Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Matt Harmon @MattHarmon_BYB 13h13 hours ago
There will be fights to get David Johnson in fantasy drafts next season.
There will be fights to get David Johnson in fantasy drafts next season.
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Dynasty and Redraft: David Johnson Saints (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
shader
Footballguy
I don't see how anyone could pick David Johnson 1st overall next year? Honestly, this is the type of thinking that leads to a bunch of angry owners in October. The guy is obviously good. But first overall? Gurley and Le'Veon, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson...these are all much better choices, imo.
I don't mind out of the box thinking, but this reeks of Jeremy Hill and CJ Anderson last year.
One thing to always remember with these running backs that explode toward the end of the year is that they are playing tired and beat up defenses. David Johnson had 35 carries for the SEASON heading into week 13. That's not much use at all.
It will be a different story when he starts, gets a full workload, and gets tired at the same time that the rest of the league wears out.
Is he top 5 in dynasty? Absolutely. Top 5 in re-draft? I suppose possibly around 5 or 6 would be fair...but his numbers are too touchdown dependent and he's not proven it from week 1 to week 17 yet.
shader
Footballguy
But he's not a proven commodity. He's proven to be capable of big plays here and there and a few really great performances towards the end of the season.
The NFL is littered with guys who have had great games from the running back spot.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
No way i take Charles or Peterson in front of DJ.
DJ isn't TD dependant. He catches 3-4 balls a game. He probably has the highest floor of any RB in the league if he is the starter in AZ next year. Which I'm assuming he will be.
3-4 catches a game
GL work on one of the best offenses in the NFL
Bell - injury
Gurley - offense sucks
Charles - injury + Ware timeshare
Peterson - old slowing down
Yeah DJ is my #1 RB going into next season. I could move him down if it looks like they are going to do some kind of split with CJ or Ellington but I don't see a scenario where they take DJ off the GL or passing down work so he looks like a safe bet to me.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Right now I would consider bell and Gurley over him maybe... that's about it.
shader
Footballguy
Obviously with the injured backs, you want to read pre-season reports.
Talking re-draft in January is a bit pointless, as your "Rams offense sucks" line proves. The Rams have an entire off-season to address their offensive woes. If their offense looks basically unchanged in August, then maybe we'll reconsider.
Fortunately none of us are going to have drafts for our re-draft leagues at this point. The running back position is quite awful right now in the NFL. Lots of aging players, lots of injured players, and not a lot of great young players.
But I still can't imagine taking David Johnson 1st overall. A lot would have to happen between now and August for me to sign up for that.
shader
Footballguy
Freeman should be considered too. His full season accomplishments aren't being given enough credit. He just won the PPR rb title by a long shot. Normally when you have a 24 year old that has a 1500 total yards and 70+ receptions, he'd be a slam dunk for consideration.
I'd also watch Lamar Miller. If he goes to an ideal destination (ie, Dallas), I'd draft him first overall. Elite talent.
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I wouldn't take Johnson #1, but the only way I'd even consider taking Freeman over him is if they don't bring in any other RBs before next season. His FF performance was because of volume, he's not nearly as talented IMO.
Milkman
Footballguy
1st RB not 1st overall. I could see Gurley going before DJ. I'd take DJ 1st right now though.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Lol @ Freeman before DJ. Freeman was pretty awful the second half of the season running the ball. No way he gets the same usage next year if he doesn't improve.
Loan Sharks
Not a Wolf
It's scarier that DJ didn't play the whole season. A full year stats could have been insane.
Rumor is that Chris Johnson might be willing to come back to Ari & they'd be interested in having him back. Obviously, the compensation will be a factor, but if this happens, this has to ding David Johnson's value, at least a little, right? I still think David Johnson would be the #1, but would Chris command a slightly larger back-up role?
zamboni
Footballguy
I don't think CJ would eat much into DJ's workload any more than Ellington or DJ did himself before CJ got hurt. CJ would probably just take Ellington's spot as veteran depth.
Maybe to spell on occasion, but this backfield seems to clearly be DJ's as long as he can stay healthy. He's faster than CJ at this point, a better receiver, stronger at the goal line, and seems to have improved markedly in pass pro.
georg013
Footballguy
What is the going rate for DJ these days? From the sound of things, he seems to be valued pretty highly.
Saw somewhere that one owner was looking for:
Eddie Lacy and Sammy Watkins (dynasty league) for DJ and Ellington. Does that sound about right? I will hang up and listen to the DJ owners in here.
Saw somewhere that one owner was looking for:
Eddie Lacy and Sammy Watkins (dynasty league) for DJ and Ellington. Does that sound about right? I will hang up and listen to the DJ owners in here.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Ive been seeing him as the RB2/3 in dynasty start ups. His value is approximately that. In the one league I tried to acquire him at least.
I liked him going into the draft so my opinion might be biased. But I have him splitting RB1 with Gurley with Bell behind both. Peterson(Gurley) or Forte(Johnson), can't go wrong.
I liked him going into the draft so my opinion might be biased. But I have him splitting RB1 with Gurley with Bell behind both. Peterson(Gurley) or Forte(Johnson), can't go wrong.
Otis
Footballguy
georg013
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
I agree it was fast and he may not be THE #1 dynasty RB. But really, who is ahead of him? Gurley and Bell? I really may not trade him for either one of those guys - it would at least require some thought.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Moonshine
Footballguy
Are there any worries that this guy may be getting over-hyped? He was a blast to watch, and I think he demonstrated significant ability in both the rush and pass game, but I'm not sure his breakout year wasn't too dissimilar to Jeremy Hill & CJ Anderson in 2014.
If you paint it with a broad brush, you see young runners in prolific offenses, asked to start after injuries open up the starting spot very late in the season (DJ didn't get significant carries until early December, Anderson not until late November, and Hill saw carries earliest when he stepped up in early November), who run away with the starting job in a dramatic fashion, generating first round buzz.
Hill salvaged his season by way of a number of short yardage touchdowns, but I think it goes without saying these two were a disappointment based on their ADP for 2015 and the hype going into the season.
Personally, I think the sky is the limit for this kid and don't disagree with the idea that he holds top 3 dynasty value going forward. I'm just curious to hear if there's any significant reasoning why this kid should be able to avoid a fate similar to that of Hill and Anderson.
If you paint it with a broad brush, you see young runners in prolific offenses, asked to start after injuries open up the starting spot very late in the season (DJ didn't get significant carries until early December, Anderson not until late November, and Hill saw carries earliest when he stepped up in early November), who run away with the starting job in a dramatic fashion, generating first round buzz.
Hill salvaged his season by way of a number of short yardage touchdowns, but I think it goes without saying these two were a disappointment based on their ADP for 2015 and the hype going into the season.
Personally, I think the sky is the limit for this kid and don't disagree with the idea that he holds top 3 dynasty value going forward. I'm just curious to hear if there's any significant reasoning why this kid should be able to avoid a fate similar to that of Hill and Anderson.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I was just offered Johnson for Sammy Watkins in a dynasty league and I turned it down. I just feel Watkins will be just as valuable short term and more so long term. Of course having to only start 1 RB helps too.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It's possible he'll fail to live up to the hype, but whether he does or not will have nothing to do with Hill, Anderson or the hype itself. I could just as easily give anecdotal examples of guys that did well at the end of their rookie seasons and continued to explode the next season (Foster, Charles, Rice, Bell, etc.).
Moonshine
Footballguy
I don't disagree, I've just found it slightly odd thus far that I've seen very little in terms of dissenting opinions, especially with Hill and Anderson so close in the rear view mirror. DJ's expected success is the standard now, which is why I didn't feel like it was worth mentioning players like Bell and Foster. The alternative, of him following a Hill/Anderson path, hasn't been discussed in depth, so I figured it was worth mentioning to see if others had any concerns.
Personally, I think he'll continue to be successful, especially if Arians' "Bell Cow" talk is legitimate. I'm more concerned about Rawls, whose output was remarkable but with a small % of games played and who is coming off of an injury, but it wouldn't stop me from aggressively seeking him as well.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't think David Johnson is like Hill because he is much more gifted as a receiver. There really is no reason to take Johnson off the field.
He had some issues with running inside and pad level. Arian's likely needed to see more of him in pass protection before fully trusting him as well. He seemed to improve on his weaker areas over the course of the season. So I don't see what he did last season as fluky or difficult to repeat. If he stays healthy he should be very good.
CJ Anderson had turf toe early on in the season and he struggled. Later on in the year he was putting up good per touch numbers again, but still didn't see the same type of workload that he had in 2014. This kind of thing can happen to any RB. While I think Anderson's ADP last season was a bit too high because he didn't have a long enough track record, if he had been healthy I think he could have performed well enough to justify it.
Hills performance in 2014 came in four games for the most part and against bad defenses. I think there was more reason to doubt him repeating or building on that because of Gio Bernard.
I have been a wet blanket for the most part in regards to Johnson, trying to draw the breaks on this bullet train early on last season, but he has improved in the areas that I thought would hold him back. I don't see any issues holding him back moving forward aside from injury which derails all players.
I do think it is wise to question and be skeptical of players with only one good season. But I don't feel like what Johnson did last year was a fluke.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Things that could derail the Johnson "hype machine":
1. Injury - it could happen to any RB of course;
2. Chris Johnson has a far bigger role than any of us wants to admit. Arians has always preferred veterans and Chris Johnson played very well for the team last season;
3. He can't handle the wear and tear of a full workload for a full season - like you said his success came later in season after flashes in limited duty during the first half of the season.
Bottom line is we're not going to know what will happen - we're all just making educated guesses. As you imply, very few doubted Hill and Anderson after their breakouts.
Moonshine
Footballguy
Excellent points. Agreed, with both you and Octopus. I actually forgot about Anderson's turf toe injury, so I'm glad you mentioned that. I'll be interested to see what he can do this year.
Not to derail this thread, but McCaffrey reminds me a lot of Johnson (admittedly, I didn't get to watch much of Johnson in college). Anytime either one of them has the ball in their hands, it feels like something remarkable could happen (like DJs show stopping run against Philly in Week 15 last year). Elusive, strong, well balanced, and with fantastic vision and awareness. Comps aren't a strength of mine though, so that's just a personal observation from a McCaffrey homer. Hopefully McCaffrey gets a similar opportunity to Johnson in 2017.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am not even sure who McCaffrey is, but if he reminds you of David Johnson I would like to learn more. What is his first name and who did he play for?
Moonshine
Footballguy
Christian McCaffrey from Stanford. Like I said though, comps are very much not a strength of mine, nor is scouting in general, so please don't take my word for it or hold it against me if you feel otherwise. Definitely worth checking out though.
Edit: Octopus nailed it. Sorry for the derailment. I appreciate y'all humoring my thoughts, however inane they may be.
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Run It Up
Footballguy
Christian, Stanford. Eligible next year.
I can see the comparison, i feel the same way about McCaffrey this year as I did about Johnson last year. But I think he's somewhere between a Woodhead and a DJ. Where both are complete backs. I think McCaffrey is a better receiver and I think DJ is the more competent runner.
McCaffrey has got a similar frame as DJ tho, stupid ceiling imo just like DJ has that same Forte-like feel.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Interesting. Thanks for the tip guys I will find some time to check him out.
Milkman
Footballguy
I doubted both of those other backs. I get my fair share wrong but I thought both of those guys were frauds. DJ is so much better of an athlete.
zamboni
Footballguy
#1 and #3 are certainly viable, as for any RB. #2 does not really concern me because I think Arians views DJ as a veteran by now. Maybe not a time-tested 8 year vet, but not a rookie either. Don't forget that Arians was all set to hand the keys over to Ellington in his second year, but #1 and #3 above were instrumental in Ellington's fall from grace. We'll see if DJ can get over that hurdle.
The other thing is that Arians likes bigger backs, one of the reasons he always seemed a bit gun shy with Ellington. Certainly not an issue with the massive DJ.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yeah I was just playing devil's advocate to address Moonshine seeking dissenting opinions on the Johnson hype. Personally, I'm all in on Johnson.
kutta
Footballguy
The thing I like so much is that he is an amazing receiver, one of the best receiving RB's in the league. His questions were pass protection and running between the tackles. Once he showed he was very good at both of those, there is pretty much no reason to take him off the field except for rest. And Arians doesn't throw platitudes around willy-nilly. If he compliments you, he means it.
All signs point to him really taking off next year.
All signs point to him really taking off next year.
Fireinside
Footballguy
You really doubted Hill? I thought there was no one in this planet who doubted him, would really like to know why?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
There were a few people that thought his rookie season was "lucky" and others that said Gio would always cap his production. I'm pretty sure Milkman was one of the doubters on his talent and bostonfred was big on the Gio angle.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
My 2014 rookie rankings
Tier 1 - 1st round rookie pick value
WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans
RB Bishop Sankey
WR Marqise Lee
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
WR Brandin Cooks
TE Eric Ebron
WR Jordan Matthews
WR Davonte Adams
Tier 2 - Potential 1st round rookie pick value in a good situation. 2nd-3rd round value if not.
QB Johnny Manziel
RB Charles Sims
RB Tre Mason
TE Jace Amaro
WR Cody Latimer
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Donte Moncrief
RB Lache Seastrunk
QB Teddy Bridgewater
WR Allen Robinson
WR Jarvis Landry
RB Devonta Freeman
QB Blake Bortles
RB Jeremy Hill
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
QB Derek Carr
Pretty extensive debate with DAG about Hill who I compared to Michael Bush.
Totally felt like I had egg on my face in regards to Hill after his break out, but still doubted he would sustain that level of performance. I am a believer in Gio Bernards talent as to me Gio is a poor mans DeAngelo Williams.
Listened to Hill supporters saying that Hill beat out Bernard for the feature RB role while I thought the pattern of RBBC would continue and I think Bernard is the better player. Hue Jackson stuck with Hill last season despite Bernard clearly outplaying him while Andy Dalton was healthy.
Tier 1 - 1st round rookie pick value
WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans
RB Bishop Sankey
WR Marqise Lee
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
WR Brandin Cooks
TE Eric Ebron
WR Jordan Matthews
WR Davonte Adams
Tier 2 - Potential 1st round rookie pick value in a good situation. 2nd-3rd round value if not.
QB Johnny Manziel
RB Charles Sims
RB Tre Mason
TE Jace Amaro
WR Cody Latimer
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Donte Moncrief
RB Lache Seastrunk
QB Teddy Bridgewater
WR Allen Robinson
WR Jarvis Landry
RB Devonta Freeman
QB Blake Bortles
RB Jeremy Hill
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
QB Derek Carr
Pretty extensive debate with DAG about Hill who I compared to Michael Bush.
Totally felt like I had egg on my face in regards to Hill after his break out, but still doubted he would sustain that level of performance. I am a believer in Gio Bernards talent as to me Gio is a poor mans DeAngelo Williams.
Listened to Hill supporters saying that Hill beat out Bernard for the feature RB role while I thought the pattern of RBBC would continue and I think Bernard is the better player. Hue Jackson stuck with Hill last season despite Bernard clearly outplaying him while Andy Dalton was healthy.
steelers1080
Footballguy
I still think Hill could turn things around, he has a fumbling issue and his confidence seems to be gone. If he can increase his grip/change his grip to fumble less, and get his swagger back, he could easily be a top 10 back again.
That said, their new OC is their old QB coach, so I imagine he'll air it out a fair amount which might limit touches.
That said, their new OC is their old QB coach, so I imagine he'll air it out a fair amount which might limit touches.
