Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)

[Zyphros]

Sounds like he thinks there will be a better time to trade them not that he wouldn’t. I’m king of youth movements in dynasty leagues, usually to a fault. I wouldn’t consider moving either for a deal centerpiece of Howard or Penny. Those guys just aren’t worth squat right now.

Again the offer isn't my point, but keep pointing it out please... 

His comments to me that they're going to be more valuable in 10 months, and not even willing to discuss trading those RB's is what I'm pointing out even after starting 0-5.  Maybe he thinks it'll be a quick turnaround which is certainly possible, but that takes a lot of wheeling and dealing from my experience and it almost never works out the way you want it to.  

 

[tangfoot]

Again the offer isn't my point, but keep pointing it out please... 

His comments to me that they're going to be more valuable in 10 months, and not even willing to discuss trading those RB's is what I'm pointing out even after starting 0-5.  Maybe he thinks it'll be a quick turnaround which is certainly possible, but that takes a lot of wheeling and dealing from my experience and it almost never works out the way you want it to.  

You're pretending that performance is both a straight line and entirely predicated on the immediate past.  Both Bell and Johnson are still premium RB assets and to move them for their current perceived value of someone in the tier of ####### Howard and Penny is ludicrous.  Your offer was short by a massive amount, and was a complete insult or attempt to steal from someone who is panicking.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Again the offer isn't my point, but keep pointing it out please... 

His comments to me that they're going to be more valuable in 10 months, and not even willing to discuss trading those RB's is what I'm pointing out even after starting 0-5.  Maybe he thinks it'll be a quick turnaround which is certainly possible, but that takes a lot of wheeling and dealing from my experience and it almost never works out the way you want it to.  

Of course the offer matters. If the offer had centered around Mixon or CMC, you prolly would have gotten a different response. I usually dont bother exploring a trade with a person if the initial offer is way off either. Maybe not, he could be delusional lol.

 

[gabes1919]

Again the offer isn't my point, but keep pointing it out please... 

His comments to me that they're going to be more valuable in 10 months, and not even willing to discuss trading those RB's is what I'm pointing out even after starting 0-5.  Maybe he thinks it'll be a quick turnaround which is certainly possible, but that takes a lot of wheeling and dealing from my experience and it almost never works out the way you want it to.  

Those above me have hammered the point about your offer pretty well so I will respond to the second part, the guy is probably correct that they will have more value in 10 months. Will they have more value than this last off-season, almost assuredly not. Will they have more value than they do at this exact moment? Likely, yes. Those two players have massively lost value as this season has gone on which is why people like yourself are trying to buy low. Barring a tragic injury, this is probably the lowest their value will be prior to the start of next season. The owner doesn’t want to sell low on players who were looked at as cornerstone players just a year ago.

The owner doesn’t lack for awareness of his situation, he is looking past his current record and understands that selling is not in his best interests at a time when the market is #### and he has little reason to try and win

 

[FF Ninja]

He's not wrong.

I think he is.

If Bell had put up another good season with PIT, his value might've remained strong on a new team. But now that people have seen Conner putting up points in that offense, I think trade partners will be wary that Bell's fantasy numbers were more system than ability, perhaps expecting a bit of a Portis from Denver to Washington type of downturn in productivity/touch. However, there are probably a few scenarios in which the hype could still recoup some of his value from a couple months ago. Philly is probably the place that would get the most hype. Indy might be able to generate a little hype, but they are looking so bad. That's about it, but I guess maybe Baltimore if the Lamar Jackson hype increases and Collins isn't re-signed.

DJ's outlook is worse, though. Fantasy football is full of recency bias. If people were expecting 1000+ yards rushing and 70 receptions and they saw 800 yards (at ~3.2 ypc) and 45 receptions in 2018, nobody is going to pay 80% of what he was going for in August 2018. If the owner is waiting for an improved offense, that means he's planning on selling a few weeks into the season when DJ will be about 28 years old. And that's if the offense actually improves early next season. If I was a DJ owner, I'd be trying to sell now on the strength of those 6 TDs in 6 games. Then again, I would've already sold in the offseason. I caught some heat in here when I predicted a struggling Arizona offense would hurt his value, but even then I thought free agency optimism could help a little bit. The fact he signed an extension with Arizona hurts his offseason and 2019 value, IMO.

 

[Tau837]

This rookie season is most likely Barkley's best season

He is 21 years old. You aren't being objective about Barkley here.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

He is 21 years old. You aren't being objective about Barkley here.

Yep.  Imagine saying that Gurley's rookie year was his best ever.  Or LT.  Etc.

 

[Milkman]

He is 21 years old. You aren't being objective about Barkley here.

Maybe but i see Tyreek's situation as a lot more stable. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think he is.

If Bell had put up another good season with PIT, his value might've remained strong on a new team. But now that people have seen Conner putting up points in that offense, I think trade partners will be wary that Bell's fantasy numbers were more system than ability, perhaps expecting a bit of a Portis from Denver to Washington type of downturn in productivity/touch. However, there are probably a few scenarios in which the hype could still recoup some of his value from a couple months ago. Philly is probably the place that would get the most hype. Indy might be able to generate a little hype, but they are looking so bad. That's about it, but I guess maybe Baltimore if the Lamar Jackson hype increases and Collins isn't re-signed.

DJ's outlook is worse, though. Fantasy football is full of recency bias. If people were expecting 1000+ yards rushing and 70 receptions and they saw 800 yards (at ~3.2 ypc) and 45 receptions in 2018, nobody is going to pay 80% of what he was going for in August 2018. If the owner is waiting for an improved offense, that means he's planning on selling a few weeks into the season when DJ will be about 28 years old. And that's if the offense actually improves early next season. If I was a DJ owner, I'd be trying to sell now on the strength of those 6 TDs in 6 games. Then again, I would've already sold in the offseason. I caught some heat in here when I predicted a struggling Arizona offense would hurt his value, but even then I thought free agency optimism could help a little bit. The fact he signed an extension with Arizona hurts his offseason and 2019 value, IMO.

There's market value and actual value though - all it would take is a great landing spot and/or great start for Bell's market value to go up and for the Arizona offense to start to click under Rosen as the season wears on for DJ's market value to go up - he's actually produced more and more each week.

ETA: I'm strictly talking about a rise from their current market value - I wouldn't expect their value to go back to what it was this past offseason.

 

[FF Ninja]

There's market value and actual value though - all it would take is a great landing spot and/or great start for Bell's market value to go up and for the Arizona offense to start to click under Rosen as the season wears on for DJ's market value to go up - he's actually produced more and more each week.

ETA: I'm strictly talking about a rise from their current market value - I wouldn't expect their value to go back to what it was this past offseason.

Yeah, I didn't mean to imply there are zero scenarios in which they could see a bump from their current values. I just think if we were to list off all the realistic scenarios that there would be a hell of a lot more that resulted in further decreases than scenarios that saw their value increasing.

I'm basically agreeing with Zyphros that the guy is crazy to be so confident their value will go up. Both players are at that delicate tipping point in age where it takes very little to hurt their market value (sheer time alone will hurt a lot). Basically waiting 11-12 months while hoping for a positive change in scenario seems like a desperate prayer rather than a realistic expectation. If Bell signs with Buffalo or Miami or the Jets his value will be lower than it is now. Wouldn't shock me to see him sign with those crazy buggers in SF and be stuck splitting duties with a healthy McKinnon. DJ... man, he's going to need Rosen to learn quickly. They also need to repair that OL (Bitonti has them ranked 29th right now) and find themselves a couple outside WRs. It feels like that team is in full rebuild mode. I wouldn't want anyone on that offense until 2020.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

If Bell signs with Buffalo or Miami or the Jets his value will be lower than it is now.

I don't believe this - sorry. Right now all you would get is total lowball offers (like Jordan Howard) since he's not playing at all - and may not see significant time this season even if he does come back.

 

[Milkman]

Yep.  Imagine saying that Gurley's rookie year was his best ever.  Or LT.  Etc.

Lol that is not what i said and you know it. If Barkley has a historic rookie season it very well could be his best season ever. It's happen plenty of times before. 

Ill sit on my Tyreek>Barkley island. I'm good with that. I was on Trubisky is really good island a couple weeks ago all by myself. Lol

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't believe this - sorry. Right now all you would get is total lowball offers (like Jordan Howard) since he's not playing at all - and may not see significant time this season even if he does come back.

Well, I thought he was offering Howard+ merely as a start for negotiations. That's really the only point of reference I've got and greatly depending on the "+" it might be fair (Howard is 3 years younger, no suspensions, no missed games, 2020 FA). Have you seen any recent trades? I could be totally wrong on this, but I'd think the talk of him returning would give him some value this year to contenders on top of his remaining dynasty value in the coming years. 

I don't feel like people are valuing him right now like he's about to retire. Everyone expects him to sign somewhere next year and if it is somewhere crappy I think his value drops from where it is now. But you could be right. Maybe his value right now is lower than I perceive. Admittedly, I haven't seen much to give me a feel for it.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Lol that is not what i said and you know it. If Barkley has a historic rookie season it very well could be his best season ever. It's happen plenty of times before. 

Ill sit on my Tyreek>Barkley island. I'm good with that. I was on Trubisky is really good island a couple weeks ago all by myself. Lol

Barkley hasn't had a historic season yet

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Well, I thought he was offering Howard+ merely as a start for negotiations. That's really the only point of reference I've got and greatly depending on the "+" it might be fair (Howard is 3 years younger, no suspensions, no missed games, 2020 FA). Have you seen any recent trades? I could be totally wrong on this, but I'd think the talk of him returning would give him some value this year to contenders on top of his remaining dynasty value in the coming years. 

I have not seen any recent trades since he failed to show up - probably because his owners aren't looking to sell low.

 

[FF Ninja]

I have not seen any recent trades since he failed to show up - probably because his owners aren't looking to sell low.

Haha, touche. Well, I think the truth is that neither of us really have a good grasp on what his value is. Maybe this hold out has hurt more than I think and him signing somewhere crappy will actually mean a bump in value. I just know that waiting for a 26.7 year old RB to turn into a 27.7 year old RB rarely results in an increase in value, but this is a strange situation.

 

[Concept Coop]

There's market value and actual value though - all it would take is a great landing spot and/or great start for Bell's market value to go up and for the Arizona offense to start to click under Rosen as the season wears on for DJ's market value to go up - he's actually produced more and more each week.

ETA: I'm strictly talking about a rise from their current market value - I wouldn't expect their value to go back to what it was this past offseason.

I guess it depends on how we define their current value. I was using rankings and two trade calculator values, when saying they’re overpriced. It’s certainly possible that they don’t have that value in most leagues. 

But according to DTC, to use one, the gap between DJ and Barkley/Kamara/Zeke/Gurley is a late first. If he does in fact have that value, it’s only going down from here, even if he does bounce back.

But again, it’s certainly possible that he doesn’t carry that value in most leagues. Though my league-mates seem to want that in trade.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Well, I thought he was offering Howard+ merely as a start for negotiations. That's really the only point of reference I've got and greatly depending on the "+" it might be fair (Howard is 3 years younger, no suspensions, no missed games, 2020 FA). Have you seen any recent trades? I could be totally wrong on this, but I'd think the talk of him returning would give him some value this year to contenders on top of his remaining dynasty value in the coming years. 

I don't feel like people are valuing him right now like he's about to retire. Everyone expects him to sign somewhere next year and if it is somewhere crappy I think his value drops from where it is now. But you could be right. Maybe his value right now is lower than I perceive. Admittedly, I haven't seen much to give me a feel for it.

There's talk of him returning - but there's also talk that the Steelers will either have him split time with Conner or even worse not play him at all.

I just don't see many scenarios in free agency that are worse than not playing at all. He's still only 26 and even though Pittsburgh is obviously a good system for him his talent level is obvious. Any team that pays him what he's looking for is going to make him a major part of it's offense.

 

[FF Ninja]

There's talk of him returning - but there's also talk that the Steelers will either have him split time with Conner or even worse not play him at all.

I just don't see many scenarios in free agency that are worse than not playing at all. He's still only 26 and even though Pittsburgh is obviously a good system for him his talent level is obvious. Any team that pays him what he's looking for is going to make him a major part of it's offense.

Him signing somewhere and playing should be baked into his value right now, though. I don't think anybody is out there thinking he's going to hold out next season, too.

And this line of thinking is what led to people drafting McCoy in redraft this year. Being the only notable player on an offense doesn't always equate to production. When those TDs dry up, DJ owners will be feeling the same pain as McCoy owners. 

I guess we'll wait and see. I just think the owner Zyphros approached would be wise to at least enter into some negotiations and see what he can get. 

IIRC, you sold Bell for Barkley this offseason. Gotta be feeling pretty good about that!

 

[Tau837]

Maybe but i see Tyreek's situation as a lot more stable. 

Regardless of your reasons, for you to say you would rank Hill over Barkley puts you on an island. It's good that you are comfortable on that island, but it is still an island, and for good reasons.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Him signing somewhere and playing should be baked into his value right now, though. I don't think anybody is out there thinking he's going to hold out next season, too.

And this line of thinking is what led to people drafting McCoy in redraft this year. Being the only notable player on an offense doesn't always equate to production. When those TDs dry up, DJ owners will be feeling the same pain as McCoy owners. 

I guess we'll wait and see. I just think the owner Zyphros approached would be wise to at least enter into some negotiations and see what he can get. 

IIRC, you sold Bell for Barkley this offseason. Gotta be feeling pretty good about that!

Yes - and he obviously he does not feel good about it.

As much as dynasty is a long term game, many owners just don't like forgoing production in the current year, it's why you see guys like Guice traded away for less than the 1.02 it originally cost to get him after he went down.

Sure Bell's future is built into the current price but as that "future" gets closer the excitement level goes up.

Buffalo with McCoy is about as extreme of an example as you can contemplate - and McCoy being 30 with a lot of mileage didn't help matters much either (I wanted no part of him in any league). Sure Bell could sign with Buffalo, but that seems pretty unlikely if he is the one calling the shots. It's a pretty tough place to live and their line is horrendous - sure they could make him an offer he can't refuse but it's a long shot at this point. But I will agree that his value may actually go down if that's where he's playing next year.

The good landing spots far outweigh the bad landing spots imo - but once again I would agree it's hard to find many better than his current team. So his value is surely on the decline overall but it will get a boost once he either actually comes back and is used by the Steelers this year and/or once the offseason hits (even before he actually signs somewhere).

 

[Tau837]

If Barkley has a historic rookie season it very well could be his best season ever. It's happen plenty of times before. 

Really? Please name "plenty" of rookie RBs who had "historic" rookie seasons that turned out to be their best ever.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

I am a DJ and Bell owner....was offered Mixon and ABrown for Bell and Hopkins last week and decided to stay put. Wondering if I was wrong. I am 6-0 thanks to a little luck and Mahomes!

Would you counter that offer with getting Mixon and ABrown for Bell and AJ Green??  Thoughts .. no ppr I also have DJ/Freeman at RB and Hopkins/KAllen/Thielen/ AJ Green at WR .  Also have 1 1st Round Pick and 2 2nd Rounders at my disposal as well.

 

[Concept Coop]

Would you counter that offer with getting Mixon and ABrown for Bell and AJ Green??  Thoughts .. no ppr I also have DJ/Freeman at RB and Hopkins/KAllen/Thielen/ AJ Green at WR .  Also have 1 1st Round Pick and 2 2nd Rounders at my disposal as well.

I would send that counter.

 

[FF Ninja]

Really? Please name "plenty" of rookie RBs who had "historic" rookie seasons that turned out to be their best ever.

Haha, this is a slippery slope because by the nature of "historic" there haven't been that many. If we remove "historic" then Alf would fit this narrative. My initial thought was Edge, but it turns out year 2 was his best year. 

Either way, I'm on the side saying that his rookie season with crappy QB and OL play will not be his best.

I did a search (looked for rookie seasons >1200 rushing yards and then clicked on the players) and a 27 year old Mike Anderson's rookie season was his best season. 
Eric Dickerson's 23 year old rookie season was sort of his best season. 
Doug Martin's 23 year old rookie season was his best season.
Jordan Howard and Kareem Hunt's best seasons were their rookie seasons. 

But I feel safe saying the best is yet to come for Barkley.

 

[Zyphros]

This whole Bell/DJ situation with me started with me asking him if they're available.  He basically said no and that their value will go up and all that, after that and I proceeded to ask even if young RB's were involved for a replacement plus other pieces.  Again he said no.  Just wasn't interested in discussing them at all even before an offer was made.  

Thought it was good info to at least discuss their value a bit and once people finally understood it wasn't about the offer, the thoughts were good, so I appreciate that.  I did talk to him a little more after we stopped the trade discussion and he does think his team is due for a quick turn around when his team is healthy and playing.  Plus he has 2 1sts and 2 2nds next year so he's in a prety good position to accomplish that already.  So his reasoning isn't unjustified, I just feel if I were in that spot with that roster, I'd want to move one or both of them for good return. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Yes - and he obviously he does not feel good about it.

As much as dynasty is a long term game, many owners just don't like forgoing production in the current year, it's why you see guys like Guice traded away for less than the 1.02 it originally cost to get him after he went down.

Sure Bell's future is built into the current price but as that "future" gets closer the excitement level goes up.

Buffalo with McCoy is about as extreme of an example as you can contemplate - and McCoy being 30 with a lot of mileage didn't help matters much either (I wanted no part of him in any league). Sure Bell could sign with Buffalo, but that seems pretty unlikely if he is the one calling the shots. It's a pretty tough place to live and their line is horrendous - sure they could make him an offer he can't refuse but it's a long shot at this point. But I will agree that his value may actually go down if that's where he's playing next year.

The good landing spots far outweigh the bad landing spots imo - but once again I would agree it's hard to find many better than his current team. So his value is surely on the decline overall but it will get a boost once he either actually comes back and is used by the Steelers this year and/or once the offseason hits (even before he actually signs somewhere).

You are probably right about the bolded, but I really don't think anyone interested in buying him this year is expecting zero 2018 ROI.

Bell doesn't strike me as a guy who is going to take a pay cut to play somewhere good. If Buffalo or SF offers him the most money, he's almost certainly going to take it, right?

FWIW: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

Indy will have money, but they had money this year and didn't pursue anyone. I think Colts, Jets, Bills, Texans, and 49ers are the most likely spots. I don't think it would be a good team move for most of them, but that rarely makes a difference. I never understood the Jets trade rumor for him a few weeks ago.

This will be an interesting thing to watch play out. I'm glad to be watching from the sidelines, but hopefully he doesn't sign somewhere that I've got a RB already in place...

 

[Tau837]

Haha, this is a slippery slope because by the nature of "historic" there haven't been that many. If we remove "historic" then Alf would fit this narrative. My initial thought was Edge, but it turns out year 2 was his best year. 

Either way, I'm on the side saying that his rookie season with crappy QB and OL play will not be his best.

I did a search (looked for rookie seasons >1200 rushing yards and then clicked on the players) and a 27 year old Mike Anderson's rookie season was his best season. 
Eric Dickerson's 23 year old rookie season was sort of his best season. 
Doug Martin's 23 year old rookie season was his best season.
Jordan Howard and Kareem Hunt's best seasons were their rookie seasons. 

But I feel safe saying the best is yet to come for Barkley.

I know you are agreeing with my point, so not really arguing with you, just commenting.

The only player you named here with talent comparable to Barkley is Dickerson, so I dismiss the rest as apples to oranges.

Dickerson is arguable, but, even if his rookie season was his best, he was still 1st team All Pro in 4 of his next 5 seasons, and had more than 2000 YFS and 11+ TDs in 3 of those seasons. Now consider that Dickerson was 23 in his rookie season, and Barkley is 21.

Even conceding Dickerson fits @Milkman's criteria, that is 1 RB, not plenty. Whereas we have a much larger sample of elite RBs in NFL history whose rookie seasons were not their best.

And if Barkley's career was to unfold exactly like Dickerson's did, IMO it would clearly be preferable to keep him over Hill going forward.

 

 

[FF Ninja]

I know you are agreeing with my point, so not really arguing with you, just commenting.

The only player you named here with talent comparable to Barkley is Dickerson, so I dismiss the rest as apples to oranges.

Dickerson is arguable, but, even if his rookie season was his best, he was still 1st team All Pro in 4 of his next 5 seasons, and had more than 2000 YFS and 11+ TDs in 3 of those seasons. Now consider that Dickerson was 23 in his rookie season, and Barkley is 21.

Even conceding Dickerson fits @Milkman's criteria, that is 1 RB, not plenty. Whereas we have a much larger sample of elite RBs in NFL history whose rookie seasons were not their best.

And if Barkley's career was to unfold exactly like Dickerson's did, IMO it would clearly be preferable to keep him over Hill going forward.

 

Yeah, I totally agree with you here. I just thought it was an interesting exercise to see if there were any notable names that came up on that list. 

The other talents don't compare and Dickerson's age vs. Barkley's is the reason I listed it. His improvement from 4.6 ypc to 5.6 ypc makes his 2nd season better, IMO, but some would argue the 4 TDs or additional receptions would make up for that... which is true in fantasy, but as a football running back, I'm going to call 5.6 ypc his best season.

 

[Milkman]

Don't forget Zeke as a possibility. Also I'm factoring in Tyreek hasn't peaked yet. He just killed the harder part of his schedule. 

 

[Concept Coop]

It’s crazy how weak the RB group looks compared to what we thought it would be before the season started.

Injuries make Fournette and Cook scary owns. 

Penny and Jones seem to really be disappointing their NFL teams.

Freeman, Chubb, and Kerryon aren’t getting the touches we hoped they would. 

DJ and Bell we’ve discussed.

Freeman went down and Coleman hasn’t set the world on fire.

Drake and Henry flopped. Ajayi and Howard too.

Sure, there are plenty of RB2/3 candidates in PPR formats, but most are situation dependent and hard to trust long-term.

Meanwhile, there are 25 WRs averaging 15+ PPG. Another reason you’re not getting one of the top young backs from me unless you’re sending me one in return.

 

[Tau837]

It’s crazy how weak the RB group looks compared to what we thought it would be before the season started.

Injuries make Fournette and Cook scary owns. 

Penny and Jones seem to really be disappointing their NFL teams.

Freeman, Chubb, and Kerryon aren’t getting the touches we hoped they would. 

DJ and Bell we’ve discussed.

Freeman went down and Coleman hasn’t set the world on fire.

Drake and Henry flopped. Ajayi and Howard too.

Sure, there are plenty of RB2/3 candidates in PPR formats, but most are situation dependent and hard to trust long-term.

Meanwhile, there are 25 WRs averaging 15+ PPG. Another reason you’re not getting one of the top young backs from me unless you’re sending me one in return.

Another rationale for Barkley > Tyreek

 

[EBF]

Drake is RB25 in my PPR leagues, so not that far below his dynasty or redraft ADP. "Flop" seems a bit harsh, although I've been surprised by how much Gase has utilized Gore instead. I thought Gore would get some work, but not this much. I still feel decent rolling out Drake as a RB2 in PPR leagues.

Mixon has taken strides in year two and Conner is having one of those magic seasons that win people titles, though I'm not sold he's an elite dynasty piece.

I wasn't a Michel fan when he was drafted and the early buzz was scary with his injury issues, but his owners have to be pleased with the last month.

As much as I liked Barkley in college and around draft time, he looks even better than expected. #1 dynasty player for me AINEC.

I agree that the RB landscape has taken a hit overall, but there are some good stories too.

 

[Milkman]

Yeah positional scarcity is a big factor. So Tyreek needs to be significantly better than those other great WR for a lot longer than Barkley needs to be significantly better than the other great RB to return more value. I think he will be now that we've got a good long look at Mahomes. Tyreek is the most valuable FF asset in the the league imo. I see him pushing closer to 26 ppg in ppr. Crazy talk I know but we haven't seen skill sets perfectly paired up like this before. He'll be better next year (better than 26 ppg?) and so will Mahomes........

I'll slowly back away from this discussion now and swim out to my island. Thanks for the debate. 

 

[Concept Coop]

Drake is RB25 in my PPR leagues, so not that far below his dynasty or redraft ADP. "Flop" seems a bit harsh, although I've been surprised by how much Gase has utilized Gore instead. I thought Gore would get some work, but not this much. I still feel decent rolling out Drake as a RB2 in PPR leagues.

Mixon has taken strides in year two and Conner is having one of those magic seasons that win people titles, though I'm not sold he's an elite dynasty piece.

I wasn't a Michel fan when he was drafted and the early buzz was scary with his injury issues, but his owners have to be pleased with the last month.

As much as I liked Barkley in college and around draft time, he looks even better than expected. #1 dynasty player for me AINEC.

I agree that the RB landscape has taken a hit overall, but there are some good stories too.

I largely agree. I'm only especially hard on Drake because I was expecting him to run away with the job and put up borderline RB1 numbers. I think it's clear that Miami doesn't think he's the guy they said they did, at least. I still like the tape, but have had to significantly adjust my expectations. 

I think Michel owners are fine with the production, but he hasn't looked like a difference maker to me. That and his knee issues have to be a bigger concern than they were when we drafted him. 

Conner is the biggest unexpected boon to the group, and I also like Lindsay. We'll see if Cohen keeps it up, but he could join the list, too.

Edit: And I hate saying this, as I'm a huge fan and own him in 2 of my 4 leagues, but Zeke appears to have slowed down a bit. He's showing his passing game chops, which is great, but his burst isn't what it was a couple years ago. I'm guessing he's carrying some extra weight. Still a stud, but not the Gurley-level back he was as a rookie. 

 

[tkrull]

I largely agree. I'm only especially hard on Drake because I was expecting him to run away with the job and put up borderline RB1 numbers. I think it's clear that Miami doesn't think he's the guy they said they did, at least. I still like the tape, but have had to significantly adjust my expectations. 

I think Michel owners are fine with the production, but he hasn't looked like a difference maker to me. That and his knee issues have to be a bigger concern than they were when we drafted him. 

Conner is the biggest unexpected boon to the group, and I also like Lindsay. We'll see if Cohen keeps it up, but he could join the list, too.

Edit: And I hate saying this, as I'm a huge fan and own him in 2 of my 4 leagues, but Zeke appears to have slowed down a bit. He's showing his passing game chops, which is great, but his burst isn't what it was a couple years ago. I'm guessing he's carrying some extra weight. Still a stud, but not the Gurley-level back he was as a rookie. 

I wonder if the quality of the o-line impacts the perception of his explosiveness.

 

[FF Ninja]

It’s crazy how weak the RB group looks compared to what we thought it would be before the season started.

Injuries make Fournette and Cook scary owns. 

Penny and Jones seem to really be disappointing their NFL teams.

Freeman, Chubb, and Kerryon aren’t getting the touches we hoped they would. 

DJ and Bell we’ve discussed.

Freeman went down and Coleman hasn’t set the world on fire.

Drake and Henry flopped. Ajayi and Howard too.

Sure, there are plenty of RB2/3 candidates in PPR formats, but most are situation dependent and hard to trust long-term.

Meanwhile, there are 25 WRs averaging 15+ PPG. Another reason you’re not getting one of the top young backs from me unless you’re sending me one in return.

Agree with all of this, but from their limited usage I think all three of these guys have shown the talent is there. People would be nuts to sell them right now or move them down dynasty rankings. 

But I just glanced at DLF's RB rankings and... 
It's a weird landscape out there. Could be a good time to make some trades if you see someone you like way down the list.

 

[Concept Coop]

I wonder if the quality of the o-line impacts the perception of his explosiveness.

My eyes could be failing me, but I'm noticing a difference in the open field. I think the offensive line could be a big driver in him getting to the next level less frequently, but I don't think it would account for him looking slower once he's there. 

 

[domvin]

This whole Bell/DJ situation with me started with me asking him if they're available.  He basically said no and that their value will go up and all that, after that and I proceeded to ask even if young RB's were involved for a replacement plus other pieces.  Again he said no.  Just wasn't interested in discussing them at all even before an offer was made.  

Thought it was good info to at least discuss their value a bit and once people finally understood it wasn't about the offer, the thoughts were good, so I appreciate that.  I did talk to him a little more after we stopped the trade discussion and he does think his team is due for a quick turn around when his team is healthy and playing.  Plus he has 2 1sts and 2 2nds next year so he's in a prety good position to accomplish that already.  So his reasoning isn't unjustified, I just feel if I were in that spot with that roster, I'd want to move one or both of them for good return. 

The fact that he has 2 1sts and 2 2nds gives him more ammo to stay put.

He's 0 and 5, one the firsts could be a top 3 pick.

I don't dismantle my stud dynasty teams just because I have an injury....or in this case a holdout and a rebuilding Arizona team.   I take the 1 year hit, and use the early picks to strengthen my league position.

That owner is taking his 1 year lumps and he knows exactly what he is doing.    Getting a top draft pick and sustaining playoff runs for a 1 year gap

 

[Zyphros]

The fact that he has 2 1sts and 2 2nds gives him more ammo to stay put.

He's 0 and 5, one the firsts could be a top 3 pick.

I don't dismantle my stud dynasty teams just because I have an injury....or in this case a holdout and a rebuilding Arizona team.   I take the 1 year hit, and use the early picks to strengthen my league position.

That owner is taking his 1 year lumps and he knows exactly what he is doing.    Getting a top draft pick and sustaining playoff runs for a 1 year gap

that's what I said...

 

[domvin]

Let me be blunt.   He's punting on the season.   And he is ok with it.

You also stated offering him a good return.   It wasnt.

 

[FF Ninja]

Just for fun, a little Player A vs. Player B

Both players are 5th year vets
Player A: 25.8 years old, 5'11" 224 lbs
Player B: 26.6 years old, 5'8" 206 lbs
Player A: 807/3548/26 rushing (4.4 ypc), 104/818/1 receiving
Player B: 766/3321/30 rushing (4.3 ypc), 198/1605/7 receiving

Additional clue if needed... Team fantasy points from the previous 4 seasons (passing+rushing added together):
Player A's team: 32nd (3736.8)
Player B's team: 4th (4806.4)

 

[joey]

Next year's rookies: any uber studs in the making?

I ask because, going back to the Guice value question someone posted a few pages back, I mentioned a trade offer that I declined where another owner was offering me his 1st round pick next year for Guice. Well that owner is now by himself in last place at 1-5 and I'm wondering if there's a Barkley-type (or Julio/AJG-type) in next year's rookie class that would be worth gambling on that rookie pick vs. gambling on an injured dude that most had ranked as the 2nd best rookie this year.

Thoughts on next year's rookie pick values?

 

[Concept Coop]

Next year's rookies: any uber studs in the making?

I ask because, going back to the Guice value question someone posted a few pages back, I mentioned a trade offer that I declined where another owner was offering me his 1st round pick next year for Guice. Well that owner is now by himself in last place at 1-5 and I'm wondering if there's a Barkley-type (or Julio/AJG-type) in next year's rookie class that would be worth gambling on that rookie pick vs. gambling on an injured dude that most had ranked as the 2nd best rookie this year.

Thoughts on next year's rookie pick values?

Weak class, in my opinion. Certainly no Barkley/Gurley or Julio/Green prospects. I think a couple WRs will be over drafted and end up looking like Davis/Williams level guys, but I don’t even love the WR group, at the very top. 

 

[joey]

Weak class, in my opinion. Certainly no Barkley/Gurley or Julio/Green prospects. I think a couple WRs will be over drafted and end up looking like Davis/Williams level guys, but I don’t even love the WR group, at the very top. 

thanks for the reply.

any other thoughts on next year's class appreciated...

 

[Zyphros]

Next year's rookies: any uber studs in the making?

I ask because, going back to the Guice value question someone posted a few pages back, I mentioned a trade offer that I declined where another owner was offering me his 1st round pick next year for Guice. Well that owner is now by himself in last place at 1-5 and I'm wondering if there's a Barkley-type (or Julio/AJG-type) in next year's rookie class that would be worth gambling on that rookie pick vs. gambling on an injured dude that most had ranked as the 2nd best rookie this year.

Thoughts on next year's rookie pick values?

Almost none of the eligible Rb's are even 3 down backs at all so if you're thinking you'll replace Guice with a 3 down back, there just aren't many at all, let alone in the 1st round.  There's probably 3-5 WR's that people are talking about right now and any one of them could end up being 1.01, but again it's a crap-shoot on who is actually going to be there.  Most rankings I've seen vary quite a bit on who they have in their top5.  You'll see some repeat names here and there but its a wide range on the outlook for good reason right now.  

 

[joey]

Almost none of the eligible Rb's are even 3 down backs at all so if you're thinking you'll replace Guice with a 3 down back, there just aren't many at all, let alone in the 1st round.  There's probably 3-5 WR's that people are talking about right now and any one of them could end up being 1.01, but again it's a crap-shoot on who is actually going to be there.  Most rankings I've seen vary quite a bit on who they have in their top5.  You'll see some repeat names here and there but its a wide range on the outlook for good reason right now.  

thanks for the reply. Great info and much appreciated.

Sounds like Guice-injured-3-down-back-in-a-good-situtation >> 2019 1.01 pick according to you and Coop.

 

[Zyphros]

thanks for the reply. Great info and much appreciated.

Sounds like Guice-injured-3-down-back-in-a-good-situtation >> 2019 1.01 pick according to you and Coop.

The only reason I see to trade Guice is if I'm stacked at RB AND I need WR help.  At this point I'm fairly comfortable saying Guice would cream any of the 2019 draft class of RB's as a prospect.  That said, someone might be frustrated with him taking up a roster spot and it's possible to trade for him.  

 

[Ray Barboni]

Thoughts on Robert Woods? 

I think hes he’s the low key “buy” in that offense. Kupp is always going to be there, but I have reservations about Cooks. I know they love him, but it seems McVay just wants a field stretcher - which means he’s replaceable IMO.

they don’t utilize the TE ... Woods is the steady overlooked WR. 

Woods could be the sneaky buy right now, low price tag - locked up in a high powered offense.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Next year's rookies: any uber studs in the making?

I ask because, going back to the Guice value question someone posted a few pages back, I mentioned a trade offer that I declined where another owner was offering me his 1st round pick next year for Guice. Well that owner is now by himself in last place at 1-5 and I'm wondering if there's a Barkley-type (or Julio/AJG-type) in next year's rookie class that would be worth gambling on that rookie pick vs. gambling on an injured dude that most had ranked as the 2nd best rookie this year.

Thoughts on next year's rookie pick values?

The class was considered weak heading into the season and since then 3 of the top 10 prospects have suffered major injuries (including one career ender) and several others have underperformed.

Guys' names will pick up steam as we near the draft but think a Sony/Penny type prospect as the top RB and several Courtland Sutton types at the top at WR.

Of course a lot can change between now and then.