Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (6 Viewers)

[Elevencents]

How far apart are Mixon and McCaffrey in PPR? 

I think it's pretty close... Maybe McCaffrey right now but I like Mixon ceiling a bit more. 

CMC >>> Mixon. 

Yes, 3.  Would be 5 if Cam wasn’t a vulturing ####### 

 

[Elevencents]

Well that would be great if you could get Golladay or Godwin for the same price as Boyd, but you can't.  I don't think a random 1st even sniffs Golladay at this point.

It's actually kind of funny (though I am victim to the trap as much as anyone else as I vastly prefer those guys to Boyd) but neither of those guys are out producing Boyd, they both have worse draft pedigree than Boyd, and neither (especially Godwin) really has a track on their team's WR1 job in the immediate future.

Golladay is actually older than Boyd to boot.

Dalton is playing above his level. I think that’s a major component. Excited to see Jameis and Godwin. 

Never said Godwin/Golladay were equal in value to Boyd, just comparison sake. 

 

[kittenmittens]

CMC >>> Mixon. 

Yes, 3.  Would be 5 if Cam wasn’t a vulturing ####### 

How much is a single > worth in your system? 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

How much is a single > worth in your system? 

42.

 

[Elevencents]

42.

How much is a single > worth in your system? 

This was easy! 11 of course  

 

[abricru]

I've got a pretty good team 12-team ppr dynasty 28 man roster, but good ole Matt Forte is gone, J. Mckinnon, and Jay Ajayi on IR and I just have no stud RBs.  Aaron Jones, Alex Collins, Dion Lewis, and a couple of other scrubs. Derrick Henry was the guy I was hoping would eventually be my #!, but I'm afraid he's going to end up like Jonathan Stewart and never get a chance to be the guy. Am I giving up hope too soon?  Should I be trying to trade him?  I don't think I'd get much for him at this point.  Thoughts?

 

[Elevencents]

I've got a pretty good team 12-team ppr dynasty 28 man roster, but good ole Matt Forte is gone, J. Mckinnon, and Jay Ajayi on IR and I just have no stud RBs.  Aaron Jones, Alex Collins, Dion Lewis, and a couple of other scrubs. Derrick Henry was the guy I was hoping would eventually be my #!, but I'm afraid he's going to end up like Jonathan Stewart and never get a chance to be the guy. Am I giving up hope too soon?  Should I be trying to trade him?  I don't think I'd get much for him at this point.  Thoughts?

Pointless to trade him. He’s a hold and pray to God he gets out of Tennessee. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Boyd was briefly discussed here. Basically, Dan Hindery and Matt Waldman are in the "sell high" camp.

 

[Concept Coop]

I've got a pretty good team 12-team ppr dynasty 28 man roster, but good ole Matt Forte is gone, J. Mckinnon, and Jay Ajayi on IR and I just have no stud RBs.  Aaron Jones, Alex Collins, Dion Lewis, and a couple of other scrubs. Derrick Henry was the guy I was hoping would eventually be my #!, but I'm afraid he's going to end up like Jonathan Stewart and never get a chance to be the guy. Am I giving up hope too soon?  Should I be trying to trade him?  I don't think I'd get much for him at this point.  Thoughts?

It’s always worth shopping him around. I’d be stoked to get a late 1st for him, personally, and wouldn’t be shocked if you could do that. I think he still has some believers.

 

[joey]

How are people feeling about Guice right now?  Obviously out for the year, but as a compete team now, what would be the minimum to accept in order to give him up.  

as a point of reference...

12 team, non-ppr, Keep only 13.

I have a stacked team and won it all last year (look at me!) and I drafted Guice at 1.9.

A rebuilding team offered me his 1st (he's currently in 11th place) and a late 3rd for Guice and Coutee.

I passed on the offer thinking that Guice would've been a 1.2 this year, in a "great" situation, so that's less of a question mark than next year's rookie in the 1.2-1.4 range. And I like Coutee more than a 3rd round rookie pick at this point.

That was my value assessment of Guice at least.

 

[Steelers4Life]

Anyone move Hunter Henry recently?

Wondering what I might expect to pay with him to get someone like Evan Engram for the short term gains.

 

[Zyphros]

as a point of reference...

12 team, non-ppr, Keep only 13.

I have a stacked team and won it all last year (look at me!) and I drafted Guice at 1.9.

A rebuilding team offered me his 1st (he's currently in 11th place) and a late 3rd for Guice and Coutee.

I passed on the offer thinking that Guice would've been a 1.2 this year, in a "great" situation, so that's less of a question mark than next year's rookie in the 1.2-1.4 range. And I like Coutee more than a 3rd round rookie pick at this point.

That was my value assessment of Guice at least.

I guess if you're already strong everywhere that makes sense.  I'm trying to buy him off a team mostly for a TE (FFPC so 1.5ppr for TE's), since he's starting Niles freaking Paul.  And I haven't had any luck.  Plus he keeps countering with these stupid insane offers that have no business in my inbox lol.  Appreciate the data point.  

 

[FF Ninja]

Golladay was mentioned here. I'm not the only one who saw the coverage thing:

Simpkins: I like Kenny Golladay, but I feel his perceived value will outweigh his actual value over time in dynasty formats. If I can get a first plus a player I like out of Golladay, I’m selling high. I’ll buy in redraft formats because I feel he’s drawing the worst of the opposing team’s coverage options and will continue his success through this year. It’s when he’s forced to be the No.2 or No.1 option in future years that I’m not sure Golladay will produce at his current clip.

But for the record most of them really liked him.

 

[NeverEnough]

Any trades for Tyler Boyd go down lately?

 

[Pwingles]

ppr scoring

Shady or DT?

 

[FF Ninja]

ppr scoring

Shady or DT?

That's a tough call. Two declining assets. WRs tend to age better than RBs, so I guess I'd lean to the DT side.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Golladay was mentioned here. I'm not the only one who saw the coverage thing:

But for the record most of them really liked him.

It says "because I feel" - that's not very scientific. I doubt it's accurate.

 

[FF Ninja]

It says "because I feel" - that's not very scientific. I doubt it's accurate.

While you are correct that it isn't phrased scientifically, his opinion aligns with mine so I don't doubt its accuracy. ?

That being said, if it is inaccurate then that would imply he's facing the toughest coverage, which I find highly unlikely. But definitively proving either side would require (1) all-22 footage, (2) a lot of time, (3) a well-versed knowledge of defensive scheming. I am 0-for-3. 

 

[Concept Coop]

It says "because I feel" - that's not very scientific. I doubt it's accurate.

Me too. Most corners stay to one side; Tate is covered by the slot corner, who could be the best or worst DB on the field; I highly doubt teams are doubling or shadowing Jones very often. 

 

[Aznflyer14]

That's a tough call. Two declining assets. WRs tend to age better than RBs, so I guess I'd lean to the DT side.

Agreed... For whatever reason, Keenum's performance has been shoddy (could be largely attributed to Broncos' poor OL). 

 

[Concept Coop]

While you are correct that it isn't phrased scientifically, his opinion aligns with mine so I don't doubt its accuracy. ?

That being said, if it is inaccurate then that would imply he's facing the toughest coverage, which I find highly unlikely. But definitively proving either side would require (1) all-22 footage, (2) a lot of time, (3) a well-versed knowledge of defensive scheming. I am 0-for-3. 

I doubt it makes a material difference either way. Teams aren’t scared enough of Marvin Jones to leave openings elsewhere to take him out of the game. I doubt they’re shadowing him, and even if they are, only a few CBs are good enough to really impact targets.  

 

[heckmanm]

Anyone move Hunter Henry recently?

Wondering what I might expect to pay with him to get someone like Evan Engram for the short term gains.

I just traded for him in a contract league.  (Not quite dynasty, I know)

Gave: Lindsay, MVS, Cam Meredith

Got: Gore (ROS only), D Westbrook, and Henry

 

[FF Ninja]

I doubt it makes a material difference either way. Teams aren’t scared enough of Marvin Jones to leave openings elsewhere to take him out of the game. I doubt they’re shadowing him, and even if they are, only a few CBs are good enough to really impact targets.  

I think that's more of a fantasy football take than real football. Marvin excelled last year:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000920662/article/tyreek-hill-marvin-jones-among-best-deepthreat-wrs-of-2017
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000915001/article/stefon-diggs-marvin-jones-among-top-10-tightwindow-receivers

He led the league in air yards per target while putting up 18.0 yards per reception and 9 TDs on a mere 107 targets. 

So while he may not get the volume to appease PPR-happy fantasy footballers, he makes the big plays that scare opposing DCs. Taking away Marvin's chunk plays is part of the "bend but don't break" defensive mentality. As for Tate, he consistently leads the NFL in yards after the catch and yards after contact. So while he's not getting his chunks of yardage the same way as Marvin, he's also a scary player for defensive coordinators. 

 

[Concept Coop]

The Bell and DJ owners in my leagues are still expecting to get 90+% of their preseason value in trade. A few months ago they each seemed to promise 2-4 years of high end RB1 production. Not only will they not being offering that this season, they'e not the safest bet to offer it next season, either. Arizona has a ways to go and doesn't target DJ enough; who knows where Bell ends up, but we're seeing that the PIT offense inflated his production. 

I guess I say all of that to say this: If you're sitting on DJ or Bell and can get even 80% of their preseason value, you should do it. Rankings and trade calculators are way off, still. If your league-mates rely on them , they're going to be willing to overpay for these guys. The top 4 backs are likely completely off the table, but you can  potentially add to them for Mixon or CMC. Maybe get a part in addition to Cook, Fournette, Gordon or Hunt. Or move them for a top WR like Hill or Thomas, if you can.

 

[Milkman]

I wouldn't trade Tyreek Hill for anybody in FF. He's not done showing what he can do. Mahomes just barely missed him for a 4th TD last week.......

 

[Concept Coop]

I wouldn't trade Tyreek Hill for anybody in FF. He's not done showing what he can do. Mahomes just barely missed him for a 4th TD last week.......

The best RB in football is only 21 years old. I'd need a lot to downgrade from that to Hill, personally. 

 

[Milkman]

The best RB in football is only 21 years old. I'd need a lot to downgrade from that to Hill, personally. 

And Hill still has twice as many elite years left than that RB. 

 

[Concept Coop]

And Hill still has twice as many elite years left than that RB. 

Projecting 5 years for Barkley feels pretty conservative. I'd bet a lot of money that Tyreek Hill isn't elite at 34.

Don't get me wrong, I like Hill a lot. But I don't know how you say no to Barkley right now. He's outscoring Hill by a good margin and is playing in an awful offense with an awful line. He's going to provide a lot more VBD in his 5 years than Hill will in 7 or 8. 

 

[Milkman]

Barkley's situation is bad for the team but good for his FF prospects too. That should change and his usage will change with it when they get a QB that does more than just check it down.  He's def a great RB but there's a couple that I would rate higher on a pure talent level. 

 

[mozzy84]

I've got a pretty good team 12-team ppr dynasty 28 man roster, but good ole Matt Forte is gone, J. Mckinnon, and Jay Ajayi on IR and I just have no stud RBs.  Aaron Jones, Alex Collins, Dion Lewis, and a couple of other scrubs. Derrick Henry was the guy I was hoping would eventually be my #!, but I'm afraid he's going to end up like Jonathan Stewart and never get a chance to be the guy. Am I giving up hope too soon?  Should I be trying to trade him?  I don't think I'd get much for him at this point.  Thoughts?

I traded Jimmy Graham for henry two weeks ago to  a TE starved team (I am assuming they think they have a shot to win this year). exact same league specs as you.   I don't need Henry this year at the moment, but he seemed like a good buy low.... I didn't think they would take it when I offered it.  

Buyers market here.

 

[Flying Elvis]

Anyone move Hunter Henry recently?

Wondering what I might expect to pay with him to get someone like Evan Engram for the short term gains.

Can't imaging many are moving him, at this point. I acquired him late last year and wouldn't expect anything but low-value offers, which I wouldn't entertain. I was cruising towards a top 3 pick and the trade partner was buying playoff value. Not sure the trade value helps from November 2017 but...

Thompson, Chris WAS RB; Henry, Hunter LAC TE

for

Graham, Jimmy SEA TE

Fri Nov 24 9:57:29 p.m. ET 2017

Thompson was on IR at the time, as well. 

EDIT: what are the odds simultaneous posts with Graham/Henry trades. lol

 

[mozzy84]

Projecting 5 years for Barkley feels pretty conservative. I'd bet a lot of money that Tyreek Hill isn't elite at 34.

Don't get me wrong, I like Hill a lot. But I don't know how you say no to Barkley right now. He's outscoring Hill by a good margin and is playing in an awful offense with an awful line. He's going to provide a lot more VBD in his 5 years than Hill will in 7 or 8. 

agreed, hill is not viewed as the #1 fantasy asset.

 

[Concept Coop]

Barkley's situation is bad for the team but good for his FF prospects too. That should change and his usage will change with it when they get a QB that does more than just check it down.  He's def a great RB but there's a couple that I would rate higher on a pure talent level. 

I think you can certainly make that argument in PPR leagues. Good news, then, as the Giants should be bad for a few years. I'd still prefer to see what he could do in a quality offense, myself. 

 

[Milkman]

Projecting 5 years for Barkley feels pretty conservative. I'd bet a lot of money that Tyreek Hill isn't elite at 34.

Don't get me wrong, I like Hill a lot. But I don't know how you say no to Barkley right now. He's outscoring Hill by a good margin and is playing in an awful offense with an awful line. He's going to provide a lot more VBD in his 5 years than Hill will in 7 or 8. 

This rookie season is most likely Barkley's best season. 5 elite years would def be on the high side. Lots of RB's break down or Situations change. DJ just put up maybe the best RB season in FF a couple years ago and now he's a RB2. Tyreek/Mahomes isn't going anywhere. 

I'll pass.

 

[Steelers4Life]

Can't imaging many are moving him, at this point. I acquired him late last year and wouldn't expect anything but low-value offers, which I wouldn't entertain. I was cruising towards a top 3 pick and the trade partner was buying playoff value. Not sure the trade value helps from November 2017 but...

Thompson, Chris WAS RB;Henry, Hunter LAC TE

for

Graham, Jimmy SEA TE

Fri Nov 24 9:57:29 p.m. ET 2017

Makes sense.

I'm in a 12 teamer with a TE premium where I have both Eric Ebron and OJ Howard already with Hunter Henry on IR.  I'm a middle of the pack team right now and I was offered Evan Engram and Shady McCoy for Hunter Henry and my 2nd rounder.  I declined mostly because I don't trust the GIants offense and I don't need Shady at all.

Just wondering what the "right" kind of value for him is at this point.

 

[Milkman]

agreed, hill is not viewed as the #1 fantasy asset.

He will be if he catches 18-20 TD passes this year......

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This rookie season is most likely Barkley's best season. 5 elite years would def be on the high side. Lots of RB's break down or Situations change. DJ just put up maybe the best RB season in FF a couple years ago and now he's a RB2. Tyreek/Mahomes isn't going anywhere. 

I'll pass.

That works both ways though.  Mahomes isn't going to throw for 5000/53 every year, which is his pace this year.  This probably represents one of the best stretches of his career.  He's having the best 1st year starter season since....RG3.

 

[Milkman]

Makes sense.

I'm in a 12 teamer with a TE premium where I have both Eric Ebron and OJ Howard already with Hunter Henry on IR.  I'm a middle of the pack team right now and I was offered Evan Engram and Shady McCoy for Hunter Henry and my 2nd rounder.  I declined mostly because I don't trust the GIants offense and I don't need Shady at all.

Just wondering what the "right" kind of value for him is at this point.

I would have jumped all over that. Engram is super undervalued right now. 

 

[mozzy84]

He will be if he catches 18-20 TD passes this year......

hey I love hill too, but he did just go 3 straight weeks without a td, scoring 7, 12 and 14 points those three weeks.  He's not going to score 18-20tds this year imo.

 

[Milkman]

That works both ways though.  Mahomes isn't going to throw for 5000/53 every year, which is his pace this year.  This probably represents one of the best stretches of his career.  He's having the best rookie season since....RG3.

That's where your talent evaluation skills come into play. I see Mahomes as a generational talent. If you don't that's ok. Since that's how I see it I can safely predict elite seasons for Tyreek the next 5-6 years and place my bets accordingly. 

I mean you do realize if we were to make all the players in the NFL free agents and have a draft Mahomes would likely be the #1 pick right? Like it's him or Rodgers. 

 

[Steelers4Life]

I would have jumped all over that. Engram is super undervalued right now. 

I don't think he's any better than a healthy Henry, but that's just me. I doubt I'm alone in that, either, although I'm sure some would disagree.

 

[Milkman]

hey I love hill too, but he did just go 3 straight weeks without a td, scoring 7, 12 and 14 points those three weeks.  He's not going to score 18-20tds this year imo.

He's on pace for 16 right now. Let's see what happens. I see a magical set up where the talents of both these players perfectly match up. Sometimes magical seasons happen in these situations. 

 

[Zyphros]

The Bell and DJ owners in my leagues are still expecting to get 90+% of their preseason value in trade. A few months ago they each seemed to promise 2-4 years of high end RB1 production. Not only will they not being offering that this season, they'e not the safest bet to offer it next season, either. Arizona has a ways to go and doesn't target DJ enough; who knows where Bell ends up, but we're seeing that the PIT offense inflated his production. 

I guess I say all of that to say this: If you're sitting on DJ or Bell and can get even 80% of their preseason value, you should do it. Rankings and trade calculators are way off, still. If your league-mates rely on them , they're going to be willing to overpay for these guys. The top 4 backs are likely completely off the table, but you can  potentially add to them for Mixon or CMC. Maybe get a part in addition to Cook, Fournette, Gordon or Hunt. Or move them for a top WR like Hill or Thomas, if you can.

There's a DJ/Bell owner in one of my leagues that is 0-5.  I asked about either one of those RB's and he just won't trade them at all.  He said their value will go up next year when they're on improving offenses (Bell in a new place and DJ with another year with Rosen and improvements all around).  I laughed him off and told him good luck with that.  I was offering Penny or Howard plus a few other pieces as a start and he wasn't even interested in discussing.  

Not to sound conceited or anything, but know your team please people.  Know when you're competitive and rebuilding, that way you can maximize what you're doing for your team.  You're so much better off just being realistic.  

 

[FreeBaGeL]

There's a DJ/Bell owner in one of my leagues that is 0-5.  I asked about either one of those RB's and he just won't trade them at all.  He said their value will go up next year when they're on improving offenses (Bell in a new place and DJ with another year with Rosen and improvements all around).  I laughed him off and told him good luck with that.  I was offering Penny or Howard plus a few other pieces as a start and he wasn't even interested in discussing.  

Not to sound conceited or anything, but know your team please people.  Know when you're competitive and rebuilding, that way you can maximize what you're doing for your team.  You're so much better off just being realistic.  

He's not wrong.

 

[Zyphros]

He's not wrong.

You really think their value will improve with them both being 27 and 1 on a new team that is likely not as good as Pittsburgh?  I don't believe that.  Right now they're probably both fringe top10 dynasty RB's.  I can't imagine them getting up to top5 ever again.  

 

[FreeBaGeL]

You really think their value will improve with them both being 27 and 1 on a new team that is likely not as good as Pittsburgh?  I don't believe that.  Right now they're probably both fringe top10 dynasty RB's.  I can't imagine them getting up to top5 ever again.  

You weren't offering top 5 value (not even top 10) anyway, so why does that matter?

They've both got 2-4 years left.  Plenty of time for his team to contend again.  People have this bizarre notion in fantasy football that rebuilds take 5+ years.  Those are the people that spend their entire FF career "rebuilding".

I've lost count of the number of times a garbage, last place team ended up a major contender or even league champ within 1 year.  No way I would even consider moving either of those guys for a deal that started with Penny or Howard as the main piece.

 

[Zyphros]

You weren't offering top 5 value (not even top 10) anyway, so why does that matter?

They've both got 2-4 years left.  Plenty of time for his team to contend again.  People have this bizarre notion in fantasy football that rebuilds take 5+ years.  Those are the people that spend their entire FF career "rebuilding".

I've lost count of the number of times a garbage, last place team ended up a major contender or even league champ within 1 year.  No way I would even consider moving either of those guys for a deal that started with Penny or Howard as the main piece.

Totally understand he didn't want my offer, but that's not the point.  It's his comments that "they're going to gain value so he's keeping them" is what was shocking to me.  

 

[fruity pebbles]

Totally understand he didn't want my offer, but that's not the point.  It's his comments that "they're going to gain value so he's keeping them" is what was shocking to me.  

Sounds like he thinks there will be a better time to trade them not that he wouldn’t. I’m king of youth movements in dynasty leagues, usually to a fault. I wouldn’t consider moving either for a deal centerpiece of Howard or Penny. Those guys just aren’t worth squat right now.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

I am a DJ and Bell owner....was offered Mixon and ABrown for Bell and Hopkins last week and decided to stay put. Wondering if I was wrong. I am 6-0 thanks to a little luck and Mahomes!

 

[Concept Coop]

I am a DJ and Bell owner....was offered Mixon and ABrown for Bell and Hopkins last week and decided to stay put. Wondering if I was wrong. I am 6-0 thanks to a little luck and Mahomes!

I prefer the Hopkins side as well, personally. I'd certainly counter my Bell for his Mixon, however. I'd be willing to add a bit, even.