Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Funny, you didn't have any trouble predicting 1000 yards and 6 TDs for Lee Suggs based on his 56 carries last season, and he's competing with William Green and running behind a crummy line for an average team....Colin
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Chris Brown (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
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Enraged Nerfball
Footballguy
Actually I took him 5th in our draft. I'm just playing with you though.There is nothing left to be said, either you think Brown is worth a 4th rounder or you don't. Time will tell. If the coaches come out and say Brown is going to get 60 percent of the touches this year I'll bump him up...until then this is a RBBC. My best guess is that Brown doesn't even make it through the season.Brown '04 = Candidate '03Ya'll know LHUCKS is lurking, right? You will give him a coronary with this kind of talk.
switz
Footballguy
based on what?let's see, a former first round bust, who never panned out with his original team, was all speed, couldn't hold onto the ball going to a completely new team that's in rebuilding mode-vs-a third round pick who played fairly well while backing up a team leader showing enough promise to give the team the confidence to cut said team leader without drafting a replacement and only signing an old veteran RB as insurance playing on a team that is on the cusp of contending for the super bowlyeah their situations are SO similar
LHUCKS
Footballguy
That was before the George news...his ADP will be 4th/3rd round now. These threads pretty much reinforce that.Actually I took him 5th in our draft. I'm just playing with you though.There is nothing left to be said, either you think Brown is worth a 4th rounder or you don't. Time will tell. If the coaches come out and say Brown is going to get 60 percent of the touches this year I'll bump him up...until then this is a RBBC. My best guess is that Brown doesn't even make it through the season.Brown '04 = Candidate '03Ya'll know LHUCKS is lurking, right? You will give him a coronary with this kind of talk.
Banger
Footballguy
I found this post from H.K. on a related thread....
Fisher's quotes on the situation
QUOTE
(On replacing Eddie)
We have got talent at running back on the roster right now. As Floyd mentioned to you we’ll add one and we’ll be fine. This organization is going to have as good a chance of winning a championship right now as we did yesterday. And Eddie George is going to go on and he is going to help contribute to another organization to where they will have a chance to win a championship. We will go on. We have overcome some difficult losses in the past. Fortunately this is not something that took place during the season where your hands are tied. We will replace him as best we can and we will be fine. We are going to continue to run the football and we are not changing our offensive philosophy under any circumstances. We have got a talented young prospect with some unknowns in Chris Brown.
(On changing the running attack)
We have not changed our run philosophy with those other backs that I mentioned to you and have been successful. Chris ran the same running plays last year that Eddie did. Chris averaged 5.8 a carry in the playoffs with the same plays that Eddie did. The question with Chris is he is still an unknown entity or quantity because he hasn’t been there a whole year.
(On Chris Brown)
Chris is going to play. He is going to play much more than he probably would have had Eddie been here. But Chris also is going to split carries with whomever else we are able to agree to terms with.
The highlighted part is the gem that I pulled out of the whole Fisher quote. The Tians run these same plays all year long and they know what Eddie can do and then when they ran Brown using the same plays in the playoffs, on the road, against great run defenses, Brown essentially doubled Georges YPC. That's not insignificant.
Fisher's quotes on the situation
QUOTE
(On replacing Eddie)
We have got talent at running back on the roster right now. As Floyd mentioned to you we’ll add one and we’ll be fine. This organization is going to have as good a chance of winning a championship right now as we did yesterday. And Eddie George is going to go on and he is going to help contribute to another organization to where they will have a chance to win a championship. We will go on. We have overcome some difficult losses in the past. Fortunately this is not something that took place during the season where your hands are tied. We will replace him as best we can and we will be fine. We are going to continue to run the football and we are not changing our offensive philosophy under any circumstances. We have got a talented young prospect with some unknowns in Chris Brown.
(On changing the running attack)
We have not changed our run philosophy with those other backs that I mentioned to you and have been successful. Chris ran the same running plays last year that Eddie did. Chris averaged 5.8 a carry in the playoffs with the same plays that Eddie did. The question with Chris is he is still an unknown entity or quantity because he hasn’t been there a whole year.
(On Chris Brown)
Chris is going to play. He is going to play much more than he probably would have had Eddie been here. But Chris also is going to split carries with whomever else we are able to agree to terms with.
The highlighted part is the gem that I pulled out of the whole Fisher quote. The Tians run these same plays all year long and they know what Eddie can do and then when they ran Brown using the same plays in the playoffs, on the road, against great run defenses, Brown essentially doubled Georges YPC. That's not insignificant.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Both extremely unproven RBs taken way too high in fantasy drafts...and overhyped on these boards. After that there aren't many similarities.based on what?let's see, a former first round bust, who never panned out with his original team, was all speed, couldn't hold onto the ball going to a completely new team that's in rebuilding mode-vs-a third round pick who played fairly well while backing up a team leader showing enough promise to give the team the confidence to cut said team leader without drafting a replacement and only signing an old veteran RB as insurance playing on a team that is on the cusp of contending for the super bowlyeah their situations are SO similar
Enraged Nerfball
Footballguy
I have to say even though I am a Brown owner in Grubs and in a couple keeper leagues, I couldn't have predicted the type of response this issue has gotten on this board. Very different opinions. Interesting.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
UnbelievableBoth extremely unproven RBs taken way too high in fantasy drafts...and overhyped on these boards. After that there aren't many similarities.based on what?let's see, a former first round bust, who never panned out with his original team, was all speed, couldn't hold onto the ball going to a completely new team that's in rebuilding mode-vs-a third round pick who played fairly well while backing up a team leader showing enough promise to give the team the confidence to cut said team leader without drafting a replacement and only signing an old veteran RB as insurance playing on a team that is on the cusp of contending for the super bowlyeah their situations are SO similar
This doesn't merit a response.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
No, what is unbelievable is that Fisher has stated they are going to "Split" Carries in addition to the fact that Brown has never proven he can play an entire NFL season...and yet you and almost every other person on this board wouldn't hesitate to draft him in the 3rd or 4th. That is unbelievable. This is a great segway for my FF whitepaper I'm penning titled "The Risk Management Perspective of FF: How to Win at FF."Many of the quotes on these threads have earned their way into the article.UnbelievableBoth extremely unproven RBs taken way too high in fantasy drafts...and overhyped on these boards. After that there aren't many similarities.based on what?let's see, a former first round bust, who never panned out with his original team, was all speed, couldn't hold onto the ball going to a completely new team that's in rebuilding mode-vs-a third round pick who played fairly well while backing up a team leader showing enough promise to give the team the confidence to cut said team leader without drafting a replacement and only signing an old veteran RB as insurance playing on a team that is on the cusp of contending for the super bowlyeah their situations are SO similar
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joffer
Footballguy
atsselfontheback:I knew you'd throw that in my face.You're correct. I like Lee Suggs a lot better than Chris Brown. And you know what? If you were tearing me a new one over that prediction, I would admit that you have a point, because I have very little if any data to back it up. It's a hunch. I admit and recognize that. And I certainly wouldn't say anything as absurd as "Lee Suggs has improved over his entire NFL career" because he improved over his last two games.
I don't mind anyone predicting a huge year for Chris Brown, just acknowledge the possibility that he could also be a colossal flop.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I have Suggs ranked higher than Brown also.The Browns have stated they will NOT be using a RBBC, that makes Suggs a much more likely candidate to be an impact FF RB.
You're correct. I like Lee Suggs a lot better than Chris Brown. And you know what? If you were tearing me a new one over that prediction, I would admit that you have a point, because I have very little if any data to back it up. It's a hunch. I admit and recognize that. And I certainly wouldn't say anything as absurd as "Lee Suggs has improved over his entire NFL career" because he improved over his last two games.
I don't mind anyone predicting a huge year for Chris Brown, just acknowledge the possibility that he could also be a colossal flop.
Enraged Nerfball
Footballguy
I feel like I'm being reported to the principal. Make sure you spell my name right.No, what is unbelievable is that Fisher has stated they are going to "Split" Carries in addition to the fact that Brown has never proven he can play an entire NFL season...and yet you and almost every other person on this board wouldn't hesitate to draft him in the 3rd or 4th. That is unbelievable. This is a great segway for my FF whitepaper I'm penning titled "The Risk Management Perspective of FF: How to Win at FF."Many of the quotes on these threads have earned their way into the article.UnbelievableBoth extremely unproven RBs taken way too high in fantasy drafts...and overhyped on these boards. After that there aren't many similarities.based on what?let's see, a former first round bust, who never panned out with his original team, was all speed, couldn't hold onto the ball going to a completely new team that's in rebuilding mode-vs-a third round pick who played fairly well while backing up a team leader showing enough promise to give the team the confidence to cut said team leader without drafting a replacement and only signing an old veteran RB as insurance playing on a team that is on the cusp of contending for the super bowlyeah their situations are SO similar
switz
Footballguy
I didn't realize that was a prerequisite for Chris Brown, isn't that true of EVERY NFL RB? I mean heck, LT coudl blow out a knee, Priest Holmes could act his age, Clinton Portis could realize he has no holes in WAS... every RB has risk....I happen to agree with you on Suggs, I like the kid alot... I alos think Brown will be given every oportunity to win the role and not be in RBBC, and that if he is successful he'll be a steal even as a 3rd-4th round pick... but yes there is risk... every RB has risk associated
Enraged Nerfball
Footballguy
Hello, my name is Enraged Nerfball
and I'm addicted to FF 
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
...just giving you a hard time. You're correct on all counts. However, the "discussion" regarding whether or not Chris Brown will have a good year is just about as baseless as discussin any other player. As such, predictions/hunchs are valid if a person believes them. THats all that matters.
You're correct. I like Lee Suggs a lot better than Chris Brown. And you know what? If you were tearing me a new one over that prediction, I would admit that you have a point, because I have very little if any data to back it up. It's a hunch. I admit and recognize that. And I certainly wouldn't say anything as absurd as "Lee Suggs has improved over his entire NFL career" because he improved over his last two games.
I don't mind anyone predicting a huge year for Chris Brown, just acknowledge the possibility that he could also be a colossal flop.
The actual discussion at hand that interests me (and LHUCKS), is what OPPORTUNITY Brown will have. LHUCKS insists it will be a RBBC with no one involved (Brown, Smith) having much fantasy value past being a low RB3 or RB4. On the other hand, I feel like he'll get roughly 2/3rds of the carries, which would make him a viable RB2.
Colin
Enraged Nerfball
Footballguy
I just want you to be consistent. You made the Foster statement earlier, and then you said this:
So, as a top 10 RB are you saying you would draft Foster higher than the 3rd or 4th round although he has never played an entire NFL season? Help me understand the difference.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Some people will say it is black when you say it is white, no matter how you phrase your arguments. You've met the type, right? That is precisely why this discussion will go nowhere. No one gives an inch, because actually, no one really knows what will happen. We can predict until the cows come home....just giving you a hard time. You're correct on all counts. However, the "discussion" regarding whether or not Chris Brown will have a good year is just about as baseless as discussin any other player. As such, predictions/hunchs are valid if a person believes them. THats all that matters.
You're correct. I like Lee Suggs a lot better than Chris Brown. And you know what? If you were tearing me a new one over that prediction, I would admit that you have a point, because I have very little if any data to back it up. It's a hunch. I admit and recognize that. And I certainly wouldn't say anything as absurd as "Lee Suggs has improved over his entire NFL career" because he improved over his last two games.
I don't mind anyone predicting a huge year for Chris Brown, just acknowledge the possibility that he could also be a colossal flop.
The actual discussion at hand that interests me (and LHUCKS), is what OPPORTUNITY Brown will have. LHUCKS insists it will be a RBBC with no one involved (Brown, Smith) having much fantasy value past being a low RB3 or RB4. On the other hand, I feel like he'll get roughly 2/3rds of the carries, which would make him a viable RB2.
Colin
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I believe Foster is one of the most talented RBs in the game...which is why I made that statement. I think it is obvious that Brown is not...obviously that is up for debate.If Foster was in Tenn I would definitely draft him in the 4th round...it is also worth mentioning that A. Smith would not have been brought in if Foster were there...IMHO.Does that answer your question?
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Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Link?Colin
Banger
Footballguy
Totally disagree with this. Do you really think that the Titans if they had Foster, coming off a major knee injury and no other RB's on their roster, besides Holcomb, with any NFL experience whatsoever that they wouldn't get another RB with some experience? If that's the case why did Panthers sign Stephen Davis last year?I don't see the A. Smith signing as having anything to do with Brown and whether or not they are satisfied with him. I see it as a smart move since they have almost zero NFL experience that can run the ball.
Enraged Nerfball
Footballguy
Your projections for Foster would have to be wildly different from EVERY other owner to allow him to drop to the 4th rd. A top 10 rb won't last past the 1st rd. in a 12 man league, much less 4th. rd. It is that projection you make that is the question.Foster hasn't played an entire season as #1, he has injury concerns based on what happened his rookie year, his college numbers weren't more productive than Brown's. I guess I don't see empirically how you make such a leap for Foster, and have such a negative opinion of Brown to place him beneath James Stewart and A. Smith as far as ranking. By the way,I like Foster very much.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Waiting...Do you want me to post some links where Suggs talks about them both being in the backfield together?
Colin
nightshift
Footballguy
I'd read it!When are you gonna post it?(BTW, I agree that Brown is overhyped right now. However, that just means better players for us value-minded shoppers!No, what is unbelievable is that Fisher has stated they are going to "Split" Carries in addition to the fact that Brown has never proven he can play an entire NFL season...and yet you and almost every other person on this board wouldn't hesitate to draft him in the 3rd or 4th. That is unbelievable. This is a great segway for my FF whitepaper I'm penning titled "The Risk Management Perspective of FF: How to Win at FF."Many of the quotes on these threads have earned their way into the article.UnbelievableBoth extremely unproven RBs taken way too high in fantasy drafts...and overhyped on these boards. After that there aren't many similarities.based on what?let's see, a former first round bust, who never panned out with his original team, was all speed, couldn't hold onto the ball going to a completely new team that's in rebuilding mode-vs-a third round pick who played fairly well while backing up a team leader showing enough promise to give the team the confidence to cut said team leader without drafting a replacement and only signing an old veteran RB as insurance playing on a team that is on the cusp of contending for the super bowlyeah their situations are SO similar
)
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Draft position and where I project players are not a direct correlation. See Chris Brown as an example.I would project Foster as a top 10 RB(in our hypothetical)...but probably wouldn't have to take him until much later than that. The definition of value.For further definitions pay close attention to my SOSII and Survivor II drafts coming up in the next couple of months. Pay closer attention to the commentary
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Unfortunately it is a huge work in progress and before I release it I'd like it to have five years of quotes from fantasy "experts" as well as five years of statistical data to support its assertions. The outline is complete and I could post that to give everybody a glimpse, but I'm afraid of piracy as I'm trying to use the article as a springboard into a ff career/side job. It leverages some of the basic principles I learned as a Business Management Consultant in the Electricity Trading Risk Management Field...and Coroporate Financial Risk Management in general. I'm going to have two versions one that is "dumbed down" for those who aren't interested in statistics and another more statistic-laden version for those who don't mind that. I'm also trying to partner with a Statistics PHD or at the very least a grad student for the project, but that could be overkill and I'm afraid I'd lose the audience's interest, but I think it does give the statistical analysis some necessary authority in the minds of potential employers. Nevertheless, it is becoming a book and I need to decide how detailed it's going to be.I'm a hugeI'd read it!When are you gonna post it?(BTW, I agree that Brown is overhyped right now. However, that just means better players for us value-minded shoppers!No, what is unbelievable is that Fisher has stated they are going to "Split" Carries in addition to the fact that Brown has never proven he can play an entire NFL season...and yet you and almost every other person on this board wouldn't hesitate to draft him in the 3rd or 4th. That is unbelievable. This is a great segway for my FF whitepaper I'm penning titled "The Risk Management Perspective of FF: How to Win at FF."Many of the quotes on these threads have earned their way into the article.UnbelievableBoth extremely unproven RBs taken way too high in fantasy drafts...and overhyped on these boards. After that there aren't many similarities.based on what?let's see, a former first round bust, who never panned out with his original team, was all speed, couldn't hold onto the ball going to a completely new team that's in rebuilding mode-vs-a third round pick who played fairly well while backing up a team leader showing enough promise to give the team the confidence to cut said team leader without drafting a replacement and only signing an old veteran RB as insurance playing on a team that is on the cusp of contending for the super bowlyeah their situations are SO similar
People are going to take "professional" advice from a guy who yells into the wind just to soothe his pride rather than recognize the continually mounting evidence that he was dead wrong about Chris Brown being overhyped at his ADP of 6.04 when the thread started? Scary.Did I pick Chris Brown? You're damn right I picked Chris Brown. In a dynasty, in the fifth round. And he's not going anywhere.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
I can't believe we are getting into this much of a tizzy over CHRIS F'ING BROWN in the middle of JULY no less.Rather than to continue debating whose richard is bigger and getting more into a urinating contest, let's stop and consider the following.Last year, another board darling (NOT!) A-Train ranked as the #24 RB--by definition the last true RB2 slot on the board.Thomas posted 1,100 total yards with 6 TD on just 250 touches. That should be the baseline analytical metric for Brown is this thread. All those in favor, please step to the right side of the building.Those that do not feel that Brown cannot outproduce Thomas' season from last year, please step to the left.By comparison, Dunn was last year's #27 RB. He had 1,000 total yards and 5 TD. He did that on just 160 touches.To suggest that Brown is CLOSE to being a #2 RB for fantasy purposes--even SHARING or SPLITTING time is not far fetched AT ALL, IMO.The ONLY way someone could argue otherwise is if you think Brown CANNOT even get 175-200 touches.Given that Tennessee will likely give their RB at least 450 touches (they had 480 last year), then you are arguing that Brown does not get even HALF of the workload.If that is the case, please state so and move on. Thank you, and good day.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
6.04 was a bad pick when it was likely George would stay in TENN...and now a 4th rounder is too high for Brown as well. In expert drafts going forward his ADP will be much higher than 6.04."soothe pride"...because I'm discussing fantasy football? Why do people insist on making this a personal discussion,
Let's stick to the topic at hand.
I'm so very surprised that you are a Brown owner...you and almost everybody else on this thread. Interestingly enough, I have nothing invested in this situation. Worst case scenario for me is I drafted somebody else in the fourth round. I don't have any reason to discuss for or against Brown's ADP. I'm simply applying my methodology and principles to this situation.
Enraged Nerfball
Footballguy
Thanks for the advice but I'd much rather have you address my question.Draft position and where I project players are not a direct correlation. See Chris Brown as an example.I would project Foster as a top 10 RB(in our hypothetical)...but probably wouldn't have to take him until much later than that. The definition of value.
For further definitions pay close attention to my SOSII and Survivor II drafts coming up in the next couple of months. Pay closer attention to the commentary
If you project Foster as a top 10 rb and you are able to take him much later than that, then YOU have a major difference of opinion from all other owners in your league in regards to his value and worth. That is my point and the question I addressed to you earlier. On what basis is your projection of Foster as a top 10 back different from projecting Brown lower than A. Smith and James Stewart. Neither Foster or Brown have played entire seasons as starting RB's, both have had injury issues, and Foster did not have superior college stats to Brown. So, I ask again, on what basis do you arrive at your projection, and why such a huge disparity.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
A) It is widely accepted that Foster was going to win the Heisman before the SUV scandal that knocked him out of it...Chris Brown did not have a season that matched that year. B) I have seen both players run. In my opinion Foster is a superior runningback to Chris Brown...so superior, that in our hypothetical Foster would be worth much more than is Brown. So basically the huge disparity you are asking for is in talent...because obviously the hypothetical situation has all other variables the same. Although I doubt A. Smith would have been brought in as rapidly if they had a healthy Foster....thus lessening the likelihood of a RBBC...or as Fisher stated "split" in carries.Does that answer your question?
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
No BS, thats a link saying Green and SUggs will both be used. LHUCKS was looking for a link saying there'd be no RBBC...
Colin
Big Score
Footballguy
I understood that CD.....but there is no suck link. Well...at least I couldn't find one anyway.THERE IS, however, a link refuting his ascertation, which I have provided.No BS, thats a link saying Green and SUggs will both be used. LHUCKS was looking for a link saying there'd be no RBBC...
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Enraged Nerfball
Footballguy
Absolutely it does. Don't agree with it but now I understand where your coming from. Thanks.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I know. I was giving you a "sarcastic retort." SOrry if it didn't come across that way. Good link though!ColinI understood that CD.....but there is no suck link. Well...at least I couldn't find one anyway.THERE IS, however, a link refuting his ascertation, which I have provided.No BS, thats a link saying Green and SUggs will both be used. LHUCKS was looking for a link saying there'd be no RBBC...
Enraged Nerfball
Footballguy
I have taken the "Heisman" year for Foster and taken Brown's last yr. as a player (as a Jr.) and crunched some numbers. I extrapolated for Foster based on his numbers for 8 games. As you said he missed three games that year Foster games carries yds ypc tdActual 8 216 1109 5.1 12Extrap. 11 297 1523 5.1 16Brown 11 303 1841 6.0 19Comments?
Quote from David Yudkin: "Last year, another board darling (NOT!) A-Train ranked as the #24 RB--by definition the last true RB2 slot on the board. Thomas posted 1,100 total yards with 6 TD on just 250 touches. That should be the baseline analytical metric for Brown is this thread. All those in favor, please step to the right side of the building."Anyone got an emoticon of a smiley stepping to the right?! If so, that'd be me.Do I think Chris Brown will be the next Walter Payton? Not on your life! Do I think Chris Brown could very-well be a top-20/25 RB, a la "late RB2", as early as 2004? Yes I do. I think guys are forgetting the glorious "middle ground" in this thread....either implying that "the other guy" thinks that Chris Brown will either be a HOFer or will be a HUGE bust. Am I alone in thinking that Chris Brown can be a solid RB2 starting in Week One, but will probably never be a "great" RB (and doesn't really need to be in order to be a solid FFL contributor)?As for LHUCKS, some friendly advice: if this thread is an example of how you would interact with readers/subscribers in a paying FFL gig, you might want to let go of that dream and find another hobby-job to pursue. My own paying FFL gig dreams finally came true this summer and I'm telling you, the way you look at "walking your talk" and knowing your shizzy is wratcheted up about 3-4 notches compared to just bopping into FBGs and sharing a brain-dump.The more I know, the more I realize I don't know....... 
Enraged Nerfball
Footballguy
OK. For discussions sake forget YPC. Now, comment?
LHUCKS
Footballguy
A) I've been offered two jobs from major websites...top ten in the industry....neither pay enough, but thanks for the advice.B) I don't approach casual conversation on a ff messageboard and a potential job in the same manner.As for LHUCKS, some friendly advice: if this thread is an example of how you would interact with readers/subscribers in a paying FFL gig, you might want to let go of that dream and find another hobby-job to pursue. My own paying FFL gig dreams finally came true this summer and I'm telling you, the way you look at "walking your talk" and knowing your shizzy is wratcheted up about 3-4 notches compared to just bopping into FBGs and sharing a brain-dump.The more I know, the more I realize I don't know.......
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