Gr00vus
Footballguy
Might take a year to work through the cap issues they're facing and get back on a decent footing talent wise.
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**** Chargers Interminable Thread - Because No One Demanded It **** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gr00vus
- Start date
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
I’m surprised they made it happen. I’m hopeful, but realistic. Looking forward to the offseason shenanigans.
Tau837
Footballguy
Seems unlikely but they blocked him from interviewing for the Bears OC job a few days ago which seems to make it at least possible, though more likely they wanted to retain him until Harbaugh was official.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Congrats man, you nailed it.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
I was only basing my argument on the flimsiest of foundations: forty years of history.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Kellen Moore moves to Philly. Though the details may have been different, to me, the end result wasn't an improvement over Lombardi. Some of the player utilization decisions on offense were real head scratchers.
I like clearing things out to let Harbaugh implement his vision with people of his choosing. Hopefully Ficken fits into his plans.
I like clearing things out to let Harbaugh implement his vision with people of his choosing. Hopefully Ficken fits into his plans.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
have to say i love this move....who did they hire as the o.c. ??
Wingnut
Footballguy
Harbaugh wants to "Jim Rockford it" by living in an RV close to the stadium for a couple months
The NFL is way more fun with this guy in it.
The NFL is way more fun with this guy in it.
Tau837
Footballguy
Antonio Gates, not a hall of famer.
Absolute, 100% BS. Hester getting in over him is a complete ****ing joke. Frankly, same for Andre Johnson.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
Gregg Rosenthal made a great case for Gates on the Inside the NFL podcast yesterday. He mentioned...
- if you put all of those finalists before the voters in 2010 and asked them which one was the most certain to make the Hall, Gates would have been the clear favorite
- the all-time leader in TDs at his position
- not only was he discussed as the best player at his position in his era, he remains in the discussion for best player at his position of all time
- he was a 1st-team All-Pro three years in a row that coincided with Tony Gonzales' peak.
Tau837
Footballguy
I posted this on Saturday and updated it on Sunday. Meant to link it here and forgot: 2024 Roster Thoughts - Super Bowl Eve
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
Gr00vus
Footballguy
This roster sucks. You should post it in the Raider thread as a warning about Telesco's track record, but they seem content to blame Telesco's lousy job on the ownership and the coaches (whom he of course helped choose) (also I don't think their ownership is much better than the Chargers', the feather in his cap being he was smart enough to move to Vegas, and I don't think their coaching staff is good, so Telesco's environment is basically the same one in which he failed the first time).
I hate the reality of the math in the Bosa/Mack dispositioning, but I can't argue with it. Part of me thinks if you're getting rid of Mack, you may as well get rid of Bosa too, because he's going to age even worse than Mack, there's no sense in retaining him long term for a rebuild if you can get anything for him in a trade this offseason.
Humor me with Gilman one more time. What does this look like if they keep Gilman and get rid of Fox somehow? I don't have time to look at numbers, but it feels like Gilman is a better WAR guy than Fox.
Tau837
Footballguy
It wouldn't surprise me if they move both, but trading Mack and keeping Bosa this offseason doesn't equate to keeping Bosa long term. IMO there is a high probability they will be able to trade Bosa for more next offseason than they can today, and they will have presumably gotten another season out of him to boot. I don't see how that isn't a winning decision, though admittedly I am assuming Bosa bounces back and stays mostly healthy, which is obviously not a given.
I definitely think they could get rid of Fox. The Lightning Round podcast, which I like a lot, asserted last week that Fox is not a fit for what Harbaugh wants from his interior DL players, and they assumed he will be cut. He doesn't offer a lot of cap savings, but it's not nothing, so it makes sense if he truly isn't a fit.
As long as they make a number of the big moves discussed in my post and here (whether Bosa and Mack or just one of them), they will have the ability to manipulate the cap enough to keep Gilman. But, here's the thing about letting him go:
- James is better at strong safety than free safety... I mean, he can play FS just fine, but it keeps him further away from the LOS, which reduces his ability to wreak havoc
- But Gilman is also better at SS than FS... though he played well alongside James this season... he probably is not the ideal long term solution to play alongside James
- Gilman also might sign a contract that helps to generate a comp pick if the Chargers let him walk... and Hortiz made it very clear in his introductory press conference that he highly values comp picks... as he should... and as Telesco never did...
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I don't know that I'd want to gamble on Bosa being worth more next off season if there's a reasonable offer for him this season. He's not getting better, he's getting worse. If there's a reasonable offer that provides cap relief now...
Tau837
Footballguy
Too early to know if anyone would trade up for QB4 or WR2 or Bowers or OT1 or any other player. I definitely want the Chargers to trade down if possible.
If the Chargers draft at 5 and Harrison is already taken, as of right now I like Bowers better than any other player for them. But I prefer that they trade down to 8-13 and hope to get Bowers there, and, if not, then get BPA there.
Bowers is absolutely going to be one of the top 5 graded players in this draft, and he matches (1) a huge positional need for the Chargers, (2) the Harbaugh/Roman offensive philosophy, and (3) the desire to provide another elite offensive target for Herbert. I would absolutely rather the Chargers draft Bowers than Nabers or Odunze, though I wouldn't be unhappy with either of those guys.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
So hard to draft a TE top five, but this seems like a great fit for Bowers. Roman used Andrews a ton in Baltimore and this seems like a no brainer if they stay at five.
Tau837
Footballguy
Follow up post: 2024 Roster Thoughts - Possible Free Agent Moves
Also some good stuff in the comments of both posts.
I have reached the conclusion that the team needs to trade both Mack and Bosa (in addition to releasing Williams and Kendricks).
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I still think it’s Bowers
Like many people I think my best guess/prediction right now is that the draft starts with 3 QB's, not necessarily by the teams currently picking 1-3 but 3 will go, and then Harrison which would have the draft getting really interesting for when the Chargers are OTC because they could go in a number of directions that make sense, including of course moving back.
Hard team to predict and were you see almost every mock that has the first 3 picks as QB's start to diverge. I personally would guess Alt if they pick, but think they'll want to move back if they can.
They do need a TE badly so I would not be shocked by Bowers but he'd probably be my third prediction behind trading back or Alt, and frankly none of those may be right.
There was some chatter on these boards a few weeks back about the Ravens dealing Andrews or Likely and my thought on that was they'd most likely roll with both of them in 2024 and then move on from the one they don't extend following the 2024 season. Roman(ETA and Hortiz) ending up in LA does make me wonder however if inquiries won't be made now. Also would think they would be a "make sense" candidate to see if they can sign Gus Edwards for relatively cheap.
Hard team to predict and were you see almost every mock that has the first 3 picks as QB's start to diverge. I personally would guess Alt if they pick, but think they'll want to move back if they can.
They do need a TE badly so I would not be shocked by Bowers but he'd probably be my third prediction behind trading back or Alt, and frankly none of those may be right.
There was some chatter on these boards a few weeks back about the Ravens dealing Andrews or Likely and my thought on that was they'd most likely roll with both of them in 2024 and then move on from the one they don't extend following the 2024 season. Roman(ETA and Hortiz) ending up in LA does make me wonder however if inquiries won't be made now. Also would think they would be a "make sense" candidate to see if they can sign Gus Edwards for relatively cheap.
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Tau837
Footballguy
I don't really love taking Alt at 5. First off, it means moving a natural LT to RT, whether Alt or Slater. I know that can be done, but it is a different position that must be learned.
I also don't love it because it means wasting Pipkins. I don't love Pipkins, but he has a cap hit of $8.75M, and they cannot generate any cap savings by releasing or trading him. In the Chargers' current cap situation, I think it makes more sense to see if the new coaching staff can coach him up and allocate that first round pick to one of many other positions of need. If he doesn't play better in 2024, then they can more easily move on from him next season.
Furthermore, I'm skeptical Alt is BPA at 5, with presumably 3 or possibly even 4 QBs off the board before that pick.
I hope they trade back. Depending on where they end up, I could see them drafting Bowers, WR, CB, IDL, or even center if they trade back far enough. Those are all arguably bigger needs for the Chargers right now than RT.
Agree there is a chance they sign Edwards or possibly Justice Hill. I mentioned that was a topic in a recent Guilty As Charged podcast in the second post I linked above.
I also don't love it because it means wasting Pipkins. I don't love Pipkins, but he has a cap hit of $8.75M, and they cannot generate any cap savings by releasing or trading him. In the Chargers' current cap situation, I think it makes more sense to see if the new coaching staff can coach him up and allocate that first round pick to one of many other positions of need. If he doesn't play better in 2024, then they can more easily move on from him next season.
Furthermore, I'm skeptical Alt is BPA at 5, with presumably 3 or possibly even 4 QBs off the board before that pick.
I hope they trade back. Depending on where they end up, I could see them drafting Bowers, WR, CB, IDL, or even center if they trade back far enough. Those are all arguably bigger needs for the Chargers right now than RT.
Agree there is a chance they sign Edwards or possibly Justice Hill. I mentioned that was a topic in a recent Guilty As Charged podcast in the second post I linked above.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
If they make that pick, which I don't think they should, they'd be mental to take Bowers over Nabers in my opinion.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
I have read that scouts think Bowers has blocking issues. With Harbaugh wouldn't that be a negative?
Tau837
Footballguy
It is reasonable to expect Harbaugh/Roman's top 2 TEs to fit the mold he had in SF, where he had Vernon Davis and another blocking TE2, like Vance McDonald. Bowers would fit the Davis TE role, not the McDonald TE role. Bowers' blocking is plenty good enough for that IMO.
rockaction
Footballguy
The reason I liked this post is because of the rookie contract, slotting, and the position premium. I was thinking about it last night and Daniel Jeremiah is making the rounds on Twitter today with a really similar argument. It's because Bowers plays TE, so the rookie slotting doesn't save you as much as a premium as it would an EDGE or QB or WR. Nabers is ultra talented and gives you a cost savings more appropriate for the first round.
Of course, we'll see what Harbaugh and company think of that when the draft rolls around. I just think that the savings on the positional premium behooves LA to take somebody like Nabers rather than a TE. What you do when you take a TE early is that you have a narrow gap between the franchise tag and the slotted value of the TE, so you don't get that much surplus, unlike compared to a WR, whose franchise tag would be much bigger than his slotted salary. The savings can be huge. What you're doing when you take a TE that early is you're paying him close to what the best free agents make at that position. So why not just pay the free agent, really? So goes the argument about the cost savings and positional importance.
The link:
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Hmmm. could be or not be a fit. If in line then yeah no fit. as a hybrid catching TE, would be a fit. We'll see. seems like if you lose bosa and mack the line would need to be addressed at some point.
I tried making that point yesterday in some thread where I was trying to explain why I though Bowers would fall father then people think and was trying to highlight the postional pay scale vs WR's, OT's, QB's and edge players all of which are Bowers main comp which I think pushes him down. Since then I've heard DJ's recent podcast last night were he broke down why he has Bowers going later in his mock draft.
There may not be a team picking inside the top 10 who needs to maximize their cost savings on their roster more then the Chargers. In other words a team with more cap issues. Between that and Bowers lack of big time blocking he just does not seem to make as much sense to me for the Chargers.
Of course DJ works for the Chargers and used to work their new GM. Not that they told him what they are doing, or even know themselves ,but when he's not remotely coming close to thinking Bowers goes that high to that team it's a voice worth listening to.
rockaction
Footballguy
I actually had no idea about his employment history. So he's definitely worth considering, though as you note, he's not the final arbiter or say in what goes on. But if he's thinking about that concept, then surely the guy he used to work for is.
Tau837
Footballguy
This is valid perspective, but it completely ignores performance on the field and positional need.
I completely understand that some believe that positional need should be ignored early in the draft, but I would say it should be weighted appropriately. For example, if the Chargers had the same grade on Bowers and Nabers and Alt, arguably they should weigh positional need/situation as much as positional value/importance.
The Chargers currently have 2 TEs under contract for 2024:
- Donald Parham, who is probably ideally the TE3 in a Harbaugh/Roman offense... not TE1 or TE2 because he can't stay on the field and isn't a good run blocker
- Stone Smartt, who is a practice squad caliber player who should not be on the final 53 man roster for the Chargers or any other team
36. Schultz - Spotrac puts his likely free agent contract at 3 yrs, $34M
46. Henry - Spotrac puts his likely free agent contract at 1 yr, $7.6M
53. Fant
83. Everett - Spotrac puts his likely free agent contract at 2 yrs, $17.4M
113. Trautman
118. Hooper
119. Gesicki
Who is likely to provide better value over the next year, Bowers on the first year of his rookie contract or one of these free agents? It seems possible Schultz could deliver equal or better performance, but Schultz is probably unaffordable for the Chargers.
Over the next 5+ years? I think it's obvious the answer is Bowers, who is possibly going to have the best draft grade of any TE ever.
I also think fit is somewhat underrated in some of these discussions. Bowers is likely a better fit in the Harbaugh/Roman offense than, for example, Nabers. IMO Bowers is more likely to reach his max potential under Harbaugh's coaching staff than Nabers. That should also be a consideration IMO.
This is true for 2024 for sure. But not beyond, at least not as things stand right now. It's a one year problem, but drafting a player like Bowers is a 5+ year decision.
Plus, IMO it's a bit of a misguided application of positional cap savings. If the Chargers draft a rookie at 1.5, they are going to pay what the rookie cap dictates. It doesn't truly matter if that means they pay Bowers or Alt or Nabers, etc. That player will make that amount. IMO the better way to look at it is player combinations, e.g., what is better in the Harbaugh/Roman offense in 2024 (and possibly over a longer period like 4-5 years):
- Nabers + reduced snaps for WRs Palmer, Johnston, Davis + free agent TE Henry at his market price
- Bowers + elimination of TE Smartt from final roster + free agent WR at his market price
Note: I hope the Chargers trade down first and foremost. I'm not pushing for Bowers at 5. But I think he could legimately be BPA (i.e., highest graded player on the board) at 5.
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Tau837
Footballguy
IMO they will have to release Williams and Kendricks for sure. Those two moves would get them cap compliant by March 13, the start of the new league year.
But they will also have to eliminate or significantly reduce the cap hits of at least 2 of these 3 players: Bosa, Mack, Allen. That probably means trading/releasing at least one of them and extending at least one of their contracts.
And they will lose most of their own internal free agents who will get contracts that are too high above veteran minimum salaries for the Chargers to afford... like Ekeler, Everett, Michael Davis, and Gilman.
Maybe that's not a fire sale, but still going to be a tough offseason.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
I was bracing myself for MUCH worse.
But yes, you have a point, increasing the salary cap means other teams have more money to dangle in front of guys the Chargers might have been expecting to cheap out on.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
Chargers.com released their latest Draft Tracker. Here's the breakdown:
Joe Alt, OT, ND - 6
Brock Bowers, TE, UGA - 4
Malik Nabors, WR, LSU - 2
Olu Fashanu, OT, PSU - 2
Joe Alt, OT, ND - 6
Brock Bowers, TE, UGA - 4
Malik Nabors, WR, LSU - 2
Olu Fashanu, OT, PSU - 2
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
I've been hearing that JJ McCarthy might move all the way up to the 4th pick. If so, does that mean Marv is a no-brainer pick at 5? With as many good WRs as will be available in the 1st round, I don't see anyone trading up to get even the best at that position.
Tau837
Footballguy
I would still prefer to trade down and add draft capital, but if they make the pick at 5, I prefer MHJ followed by Bowers.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
... and the Bears might be looking for an elite WR to go with their new QB.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Fields has to land somewhere, and that would seem to result in another team not looking to trade up.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I guess Dissly is mainly a run blocking TE. And I've read opinions that run blocking is a weakness for Bowers. If those things are true, they could be complementary TEs.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
They're bringing Gilman back on an $11M over 2 years deal. Glad to see it.
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