturers seem to be shifting to a lower volume/higher profit per unit strategy. It started out of necessity, but most seem to be sticking with it even though they have the capacity to build more vehicles.

13 million vehicles got sold in 2022. That's right in between 2019 (17 million) and depths of the Great Recession (2009, 10.5 million). Automakers do not want to ever sell 17-18 million vehicles a year again.

It would only take a few automakers to buck the trend, but if that doesn't happen, the major manufacturers are perfectly happy to sit on $50K cars and $90K trucks for however long it takes for the suckers to walk onto the lot. Dealers may not love that, but most manufacturers are trying find a way to cut them out anyway.

Current call for 2023 is 15.6M. 2024 is 16.2M.

Stellantis is probably 50% higher than #2 on incentive spend in March, but mostly on Ram. They don’t have the right mix of truck and have configurations that customers and fleets weren’t really interested in.

 

[Hawks64]

Interesting, the dealership where I am leasing my next car is waiting on tons of inventory that is either being mfg or on the production schedule. Seems like they are still behind as they can see where cars are at during the mfg process.

What brand of car, is it a Toyota, Honda, Kia, or Hyundai?

Those brands do not have much inventory at the moment.

Mercedes.

 

[Snotbubbles]

@CarDealershipGuy tweeted that Capital One is pulling their floor plans and has plans to get out of the inventory lending game.

He pulled the tweet because Twitter went Twitter.
But it appears that what the original tweet says remains true.

Either way, there's a truckload of bad car loans floating out there right now, and they continue to get made. If I were a bank, I wouldn't want to be loaning too much money to buyers or dealers right now.

I don't know what the car market equivalent to the '08 mortgage crisis is, but something like that has to be coming.

The problem is pushing the loans out 72 and 84 months. If you buy used, you could be in deep doo doo if the car needs costly repairs.

 

[belljr]

But yeah, if you do get the itch to upgrade.....wait if you can.

Manufacturers really aren't that interested in selling a bunch of cars right now. And they absolutely aren't interested in leasing them right now.

That's interesting, having zero issues with my new car being leased. Not sure why you think mfgs aren't interested in selling cars.

Obviously, they want to sell "some" cars.

But the vast majority of manufacturers seem to be shifting to a lower volume/higher profit per unit strategy. It started out of necessity, but most seem to be sticking with it even though they have the capacity to build more vehicles.

13 million vehicles got sold in 2022. That's right in between 2019 (17 million) and depths of the Great Recession (2009, 10.5 million). Automakers do not want to ever sell 17-18 million vehicles a year again.

It would only take a few automakers to buck the trend, but if that doesn't happen, the major manufacturers are perfectly happy to sit on $50K cars and $90K trucks for however long it takes for the suckers to walk onto the lot. Dealers may not love that, but most manufacturers are trying find a way to cut them out anyway.

Current call for 2023 is 15.6M. 2024 is 16.2M.

Stellantis is probably 50% higher than #2 on incentive spend in March, but mostly on Ram. They don’t have the right mix of truck and have configurations that customers and fleets weren’t really interested in.

The biggest issue I see with the numbers that doesn't "add up" is inventory is still so low. So while they are selling similar numbers now it's from people ordering and waiting 4 months for their car. I would guess profits are way up compared to past years

 

[Buckna]

Went to a couple of Subaru dealerships this past weekend. Two had 4~5 Outbacks in stock, the third one had only 2 total and they were displays not available for test drives (one inside the dealership, the other up on a ramp when you first drove-in.) Nearly all the ones in stock were the highest end models with all the bells and whistles. Very few of the other models like Forester or Crosstrek onsite as well.

 

[fruity pebbles]

8 month wait on a Chevy Bolt. Luckily I don’t need it right away.

 

[pollardsvision]

But yeah, if you do get the itch to upgrade.....wait if you can.

Manufacturers really aren't that interested in selling a bunch of cars right now. And they absolutely aren't interested in leasing them right now.

That's interesting, having zero issues with my new car being leased. Not sure why you think mfgs aren't interested in selling cars.

Obviously, they want to sell "some" cars.

But the vast majority of manufacturers seem to be shifting to a lower volume/higher profit per unit strategy. It started out of necessity, but most seem to be sticking with it even though they have the capacity to build more vehicles.

13 million vehicles got sold in 2022. That's right in between 2019 (17 million) and depths of the Great Recession (2009, 10.5 million). Automakers do not want to ever sell 17-18 million vehicles a year again.

It would only take a few automakers to buck the trend, but if that doesn't happen, the major manufacturers are perfectly happy to sit on $50K cars and $90K trucks for however long it takes for the suckers to walk onto the lot. Dealers may not love that, but most manufacturers are trying find a way to cut them out anyway.

Current call for 2023 is 15.6M. 2024 is 16.2M.

Stellantis is probably 50% higher than #2 on incentive spend in March, but mostly on Ram. They don’t have the right mix of truck and have configurations that customers and fleets weren’t really interested in.

The biggest issue I see with the numbers that doesn't "add up" is inventory is still so low. So while they are selling similar numbers now it's from people ordering and waiting 4 months for their car. I would guess profits are way up compared to past years

That's true for other brands, but from everything I've seen, Ram and a lot Stellantis brands have inventory really piling up.

 

[culdeus]

Id4 ordered in September now will be ready in... August. Maybe.

 

[matttyl]

Looking for advice from the FFA:

My car is 12 years old now, still runs great and is in pretty good shape. I bought it in 2014 (it’s a 2011) and deliberately bought a used car past warranty because my former company paid for all maintenance and repairs. So basically I was incentivized to buy a used car. (Sweet deal, no complaints) I used to drive about 20-25k miles per year mostly for work, combo of suburban Chicago commuting along with the random 4-5 hour trips to insert name of Midwest city.

Fast forward, I left that job 18 months ago and now work for a NY-based company. I’m either work from home, or on a plane to NY. Still have the same car, but the new company doesn’t pay for any of my costs (zero complaints, just stating facts). Most weeks I’ll drive a total of maybe 25-30 miles on the weekend going to the gym, picking up dinner, whatever. Probably every other month I’ll take a 3-hour drive (each way) to Green Bay to visit my parents.

The car will, at some point, need continued maintenance and repairs. It is also due for an emissions test in December 2023, which it will certainly fail.

Thoughts from the crew? New car? Used car? Lease? Keep the old one and just dodge the emissions test?

Nothing you mentioned in this would point to buying another car unless you just want one.

12 years isn't that old for a car. I only drive old vehicles, and the maintenance costs are never as much as most would think.

In your case, unless you are just itching to spend some money which is fine, I'd just drive that thing and do the routine maintenance until it starts to have a bunch of problems you don't want to fool with.

That literally might not happen for another decade or so.

And if it starts acting up before then, you can take an Uber to the gym on the weekend or rent a car to go GB every once in awhile until you decide what to do.

Thx - this is my instinct as well. I’m super frugal in general, and really hate spending money on depreciating assets (like cars). Every $ that I spend now is an extended amount of time I have to keep working to reach retirement. Obviously if taken to an extreme that could be a bad mindset — but my bias is to let it play out.

The only tricky part is the emissions test. I’m guessing it will cost a bunch of money to avoid failing an emissions test — so that might make the decision for me.

Appreciate the input.

What is the model of car and i assume if you are worried about the emissions it is because the check engine light is on?

You can go to autozone have them pull the codes(or you can buy a reader from amazon), and then you can google those codes to get an idea of how much it will cost to fix the problem.

A BMW 535. The only “nice car” I’ve ever owned in my life.

Appreciate the suggestions, super helpful!!

BMWs will run forever. There is “snake oil in a can” stuff you can put in your gas tank prior to an emissions test which can help. If there is no CEL you should be fine, but often times a simple oxygen sensor will fix any emissions issue. Drive it till December, test early in the month with crossed fingers and go from there.

 

[Bozeman Bruiser]

A BMW 535. The only “nice car” I’ve ever owned in my life.

The N55 is one of BMWs most reliable engines, if maintained properly which it sounds like your former company took care of. The ZF8 is one of the best transmissions on the market and used by dozens of manufacturers. The biggest maintenance issues are oil and coolant leaks, which when addressed early are not terribly expensive. The electric water pump and cheap plastic expansion tank are pieces of **** though and depending on driving style/conditions/mileage can cause headaches every 60k miles, moreso for someone in the southwest than someone in Chicago. One of the reasons BMWs have such a bad rap is the original owner leases, the next owner buys because of depreciation but can't afford to keep it maintained and things snowball until they have $5k in deferred maintenance, so they unload the vehicle and it becomes someone else's problem who sees the $10k pricetag and thinks they are getting a screaming deal. On the enthusiast forums and FB groups there are plenty of people putting 200k+ miles on older BMWs, although they do most of the maintenance themselves to save money.

Also the F10 is a good looking BMW with classic styling. It is no E39, the pinnacle of BMW design, but they got rid of the Bangle butt and scrunched front end from the E60.

As for the check engine light, Autozone and O'Reillys can pull codes for you but they are generic codes and do not include all of the specific BMW codes. It is a good place to start though. There is a good chance it is the O2 sensor, which if I remember correctly is around $1k to replace at the dealership, probably less at an indepenent shop. They have a front and a rear though so if both are bad that could be double.

If you are only driving 5k-7k miles a year you could keep it running for another 5 years or more with minimal maintenance cost assuming everything is up to date, other than an oil change once a year and a new set of tires at some point. Much cheaper than a new $500/mo or more note and more practical in my view given the amount of driving you currently do.

A pretty decent resource if you don't want to hassle with FB or forums is the r/BMWTech subreddit, dozens of questions are asked everyday and answered by actual BMW Techs, BMW enthusiasts, and YouTube mechanics.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com