Dynasty and Redraft: David Johnson Saints (3 Viewers)

[steelers1080]

He'll come up short on a career year but I think he'll still be a league winner if he stays healthy. He just doesn't have the TD ceiling he's had in the past. 

Over/Under 70 catches?

I think that he could have a decrease in rushing TDs, from his high of 16 down to probably 8/9. But that his receiving TDs could go from 3/4 to 8 in an offense that's able to open things up a lot with the threat of Kyler running. Hopefully Kyler isn't run first, but the ability to scramble when necessary will allow DJ some space. I think that if Kyler runs too much that he'll end up like RG3 getting knocked out from 1 huge hit. 

 

[Milkman]

Over/Under 70 catches?

I think that he could have a decrease in rushing TDs, from his high of 16 down to probably 8/9. But that his receiving TDs could go from 3/4 to 8 in an offense that's able to open things up a lot with the threat of Kyler running. Hopefully Kyler isn't run first, but the ability to scramble when necessary will allow DJ some space. I think that if Kyler runs too much that he'll end up like RG3 getting knocked out from 1 huge hit. 

Over 70 and I agree with less than 10 rushing TDs. 

 

[Tanner9919]

I'll take the under 70, and less than 7 rushing TDs. the more you look at it he is/was a one-hit wonder. His career avg per rush is 4.1, and 56 yards rush/gm, with 37.7 yards/gm rec on 3.5 recs/gm.clearly his one 'good' year is the outlier, the rest of his career is  less than average.

add to this mixture a first year HC bringing a crazy scheme to the NFL with a rookie QB and an NFL-worst o-line, and the recipe is there for total futility.

he'll be overdrafted, and then will be on everyone's waiver wire by week 4. 

I'll take the under every time with his production, he's a lesser JAG

 

[Milkman]

I'll take the under 70, and less than 7 rushing TDs. the more you look at it he is/was a one-hit wonder. His career avg per rush is 4.1, and 56 yards rush/gm, with 37.7 yards/gm rec on 3.5 recs/gm.clearly his one 'good' year is the outlier, the rest of his career is  less than average.

add to this mixture a first year HC bringing a crazy scheme to the NFL with a rookie QB and an NFL-worst o-line, and the recipe is there for total futility.

he'll be overdrafted, and then will be on everyone's waiver wire by week 4. 

I'll take the under every time with his production, he's a lesser JAG

Yeah I couldn't disagree more but it's awesome you came on here and planted your flag. 

 

[Milkman]

David Johnson is the exact opposite of a Jag. He's one of the best receiving backs in the league and an amazing runner as well. A 230 pound freak of nature. Injury and McCoy robbed him of two prime years but i see him aging well. 

My guess is barring injury next year we will be talking about if he should be drafted #1 overall at his age.......

 

[TheWinz]

I'll take the under 70, and less than 7 rushing TDs. the more you look at it he is/was a one-hit wonder. His career avg per rush is 4.1, and 56 yards rush/gm, with 37.7 yards/gm rec on 3.5 recs/gm.clearly his one 'good' year is the outlier, the rest of his career is  less than average.

add to this mixture a first year HC bringing a crazy scheme to the NFL with a rookie QB and an NFL-worst o-line, and the recipe is there for total futility.

he'll be overdrafted, and then will be on everyone's waiver wire by week 4. 

I'll take the under every time with his production, he's a lesser JAG

One hit wonder?

- In his rookie season, he totaled 1038 yards & 12 TD's, with 4.6 YPC, good enough for RB8 (ahead of another rookie named Todd Gurley, who had 104 more carries)

- In year two, he totaled 1980 yards & 17 TD's, with a 4.2 YPC, and finished as RB1 (ahead of another sophomore named Todd Gurley, who had 7 more carries and a 3.2 YPC)

- In year three, he played less than 3 quarters of 1 game, and still totaled 91 yards and 6 catches

- In year four, he totaled 1387 yards & 10 TD's, with a 3.6 YPC, good enough for RB9

The only outlier stat that stands out is his 3.6 YPC from last year, but with a bottom of the barrel OL, he was screwed from the start.  Josh Rosen wasn't scaring anyone.  Do you not consider his rookie season good?

 

[Gally]

I'll take the under 70, and less than 7 rushing TDs. the more you look at it he is/was a one-hit wonder. His career avg per rush is 4.1, and 56 yards rush/gm, with 37.7 yards/gm rec on 3.5 recs/gm.clearly his one 'good' year is the outlier, the rest of his career is  less than average.

add to this mixture a first year HC bringing a crazy scheme to the NFL with a rookie QB and an NFL-worst o-line, and the recipe is there for total futility.

he'll be overdrafted, and then will be on everyone's waiver wire by week 4. 

I'll take the under every time with his production, he's a lesser JAG

One hit wonder?

- In his rookie season, he totaled 1038 yards & 12 TD's, with 4.6 YPC, good enough for RB8 (ahead of another rookie named Todd Gurley, who had 104 more carries)

- In year two, he totaled 1980 yards & 17 TD's, with a 4.2 YPC, and finished as RB1 (ahead of another sophomore named Todd Gurley, who had 7 more carries and a 3.2 YPC)

- In year three, he played less than 3 quarters of 1 game, and still totaled 91 yards and 6 catches

- In year four, he totaled 1387 yards & 10 TD's, with a 3.6 YPC, good enough for RB9

The only outlier stat that stands out is his 3.6 YPC from last year, but with a bottom of the barrel OL, he was screwed from the start.  Josh Rosen wasn't scaring anyone.  Do you not consider his rookie season good?

I came to say the same as TheWinz........for some reason the perception is that DJ was terrible last year.  I think that is because people see the terrible Arizona offense and think that DJ didn't do anything while he actually finished as an RB1 (10-12 RB overall in most scoring formats) in that terrible offense.  That is quite impressive and should be seen as a floor for his production because that offense as a whole can't be any worse. 

 

[TheDirtyWord]

If there was one player I swam upstream last year on with regard to conventional wisdom, and got right...it was Johnson.  You can take a look here....  To be fair, to come thru with 1400+ YFS and 10 TD’s is more than useful.  But those who owned DJ last year were disappointed for the most part.

I’m not as down on him this year, but...the last time he was epic was 2016.  FFC has DJ as the #5 pick (PPR & non-PPR) behind guys who averaged 1922 YFS & 14 TD’s in 2018 and whose 2019 outlooks look at least similar.  So comparing his 2018 with the 4 above him on ADP, you can see the shelf.

There were reasons last year I was down on DJ that focused on ‘worst case scenario - 1) new coaching staff 2) rookie QB 3) bad OL.  Those haven’t changed although the changes in 2019 look much more geared toward success than last year relating to offensive production.  That said...

Kliff Kingsbury?  Let’s not forget that he had simply been hired as USC’s OC the month prior.  He may be a burgeoning offensive mind, but in terms of being able to establish a professional program?  He’s young and I suspect the ‘McVay trend’ helped his cause...but is he McVay?  There is risk here.

Kyler Murray?  I’m high on him - don’t get me wrong.  But are we so confident he is going to take the league by storm?  Baker Mayfield came in and was great.  But he also had extensive starting experience at Oklahoma.  And games started has shown itself to be an indicator of transition difficulty at that position.

OL?  How much better is it? 

One other factor as it relates to DJ’s ceiling...the RB2 for the Cardinals.  Nope, not Chase Edmunds.  Kyler Murray.  And in DJ’s monstrous 2016, after Fitz, the leading WR after that was John Brown with 39.  That WR corps has been built up these last two off-seasons...as great of a target that DJ is...I can’t see anything close to the receiving production he had (80/879/4)...which really is the component that exploded his value.  I guess bottomline for me is that people are still equating his ceiling with 2016 when he put up 2100/20.  I don’t think it’s that anymore.  I’d argue that Joe Mixon’s ceiling Is higher.

Now Wilks/McCoy were disastrous.  But there is some high risk factor here coaching wise IMO as well.  Let’s also look at usage...the 4 RB’s being drafted above DJ (Barkley, CMC, Zeke, Kamara) averaged 842 snaps in 2018...and Kamara is being drafted where he is because of the anticipated YoY snap increase with Ingram gone.  DJ had 749.  Now the low overall snap count on offense likely contributed to that and there is an anticipation that KK will run an extremely fast paced offense.  But...we have good G2 on usage patterns of the above 4 players.  That’s a question mark IMO for DJ.

For me, I’d be evaluating his prospects against the floors of the next tier of RB’s (LeVeon, Mixon, Gordon, Conner, Cook, Williams, Gurley).

 

[tkrull]

I don't see anyone banging the table that he should be in that first tier of 4.  In my mind he's clearly in the front half of tier 2.  Opportunity and warts abound for everyone in that group.

 

[Milkman]

If there was one player I swam upstream last year on with regard to conventional wisdom, and got right...it was Johnson.  You can take a look here....  To be fair, to come thru with 1400+ YFS and 10 TD’s is more than useful.  But those who owned DJ last year were disappointed for the most part.

I’m not as down on him this year, but...the last time he was epic was 2016.  FFC has DJ as the #5 pick (PPR & non-PPR) behind guys who averaged 1922 YFS & 14 TD’s in 2018 and whose 2019 outlooks look at least similar.  So comparing his 2018 with the 4 above him on ADP, you can see the shelf.

There were reasons last year I was down on DJ that focused on ‘worst case scenario - 1) new coaching staff 2) rookie QB 3) bad OL.  Those haven’t changed although the changes in 2019 look much more geared toward success than last year relating to offensive production.  That said... OL is healthy this year it should be significantly better

Kliff Kingsbury?  Let’s not forget that he had simply been hired as USC’s OC the month prior.  He may be a burgeoning offensive mind, but in terms of being able to establish a professional program?  He’s young and I suspect the ‘McVay trend’ helped his cause...but is he McVay?  There is risk here. Kliff Kingsbury is the perfect fit with Kyler

Kyler Murray?  I’m high on him - don’t get me wrong.  But are we so confident he is going to take the league by storm?  Baker Mayfield came in and was great.  But he also had extensive starting experience at Oklahoma.  And games started has shown itself to be an indicator of transition difficulty at that position. yes Kyler is taking the league by storm in this offense

OL?  How much better is it? 

One other factor as it relates to DJ’s ceiling...the RB2 for the Cardinals.  Nope, not Chase Edmunds.  Kyler Murray.  And in DJ’s monstrous 2016, after Fitz, the leading WR after that was John Brown with 39.  That WR corps has been built up these last two off-seasons...as great of a target that DJ is...I can’t see anything close to the receiving production he had (80/879/4)...which really is the component that exploded his value.  I guess bottomline for me is that people are still equating his ceiling with 2016 when he put up 2100/20.  I don’t think it’s that anymore.  I’d argue that Joe Mixon’s ceiling Is higher. That's fair but he's still the best receiving weapon they have

Now Wilks/McCoy were disastrous.  But there is some high risk factor here coaching wise IMO as well.  Let’s also look at usage...the 4 RB’s being drafted above DJ (Barkley, CMC, Zeke, Kamara) averaged 842 snaps in 2018...and Kamara is being drafted where he is because of the anticipated YoY snap increase with Ingram gone.  DJ had 749.  Now the low overall snap count on offense likely contributed to that and there is an anticipation that KK will run an extremely fast paced offense.  But...we have good G2 on usage patterns of the above 4 players.  That’s a question mark IMO for DJ. They are running more plays this year.

For me, I’d be evaluating his prospects against the floors of the next tier of RB’s (LeVeon, Mixon, Gordon, Conner, Cook, Williams, Gurley).

Nice post. Tried to bold some responses.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Nice post. Tried to bold some responses.

I actually admire the Cardinals for going outside the box here and also all-in...but moves like this have just as much downside risk as upside potential and I’d say all of us will be in the dark until the season starts.  Will they run more plays?   Without a doubt.  But we have no insight into substitution patterns.  Given the fast pace they are trying to establish, will DJ be on the field 75% of the time or 65%?   We know how the 4 RB’s being drafted above DJ will be used...that’s established.  But a difference of 100 snaps could represent a yardage delta of 250-300 YFS.

Whether Kliff Kingsbury is the perfect fit with Murray...I mean, Kingsbury really has zero cred.  It’s not a slight on him, but I think he’s being elevated as some type of master fixer of offenses very prematurely.  Remember, the best DJ has been was with Bruce Arians...widely regarded as one of the top NFL offensive minds in the game.  This isn’t plug and play.  Johnson was better once McCoy was fired, but he also didn’t come back to his 2016 self.

As for the OL, even healthy, it’s a below average group...and some of those guys - Pugh and Gilbert in particular, have been chronically injured.  Your last point on DJ’s receiving skills...he might well be the best option, but that doesn’t mean much with regard to target distribution.  If the other guys prove worthy targets...then they’ll eat into DJ’s top line potential, much like a Year 2 and improved Calvin Ridley is likely to eat into Julio Jones top line potential.

The way the market is breaking out...there is a clear Top 4.  After that...it’s a muddled RB market that I’d place as many as 10 RB’s in and I’d be very hesitant to place Johnson at the top of it which is where he resides at the moment.  Let’s just say, I don’t want the 5th pick.

 

[kutta]

If there was one player I swam upstream last year on with regard to conventional wisdom, and got right...it was Johnson.  You can take a look here....  To be fair, to come thru with 1400+ YFS and 10 TD’s is more than useful.  But those who owned DJ last year were disappointed for the most part.

I’m not as down on him this year, but...the last time he was epic was 2016.  FFC has DJ as the #5 pick (PPR & non-PPR) behind guys who averaged 1922 YFS & 14 TD’s in 2018 and whose 2019 outlooks look at least similar.  So comparing his 2018 with the 4 above him on ADP, you can see the shelf.

There were reasons last year I was down on DJ that focused on ‘worst case scenario - 1) new coaching staff 2) rookie QB 3) bad OL.  Those haven’t changed although the changes in 2019 look much more geared toward success than last year relating to offensive production.  That said...

Kliff Kingsbury?  Let’s not forget that he had simply been hired as USC’s OC the month prior.  He may be a burgeoning offensive mind, but in terms of being able to establish a professional program?  He’s young and I suspect the ‘McVay trend’ helped his cause...but is he McVay?  There is risk here.

Kyler Murray?  I’m high on him - don’t get me wrong.  But are we so confident he is going to take the league by storm?  Baker Mayfield came in and was great.  But he also had extensive starting experience at Oklahoma.  And games started has shown itself to be an indicator of transition difficulty at that position.

OL?  How much better is it? 

One other factor as it relates to DJ’s ceiling...the RB2 for the Cardinals.  Nope, not Chase Edmunds.  Kyler Murray.  And in DJ’s monstrous 2016, after Fitz, the leading WR after that was John Brown with 39.  That WR corps has been built up these last two off-seasons...as great of a target that DJ is...I can’t see anything close to the receiving production he had (80/879/4)...which really is the component that exploded his value.  I guess bottomline for me is that people are still equating his ceiling with 2016 when he put up 2100/20.  I don’t think it’s that anymore.  I’d argue that Joe Mixon’s ceiling Is higher.

Now Wilks/McCoy were disastrous.  But there is some high risk factor here coaching wise IMO as well.  Let’s also look at usage...the 4 RB’s being drafted above DJ (Barkley, CMC, Zeke, Kamara) averaged 842 snaps in 2018...and Kamara is being drafted where he is because of the anticipated YoY snap increase with Ingram gone.  DJ had 749.  Now the low overall snap count on offense likely contributed to that and there is an anticipation that KK will run an extremely fast paced offense.  But...we have good G2 on usage patterns of the above 4 players.  That’s a question mark IMO for DJ.

For me, I’d be evaluating his prospects against the floors of the next tier of RB’s (LeVeon, Mixon, Gordon, Conner, Cook, Williams, Gurley).

I agree with @Milkman for the most part - good post. 

I think what’s missing is DJ excels in the open field and catching the ball. I see him lining up as a WR a lot, as well as catching the ball out of the backfield. Yes, the WR corps has improved, but besides Fitz, they are still very young. DJ may be the best or second best WR on this team still. 

I put DJ at the very top of the second group of WR’s and would not hesitate to take him at 1.05.

 

[Milkman]

I actually admire the Cardinals for going outside the box here and also all-in...but moves like this have just as much downside risk as upside potential and I’d say all of us will be in the dark until the season starts.  Will they run more plays?   Without a doubt.  But we have no insight into substitution patterns.  Given the fast pace they are trying to establish, will DJ be on the field 75% of the time or 65%?   We know how the 4 RB’s being drafted above DJ will be used...that’s established.  But a difference of 100 snaps could represent a yardage delta of 250-300 YFS.

Whether Kliff Kingsbury is the perfect fit with Murray...I mean, Kingsbury really has zero cred.  It’s not a slight on him, but I think he’s being elevated as some type of master fixer of offenses very prematurely.  Remember, the best DJ has been was with Bruce Arians...widely regarded as one of the top NFL offensive minds in the game.  This isn’t plug and play.  Johnson was better once McCoy was fired, but he also didn’t come back to his 2016 self.

As for the OL, even healthy, it’s a below average group...and some of those guys - Pugh and Gilbert in particular, have been chronically injured.  Your last point on DJ’s receiving skills...he might well be the best option, but that doesn’t mean much with regard to target distribution.  If the other guys prove worthy targets...then they’ll eat into DJ’s top line potential, much like a Year 2 and improved Calvin Ridley is likely to eat into Julio Jones top line potential.

The way the market is breaking out...there is a clear Top 4.  After that...it’s a muddled RB market that I’d place as many as 10 RB’s in and I’d be very hesitant to place Johnson at the top of it which is where he resides at the moment.  Let’s just say, I don’t want the 5th pick.

I like your posts. They are well thought out and explain how you got there. I'll just say the big exception I have with it is how little faith you have in Kliff Kingsbury. College football has been way more innovative than the pros for a while now. I agree there's no sure thing but I put his chances of being successful, at least offensively, a lot higher than you seem too. That's where our big difference in valuing DJ ultimately comes from imo. 

Let's say that hypothetically Arizona turns into a top 10 offense this year. If you knew with certainty that was going to happen would that bump DJ up into that top tier of RB for this year?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I like your posts. They are well thought out and explain how you got there. I'll just say the big exception I have with it is how little faith you have in Kliff Kingsbury. College football has been way more innovative than the pros for a while now. I agree there's no sure thing but I put his chances of being successful, at least offensively, a lot higher than you seem too. That's where our big difference in valuing DJ ultimately comes from imo. 

Let's say that hypothetically Arizona turns into a top 10 offense this year. If you knew with certainty that was going to happen would that bump DJ up into that top tier of RB for this year?

Certainly we are starting to see that innovation cycle accelerate from college to pro, but I’d slant the actual innovation toward strategy not personnel.  Either way, I feel like Kingsbury is getting the benefit of that perception by association versus actual record/accomplishment. What Coach recently has successfully transitioned from college to the pros; either as an HC or an OC?

Back to Kingsbury, is it fair to say his coaching career to date has been less than stellar?  In the two years he had Patrick Mahomes, TT went 12-13.  In the three years under Tuberville, TT went 20-17 and during that time, only two guys got drafted (1 6th rounder and 1 7th rounder).  At the same time, he likely can’t be any worse than Wilks/McCoy.  

But, his HC experience came in a college conference that’s often times ridiculed for its lack of defense.  Now he gets to face the Rams/Seahawks 25% of the time?  And I know he Cards schedule is actually favorable this year...but to simply assume KK’s transition to the pro game will be turbulent free because his personnel matches perfectly?

Lastly, the Top 5 RB’s (including Gurley with the 4 aforementioned) last year, their respective teams had a 56/44 Pass/Run ratio.  All I hear about Kingsbury is how he’s pass/pass/pass.  And while you need to be able to contribute in the passing game as an RB to get into that top tier, you can’t see you rushing focus decrease too much.

I’m simply pointing out risk, but there are about 3-5 other guys I’d feel better about than DJ at 1.05.

 

[Milkman]

Certainly we are starting to see that innovation cycle accelerate from college to pro, but I’d slant the actual innovation toward strategy not personnel.  Either way, I feel like Kingsbury is getting the benefit of that perception by association versus actual record/accomplishment. What Coach recently has successfully transitioned from college to the pros; either as an HC or an OC?

Back to Kingsbury, is it fair to say his coaching career to date has been less than stellar?  In the two years he had Patrick Mahomes, TT went 12-13.  In the three years under Tuberville, TT went 20-17 and during that time, only two guys got drafted (1 6th rounder and 1 7th rounder).  At the same time, he likely can’t be any worse than Wilks/McCoy.  

But, his HC experience came in a college conference that’s often times ridiculed for its lack of defense.  Now he gets to face the Rams/Seahawks 25% of the time?  And I know he Cards schedule is actually favorable this year...but to simply assume KK’s transition to the pro game will be turbulent free because his personnel matches perfectly?

Lastly, the Top 5 RB’s (including Gurley with the 4 aforementioned) last year, their respective teams had a 56/44 Pass/Run ratio.  All I hear about Kingsbury is how he’s pass/pass/pass.  And while you need to be able to contribute in the passing game as an RB to get into that top tier, you can’t see you rushing focus decrease too much.

I’m simply pointing out risk, but there are about 3-5 other guys I’d feel better about than DJ at 1.05.

His offenses were 

23rd, 54th, 2nd, 5th, 23rd, 16th

So yes I'm banking on Arizona's D not being very good and their Offense taking a big step forward with Kyler Murray. Lots of game scripts where they are down and throwing a lot. David Johnson is one of the best at that imo. 

It's not just college coaches. It's concepts that are coming from college. The NFL is taking those concepts more and more. 

Anyway. Great talk. We've beat this horse to death. All we can do is wait and see now. 

 

[DAG]

Whether Kliff Kingsbury is the perfect fit with Murray...I mean, Kingsbury really has zero cred.  It’s not a slight on him, but I think he’s being elevated as some type of master fixer of offenses very prematurely.  Remember, the best DJ has been was with Bruce Arians...widely regarded as one of the top NFL offensive minds in the game.  This isn’t plug and play.  Johnson was better once McCoy was fired, but he also didn’t come back to his 2016 self.

This is a point worth emphasizing. Back when Arians called it quits in AZ, one of the questions several posters raised in the dynasty value thread (especially @FF Ninja) was "do you want DJ without Arians?" and that remains a very open question to me. I don't see anyone in here predicting a return to 2016, so I don't want to construct a straw man, but that season has served in these discussions as a useful benchmark for what he might approach or approximate in a comeback season. It's also a useful barometer, I think, for his receiving potential, which is what makes him potentially elite imo. PFF has a great breakdown of DJ's receiving role in 2016, a season during which they rated him as the best receiver in the NFL (regardless of position). A sum of some of the more important numbers (quoting from the article):

Johnson lined up all over the field for the Cardinals this season, not just in the backfield. He spent time split out as a true wideout on both sides of the field, as well as at every slot position you can think of; he was by far the league’s most involved back in the passing game

Johnson led the NFL in targets (107), receptions (80), receiving yards (879) and missed tackles forced in the passing game (27) among running backs, and was some distance clear of the pack in three of those four categories

Most backs—even those that are significant factors in the passing game—are really only used on screen passes, as check-down outlets, or on quick passes over the middle just beyond the line of scrimmage. The average back is targeted just 0.8 yards downfield . . . . [by way of contrast] Johnson . . . had the league’s highest average depth of target among all running backs, at 4.6 yards downfield. When you consider that he still has a chunk of the traditional backfield targets dragging that average down, there is a significant volume of legitimate downfield play in his game that isn’t there for most running backs.

When lined up as a receiver or working downfield on wheel routes, Johnson’s average depth of target was 8.2 yards downfield, more commensurate with a TE or receiver than a running back. Compare that to Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell, who is seen as a similar kind of versatile receiving threat to Johnson, and there is a 3-yard gap in average depth of target . . . .

I expect DJ's receiving role to improve over what it was last year. In response to @steelers1080's question above, I'd take the over on 70 receptions, but think he'll remain in the 70s. He's a great receiver and it just makes sense for him to serve as a safety valve for a young QB. At the same time, I very much agree that the addition of more potential talent at WR may mean a wider target distribution. But the most important thing to me is what kind of receiving role does he play? His use as a RB + WR (in terms of route tree, alignment, depth of target) under Arians was very unique, even as compared against other RBs with similar skill sets like Bell. His usage was also off the charts. Graham Barfield (NFL.com fantasy writer) wrote that DJ averaged 31.1 routes per game, with a 19% target share in 2016. He was used similarly in 2015, when he lined up as a wideout or in the slot 18% of the time (20% of the time in 2016). 

The 2018 season is of limited value as a point of contrast because it was a historically awful situation. But we still might glean something from how a change in DJ's receiving role could matter. According to PFF, Johnson was targeted from the slot or out wide 43% of the time in 2016 and produced 40% of his total receiving yards off those targets. In 2018 his targets dropped way off but, as PFF argues, it's just as important to note that "the way he was targeted changed:" his targets from the slot or out wide dropped to 21.4%, and his percentage of yards from out wide dropped to 24.9%; his average depth of target dropped from 4.58 yards (in 2016) to 0.60. This is with Byron Leftwich, who learned under Arians, taking over as OC mid season and doing his best to emulate Arians's system. This same PFF article expresses confidence that Kingsbury will use DJ more from the slot as a receiver, and it also has promising projections on his numbers running out of the shotgun (PFF is generally really high on DJ in the new offense). Also, Kingsbury has promised to use DJ "creatively" and I think he will. He doesn't need a full revival of Arians's 2015/2016 usage, but what kind of approximation -- in terms of alignment and depth of target -- can we really expect?

As for Kingsbury, I can easily see him giving this offense a major jolt in the short term. But I'm a little surprised that the Cardinals offense is getting this much hype (in both FF circles and sports media more generally) given his very unusual path to an NFL head coaching job. Usually when college coaches transition to the league they've had extended success in CFB, and even then there are persistent questions about whether they're ready to take the next step. Kingsbury by contrast had a losing record at Texas Tech and struggled against the best programs. Things have changed of course. As others have mentioned, the college game is where a lot of offensive innovation is taking place and we're thankfully shedding some of the presumptions about those offenses translating to the NFL. But normally you would think that an organization with a somewhat questionable history of ownership/front office management hiring a fired/losing college head coach who was on his way to being a college coordinator would be getting more scrutiny. I recognize a lot of this is bc of Murray, who I really like. It's also a product, as others have mentioned, of the McVay effect. And it could very much work out; I actually admire AZ for lining things up the way they have. But for it to work out past the early "take the league by storm" phase, Kingsbury would have to be a pretty significant historical outlier.

I'm going to stick by my middle of the road projection. I think DJ has a solid but not spectacular RB1 season and I agree with others here that he's in the upper part of that second tier of players in redraft, all of whom have questions. 

For dynasty, I'll also stick by my boring prediction: he recovers some of his value with a 2019 that is better than 2018 but that doesn't portend a return to elite status, limiting his dynasty value to win-now teams that can benefit from 2-3 years of a solid floor.

 

[voiceofunreason]

Brevity is a skill.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

I'll take the under 70, and less than 7 rushing TDs. the more you look at it he is/was a one-hit wonder. His career avg per rush is 4.1, and 56 yards rush/gm, with 37.7 yards/gm rec on 3.5 recs/gm.clearly his one 'good' year is the outlier, the rest of his career is  less than average.

add to this mixture a first year HC bringing a crazy scheme to the NFL with a rookie QB and an NFL-worst o-line, and the recipe is there for total futility.

he'll be overdrafted, and then will be on everyone's waiver wire by week 4. 

I'll take the under every time with his production, he's a lesser JAG

Man, I want to play in the leagues you play in. DJ was in possibly the worst case scenario last year and still had a respectable finish. ARZ had 24 offensive touchdowns last year and DJ still had 10. Outside of injury, I can't see how he doesn't improve. It doesn't matter how bad this new offense is, it really can't be worse than last year.

 

[DAG]

Brevity is a skill.

Yeah that’s a massive wall of text I created. Guess I’m just really excited about DJ’s route tree. 

 

[voiceofunreason]

I'll take the under 70, and less than 7 rushing TDs. the more you look at it he is/was a one-hit wonder. His career avg per rush is 4.1, and 56 yards rush/gm, with 37.7 yards/gm rec on 3.5 recs/gm.clearly his one 'good' year is the outlier, the rest of his career is  less than average.

add to this mixture a first year HC bringing a crazy scheme to the NFL with a rookie QB and an NFL-worst o-line, and the recipe is there for total futility.

he'll be overdrafted, and then will be on everyone's waiver wire by week 4. 

I'll take the under every time with his production, he's a lesser JAG

I never thought a lot of him as a runner. He’s a very good receiver though and he’s going to play with a running qb that we haven’t seen the likes of since Vick. There will be huge holes to run through. If he stays healthy I'm expecting a top 5 finish.

And if we’ve learned anything about crazy schemes, they usually work for a year or 2 before defenses adjust.

 

[Milkman]

Barring injury I got DJ putting up

290-1300-8 

79-860-4

360+ point season in ppr

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Projected stats for Cardinals offensive players in 2019  

By: Robert Ricks | August 5, 2019 7:31 am ET

David Johnson

2018 stats: 940 rushing yards, 3.6 YPC(yards per carry), 7 rushing TDs, 50 receptions, 446 receiving yards, 3 receiving TDs

2019 projections:

• 1,221 rushing yards
  
• 9 TDs
  
• 4.6 YPC 
  
• 701 receiving yards
  
•  6 receiving TDs
  
• 71 receptions
  

A breakout running back in 2016 before a season-ending injury in 2017, David Johnson is definitely poised for a huge bounce-back season. The projections see him as returning to his status as a star asset in the passing game.

 

[Milkman]

I'd take the under in those TD projections and the over on the projected yards and receptions. 

 

[rockaction]

I honestly think those are pretty optimistic projections for a guy coming off of two years totaling 1450 or so yards. Yes, one year lost to injury. 

And I'm a big David Johnson fan, too, and think he'll have a really nice year if he stays healthy.  

 

[Bracie Smathers]

1,700+ yards with 15 combined TDs seems unreal but if you look at last year's stats he had over 1,300 yards with 10 TDs in a terrible offense without Kyler.

The projection does seem high but I do expect a bump over last year's stats which weren't bad considering.

 

[rockaction]

1,700+ yards with 15 combined TDs seems unreal but if you look at last year's stats he had over 1,300 yards with 10 TDs in a terrible offense without Kyler.

The projection does seem high but I do expect a bump over last year's stats which weren't bad considering.

You know, 1,700 yards doesn't seem like that much of a stretch in Air Raid, but fifteen TDs seems like about at least three or so too many. 

I think the Milkman sort of nailed it with his thoughts, actually, and was going to quote him, but even a freak injury gives me a bit of pause, rationality about that thought aside.  

eta* I misread the 1,920 yard projection as 1,700 for some reason. I retract my part about the Milkman. Sorry, bro! I think somewhere around 1,700 total with ten TDs is about my prediction.  

 

[SayWhat?]

I'd take the under in those TD projections and the over on the projected yards and receptions. 

Over 1,922 total yards?  Yeah, I think that’s pretty optimistic.  Wouldn’t completely surprise me, but I’d pretty easily take the under on that one.

 

[rockaction]

Over 1,922 total yards?  Yeah, I think that’s pretty optimistic.  Wouldn’t completely surprise me, but I’d pretty easily take the under on that one.

Yeah, I actually misread his projection as 1,700 for some reason. I'll also take the under, thanks.  

 

[Milkman]

Over 1,922 total yards?  Yeah, I think that’s pretty optimistic.  Wouldn’t completely surprise me, but I’d pretty easily take the under on that one.

Oh yeah. That offense is going to be wide open and DJ is the best RB in the league talent wise. Those TD totals are pretty optimistic with Kyler stealing gl carries though.......

 

[Milkman]

You know, 1,700 yards doesn't seem like that much of a stretch in Air Raid, but fifteen TDs seems like about at least three or so too many. 

I think the Milkman sort of nailed it with his thoughts, actually, and was going to quote him, but even a freak injury gives me a bit of pause, rationality about that thought aside.  

eta* I misread the 1,920 yard projection as 1,700 for some reason. I retract my part about the Milkman. Sorry, bro! I think somewhere around 1,700 total with ten TDs is about my prediction.  

I'm super high on Arizona's offense this year. That's why. If DJ stays healthy he's going over 2k again. 

 

[travdogg]

Oh yeah. That offense is going to be wide open and DJ is the best RB in the league talent wise. Those TD totals are pretty optimistic with Kyler stealing gl carries though.......

I'm not sure I could disagree with that statement more. Like, I'm not even sure how one could come to that conclusion. I could maybe agree with best pass catching RB in the league, but Johnson isn't even top-15 as a runner.

I do agree a top-5 season is on the table, but even that is helped by 2 other candidates not currently being in camp.

 

[steelers1080]

DJ #2 overall RB in fantasy this year. That's my hot take for 2019-2020. 

His ceiling and floor are incredibly wide since no one knows how this offense will fare this year. I think his scoring opportunities go way up, and maybe he won't be bashed into the middle of the line over, and over, and over, and over... thanks Mike McCoy. He'll catch lots of passes, run in more TDs, and return great draft value. 

 

[Milkman]

I'm not sure I could disagree with that statement more. Like, I'm not even sure how one could come to that conclusion. I could maybe agree with best pass catching RB in the league, but Johnson isn't even top-15 as a runner.

I do agree a top-5 season is on the table, but even that is helped by 2 other candidates not currently being in camp.

That's what makes this game so fun. Good luck to you. 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I'm not sure I could disagree with that statement more. Like, I'm not even sure how one could come to that conclusion. I could maybe agree with best pass catching RB in the league, but Johnson isn't even top-15 as a runner.

I do agree a top-5 season is on the table, but even that is helped by 2 other candidates not currently being in camp.

Um...what?

 

[travdogg]

Um...what?

He has mediocre vision, and is only average at breaking tackles. If he gets the ball in space, he's super dangerous in the open field, which is part of why he's an elite pass catcher, but his vision and power aren't anywhere near good enough to make him the best RB in the NFL. 

He's never topped 80 in PFF's grading, and his career YPC is only 4.1, despite being in a top offense for most of his career. Frankly, I think he's getting way too much of a pass for last year too, but I fully acknowledge that his workload is in zero danger, and the offense overall should be much better. But yeah, I think he's been a much better fantasy RB, than NFL RB to date. That will likely continue this year, and I fully expect top-10 numbers, with top-5 upside, especially if Gordon and Elliott don't show.

Honestly, I think he's a sneaky candidate to be a cap(or trade) casualty next off season, unless he improves his rushing. 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Let's say all that's true.

There's FIFTEEN guys better than him at all that?

 

[Milkman]

PFF grades are overrated. Most people don't know how they get those grades and just go with them. It's turning into a cult/religion with more faith than facts. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He's never topped 80 in PFF's grading, and his career YPC is only 4.1, despite being in a top offense for most of his career. 

Talk about spin. Top offense for most of his career? He’s been in the league for four seasons, missed one full season and last season played in a disaster of an offense. He’s also scored an outrageous number of TDs in his short career which can...well affect ypc since many of those are short runs.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

PFF grades are overrated. Most people don't know how they get those grades and just go with them. It's turning into a cult/religion with more faith than facts. 

Yeah they’re wonky as hell. I remember seeing a list of their elusiveness rankings and it was just silly.

I get that analytics is the future of sports on many levels but I just don’t think it works as well for football as it does for basketball and most certainly baseball. There are just so many moving parts on every NFL play. Every run comes down to not only the RBs abilities but to blocking, schemes, play calling and what the defense does. Formulas don’t tell a full story. It’s obviously not useless but it’s one of many tools.

 

[Milkman]

Yeah their wonky as hell. I remember seeing a list of their elusiveness rankings and it was just silly.

I get that analytics is the future of sports on many levels but I just don’t think it works as well for football as it doesn’t for basketball and most certainly baseball. There are just so many moving parts on every NFL play. Every run comes down to not only the RBs abilities but to blocking, schemes, play calling and what the defense does. Formulas don’t tell a full story. It’s obviously not useless but it’s one of many tools.

Yeah..........I could be wrong but I vaguely remember when Aaron Rodgers had one of his best seasons he graded out on PFF as the 15th best QB in the league or something silly like that. 

PFF is turning into a cult that people believe in but they can't explain why. 

 

[travdogg]

Talk about spin. Top offense for most of his career? He’s been in the league for four seasons, missed one full season and last season played in a disaster of an offense. He’s also scored an outrageous number of TDs in his short career which can...well affect ypc since many of those are short runs.

Throwing out 2017, which is only fair. He's played 3 seasons, and was on a top offense in 2 of them. Last year is the only season he wasn't. I don't buy the TD argument, it hasn't hurt the YPC of several other high scoring RB's, Todd Gurley for instance. 

Let's say all that's true.

There's FIFTEEN guys better than him at all that?

Taking out receiving altogether, which I fully admit is Johnson's best attribute, and he's a top-3(Kamara, McCaffrey) if not the #1 RB at, I think the following guys are all equal or better pure runner than Johnson:

McCaffrey, Mixon, Chubb, Hunt, Elliott, A.Jones(if only he stayed healthy) Gordon, Gurley, Cook(stay healthy please) Kamara, Barkley, Bell, Carson, Henry. That is 14 guys, now, I'm not saying they are all better overall RB's than Johnson, as Johnson obviously surpasses many of them due to his passing game ability, but I think they are all at least as good or better pure runners. 

I'm not going to discourage anyone from drafting Johnson this year, he's my RB6(7 if Gordon gets a new deal) so I'm not saying he sucks by any means.

Yeah..........I could be wrong but I vaguely remember when Aaron Rodgers had one of his best seasons he graded out on PFF as the 15th best QB in the league or something silly like that. 

PFF is turning into a cult that people believe in but they can't explain why. 

The only season Rodgers has where he wasn't a top-10 QB in PFF ranks was 2015, which makes sense as he had a career worst comp%(25th), YPA(worst of any 16 game starter), and passer rating(15th)

There isn't much case he was a top QB that year by any metric, other than he's Aaron Rodgers. Didn't help that was they year Jordy blew out his ACL in preseason, but regardless, Rodgers wasn't anything special that year. 

I actually think PFF, and Football Outsiders, are very underrated tools. The ratings make sense, its just the overall football media(and often teams themselves) are a little slow/stubborn to come around to analytics. Its about 20 years behind Baseball in that regard, and 10 years behind Basketball and Hockey. That may be because football has more happening on each play, and more guys to watch, but its not hard to tell intent, and whether a player succeeded at his job most plays. PFF's  system is based on per play success rate, and assigning a number value of -2 to +2 based on each play.

If I had any complaint about PFF's grading, its that it undervalues the threat of something. Like a guy like D-Jax keeping a safety deep, or a guy like Lamar Jackson occupying a box defender, making it much easier for RB's. But that is pretty small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Throwing out 2017, which is only fair. He's played 3 seasons, and was on a top offense in 2 of them. Last year is the only season he wasn't. I don't buy the TD argument, it hasn't hurt the YPC of several other high scoring RB's, Todd Gurley for instance. 

When he was on the “top offense” he rushed for 4.6 ypc and 4.2 ypc, respectively. In 2018 he rushed for 3.6 ypc behind a horrendous o-line with a terrible QB. So again your “only 4.1 ypc despite playing for a top offense for most of his career” was terrible spin.

And maybe, just maybe Arizona was a top offense because of David Johnson. In 2016, he rushed for 1,240 yards with 16 TDs and caught 80 balls for 879 yards and another 4 TDs. I’d say he was a pretty big part of that offense.

 

[matuski]

When he was on the “top offense” he rushed for 4.6 ypc and 4.2 ypc, respectively. In 2018 he rushed for 3.6 ypc behind a horrendous o-line with a terrible QB. So again your “only 4.1 ypc despite playing for a top offense for most of his career” was terrible spin.

And maybe, just maybe Arizona was a top offense because of David Johnson. He rushed for 1,240 yards with 16 TDs and caught 80 balls for 879 yards and another 4 TDs. I’d say he was a pretty big part of that offense.

Have they improved said o-line?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Have they improved said o-line?

Apparently they had a lot of injuries last season and were playing all backups. They will still not have a great line but they’re healthy and will be better.

 

[Milkman]

Have they improved said o-line?

Yes just with getting starters back they have. Plus having a running QB helps so much. 

 

[Milkman]

Guys he was RB9 running behind the worst OL maybe ever with the worst OC maybe ever. Barring injury that's his floor. His ceiling with his skill set, Kyler Murray, Kingsbury, and their possible accelerated pace is yards from scrimmage record holder. 

 

[pbandy1]

Have they improved said o-line?

on paper yes. But Kingsbury's offense can take a lot of the strain off the offensive line. Kugler was a really good hire as offensive line coach too.

 

[Elevencents]

Top offense most of his career...lol. He WAS the offense. And don’t think I’ve heard of 2:1 being referred to as “most”. 

 

[DAG]

There’s clearly a lot to like about DJ’s situation this year compared to last year’s. As @Milkman suggests he pulled off a serviceable season in a Fisher-esque purgatory.

Let’s throw out the season he lost to injury and last season though; you have his two best seasons, where he does deserve credit for carrying the offense, under Arians. As I argued up thread his receiving usage under Arians was historically unique — both in terms of average depth of target and routes run out of the slot and out wide.

I think he gets higher quality targets under Kingsbury and if they run him out of the shotgun like they’re suggesting that suits his running talents better. But there’s a lot we don’t know. They have a good overall staff I think and I like Murray a lot. But I’m really surprised at the all or nothing nature of the predictions. They’ll be breaking in a new HC who had a losing record in the Big 12, a rookie QB, a set of WRs that other than Fitz are rookies and 2nd year guys, and an o line that didn’t play together much last year. I see another top 10 finish and a bump over last year’s numbers but not yardage records or season-altering production. I also see a pretty solid floor. 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

@travdogg Thanks for "showing your work".

I disagree with it but it is thought out.