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Christine Michael (1 Viewer)
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
I was high on Michael. Glad I don't own him anywhere.
Although I might go try and get him now though
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Beginning of year it looked like Lynch would be gone. A lot has changed since then. Lynch has held up incredibly. For his style of play, to not miss hardly any time for injury is truly remarkable. Obviously Michael's value takes a huge hit. He won't be traded because he's not getting paid anything. Have to hold and maybe Lynch will get hurt next year.
EBF
Footballguy
The guy has arguably been the top all-around RB in the NFL if you look at the last three years as a whole and Seattle has (potentially) won two titles on his back, so it makes sense from that standpoint. He's 29 years old with 2,000+ career carries though, so you have to figure that he'll be joining the Steven Jackson/MJD club at some point in the near future. Disappointing for Michael though because if it happens then it pushes any potential payoff back indefinitely. It's playing out like a Michael Turner situation when I'd hoped it would only be 1-2 years of waiting.
beerbarron
Footballguy
Perhaps Lynch pulls a Barry Sanders and disappears... Not likely but Lynch is a bit of an odd hawk...
They have to sign Russel Wilson this off season too..
They have to sign Russel Wilson this off season too..
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah Wilson's salary is going to increase about 20 fold.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
A player like Michael would have demanded the football at the 1 with 26 seconds to play. Lynch is a bum.
Boston
Footballguy
I'm beginning to believe that Christine Michael isn't actually a real person...he's just a legend in the fantasy-world...
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
Why not trade the guy if they sign Lynch. They won't get the worth of a second round pick they dropped on Michaels, but they aren't getting it now either.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Because whatever pick they get (5th, 6th??) isn't worth having a potential excellent backup.
Trading him would be rather stupid unless he is some sort of locker room problem.
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
I don't know that I agree with this. They don't even use him in the backup roll. They choose to use Turbin. There are plenty of 5 & 6th round players stating in the NFL. A starting or excellent backup OL or DL is much more valuable than a third string RB.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
They could certainly use a good wideout.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
And there are plenty of 5th and 6th rounders serving you fries in the drive thru.
just doesnt make sense to deal him for a peanut
That's just it, he's not the backup. Most of us think his talent would be to much to overcome if it was him against Turbin for the long haul but most of us could be wrong. We've certainly not seen any evidence yet to suggest he's ahead of Turbin. I'm not heavily invested in Michaels but I can say I got worried this past off season when Lynch was holding out and Wilson referenced players ready to step up and referenced Turbin.
Also think they might get at least a little better than a 5th or 6th. If he was available and I was connecting the dots I'd think Atlanta would make sense in terms of team need and familiarity but we have no idea if Quinn is even high on Michaels.
But not to get away from the main point, his value is going to take a hit if/when Lynch is extended. And as ghostguy stated, the best possible outcome for Michaels owners is that he gets upset and becomes a bad locker room guy and moans and groans his way out of town. Selfishly I want to see this happen but really can't blame him. Must be tough not getting a chance a play,especially when he all the other second round pick RB's from his draft class all have had their chances. Honestly if he's not upset it would make me question how much he likes football or he is just happy to collect his paycheck.
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Dezbelief
Footballguy
Michael should be loving his situation, his body isn't getting beat up for rookie money. He's getting time to learn the nuances of his position. Maybe he gets a chancee to showcase his talents before he's a FA, if not he will sign a 1 year prove it deal if he goes to another team. IMO he stays in SEA and eventually gets his chance after Lynch is wornout or retires.
Does anybody think Turbin can replace Lynch? It's going to take two guys IMO if Lynch misses time.
Does anybody think Turbin can replace Lynch? It's going to take two guys IMO if Lynch misses time.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Michael should be loving this?? Now i have heard it all
Zyphros
Footballguy
The reasoning is sound. To think he won't have the wear and tear when/if he actually gets a chance he can get paid a lot sure the timing could be right, but is he loving not getting ANY playing time? Absolutely not.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Really regret not selling last spring.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Just about any time you can sell for a nice haul on a player who is nothing but hype to that point, it's usually a good idea to do it (see David Wilson and Lamar Miller the year before, even though Miller has been ok, but he was fetching more than he is worth now for sure), especially with RBs.
I liked Michael last offseason a a good amount, but the hauls he was getting were no brainers.
It's probably a good idea to sale any player before he suffers a career ending injury.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Ummmmm, ok.
I was moreso saying to sell when guys skyrocket in value based off hype and not actual playing time.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I was mainly referring to guys who see a huge spike in value based on hype and not play on the field.
I dont usually include rookies in that.
EBF
Footballguy
Except much of the hype was caused by play on the field. Namely his 2013 preseason.
Not sure about that. As a michael owner it looked very probable that he was going to take over as a starter in 2015. A lot's changed since then, what are you gonna do.
i still think there's a 15% chance Lynch walks into Carroll's office, flips him off, walks away and never looks back.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I appreciate you thought Wilson was gonna be really good, but this isn't a "david wilson specific" philosophy that I have. A philosophy that has worked quite well for several years I might add.
Gerhart was another last year.
And as for Wilson, if you want to get specific about him, his value rose to damn near 1st round start up values. Immediate sell when that happened IMO.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Right, I also thought Lynch would be gone and Michael would for sure start. But when you get a chance to sell for the peak of a guy's value, before he even gets the chance to reach that peak, sell sell sell IMO.
If I buy a stock today for 100 bucks that I think will top out at 500 in a month, and someone comes and offers me 500 the day after I buy it, I will sell.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Yeah, even though I didn't want to, very happy I traded him right after taking him in my rookie draft. With an excess of QBs with Brees, Stafford, Wilson, and Kaep, I was offered Foster and 2 future picks (turned into J. Hill and CJ Mosley) for Stafford and Michael.
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well sure, but it's easy to see the guy's value was at its peak now and noone was offering me 500 bucks anyway. I get your point, i just think it's easier to see in hindsight.
EBF
Footballguy
Must have me confused with someone else. I've never owned David Wilson in a FF league.
According to DLF, Michael's ADP a year ago was RB19. Not really close to "peak value" for a 23 year old RB.
I think his value might have spiked briefly when rumors of Marshawn's departure gained steam, but that was as premature as this talk of Michael's demise is.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
By the same logic now might be a good time to buy Michael if the price were reasonable.
ADP on DLF has Michael as the 62nf player overall. Being outside the top 50 maybe you could get him for a 3rd round pick?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The 62nd player drafted in recent mocks at DLF.
He is the 20th RB overall.
He goes just after Jerick McKinnon and before Bishop Sankey.
He is the 20th RB overall.
He goes just after Jerick McKinnon and before Bishop Sankey.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
62nd is crazy high for him right now.
But 62nd overall doesnt correlate well with a 3rd round pick, unless you have really small rosters
Biabreakable
Footballguy
You are likely correct that people who value Michael as the 62nd player would not be willing to sell him for a 3rd round draft pick.
I wouldn't want to give up much more than that for him at this point. I like a lot of players drafted after Michael in those six mocks more than him also.
I wouldn't want to give up much more than that for him at this point. I like a lot of players drafted after Michael in those six mocks more than him also.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
For all the talk about his value rising, tanking, etc -- he's been right around RB20-25 for over a year IIRC.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
That's because Michael owners and fans are planted like a tree in their sentiment. Fact of the matter is the "next AD" doesn't sit on the bench for two years, most of it inactive, and behind another back most of the supporters consider mediocre. I'm all for sticking to your opinion but there does come a time where it burns you and I think that has already happened where the price was as high as it could be. I also think taking him that high in dynasty startup is setting ones self up for failure. Lynch is goofy but if the $10 mil reports are true that's a lot of reasons to return and an opportunity he won't see again outside of the NFL. 3 seasons of inactivity is going to lead to quite a bit of disappointment, especially if a 4th back is introduced to the mix which is not entirely out of the realm of possibilities.
I doubt they add a 4th...not if they're spending $10M on Lynch and not with roster limitations...no reason to. That said, Turbin will only be around 1 more season...he will leave given they will likely add a younger RB vs extending him.
I own CM and if Lynch is extended, then I'll have a decision to make. If I hold on to him, it will be for the long term expecting his chance to come with free agency in a couple of years (yes, a long time, but my league really hordes RBs)... I wouldn't pay a lot for him, but I'm also not giving him away...jmho.
I own CM and if Lynch is extended, then I'll have a decision to make. If I hold on to him, it will be for the long term expecting his chance to come with free agency in a couple of years (yes, a long time, but my league really hordes RBs)... I wouldn't pay a lot for him, but I'm also not giving him away...jmho.
EBF
Footballguy
Same thing could be said for the detractors, who have been just as vocal and unwavering for the last ~2 years.
The reality is that not much has changed since Michael was drafted. Lynch is still around and playing at such a high level that the team has a strong incentive to keep him in the fold. I wouldn't blame that on Michael because it's beyond his control. I don't believe in judging players for opportunities that they never had. It's why I never bailed off the Aaron Rodgers bandwagon or held Michael Turner's quiet San Diego years against him. When you have a legend in his prime on the depth chart in front of you, you're a bit player by default. No fault of yours.
I've got a bunch of guys on my dynasty rosters in a similar situation where they've had promising talent mixed with murky opportunity (Christine Michael, Jonathan Stewart, Michael Dyer, Toby Gerhart). At the end of the day, if you believe in the guy's talent then you hold him until he gets a chance to show what he can do. You can't necessarily know how and when it will happen, but if he's good enough to thrive then it will happen eventually. That being the case, all this chatter about Lynch is really missing the point. If Michael is legit, he will get an extended chance to prove it somewhere and sometime.
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BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
lol
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I don't think you can say a guy's value has peaked until he's either had substantial playing time or is retired. He's 24.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Which gives him about 2 years before people are claiming he's getting old and his value is on the decline. Dynasty is fickle. Reminds me of when Trung Canidate headed to Washington and everyone would have sold the world for him. Now I think Michael is considerably more talented than that but if Lynch comes back that's at least one more year of being a backup and still having to overcome the trust in Turbin. I'm not saying you would have got it but potentially you could have walked away with two firsts and pulled an Odell Beckham or Jeremy Hill last year then been sitting pretty in this years draft too. I don't see him pulling that weight anymore and while he could demand it again the light at the end of the tunnel is much more dim then previously. Now not talking about 'stock' but actual on field returns I don't see any problem with being stubborn and actually agree with EBF. I held onto Gerhart for years only for him to massively fail me on his first opportunity. It happens, I just don't like when people compare backups to HOF'ers and that happened multiple times in here along with other threads. Some even saying he's better than Marshawn.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
I never understood the hype.
Everybody talking about Lynch, the guy has not passed up Turbin as the # 2 in two years he's managed to be the 3rd back and has been deactivated at times.
There is no explaining away him not passing up Turbin, other than he's just an okay back with allot of hype.
Everybody talking about Lynch, the guy has not passed up Turbin as the # 2 in two years he's managed to be the 3rd back and has been deactivated at times.
There is no explaining away him not passing up Turbin, other than he's just an okay back with allot of hype.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
as a Lynch, Turbin, Michael owner I hope he's starting elsewhere next season.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
In theory yes.
But they way he was hyped up and some of the trades made for him were at prices as though he already put up a nice season. His ADP may not have been considered a peak, but there were plenty of people out there willing to dish out a nice haul for him.
In those situations, it's an easy sell for me each and every time. Even if you are wrong and he becomes a stud it won't kill you because you are getting a good amount of value in return. And each time it pans out like a Wilson, you score huge.
It's pretty safe to say that more often than not a guy who spikes in value without any regular season on field play is more likely to be worth less than that spiked value shortly after.
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