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College QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (1 Viewer)

I look at him as a quality prospect...very easy to see he has the tools to be a good QB but he is still very raw as far as the NFL is concerned...I don't see him being pro-ready his rookie year and I don't think anyone who drafts him would think that...he would be a perfect fit for a team like the Rams or Vikings if they resign Cousins for a couple more years...he can sit like Love did behind a veteran with a good offensive HC, not be rushed and take over around year 3 if/when he has developed both physically and mentally.
 
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I've seen some mocks with him as high as 8th? I've watched probably 7-8 Michigan games this year including the Rose Bowl and National Championship games. I do not understand this ranking and I would be mad if my franchise took this guy in the first round. I could see third round, but to tell me he is better prospect than Will Levis who slipped to the 2nd last year is crazy to me. Maybe he will prove me wrong.

I don't take this lightly: but something I'm sure an NFL team will look into if they decide to invest in him. Does a few bad losses/games effect him mentally? Doing all this breathing/meditation before games to keep him focused, etc, he has never truly failed as a starter going 26-1. Will he struggle to keep his mind engaged and not get down on himself when the NFL hits him square in the mouth.
 
I look at him as a quality prospect...very easy to see he has the tools to be a good QB but he is still very raw as far as the NFL is concerned...I don't see him being pro-ready his rookie year and I don't think anyone who drafts him would think that...he would be a perfect fit for a team like the Rams or Vikings if they resign Cousins for a couple more years...he can sit like Love did behind a veteran with a good offensive HC, not be rushed and take over around year 3 if/when he has developed both physically and mentally.
I think this is an accurate assessment. He definitely needs to bulk up if he's going to eventually survive life in the NFL. But he does have arm talent, I've seen him fit into some tight windows NFL type throws plus he can run a little. Playing for a conservative coach he was never going to put up big stats with the running game and defense they had. 2nd round to the Vikings maybe?

I think he could go higher then expected if he tests/interviews well...I just think teams are going to put even more priority into the overall QB position on their team and not just the current starter...odd to say that because the importance of the position is no secret but I think there is going to be even more focus on it besides the starter...teams just can't waste a season if their starter goes down or wait until the starter is done to begin the search for his successor.
 
I've seen some mocks with him as high as 8th? I've watched probably 7-8 Michigan games this year including the Rose Bowl and National Championship games. I do not understand this ranking and I would be mad if my franchise took this guy in the first round. I could see third round, but to tell me he is better prospect than Will Levis who slipped to the 2nd last year is crazy to me. Maybe he will prove me wrong.

I don't take this lightly: but something I'm sure an NFL team will look into if they decide to invest in him. Does a few bad losses/games effect him mentally? Doing all this breathing/meditation before games to keep him focused, etc, he has never truly failed as a starter going 26-1. Will he struggle to keep his mind engaged and not get down on himself when the NFL hits him square in the mouth.
I'm a Michigan fan and I don't want him on my team in the NFL. Seems like he could be an excellent backup or a game manager on a team who loves to run the ball. I don't think he'll win you any games by himself though.
 
Right now, I think the biggest negative he has going for him is that some mock drafters put him in the 1st round.

He makes some big time throws, he has wheels, he's interesting. Didn't have to do much, but that's not the same as not being able to do much.

Played on a stacked team, but so did some really good NFL QBs.
 
I don't take this lightly: but something I'm sure an NFL team will look into if they decide to invest in him. Does a few bad losses/games effect him mentally? Doing all this breathing/meditation before games to keep him focused, etc, he has never truly failed as a starter going 26-1. Will he struggle to keep his mind engaged and not get down on himself when the NFL hits him square in the mouth.
I think you need to dig deeper.

As a freshman, he stayed to watch Georgia celebrate after beating MI, then was in the stadium at the end of the TCU loss, by himself, watching them celebrate.

Then promised to come back, and they won the title. They made Tebow a demigod in Florida after similar stuff, I don't think meditation before a game is a sign of weakness.
 
It's so tough to grade him, because has there ever been a 1st round QB prospect that was asked to do less in college?

In Michigan's final 6 games this year, he only eclipsed 150 yards passing 1 out of 6 times. He had 0 touchdown passes in 5 of the last 7 games. They let him throw the ball 8 times against Penn State.
 
It's so tough to grade him, because has there ever been a 1st round QB prospect that was asked to do less in college?

In Michigan's final 6 games this year, he only eclipsed 150 yards passing 1 out of 6 times. He had 0 touchdown passes in 5 of the last 7 games. They let him throw the ball 8 times against Penn State.
So you’re saying he’s a future Patriot.

If he falls to the 2 or 3, he’d make a very good developmental QB behind someone like Rodgers (probably won’t fall far enough), Stafford, Carr, or even Geno (except wouldn’t wait too long there)
 
It's so tough to grade him, because has there ever been a 1st round QB prospect that was asked to do less in college?

In Michigan's final 6 games this year, he only eclipsed 150 yards passing 1 out of 6 times. He had 0 touchdown passes in 5 of the last 7 games. They let him throw the ball 8 times against Penn State.
So you’re saying he’s a future Patriot.

If he falls to the 2 or 3, he’d make a very good developmental QB behind someone like Rodgers (probably won’t fall far enough), Stafford, Carr, or even Geno (except wouldn’t wait too long there)
Rams would be an ideal landing spot I think. Maybe Tampa if you want (and they should want) to hedge on Baker. For better or worse, I think NO is locked into Carr for a few years.

He's got a good arm, good mobility, and while he was more of a game manager, whenever he was asked to air it out he was usually successful. Looks like a 2nd rounder to me.
 
It's so tough to grade him, because has there ever been a 1st round QB prospect that was asked to do less in college?

In Michigan's final 6 games this year, he only eclipsed 150 yards passing 1 out of 6 times. He had 0 touchdown passes in 5 of the last 7 games. They let him throw the ball 8 times against Penn State.
So you’re saying he’s a future Patriot.

If he falls to the 2 or 3, he’d make a very good developmental QB behind someone like Rodgers (probably won’t fall far enough), Stafford, Carr, or even Geno (except wouldn’t wait too long there)
Rams would be an ideal landing spot I think. Maybe Tampa if you want (and they should want) to hedge on Baker. For better or worse, I think NO is locked into Carr for a few years.

He's got a good arm, good mobility, and while he was more of a game manager, whenever he was asked to air it out he was usually successful. Looks like a 2nd rounder to me.
He has the tools and a great mindset. I’m not sure if it’s the offense or him but there just seemed to be a lack of consistency.
 
I've seen some mocks with him as high as 8th? I've watched probably 7-8 Michigan games this year including the Rose Bowl and National Championship games. I do not understand this ranking and I would be mad if my franchise took this guy in the first round. I could see third round, but to tell me he is better prospect than Will Levis who slipped to the 2nd last year is crazy to me. Maybe he will prove me wrong.

I don't take this lightly: but something I'm sure an NFL team will look into if they decide to invest in him. Does a few bad losses/games effect him mentally? Doing all this breathing/meditation before games to keep him focused, etc, he has never truly failed as a starter going 26-1. Will he struggle to keep his mind engaged and not get down on himself when the NFL hits him square in the mouth.
I'm a Michigan fan and I don't want him on my team in the NFL. Seems like he could be an excellent backup or a game manager on a team who loves to run the ball. I don't think he'll win you any games by himself though.
So to Atlanta then in the first? LOL
 
I've seen some mocks with him as high as 8th? I've watched probably 7-8 Michigan games this year including the Rose Bowl and National Championship games. I do not understand this ranking and I would be mad if my franchise took this guy in the first round. I could see third round, but to tell me he is better prospect than Will Levis who slipped to the 2nd last year is crazy to me. Maybe he will prove me wrong.

I don't take this lightly: but something I'm sure an NFL team will look into if they decide to invest in him. Does a few bad losses/games effect him mentally? Doing all this breathing/meditation before games to keep him focused, etc, he has never truly failed as a starter going 26-1. Will he struggle to keep his mind engaged and not get down on himself when the NFL hits him square in the mouth.
I'm a Michigan fan and I don't want him on my team in the NFL. Seems like he could be an excellent backup or a game manager on a team who loves to run the ball. I don't think he'll win you any games by himself though.
So to Atlanta then in the first? LOL
Honestly, they were the first team I thought of. He's smart and doesn't make many mistakes and he has good grasp on in- game situational football.
He doesn't have the best arm, but he can throw a accurate long ball if seeded.
 
"After three incredible years at the University of Michigan, I have decided to enter the 2024 NFL draft,” McCarthy wrote in a statement posted to social media.

Will be very interesting to see where he goes given the style of offense he's coming from.
 
"After three incredible years at the University of Michigan, I have decided to enter the 2024 NFL draft,” McCarthy wrote in a statement posted to social media.

Will be very interesting to see where he goes given the style of offense he's coming from.

McCarthy has a rocket arm, is mobile but is not a finished product, he would benefit sitting for a couple years like Jordan Love did.
 
"After three incredible years at the University of Michigan, I have decided to enter the 2024 NFL draft,” McCarthy wrote in a statement posted to social media.

Will be very interesting to see where he goes given the style of offense he's coming from.

McCarthy has a rocket arm, is mobile but is not a finished product, he would benefit sitting for a couple years like Jordan Love did.
Methinks McCarthy has some inside info on the Harbaugh situation...gotta believe he would stay and develop further if he knew Harbs would be there for sure.
 
That's part of the makeup of a leader and winner and that's part of the package he's going to give a team and why I'm so high on him as a real life QB.

I certainly grasp that football is a team game, I'm not trying to make a case he carried teams on his back, but this guy's winning is hard to overlook.

62-3 in his high school and college career. 36-2 in high school and 26-1 in college. One of those losses in high school came in the state championship game and his one loss in college came against TCU in the playoffs last year.

Won a state championship for his teams classification as a 15 year old sophomore. Lost in the title game the next season. Due to COVID shutting down most of his teams season had to transfer to IMG Academy and won a National Championship. Two year starter at Michigan, lost in playoffs and won a Championship at 20.

To repeat from the ages of 15-20 he played for two high schools and Michigan, went 62-3, won a title with each of them and every single season made it to at least the final 4 teams standing.

And all I'll say on the stats is that on a per throw basis he has no shame in his stats. At all. Broken down per pass he's right there with the consensus top 3 of the class. He just does not have the kind of volume they do but some stats, like his third down conversion rate, are top of the class.

I think he's going top 10 and QB4 but I can't say that I'd be surprised if he goes ahead of Maye or Daniels.
 
With Harbaugh pumping him I bet it increases his draft stock incredibly.

That being said I think there is a lot of risk with this kid. He is probably best suited to sitting behind someone for a couple of years for sure
 
I think he's going top 10 and QB4 but I can't say that I'd be surprised if he goes ahead of Maye or Daniels.
Well, a few weeks ago, he was mocked in the 2nd round, and now he is mocked in the top 20 by the guys who count (Jeremiah/Brugler).
Sikkema did a mock after the Senior Bowl, he was 44th. He just dropped his latest, and he is at 10.

His draft stock is inside the top 15 right now.
 
I’m open to it I guess. Certainly the qb desperate teams outside the top 3 are interested (NYG, Atl, LV, Den, Min, etc)
 
He seems to be this years "ready to play" guy while others are this years "elite talent, could develop" guys.

I prefer his type. The NFL world seems to prefer the other.

I think some teams don't admit it but they simply don't want to take on a huge project. Jets or Steelers for example. Maybe they don't want to after Wilson and Pickett. (I have seen contrarian reports, just an example) Then McCarthy looks better safer for them.

The rankings thus far don't seem to have counted how many teams actually need a starting QB. There's too many QBs going high that needs don't match that number.
It's also a regular draft where it goes about 80-100 deep with top players but the second round looks exceptionally strong.

Someone, maybe him, is falling to the third when it's not a given he starts.

Him, he's not going top 20. That's just how ready he is. The NFL wants elite potential
 
Smells like ATL pick at 8 to me.
Much easier to anchor the line with a tackle, draft someone opposite London, draft a CB they need, or a DT since injuries killed them on the DL.
Blank's a bit hypocritical. He wants to win now but he'll let the right player develop but he wants to win now. I'm not sure he's ready for a losing season while a rookie QB gets his feet wet. I think he's a good guy that didn't want to pigeon hole the GM but almost has to at this point.
If Aaron Rodgers were available like last year, they'd be all over him
 
I think Jordan Love was a big reminder to teams that not every rookie QB is CJ Stroud and can hit the ground running...I really like JJM's tools and makeup a lot, he just may need some seasoning like Love got...I think a team that has the ability to wait a year or two and develop him correctly is going to reap some very big dividends...if the Pats don't like the "big 3" and do trade down I would love to see them end up with him and go with a Jacoby Brisset type of QB for a year.
 
Waiver wire guy in start 1QB leagues. Not to say I wouldn’t roster him, but he would be at the end of my bench and the first cut for the flavor of the week. If he pulls a Purdy I would change my opinion.
 
I think he's going top 10 and QB4 but I can't say that I'd be surprised if he goes ahead of Maye or Daniels.
Well, a few weeks ago, he was mocked in the 2nd round, and now he is mocked in the top 20 by the guys who count (Jeremiah/Brugler).
Sikkema did a mock after the Senior Bowl, he was 44th. He just dropped his latest, and he is at 10.

His draft stock is inside the top 15 right now.
Just now noticed that Brugler dropped his updated top 100 this morning. My post up above reads like I copied from his work, says a lot of the same stuff I did and apparently I was wrong on him being 26-1 in college, was 27-1.

Brugler has him ranked as player 24 but he's also said a few times over the last week he thinks he's going top 10. Jeremiah, and echoed by Brugler, has been saying since the Senior Bowl that teams don't like next years QB class and it's bumping up the next tier. Now as soon as I type this I expect someone to come rolling in with it being all hype and citing guys like Willis and Ridder being bandied about as first round picks. I don't think that's the case here.
 
He seems to be this years "ready to play" guy while others are this years "elite talent, could develop" guys.

he just may need some seasoning like Love got
I'm with Bri on this one but I've noticed a lot of people saying what you are saying Boston about him needing some seasoning.

With the acknlowdgement that every QB can benefit from seasoning what about him makes you say that? His age, that he was not tasked with carrying a team on his back so to speak?

I see a guy who has played a lot of football and has been taught by an NFL head coach running what I think translates very well as a pro style system. He seems as ready to go as any QB in this class to me.
 
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Has any Michigan QB ever turned out to be good :bored: Wait a tick 🐐

QBs tend to drop if they aren't a perceived top talent. The reason is the contract's guarantees, team option, and the PPE (performance escalators built into the collective bargaining agreement). Sliding all that to a second round or later pick for QBs can help a team salary cap long term. Kind of the same for LT and DE where their next contract can explode in terms of $s.
 
He seems to be this years "ready to play" guy while others are this years "elite talent, could develop" guys.

he just may need some seasoning like Love got
I'm with Bri on this one but I've noticed a lot of people saying what you are saying Boston about him needing some seasoning.

With the acknlowdgement that every QB can benefit from seasoning what about him makes you say that? His age, that he was not tasked with carrying a team on his back so to speak?

I see a guy who has played a lot of football and has been taught by an NFL head coach running what I think translates very well as a pro style system. He seems as ready to go as any QB in this class to me.

I just think he is still a little raw as far as the NFL game is concerned and while I think playing for Harbaugh is a huge benefit long-term I think how good UM was and what he was asked to do within that system means the next level will be a big adjustment for him...also, I think he could use another year of physical development at the NFL-level...overall, he just seems like a prospect that would be better suited long-term with a year of development than being expected to start week 1 (this is by no means a knock on him as I really like him...probably more then most on this board)...now, if he goes into camp and is much further along then I think he is (like ARich) then by all means start him but as of now I think doing something like the Pack did with Love (and I think JJM will need less time than Love) is the smart/safe strategy to ensure he doesn't get ruined like so many young QBs have been.
 
As a UofM fan, I've watched pretty much every game of the past 20+ years. JJ is by far the best QB they've had in the past 12-15 years or so, aside from Denard Robinson, which was a special case. I still don't think he's up to NFL standards, though. I wouldn't take him before very late 2nd, at best.
 
As a UofM fan, I've watched pretty much every game of the past 20+ years. JJ is by far the best QB they've had in the past 12-15 years or so, aside from Denard Robinson, which was a special case. I still don't think he's up to NFL standards, though. I wouldn't take him before very late 2nd, at best.
That's closer to where I am. I think mid 2nd is reasonable, but I felt like he was less responsible for Michigan's title, and more along for the ride. I do like that he's exceptionally young and that he has underrated mobility, but I think Alex Smith is a reasonable comp.
 
I think what some people have against McCarthy is the lack of stats and wow plays. When you win like he does I just don't see a need to throw the ball around and put up big stats. His one loss in college he threw for 340 and ran for 50 in the playoffs. I think when you dial down the plays he made when he had to make a plays or was under pressure and had to make something happen it's pretty impressive and here are some my favorite stats to support that. These all come various tweets of people I follow and I'm stealing.




According to PFF (comp% when scrambling):

McCarthy-71.4%
Nix-58.6%
Daniels- 46.7%
Caleb 41.8%
Maye 36.8%
Penix 23.3%


QB JJ McCarthy's adjusted completion percentage while pressured this season was 75.6%.Of the 101 drafted QBs @PFF_College has charted in the last ten years, that's the 3rd-best number in their final season.Both guys ahead of him went #1 in the draft (Kyler / Burrow)


Completion percentage of 10+ air yards to try and refute that he was just making short throws:

Completion % - 10+ Air Yards1.
Jayden Daniels 63.5%2.
Bo Nix 62..0%3.
JJ McCarthy 60.4%4.

Stroud: 60.1% (2nd in FBS)2021
Purdy: 58.5% (5th in FBS)

Most of those stats above are to highlight his accuracy and accuracy when pressured and forced to move and that's to say he perform at a high level when everything around him is not making it easy.

This is my favorite stat to show he made plays when he needed to make them, was not just a passenger on the National Championship bus:

% of 3rd down pass attempts that resulted in a 1st down in 2023:

Jayden Daniels 48.21
J.J. McCarthy 48.10
Bo Nix 43.82
Caleb Williams 42.31
Drake Maye 39.29
Michael Penix 37.93
 
I think what some people have against McCarthy is the lack of stats and wow plays. When you win like he does I just don't see a need to throw the ball around and put up big stats. His one loss in college he threw for 340 and ran for 50 in the playoffs. I think when you dial down the plays he made when he had to make a plays or was under pressure and had to make something happen it's pretty impressive and here are some my favorite stats to support that. These all come various tweets of people I follow and I'm stealing.




According to PFF (comp% when scrambling):

McCarthy-71.4%
Nix-58.6%
Daniels- 46.7%
Caleb 41.8%
Maye 36.8%
Penix 23.3%


QB JJ McCarthy's adjusted completion percentage while pressured this season was 75.6%.Of the 101 drafted QBs @PFF_College has charted in the last ten years, that's the 3rd-best number in their final season.Both guys ahead of him went #1 in the draft (Kyler / Burrow)


Completion percentage of 10+ air yards to try and refute that he was just making short throws:

Completion % - 10+ Air Yards1.
Jayden Daniels 63.5%2.
Bo Nix 62..0%3.
JJ McCarthy 60.4%4.

Stroud: 60.1% (2nd in FBS)2021
Purdy: 58.5% (5th in FBS)

Most of those stats above are to highlight his accuracy and accuracy when pressured and forced to move and that's to say he perform at a high level when everything around him is not making it easy.

This is my favorite stat to show he made plays when he needed to make them, was not just a passenger on the National Championship bus:

% of 3rd down pass attempts that resulted in a 1st down in 2023:

Jayden Daniels 48.21
J.J. McCarthy 48.10
Bo Nix 43.82
Caleb Williams 42.31
Drake Maye 39.29
Michael Penix 37.93

He also threw 2 pick sixes in his only loss.
 

Vikings the current favorite to draft McCarthy.
The Vikings will be tied to McCarthy, Phenix and Nix until draft day because the price for the top 3 QBs is too high for the Vikings to get there.

The thing that worries me about McCarthys fit with the Vikings is that so far McCarthy has been asked to be a game manager.

Well the Vikings have no running game for him to manage and lean on. They need a QB who can get the ball out quickly and make anticipation throws.
 

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