Covid and the Economy (1 Viewer)

[RCon]

I’m definitely not a fan of this. A guy who made $78,000 last year and is out of work gets the shaft? Someone who made $70,000 and is still working whether it be from home or as an essential service employee gets the check? Not well thought out IMO. Just pay everyone. 

Government can't just pay everyone.  One of the perks of government service is the ability to pick winners and losers.  Pay everyone, prove UBI works, and then you lose that ability for the future.

 

[Man In The Box]

Government can't just pay everyone.  One of the perks of government service is the ability to pick winners and losers.  Pay everyone, prove UBI works, and then you lose that ability for the future.

I understand there’s an urgency to get this money out to people this time around, but drawing a hard line in the sand is a bad idea. And I say this as someone who would fully benefit from this proposed plan. 

 

[snogger]

Back to $1,000 per american, $500 for children.. and if we are still in crisis mode in 6 weeks then another round of checks.

Some rumors of cutoff being at $75,000/individuals $150,000 for couples.

now the waiting game to see how much is added. 

I’m definitely not a fan of this. A guy who made $78,000 last year and is out of work gets the shaft? Someone who made $70,000 and is still working whether it be from home or as an essential service employee gets the check? Not well thought out IMO. Just pay everyone. 

I agree on not liking that idea.. But disagree on the bold part.. Needs to be some cut-off.. Maybe 250k individual, 300k Couple.. then again, it depends on where you live..

250k/year for an individual where I live is living the high life.. But in New York, not so much..  

 

[RCon]

I understand there’s an urgency to get this money out to people this time around, but drawing a hard line in the sand is a bad idea. And I say this as someone who would fully benefit from this proposed plan. 

Agreed.  They should just pay everyone.  My post above was meant to be cynical and show my disgust.

 

[ghostguy123]

Paying everyone is the only way it makes sense.

Put something in tax returns for next year that if you got the stimulus and made a certain amount you have to give it back.

Looking at 2019 tax returns would not reflect who actually needs the money or who is affected.

 

[Man In The Box]

Agreed.  They should just pay everyone.  My post above was meant to be cynical and show my disgust.

Whoops, sorry. My meters are all off lately. 

 

[snogger]

Paying everyone is the only way it makes sense.

Put something in tax returns for next year that if you got the stimulus and made a certain about you have to give it back.

Looking at 2019 tax returns would not reflect who actually needs the money or who is affected.

My guess.. it will be at a Million as that is the biggest quote out there from the left.. "Don't want millionaires getting  hand outs"..  
Even Trump has bent a little saying that he might be on-board with saying..  if companies take bailout money, they can't buy back their own stock..

 

[CurlyNight]

Hope you are safe, Curly.

It's natural to want to help someone in need but, as I'm sure you probably know, giving money to an addict is usually more harmful than helpful.

Oh I know. I gave him 40 one time and never got it back. He stole from his sister all the time. He'd pick the lock on her room when they lived in their mother's house before it sold last month. I feel bad but I saw the more you do, the more they're on you for more. I'm just glad I got home and didn't run into him. He's not into 6 feet distance and has probably every disease possible by now. Just gross. 

I did volunteer to help my friend by meeting him somewhere weekly to give $100. She's 2 hours away. I would give it in cash so he would save money by not going to those check cashing places. He knows where I live now so that's not happening. Friend gets it. 

Just 1 example of people becoming desperate. Traffic is very light. Pan handling is not working anymore. So now people who are desperate look at every way to get what they need, and addictions are the worse. 

 

[ghostguy123]

My guess.. it will be at a Million as that is the biggest quote out there from the left.. "Don't want millionaires getting  hand outs"..  
Even Trump has bent a little saying that he might be on-board with saying..  if companies take bailout money, they can't buy back their own stock..

The only way to give it to who really needs it in any sort of timely manner is the way I suggested.  

If they give it to someone who makes decent money this year, they get it right back at tax time.

 

[snogger]

and please .. please.. someone go tell Lindsay Graham to Shut his trap.. he is STILL pushing a Payroll tax reduction..

How the bleep does that help those out of work??
Not like you are going to cut that and Companies are going to fire up the hiring machines..  

 

[TripItUp]

and please .. please.. someone go tell Lindsay Graham to Shut his trap.. he is STILL pushing a Payroll tax reduction..

How the bleep does that help those out of work??
Not like you are going to cut that and Companies are going to fire up the hiring machines..  

It Helps prevent companies from laying off.  Particularly small businesses. 

 

[snogger]

and please .. please.. someone go tell Lindsay Graham to Shut his trap.. he is STILL pushing a Payroll tax reduction..

How the bleep does that help those out of work??
Not like you are going to cut that and Companies are going to fire up the hiring machines..  

It Helps prevent companies from laying off.  Particularly small businesses. 

But for those already laid off they are SOL(and this wouldn't help restaurants, Movie theaters, shopping malls, etc..) and, as I said, companies aren't going to go on a hiring spree just because of the reduction..

Again, get checks out and then you can discuss the Pay Roll tax reduction if it keeps a few of the people happy.
 I am still against that reduction as it will deplete S.S. further then it is already depleted..  

 

[Northern Voice]

Heard today my good buddy was laid off x2. He works as a rep for a small craft brewery in the area but there obviously no bars or restaurants open to sell to right now. He also looks after the beverage side of 3 local pubs and restaurants, and same deal... 

I later talked to my cousins who own a restaurant in town, they were trying to stay open doing take out only, so I was calling to order some food to try to help things along while I still have a job... they cut if off after yesterday, just not enough people ordering to make it worthwhile. 

Not good. 

 

[snogger]

I truly believe the $1000/person now would help the economy greatly.. 

We had plans to screen in our front porch this spring but put that on hold due to the uncertainty. But if we had $2000 coming in next month, we'd get contractors in next week for estimates. Once the checks arrived we'd start building..

to contractors, who buy materials and pay workers, who now have money to buy what they need. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Bank of America said jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed. Great Depression 2.0 in 6 months...wow that is a dire forecast. 

B of A

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

I’m definitely not a fan of this. A guy who made $78,000 last year and is out of work gets the shaft? Someone who made $70,000 and is still working whether it be from home or as an essential service employee gets the check? Not well thought out IMO. Just pay everyone. 

Not to mention the cost of living difference in many places. 

 

[Man In The Box]

Not to mention the cost of living difference in many places. 

I was going to put that in my post, but I don’t think for a minute that will be a consideration, even though it definitely should be.  

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

Can we all agree no bailouts go to exec & CEO bonuses this time?

 

[Sand]

Bank of America said jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed. Great Depression 2.0 in 6 months...wow that is a dire forecast. 

B of A

Your forgot the part about "shut down for 6 months".   Obviously the hope is that the social distancing + testing + warmer weather will keep a lid on this until we get a vaccine.

(Frankly we need to be doing about 5 million tests per day here to find the asymptomatic carriers like they found in Vo).

 

[snogger]

The more you read these reports, the more you start thinking the idea of starting down the country for 30 days might be the best option. If you can believe the reports out of China it helped there. 

 

 

[snogger]

Your forgot the part about "shut down for 6 months".   Obviously the hope is that the social distancing + testing + warmer weather will keep a lid on this until we get a vaccine.

(Frankly we need to be doing about 5 million tests per day here to find the asymptomatic carriers like they found in Vo).

Vaccine won't be ready for at least a year.  

 

[mcintyre1]

Looks like the GOP proposal is arguably even worse than already talked about in this thread:
See who'd be eligible for coronavirus checks under Senate GOP plan

Under the plan, the details of which were revealed on the Senate floor by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., individuals making up to $75,000 annually would be eligible for a $1,200 check from the federal government.

...

Married couples who file their taxes jointly would have to make less than $150,000 to qualify for their payment, which would be $2,400.

From there, according to McConnell's proposal, the payments would decrease. For individuals, the sum of the payment would fall by $5 for each $100 earned over $75,000.

The payment would phase out entirely for individuals making more than $99,000 annually, meaning people who make more than that would not get any money from the government, according to the proposal.

For married couples earning more than $150,000, the payment would also decline gradually, and it would phase out completely for couples making more than $198,000, according to the plan.

The checks, however, would reduce to $600 (or $1,200 for married couples) for taxpayers who have little or no income tax liability but have at least $2,500 in qualifying income, according to a GOP summary of the plan.

Individuals and couples with children would be eligible for an additional $500 per each child they have.

...

The income levels the government would review to make the cash payout determinations would be based on 2018 tax returns, McConnell said.

So if I'm reading that correctly, the worst off would get less than people up to $75,000?

Also they're using 2018 income levels to determine it. If you've lost your job or gone under the thresholds since then, you're SOL.

 

[ghostguy123]

Looks like the GOP proposal is arguably even worse than already talked about in this thread:
See who'd be eligible for coronavirus checks under Senate GOP plan

So if I'm reading that correctly, the worst off would get less than people up to $75,000?

Also they're using 2018 income levels to determine it. If you've lost your job or gone under the thresholds since then, you're SOL.

Lot of people probably havent even done their taxes yet for 2019.

Just give it to everyone and figure it out on the following tax year

 

[TwinTurbo]

I think emphasis should be on rigorous testing, isolation of those who test positive even if asymptomatic, with separation from the uninfected including families. Only high risk should be at home socially distancing. Everyone else should go to work after an effective testing process is in place - 2-3 weeks from now. 

This would allow the economy to recover without the many millions who will die from poverty. The death toll from the virus will likely be under 3 million (hopefully less) before a vaccine.

This is a hard decision, but trades a decade of economic hardship and collateral damage with loss of about 1% of us. 

These are not easy decisions, and absent a wartime effort to test, isolate, and separate it won’t work. But we should be grateful the mortality rate is 1-2% and not 10-20%, and march on somberly.

If everyone got tested, the mortality rate would probably be well below 1-2% because then we would be using the actual denominator. But 0.1% of a really big number is still a big number. There are probably over a million people in the US with it now and it's probably been here since early Jan. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think emphasis should be on rigorous testing, isolation of those who test positive even if asymptomatic, with separation from the uninfected including families. Only high risk should be at home socially distancing. Everyone else should go to work after an effective testing process is in place - 2-3 weeks from now. 

This would allow the economy to recover without the many millions who will die from poverty. The death toll from the virus will likely be under 3 million (hopefully less) before a vaccine.

This is a hard decision, but trades a decade of economic hardship and collateral damage with loss of about 1% of us. 

These are not easy decisions, and absent a wartime effort to test, isolate, and separate it won’t work. But we should be grateful the mortality rate is 1-2% and not 10-20%, and march on somberly.

I am 100% with you and others that are encouraging people to continue going to work, I agree. I could understand maybe a week shutdown to get a hold of things and get these test kits beefed up in quantities. Those at high risk need to stay indoors and those of us that are able bodied need to pitch in and help these folks get the things they need. 

I don't see how destroying this economy and sending it into a recession and or a depression will do anyone any good. But it is pretty frightening how many folks are just a week or two from losing everything. We are not talking about lazy people, we're talking about people who work the most physically demanding jobs for the most part. 

I posted earlier that of the 1500+ open cases now, not even 1% are anything more than mild symptoms. That's an awful lot of economic destruction for such a small % or number. Now there is another stat that runs alongside this of the 335 cases closed that looks a little gloomier but that 1st stat is so eye popping that you wonder what all the fuss is about. 

 

[Capella]

I am 100% with you and others that are encouraging people to continue going to work, I agree. I could understand maybe a week shutdown to get a hold of things and get these test kits beefed up in quantities. Those at high risk need to stay indoors and those of us that are able bodied need to pitch in and help these folks get the things they need. 

I don't see how destroying this economy and sending it into a recession and or a depression will do anyone any good. But it is pretty frightening how many folks are just a week or two from losing everything. We are not talking about lazy people, we're talking about people who work the most physically demanding jobs for the most part. 

I posted earlier that of the 1500+ open cases now, not even 1% are anything more than mild symptoms. That's an awful lot of economic destruction for such a small % or number. Now there is another stat that runs alongside this of the 335 cases closed that looks a little gloomier but that 1st stat is so eye popping that you wonder what all the fuss is about. 

At this point if you don’t know what the fuss is all about you are just being willfully obtuse. We can’t overwhelm our hospitals with this, period.  

 

[Ministry of Pain]

At this point if you don’t know what the fuss is all about you are just being willfully obtuse. We can’t overwhelm our hospitals with this, period.  

If I show you a current stat on the number of open cases and the number of them that actually show severe symptoms, is there any way you could retract that obtuse comment? 

For the 14,300+ cases and growing here, apparently less than 100 are showing severe symptoms. That's less than 1%...maybe we should let you think about in solitary for a month or am I being obtuse?

 

[OrtonToOlsen]

If I show you a current stat on the number of open cases and the number of them that actually show severe symptoms, is there any way you could retract that obtuse comment? 

For the 14,300+ cases and growing here, apparently less than 100 are showing severe symptoms. That's less than 1%...maybe we should let you think about in solitary for a month or am I being obtuse?

Sources?

 

[BassNBrew]

At this point if you don’t know what the fuss is all about you are just being willfully obtuse. We can’t overwhelm our hospitals with this, period.  

If I show you a current stat on the number of open cases and the number of them that actually show severe symptoms, is there any way you could retract that obtuse comment? 

For the 14,300+ cases and growing here, apparently less than 100 are showing severe symptoms. That's less than 1%...maybe we should let you think about in solitary for a month or am I being obtuse?

There's probably solutions that check off both of your boxes.  Right now we are Xing both of your boxes.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Sources?

There's a Ticker

 

[CurlyNight]

Looks like the GOP proposal is arguably even worse than already talked about in this thread:
See who'd be eligible for coronavirus checks under Senate GOP plan

So if I'm reading that correctly, the worst off would get less than people up to $75,000?

Also they're using 2018 income levels to determine it. If you've lost your job or gone under the thresholds since then, you're SOL.

This article seems clearer. The poor poppers would get minimum $600, but still unclear on the fixed income folks.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/19/trump-coronavirus-economic-plan-stimulus/%3foutputType=amp

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Bank of America said jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed. Great Depression 2.0 in 6 months...wow that is a dire forecast. 

B of A

Stop reading the Daily Mail 

 

[SayWhat?]

There's a Ticker

That shows that 1.5% of cases has resulted in deaths.  Who gives a flying F what data they’re using to come up with how many of the “remaining” are “serious or critical.”  My word.  Talk about a data spin.  
 

And if you think there are only 64 people in the US presently with serious or critical symptoms from this, I’ve got some stocks to sell you five weeks ago.

 

[snogger]

If I show you a current stat on the number of open cases and the number of them that actually show severe symptoms, is there any way you could retract that obtuse comment? 

For the 14,300+ cases and growing here, apparently less than 100 are showing severe symptoms. That's less than 1%...maybe we should let you think about in solitary for a month or am I being obtuse?

here is the thing.. Without the isolation going on right now, the chances of the US becoming the next Italy sky rocket..
I don't think anyone wants to take a chance with "business as usual" in the US until it's too late.

The reason Wuhan is not reporting any new cases( if China is telling the truth) is because they went into a Complete lock down since January..
Italy waited to long to implement isolation and is paying the price.. :(  

 

[Ministry of Pain]

here is the thing.. Without the isolation going on right now, the chances of the US becoming the next Italy sky rocket..
I don't think anyone wants to take a chance with "business as usual" in the US until it's too late.

The reason Wuhan is not reporting any new cases( if China is telling the truth) is because they went into a Complete lock down since January..
Italy waited to long to implement isolation and is paying the price.. :(  

I understand Snogger but I am not one of those people that likes to abide by much the government wants to do, Libertarian in nature, feel the extremists that are taking this like a nuclear holocaust needs to think about getting one of those emotional support dogs.  

I'm with Gov Cuomo on this and he and I don't occupy the same side of the aisle usually and I'm writing that jut so some folks know it's OK to put some silly partisanship away when yu hear something that makes sense. 

His statement on fear and panic being as deadly as the virus itself, that should be played repeatedly. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

To be clear, I think people should be at home as is until there is a scalable and effective testing protocol. THEN those that test positive should be isolated from families. Maybe in hotels, which are largely unoccupied. Then, and only then, do I think all but high risk should be encouraged to go back to somewhat normal life. By somewhat, I mean gatherings of more than a couple hundred should be cancelled probably until there is a vaccine. But restaurants and retail should be open.

I also think people should be encouraged to wear masks in public.

I'm still with you 100%, that's way better than the plan being unrolled now which is largely Step-1 Shut everything down and throw us into a Recession/Depression...they're working on Step-2 and that's even more frightening. I worry this thing will go on and on and on and on and many things we have taken for granted much like Pre-911 will be permanently altered and that's always a hard pill to swallow for some of us...others seem eager to do whatever the most extreme thing they can find that the Media and Authorities tell them to do. 

Cuomo yesterday was clear in showing the massive difference between what is being reported or spread thru the media and social media and how those things are not actually the reality of the decisions he is making in New York. Quite frankly I feel he is doing a better job than other governors running large States including my own and we know the names of them. I don't want to pile on, people already are way to sensitive every time I cough or clear my throat in here. 

The panic that some people are perpetuating, it's disturbing, at least to me. 

 

[snogger]

I agree on not liking that idea.. But disagree on the bold part.. Needs to be some cut-off.. Maybe 250k individual, 300k Couple.. then again, it depends on where you live..

250k/year for an individual where I live is living the high life.. But in New York, not so much..  

latest report states it isn't a "Cut-off" at $75,000 for individuals, but a "reduction":

The bill promises up to $1,200 in "recovery rebates" to individual Americans who made no more than $75,000 and $2,400 to joint filers who made no more than $150,000 as of their 2018 tax return. For every $100 a person makes over those limits, $5 will be deducted from that amount.

 

 

[snogger]

To be clear, I think people should be at home as is until there is a scalable and effective testing protocol. THEN those that test positive should be isolated from families. Maybe in hotels, which are largely unoccupied. Then, and only then, do I think all but high risk should be encouraged to go back to somewhat normal life. By somewhat, I mean gatherings of more than a couple hundred should be cancelled probably until there is a vaccine. But restaurants and retail should be open.

I also think people should be encouraged to wear masks in public.

I'm still with you 100%, that's way better than the plan being unrolled now which is largely Step-1 Shut everything down and throw us into a Recession/Depression...they're working on Step-2 and that's even more frightening. I worry this thing will go on and on and on and on and many things we have taken for granted much like Pre-911 will be permanently altered and that's always a hard pill to swallow for some of us...others seem eager to do whatever the most extreme thing they can find that the Media and Authorities tell them to do. 

Cuomo yesterday was clear in showing the massive difference between what is being reported or spread thru the media and social media and how those things are not actually the reality of the decisions he is making in New York. Quite frankly I feel he is doing a better job than other governors running large States including my own and we know the names of them. I don't want to pile on, people already are way to sensitive every time I cough or clear my throat in here. 

The panic that some people are perpetuating, it's disturbing, at least to me. 

The bold is the reason the opinion to "Shut the country down for 30 days and have the Government pay everyone"  isn't as as far fetched as first thought.
Or, as you said, this WILL drag out until a Vaccine is ready ( a year or so) ..  

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The bold is the reason the opinion to "Shut the country down for 30 days and have the Government pay everyone"  isn't as as far fetched as first thought.
Or, as you said, this WILL drag out until a Vaccine is ready ( a year or so) ..  

And of course we all know who will pay back the $3Trillion or whatever that will cost. 

$1,200 ain't that much and people in the 30 Largest Cities who are gainfully employed until this mess won't get anything. NYC, Miami, Los Angeles, Chicago, where most people actually live. 

It shows how much of a sham this place really is. The bitterness that will ooze out the end of this thing, not sure where that energy is going to get released. I know what it got us in 2016. 

 

[eoMMan]

I was listening to the latest episode of Freakonomics and they has an economist talking about the number of lives saved since China shut down a bunch of factories due to the coronavirus virus. The lives saved were due to the decreased air pollution (which is visible to the eye) and he estimated tens of thousands of lives. I think it was 40k or so. 

This is one example of how so many lives will be saved or lost and not be directly counted in the coronavirus.

I'm starting to think that many more lives will be lost here in the US due to the shutdowns/closings compared to lives lost from the actual coronavirus itself. It will just be dann near impossibleto figure it out (suicides, people not going to the hospital, etc.)

 

[matttyl]

I’m not sure if this line of thinking/questions fit in this thread or not, but it deals with the economy.  And I’ll preface this whole thing by saying, THERE ARE NO EASY ANSWERS HERE.

Im a numbers guy, always have been.  Work as a life and health insurance agent, so familiar with life expectancy charts, risk, and mortality rates and the like (yeah, I’m a hoot at parties).  

Please correct any numbers that I might have wrong in the following.  From what I’ve read and heard, as testing increases and more people are found to actually have this virus, the computed death rate from it drops.  Initially we thought this had a death rate of 4-5%, but as we realized the scale of the infection and just how many people have it it’s dropped to around 1%.  It may drop more.  That 1% (at least from Italy’s numbers, which I trust more than China’s) has an average age of about 80, and about half have 3+ pre ex conditions of various sorts.  

These other countries, especially Italy and China, have put themselves on a countrywide lockdown.  Like complete shut down.  I not only see that as being tough to implement here, but also Yup impossible for Americans as a whole to adhere to.  Sure, FBGs (myself included) will listen to the warnings and heed the advice, but I don’t see enough Americans doing so to the point of it being effective nationwide.  

Looking at the worst case scenarios given by the CDC (and others) for the US,  the range presented was between 200k and 1.7m deaths from this.  If these have been updated, please let me know.  On an average year, the US already has 2.8M deaths - and a chunk of those are from the most susceptible to the virus (older and those with a pre-ex).  

Being the numbers guy that I am, one of my favorite recent movies has been The Big Short.  I’m sure many of you have seen it - amazing cast list and it won quite a few awards.  It was also, by and large, very accurate.  A line in the movie (yes, said by Brad Pitt) is that for every percent increase in unemployment, 40k people die.  I’ve been thinking a lot about that line lately, with our current events.  Did a little digging to see where that came from and it’s accuracy, came across this.  It’s a podcast talking about that line specifically, and in it a financial  journalist for The New York Times and NPR says that’s a “good rule of thumb.”  With shutting everything down, we’re talking about 20+% unemployment.  If we assume that’s a 17% increase, and that stat is true and holds true through this situation, we’re talking about ~700k people.  Here in America, people’s healthcare is tied to their jobs, if they lose their jobs, they lose their healthcare (yes, lots of caveats to that statement).  People take their own lives.  They take the lives of others with increased crime.  Strokes and heart attacks go up.  That all has consequences.  THERE ARE NO EASY ANSWERS. 

Where I’m going with this increasingly long post, is that I don’t see the half baked measures we’re taking to stop the spread working with our society.  Americans will simply not adhere to a total lockdown for 2+ months (and I’ve heard it could take much longer), and no guarantee that we won’t have outbreaks starting back up late summer when we let kids go back to school, or play baseball/football games.  Some doctors have said we need 6-12 months of this self isolation stuff.  Won’t happen here.  So I don’t see a way around hundreds of thousands dying from this no matter what we conceivably do.  I also don’t see a way that our economy isn’t going to be horribly and permanently harmed.  Ok, maybe not “permanently”, but we’re talking years if not a decade or longer to fully recover from, and that only starts when things get back to “normal”, whatever that will end up being.  Sorry for the long post, wrapping my head around our new reality.  

 

[matttyl]

I'm starting to think that many more lives will be lost here in the US due to the shutdowns/closings compared to lives lost from the actual coronavirus itself. It will just be dann near impossibleto figure it out (suicides, people not going to the hospital, etc.)

Exactly what my long post was about. 

 

[matttyl]

Yes, same page.  I’m trying to look at the biggest picture possible, and what we want to have as a society/economy in 1 year, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years.....

 

[snogger]

T.L.T.Quote but... 

I agree with your assessment that a lot of Americans are not currently, and probably will not adhere to recommendations to isolate.. and this isn't China were we can enact lock down and start arresting people ( short of Martial Law  ) ..

But, in the short term at least, we do need to limit the burden this could cause to our Hospitals that could not handle having a "Peak Sickness", rather then a "curved sickness" rate..
and that is where the multiple deaths come from "Peak Sickness".. Not enough room at hospitals. not enough ventilators, etc. leads to more deaths.. 

If we can bring the curve down to a "manageable level", then we can slowly start returning to our normal lives.
Due to the fact a Vaccine is 12+ months out, we have to do whatever we can to bring the curve rate down. 

To MOP's point.. I agree that it was already going to suck economically being just a trillion dollars in debt.. this is going to be a HUGE burden to everyone to pay back. Whoever is elected in November is going to spend those 4 years trying to dig us out of the debt hole.. and it won't be pretty for most.

 

[zamboni]

I'm starting to think that many more lives will be lost here in the US due to the shutdowns/closings compared to lives lost from the actual coronavirus itself. It will just be dann near impossibleto figure it out (suicides, people not going to the hospital, etc.)

Sadly, this is my concern, too. Not just the virus itself but the ripple effects of how many lives may be impacted. 

It's depressing alone to think about, but it's a sad reality. 

 

[TwinTurbo]

Sadly, this is my concern, too. Not just the virus itself but the ripple effects of how many lives may be impacted. 

It's depressing alone to think about, but it's a sad reality. 

One silver lining is that the drug dealer supply chain is broken too. 

 

[Jayrod]

Gas just hit $1.59/gal here.

My biggest fear at this point is deflation.

 

[DrJ]

I agree with your assessment that a lot of Americans are not currently, and probably will not adhere to recommendations to isolate.. and this isn't China were we can enact lock down and start arresting people ( short of Martial Law  ) ..

But, in the short term at least, we do need to limit the burden this could cause to our Hospitals that could not handle having a "Peak Sickness", rather then a "curved sickness" rate..
and that is where the multiple deaths come from "Peak Sickness".. Not enough room at hospitals. not enough ventilators, etc. leads to more deaths.. 

If we can bring the curve down to a "manageable level", then we can slowly start returning to our normal lives.
Due to the fact a Vaccine is 12+ months out, we have to do whatever we can to bring the curve rate down. 

To MOP's point.. I agree that it was already going to suck economically being just a trillion dollars in debt.. this is going to be a HUGE burden to everyone to pay back. Whoever is elected in November is going to spend those 4 years trying to dig us out of the debt hole.. and it won't be pretty for most.

I figure they just print up a bunch of money and don't really worry too much about paying it back - just assume that it will eventually happen.      You can't let the GDP drop, or the debt to GDP ratio will spike and servicing the debt becomes unmanageable anyways.     Especially if at any point our credit got downgraded.    So they'll print and print and print until they don't have to print anymore (never).   

 

[zamboni]

Gas just hit $1.59/gal here.

My biggest fear at this point is deflation.

With all the money being pumped into the system, I doubt that happens. If anything, we’re bound to inevitably face inflation.

 

[DrJ]

With all the money being pumped into the system, I doubt that happens. If anything, we’re bound to inevitably face inflation.

Same.   Not short term, but definitely longer term.      If deflation happens, you can't service the debt either.    We are essentially a slave to our debt now.