Whenever a study says "take a QB in round one", they fail to differentiate between the consensus can't-miss types and the rest of the picks. The Luck, Elway, RG3's should be excluded because they just skew the results. In years where these types don't exist, like now, what are the results?
Fwiw, the results are much, much worse when trading back into round one to get your QB.
Not a big fan of most of those study's though. Every situation and prospect is different. I prefer to evaluate case by case why each pick worked and why others did not. It seems almost too simple, but the result isn't that complicated - the ones that panned out were properly developed, were willing to learn + listen + adapt, had their weaknesses masked well, had a scheme devised specifically for them, and most importantly were done by an organization with a plan for them to be successful.
JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, and Brandon Weeden failed because of what's between their ears.
Alex Smith failed repeatedly because his merry go round of coaches continued to try to fit him to their scheme, he finally began to have success when Jim Harbaugh looked at him and said there are some things you just can't do so just do these few things that you do great and forget about all the rest.
Aaron Rodgers succeeded because he is a work a holic. We all know why he wasn't rushed, but that turned out well for him because he wasn't sitting idly by waiting for his turn; he was working to get better and better behind the scenes.
Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, and Brady Quinn failed because their work ethic just isn't there. Josh Freeman is headed down the same path too. I'd argue Matt Stafford may be too.
Jay Cutler has had some success because of how he is utilized, constantly out of the pocket and on the move with his eyes down field. Keep him inside the pocket and especially with underneath/middle of the field stuff and it would be a pick/sack party...as it sometimes is with him if he gets off his game.
Joe Flacco is a similar case. He can't move outside of the pocket well, but the same middle of the field issues exist. His coaches got him a screen/vertical/sideline game and players that fit. For a statue he moves within the pocket relatively well too.
Matt Ryan is showing his ceiling is capped, but for all the faults I think Mike Smith and his staff have they get him in spots to be successful. He wasn't the type that could throw the team on his shoulders when he came out and that hasn't changed.
Cam Newton is a physical monster and has been steadily more successful because he has evolved mentally. Will that continue? If he is going to be a star he has to.
Sam Bradford is the one I can't put my finger on. He's just inconsistent. By all accoutns, the effort is there. He can make most of the throws. He doesn't have any major mechanical issues. He just can't stay healthy and has some head scratching inconsistent periods of play.
The panic draft (2011) is unexplainable, but for different reasons. There really was no reason to believe any of those guys were round 1 prospects. Skill set (Gabbert), production (Locker), or both (Ponder).
Tebow?
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Where do these guys fall in the above categories?