Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)

[FreeBaGeL]

No no, you've got it totally backwards. I'm not talking about selling to avoid a dip in targets, I'm talking about selling to take advantage of a huge 4 week target load. The plan would be to capitalize on dynasty owners who have redraft logic. People get caught up in 4 week samples. If you can get 196 expected targets returns for Juju, you're doing well even if he ends up getting 140 targets for the next 3 years. 

I'm not saying dump him for the best offer you can get. I'm just saying test the waters and sell high if possible. Juju is the WR2 on his team. If you can essentially get a WR1 like Evans for him, I think that's a win.

What you're saying makes sense but I think it may be one of those things that makes more sense in theory than in practice.

The biggest roadblock to putting it into practice is that no one is really paying 196 target value for JuJu.  196 target JuJu is scoring almost 20 fantasy points per game which is better than Hopkins/OBJ not just this season, but their career averages.  On top of that he's almost 5 years younger than those guys.

So what would a 22 year old Hopkins/OBJ be worth?  196 target JuJu would be worth Hopkins + 1st or OBJ + 1st, maybe even multiple 1sts.  Yet no one is giving either of those guys straight up for JuJu, much less adding a 1st.  JuJu probably couldn't even pull those guys in a deal if you added a 1st to the JuJu side.

So in practice, there is already some pretty hefty target regression built into JuJu's value.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'll try to word it more carefully in the future. How does "seek an overpay" sound?

No, I do think I misunderstood you. And seeking an overpay is always a smart move.

 

[Concept Coop]

price check on Matt Breida?

Are people buying him as the RB to own in SF this year and beyond? It's hard to tell if buying now would be buying high or buying low...

I haven’t spent much time on Brieda, but based on the one full SF game I watched this season, I think he’s a talent. PFF agrees. I’d pay a late 1st without needing to do much homework, if I’m competing and can plug him into my lineup.

Not sure I’m much help though, not having spent much time on him.

 

[NeverEnough]

price check on Matt Breida?

Are people buying him as the RB to own in SF this year and beyond? It's hard to tell if buying now would be buying high or buying low...

I was offered Breida & Kerryon for Fournette in PPR dynasty today. I declined. He then said M. Evans & Kerryon for my Fournette & Juju...

 

[mjb03003]

I was offered Breida & Kerryon for Fournette in PPR dynasty today. I declined. He then said M. Evans & Kerryon for my Fournette & Juju...

Yeah, I saw that above...

 

[NeverEnough]

Yeah, I saw that above...

What do you think of that?

 

[Pwingles]

what would someone need to add to Ingram to get fournette? Assuming LF owner is only mildly worried and not full on panic mode

 

[Concept Coop]

what would someone need to add to Ingram to get fournette? Assuming LF owner is only mildly worried and not full on panic mode

Guice or Chubb might get it done. Maybe Cooper or a similar WR.

 

[mjb03003]

What do you think of that?

I think it's a fair counter. Depends on your level of concern around Fournette and how high you are on Kerryon. I think I'd try to squeeze a little more out of it, since the guy is clearly willing to pay up for Fournette. 

 

[FF Ninja]

What you're saying makes sense but I think it may be one of those things that makes more sense in theory than in practice.

The biggest roadblock to putting it into practice is that no one is really paying 196 target value for JuJu.  196 target JuJu is scoring almost 20 fantasy points per game which is better than Hopkins/OBJ not just this season, but their career averages.  On top of that he's almost 5 years younger than those guys.

So what would a 22 year old Hopkins/OBJ be worth?  196 target JuJu would be worth Hopkins + 1st or OBJ + 1st, maybe even multiple 1sts.  Yet no one is giving either of those guys straight up for JuJu, much less adding a 1st.  JuJu probably couldn't even pull those guys in a deal if you added a 1st to the JuJu side.

So in practice, there is already some pretty hefty target regression built into JuJu's value.

Sure, they may not view it as 196 expected targets, but they might think of it as he's young and he's building on a nice rookie year. They might attribute his stats to skill rather than unsustainable target load. Every league has a manager or two like that, or so it seems. And it falls under the "you never know til you ask" category. I've seen some crazy stupid trades and the story goes that they were just sending the outrageous offer to get a conversation started...

 

[EBF]

Kerryon has a long way to go before I'm convinced he's more than just another pretty good back. Even though I'm a youth junkie in dynasty (and in redraft too, for that matter), "young player with potential" is probably the single most overrated population segment in dynasty leagues since many players in the NFL are capable of thriving in spurts, whereas very few are capable of making it last. Did you see what Mike Davis did last weekend? When a mediocre retread has a good week, we know it's just a temporary fluke. When a high pick rookie does it, we automatically assume it's the norm moving forward. Faulty assumption a lot of the time. I'm far from sold on people like Michel and Kerryon.

I wouldn't indiscriminately sell every top RB prospect who flashes potential because that's a great way to "sell high" on legit monsters like Zeke, Gurley, and Bell. However, I would generally recommend erring on the side of skepticism with these guys since relatively few of them will have staying power. Personally, I'm a buyer/holder of Chubb, Barkley, and Mixon. I'm a seller of Cook, Kerryon, Michel, and maybe even Fournette if the price is good. I'm a little bit leery of Hunt. Kamara is great, but the system is so friendly there that with all their skill guys I wonder how much of what I'm buying is the player and how much of it is Payton's offense (applies to M Thomas, Ingram, Kamara, and basically everyone in NO).

 

[Ray Barboni]

Can we talk about CMC vs Mixon? 

Dynasty value going forward? Seems the concensous is CMC - but Mixon IS best suited for featured duty. 

Hard to give up CMC though ... kid is a gamer and has thee “it” factor. 

I dont like that Mixon is a Bengal ... should that matter? 

Thoughts? 

CMC vs Mixon 

 

[Milkman]

Thielen has to move up the dynasty rankings with the start he's had. He's on the older side but man he looks elite out there. 

 

[Zyphros]

Thielen has to move up the dynasty rankings with the start he's had. He's on the older side but man he looks elite out there. 

Age is the exact reason I can't see him moving up any further.  I think he's a top20 guy no question but honestly how much longer does he have?  3-5 years max of elite production?  There's a lot of guys in that 10 or later range with age on their side and I can easily see preferring some of them over Thielen in startups.  Hell there's a WR on the same team that people will prefer and he's not even considered a top10 guy by most rankings I've seen.  

Where are you projecting him to be in the future?  Top15?

 

[Zyphros]

Can we talk about CMC vs Mixon? 

Dynasty value going forward? Seems the concensous is CMC - but Mixon IS best suited for featured duty. 

Hard to give up CMC though ... kid is a gamer and has thee “it” factor. 

I dont like that Mixon is a Bengal ... should that matter? 

Thoughts? 

CMC vs Mixon 

The floor on CMC is so amazingly high I love every minute of it.  The problem is Cam who loves vulturing his TD's so his ceiling isn't as high as a guy like Mixon.  I think it's a pretty classic case of floor vs ceiling.  Mixon sure does look the part but I need to see him do it for an extended period of time (which he's started doing) before I take him over CMC.  I think they're both top8 dynasty RB's though.  

 

[Milkman]

Age is the exact reason I can't see him moving up any further.  I think he's a top20 guy no question but honestly how much longer does he have?  3-5 years max of elite production?  There's a lot of guys in that 10 or later range with age on their side and I can easily see preferring some of them over Thielen in startups.  Hell there's a WR on the same team that people will prefer and he's not even considered a top10 guy by most rankings I've seen.  

Where are you projecting him to be in the future?  Top15?

Yeah I think I agree. He's just to old to move up anymore. His game should age well but he won't be elite in 3 years when he's 31. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Godwin>Golladay

I like both but if one of them is going to become a fantasy stud, it's Golladay. Godwin is more a possession type and will play second fiddle to Evans with an inferior QB (I realize Stafford v. Winston is debatable though). Tate and Jones will age or price their way out of Detroit much sooner.

 

[Concept Coop]

Thielen has to move up the dynasty rankings with the start he's had. He's on the older side but man he looks elite out there. 

I agree. He has to be right there next to Julio and Brown, at least. I don’t know that I’d trade him for of either of them right now. Brown is 2 years older and will talk his way out of Pittsburgh soon. Julio is in a lesser situation. Over a 3 year window, Thielen looks elite. Unless you’re rebuilding, I think you’re getting cute by preferring riskier, less productive guys, hoping for an extra couple seasons.

I have no issues saying you were right on Thielen, Milkman. 

 

[FF Ninja]

I like both but if one of them is going to become a fantasy stud, it's Golladay. Godwin is more a possession type and will play second fiddle to Evans with an inferior QB (I realize Stafford v. Winston is debatable though). Tate and Jones will age or price their way out of Detroit much sooner.

Wait, what? https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/chris-godwin/

Golladay is taller and slower than Godwin. Don't get me wrong - both are fast enough to get deep, but if you were to say one was a possession receiver I wouldn't think it would be Godwin.

I agree with you that Godwin will play second fiddle to Evans for 2019 and 2020, and I agree Stafford>Winston, although I'd argue the difference is negligible for fantasy WR purposes (same TD rate, Winston with the higher YPA). However, I think the probability of Marvin leaving before Golladay's contract is up basically nil. $8M/year already seems cheap and will only seem cheaper in the next two years. Whether Tate gets re-signed is another question and one that will greatly impact Golladay's next two years. But one could argue that Golladay's matchups with the CB3 and Stafford's willingness to throw to the open man is what is helping Golladay right now. His aDoT is right between the two (Marvin/Tate). 

On the other hand, Godwin is almost certain to inherit the WR2 job next year, as I think the odds of DeSean re-signing are much lower than Tate.

But I'll admit, my distaste for old rookies could be playing a part here and their >2yr age gap turned me off on Golladay last year.

Again, I own neither one, but the only one I'm trying to get is Godwin (although extremely unsuccessfully). 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Wait, what? https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/chris-godwin/

Golladay is taller and slower than Godwin. Don't get me wrong - both are fast enough to get deep, but if you were to say one was a possession receiver I wouldn't think it would be Godwin.

I agree with you that Godwin will play second fiddle to Evans for 2019 and 2020, and I agree Stafford>Winston, although I'd argue the difference is negligible for fantasy WR purposes (same TD rate, Winston with the higher YPA). However, I think the probability of Marvin leaving before Golladay's contract is up basically nil. $8M/year already seems cheap and will only seem cheaper in the next two years. Whether Tate gets re-signed is another question and one that will greatly impact Golladay's next two years. But one could argue that Golladay's matchups with the CB3 and Stafford's willingness to throw to the open man is what is helping Golladay right now. His aDoT is right between the two (Marvin/Tate). 

On the other hand, Godwin is almost certain to inherit the WR2 job next year, as I think the odds of DeSean re-signing are much lower than Tate.

But I'll admit, my distaste for old rookies could be playing a part here and their >2yr age gap turned me off on Golladay last year.

Again, I own neither one, but the only one I'm trying to get is Godwin (although extremely unsuccessfully). 

I don’t think being tall equates a possession WR and their speed is close enough to be irrelevant - but admittedly I only base that assessment on a limited sample size of viewing them both in action. Golladay looks far more dynamic to me. I’ve also seen him play more.

Golladay has already moved past Jones in the pecking order (maybe targets dont bear that out but production does) so I’m not really worried about him being around. The two can coexist, nevertheless. Ideally it would be better for Tate to leave but having both Tate and Jones aground hasn’t exactly hurt Golladay anyway - and as far as this conversation goes Godwin will always have Evan and Howard in the mix anyway so that all balances out.

Are you sure Golladay is being matched up with the CB3? I’m not saying you’re wrong about that - frankly I don’t know - but he is the starting WR in two WR sets and Tate only plays in the slot during three WR sets.  Even if we want to say he exlusively sees the third best CB on every play (which seems hard to believe) wouldn’t the same apply to Godwin since Evans and DJax would get the top coverage? 

I can’t really say which WR is the better get (Godwin is likleu cheaper at least) or that anyone is wrong to say Godwin is the better option, they both are interesting to me.

i own each - in two different leagues - and would surely not accept an offer of Godwin for Golladay. In a vacuum I would accept a Golladay for Godwin offer in the other league but for the sake of diversification, I’d probably just stand pat and keep Godwin there.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don’t think being tall equates a possession WR and their speed is close enough to be irrelevant - but admittedly I only base that assessment on a limited sample size of viewing them both in action. Golladay looks far more dynamic to me. I’ve also seen him play more.

Golladay has already moved past Jones in the pecking order (maybe targets dont bear that out but production does) so I’m not really worried about him being around. The two can coexist, nevertheless. Ideally it would be better for Tate to leave but having both Tate and Jones aground hasn’t exactly hurt Golladay anyway - and as far as this conversation goes Godwin will always have Evan and Howard in the mix anyway so that all balances out.

Are you sure Golladay is being matched up with the CB3? I’m not saying you’re wrong about that - frankly I don’t know - but he is the starting WR in two WR sets and Tate only plays in the slot during three WR sets.  Even if we want to say he exlusively sees the third best CB on every play (which seems hard to believe) wouldn’t the same apply to Godwin since Evans and DJax would get the top coverage? 

I can’t really say which WR is the better get (Godwin is likleu cheaper at least) or that anyone is wrong to say Godwin is the better option, they both are interesting to me.

i own each - in two different leagues - and would surely not accept an offer of Godwin for Golladay. In a vacuum I would accept a Golladay for Godwin offer in the other league but for the sake of diversification, I’d probably just stand pat and keep Godwin there.

I think Marvin is still a better WR than Golladay and suspect he's drawing the CB1 most games. For reference: link 1 and link 2. I think defenses are trying to take that option away which leaves Golladay open a lot. I'm not sure who Tate is drawing. You might be right, though, but Tate's run after the catch ability has to draw a lot of attention from defenses. Detroit runs a LOT of 3WR sets, so all three are on the field most of the time.

I'm sure Golladay is more expensive on average than Godwin due to their stats this year, and you'd be right to try to tap into that perceived value and ask for extra if someone were to offer Godwin for your Golladay, but I still like the long term upside of Godwin better (next ~10 years)... so if it was me, I'd ask for an extra piece, but would probably settle for as little as a 3rd on top of Godwin to make the trade. But taking your two teams into account, I'd probably stand pat with one on each team. 

Just for discussion sake, where do you rank Golladay (24.9) in relation to guys like Lockett (26.0), Boyd (23.9), Fuller (24.5), Mike Williams (24.0), Robby Anderson (25.4), Ridley (23.8), Westbrook (24.9), and Shepard (24.7 or 25.7 ). Those guys are all in a similar tier to me. And bonus question: have Amari Cooper (24.3) and Sammy Watkins (25.3) fallen down into that tier yet?

 

[Concept Coop]

Are you sure Golladay is being matched up with the CB3? I’m not saying you’re wrong about that - frankly I don’t know - but he is the starting WR in two WR sets and Tate only plays in the slot during three WR sets.  Even if we want to say he exlusively sees the third best CB on every play (which seems hard to believe) wouldn’t the same apply to Godwin since Evans and DJax would get the top coverage? 

Most teams keep their outside corners to one side and don’t shadow the opposing #1. I don’t really buy the “top corner” argument. And Tate would draw the slot guy, regardless.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Just for discussion sake, where do you rank Golladay (24.9) in relation to guys like Lockett (26.0), Boyd (23.9), Fuller (24.5), Mike Williams (24.0), Robby Anderson (25.4), Ridley (23.8), Westbrook (24.9), and Shepard (24.7 or 25.7 ). Those guys are all in a similar tier to me. And bonus question: have Amari Cooper (24.3) and Sammy Watkins (25.3) fallen down into that tier yet?

As you know, guys like that are all tough to rank (as they are in many ways interchangeable) but at this point I would have them:

Cooper (I'm still a believer but admittedly it's fading)

Ridley

Golladay

Williams

Watkins

Shepard

Lockett

Fuller

Westbrook

Anderson

Boyd

I own about half that list (among my 5 leagues) so trying to view it as who I would move for who.

 

[FF Ninja]

As you know, guys like that are all tough to rank (as they are in many ways interchangeable) but at this point I would have them:

Cooper (I'm still a believer but admittedly it's fading)

Ridley

Golladay

Williams

Watkins

Shepard

Lockett

Fuller

Westbrook

Anderson

Boyd

I own about half that list (among my 5 leagues) so trying to view it as who I would move for who.

Yeah, definitely tough to rank those guys so I appreciate the effort! As a Jets guy, any reason in particular you are so low on Anderson? I don't have a good feel for him, so not criticizing the ranking. Just genuinely curious... although I don't own him in any dynasties.

I've been impressed with Shepard. He had a few huge games last year with OBJ out and is catching pretty much anything the oft errant Eli throws at him (78% catch rate this season). Conversely, I can't stand Fuller and his brick hands but he just keeps putting up numbers when healthy.

Most teams keep their outside corners to one side and don’t shadow the opposing #1. I don’t really buy the “top corner” argument. And Tate would draw the slot guy, regardless.

It's not just the corner, but defensive coverage. From the parts of Detroit games that I've seen, Golladay is not a defensive priority. That may change as the season goes on, though. Will be interesting to watch.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I don't own any shares of either Golladay or Godwin and honestly don't know much about Godwin, but I watch a lot of Detroit and I certainly wouldn't characterize Golladay as a possession receiver in any sense.  He is targeted way downfield often and makes a lot of big plays, and has a career 16.5 ypr.

I haven't paid that close of attention to who is covering him, but I wouldn't say he's just running around open in soft coverage.  His biggest boon is that he is pretty darn incredible at making contested catches and many of his big plays are just him going up and getting the ball in traffic.

Regardless, it's not like Godwin is drawing the CB1 with Evans on the other side anyway, not to mention DJax who is having a huge year.  I would venture to guess he's seeing easier coverage than Golladay.

Golladay looks like a stud to me, and I wish I owned him somewhere.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Yeah, definitely tough to rank those guys so I appreciate the effort! As a Jets guy, any reason in particular you are so low on Anderson? I don't have a good feel for him, so not criticizing the ranking. Just genuinely curious... although I don't own him in any dynasties.

There's a lot to like about Anderson but I just don't see him as a true NFL WR1 - in fact I think he's best suited as a deep threat WR3. I think he thrived with McCown because the team had nothing else and McCown was a gunslinger. A more cerebral QB like Darnold is only going to let if fly downfield when he's open. I think he'll just be too inconsistent from week to week.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't own any shares of either Golladay or Godwin and honestly don't know much about Godwin, but I watch a lot of Detroit and I certainly wouldn't characterize Golladay as a possession receiver in any sense.  He is targeted way downfield often and makes a lot of big plays, and has a career 16.5 ypr.

I haven't paid that close of attention to who is covering him, but I wouldn't say he's just running around open in soft coverage.  His biggest boon is that he is pretty darn incredible at making contested catches and many of his big plays are just him going up and getting the ball in traffic.

Regardless, it's not like Godwin is drawing the CB1 with Evans on the other side anyway, not to mention DJax who is having a huge year.  I would venture to guess he's seeing easier coverage than Golladay.

Golladay looks like a stud to me, and I wish I owned him somewhere.

For the record, I never said Golladay was a possession receiver. I was just saying if either of the two was to be classified as a possession receiver, I'd think it would be Golladay rather than Godwin. But I don't perceive either to be that. FWIW, he is currently the guy running most of the intermediate routes in Detroit, though, as seen by his aDoT landing between Jones and Tate. I've seen him targeted deep and behind the line, but the vast majority of his routes are intermediate. 

I liked what I saw out of Godwin when DeSean missed the last two games last year. As for this year, I don't know for sure, but I think he and DeSean are splitting snaps as the WR2 (with Humphries manning the slot in 3WR sets). Maybe I'm wrong, but they are both playing about 50% of the snaps. Either way, I don't think he's just playing as a 3rd WR. 

 

[FF Ninja]

There's a lot to like about Anderson but I just don't see him as a true NFL WR1 - in fact I think he's best suited as a deep threat WR3. I think he thrived with McCown because the team had nothing else and McCown was a gunslinger. A more cerebral QB like Darnold is only going to let if fly downfield when he's open. I think he'll just be too inconsistent from week to week.

I'm guessing he won't be back when his contract is up. Only one more year with Darnold.

 

[Zyphros]

How are people feeling about Guice right now?  Obviously out for the year, but as a compete team now, what would be the minimum to accept in order to give him up.  

 

[ConnSKINS26]

How are people feeling about Guice right now?  Obviously out for the year, but as a compete team now, what would be the minimum to accept in order to give him up.  

This might be a little overboard but however you valued Cook after he went out for the year last year, is about how Guice should be valued imo. I know Cook put up numbers and passed the eye test for four NFL games compared to zero for Guice, but I liked Guice better as a prospect and he has more time to heal. No questions about his NFL fit just like Cook at the time. 

 

[Zyphros]

This might be a little overboard but however you valued Cook after he went out for the year last year, is about how Guice should be valued imo. I know Cook put up numbers and passed the eye test for four NFL games compared to zero for Guice, but I liked Guice better as a prospect and he has more time to heal. No questions about his NFL fit just like Cook at the time. 

That doesn't help me figure it out since I'm the last guy on these boards that'll buy Cook ha.  I'm assuming roughly around 4th round startup value, or strong RB2/WR2 type of player straight up.  

 

[FF Ninja]

How are people feeling about Guice right now?  Obviously out for the year, but as a compete team now, what would be the minimum to accept in order to give him up.  

It would have to be a lot. More than what you mentioned in your follow up. I don't snake draft so I looked up an old August dynasty ADP to get a feel for 4th round startup and those guys would not cut it: Thielen, Baldwin, Alshon, Engram, Kerryon. Well, if I was really, really trying to win now, Thielen would be appealing due to his PPR pace, but I don't think Cousins is really going to throw the ball 723 times this year. 

Maybe I'm too high on Guice, but I think he's in a nearly perfect situation. Just look at how 33 year old Peterson is doing. Alex Smith moves the ball, but neither dominates a game nor turns the ball over. I'd need a nice, young WR back... Corey Davis, Diggs, Cooks. Keeping in mind it's a trade to help me win now the desperation level at the RB position would play a big part. I guess I would maybe take Howard, but I wouldn't be happy about it. 

The best route would probably be a combo. Try to get an older RB for this year with a younger prospect at any position. So like Lynch, Peterson, or Ingram plus Royce, Moore, or Sutton.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

It would have to be a lot. More than what you mentioned in your follow up. I don't snake draft so I looked up an old August dynasty ADP to get a feel for 4th round startup and those guys would not cut it: Thielen, Baldwin, Alshon, Engram, Kerryon. Well, if I was really, really trying to win now, Thielen would be appealing due to his PPR pace, but I don't think Cousins is really going to throw the ball 723 times this year. 

Maybe I'm too high on Guice, but I think he's in a nearly perfect situation. Just look at how 33 year old Peterson is doing. Alex Smith moves the ball, but neither dominates a game nor turns the ball over. I'd need a nice, young WR back... Corey Davis, Diggs, Cooks. Keeping in mind it's a trade to help me win now the desperation level at the RB position would play a big part. I guess I would maybe take Howard, but I wouldn't be happy about it. 

The best route would probably be a combo. Try to get an older RB for this year with a younger prospect at any position. So like Lynch, Peterson, or Ingram plus Royce, Moore, or Sutton.

I don't think you are.  

The issue is if he can come back healthy and can stay healthy.  

His upside is a young Marshawn Lynch with more speed before he reaches his prime.  I took him betting on his future upside and think I got a steal even knowing I'd got zero production this year.

I wouldn't trade him because I don't think anyone would offer the upside I'm betting on.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't think you are.  

The issue is if he can come back healthy and can stay healthy.  

His upside is a young Marshawn Lynch with more speed before he reaches his prime.  I took him betting on his future upside and think I got a steal even knowing I'd got zero production this year.

I wouldn't trade him because I don't think anyone would offer the upside I'm betting on.

Where did you get him? I'm curious where he was going after injury.

Lynch is/was awesome. I don't think their style is that similar, but I do like his upside and consider him a safe bet to succeed. Also, Lynch might've been a hair faster:
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/derrius-guice/
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/marshawn-lynch/

I agree with your last sentence, but the guy was asking specifically about trying to win now so I was just trying to think of what I would settle for if I was desperate after a few injuries.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I got him at the end of the 1st round of a rookie dynasty draft after his injury. 

It was fresh so the guys in my draft must have been scared off by the injury because I had no chance if he was healthy.  

When I saw him I thought he reminded me of Lynch and he even thinks his running style is like Lynch.

LSU RB Derrius Guice on his style of play: "I run like beast mode" | Mar 3, 2018

 

[FF Ninja]

I got him at the end of the 1st round of a rookie dynasty draft after his injury. 

It was fresh so the guys in my draft must have been scared off by the injury because I had no chance if he was healthy.  

When I saw him I thought he reminded me of Lynch and he even thinks his running style is like Lynch.

LSU RB Derrius Guice on his style of play: "I run like beast mode" | Mar 3, 2018

Yeah, of course he wasn't slipping that far if healthy (usually the 1.02 pick), but I think that's still a great deal for you. If I had any drafts post-injury, I'd have been trying like hell to trade into the back end of the 1st round if he was still available. 

Well, everybody WANTS to run like beast mode. Few have his combination of elusiveness + tackle breaking ability. Usually you are doing good to get one or the other. I guess we'll see how he looks next year. Even without being Lynch 2.0, I think his career is very promising. He was about a year younger than most of the other prospects, so I don't mind him missing a year.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Haven't heard from Daniel Jeremiah in awhile but he put up a list of his top twenty five rookies to date.

This is before Sunday based on the first quarter of the season.

Go to the link.

2018 NFL rookie rankings: Darius Leonard on top at quarter mark By Daniel Jeremiah NFL Media analyst

 

[kittenmittens]

Lots of waiver stashes from this year and previous years seem to have added a lot of value, more even than most years if I recall. 

Worth a 1st round rookie pick?

Tyler Boyd

Geronimo Allison

Worth a 2nd?

Keelan Cole

Marquez Valdes-Scadling

David Moore

Phillip Dorsett 

James White has also probably vaulted himself up to the late 1st early 2nd range. 

 

[Elevencents]

Where did you get him? I'm curious where he was going after injury.

Lynch is/was awesome. I don't think their style is that similar, but I do like his upside and consider him a safe bet to succeed. Also, Lynch might've been a hair faster:
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/derrius-guice/
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/marshawn-lynch/

I agree with your last sentence, but the guy was asking specifically about trying to win now so I was just trying to think of what I would settle for if I was desperate after a few injuries.

It’s not dynasty but I drafted him in the 11th and we are able to put players on IR and keep them in the same round the following year. 

 

[Zyphros]

Lots of waiver stashes from this year and previous years seem to have added a lot of value, more even than most years if I recall. 

Worth a 1st round rookie pick?

Tyler Boyd

Geronimo Allison

Worth a 2nd?

Keelan Cole

Marquez Valdes-Scadling

David Moore

Phillip Dorsett 

James White has also probably vaulted himself up to the late 1st early 2nd range. 

I wouldn't be a buyer of any of them honestly.  I heard/read this somewhere but I have no idea where "it's the year of the NFL WR2".  There's so many guys performing at decent rates that a WR3 (for fantasy) can be found literally anywhere, especially in shallow leagues.  If you're a good team you likely aren't relying on any of those in your WR2 spot so you're looking at a flex upgrade most likely.  I just can't see myself spending a high pick like a 1st to improve my flex spot.  

Sure they do have some long term value, but those guys are generally replaceable in the churn of a roster, and those who keep them, regret it because they clog up your stashes.  If you own them, I'd sell any one of them in a heartbeat for a 2nd (in deeper leagues) as long as I had enough depth to keep me covered.  

 

[Concept Coop]

I wouldn't be a buyer of any of them honestly.  I heard/read this somewhere but I have no idea where "it's the year of the NFL WR2".  There's so many guys performing at decent rates that a WR3 (for fantasy) can be found literally anywhere, especially in shallow leagues.  If you're a good team you likely aren't relying on any of those in your WR2 spot so you're looking at a flex upgrade most likely.  I just can't see myself spending a high pick like a 1st to improve my flex spot.  

Sure they do have some long term value, but those guys are generally replaceable in the churn of a roster, and those who keep them, regret it because they clog up your stashes.  If you own them, I'd sell any one of them in a heartbeat for a 2nd (in deeper leagues) as long as I had enough depth to keep me covered.  

Boyd, to pick my favorite, is only 23 years old. It’s not a matter of paying a 1st to upgrade your flex spot; it’s investing in a promising young player who could turn into a difference maker, just as you’d eventually do with the pick. I couldn’t imagine sending him off for a 2nd round pick. 

 

[kutta]

I wouldn't be a buyer of any of them honestly.  I heard/read this somewhere but I have no idea where "it's the year of the NFL WR2".  There's so many guys performing at decent rates that a WR3 (for fantasy) can be found literally anywhere, especially in shallow leagues.  If you're a good team you likely aren't relying on any of those in your WR2 spot so you're looking at a flex upgrade most likely.  I just can't see myself spending a high pick like a 1st to improve my flex spot.  

Sure they do have some long term value, but those guys are generally replaceable in the churn of a roster, and those who keep them, regret it because they clog up your stashes.  If you own them, I'd sell any one of them in a heartbeat for a 2nd (in deeper leagues) as long as I had enough depth to keep me covered.  

I’m not sure about that. I’d hang on to just about any WR who had Rodgers throwing to him. You just never know how that might play out. It’s hard to find more upside than that.

 

[Zyphros]

Boyd, to pick my favorite, is only 23 years old. It’s not a matter of paying a 1st to upgrade your flex spot; it’s investing in a promising young player who could turn into a difference maker, just as you’d eventually do with the pick. I couldn’t imagine sending him off for a 2nd round pick. 

Boyd is definitely my favorite of that bunch, but he doesn't strike me as a "difference maker" like you call him.  He's very solid depth.  But how high does his value actually grow?  He's in a Dalton offense (purely stigma but still), although high producing, he isn't a feed me kind of guy.  I'd rather pay my 1st on guys like Golladay or Godwin who could turn out to be that.  Boyd is basically Amendola.  He'll stick around a long time and be productive, but he isn't that must own type of guy.  They have some value, but eventually settle into this complimentary NFL piece.  

I’m not sure about that. I’d hang on to just about any WR who had Rodgers throwing to him. You just never know how that might play out. It’s hard to find more upside than that.

Allison I like too, but again he's a guy that if I don't own already, I'm not looking to buy him.  There are a ton of WR's on that team that could make a difference and I'm basically banking on draft capital eventually taking over.  Definitely don't know how it'll play out and the upside is there though I'll grant that.  I think one of Valdes-Scantling, ESB, J'mon Moore, hell even Kumerow could take over eventually.  

 

[Elevencents]

You guys both make good points. I think I have to side with Zyphros based mostly on his two examples who I absolutely agree with - Godwin and Golladay I would pay for, the other guys not so much. I also agree with the Rodgers comment, the only problem is they have so many young receivers it's too early to tell who is gonna come out of that bunch. Scadling has shown early promise but he has in no way solidified his spot. 

 

[kittenmittens]

I wouldn't be a buyer of any of them honestly.  I heard/read this somewhere but I have no idea where "it's the year of the NFL WR2".  There's so many guys performing at decent rates that a WR3 (for fantasy) can be found literally anywhere, especially in shallow leagues.  If you're a good team you likely aren't relying on any of those in your WR2 spot so you're looking at a flex upgrade most likely.  I just can't see myself spending a high pick like a 1st to improve my flex spot.  

Sure they do have some long term value, but those guys are generally replaceable in the churn of a roster, and those who keep them, regret it because they clog up your stashes.  If you own them, I'd sell any one of them in a heartbeat for a 2nd (in deeper leagues) as long as I had enough depth to keep me covered.  

I don't disagree with much of this.  I think for every Doug Baldwin or Theilen there are three or four Tyrell Williams or Terrell Pryors who flash WR2 value but don't sustain it.  

Trading most of these guys when they peak except maybe a favorite who you think has the best chance at long term value is how you clear the roster space for the next wave of waiver stashes. 

I think now ish is the time to sell the ones you don't believe in. 

I like the Green Bay guys but Kumerow could muddy that going forward... Lots of opportunities in GB right now for a productive fantasy WR to emerge, and Cobb will almost surely be gone next year. 

 

[Concept Coop]

Boyd is definitely my favorite of that bunch, but he doesn't strike me as a "difference maker" like you call him.  He's very solid depth.  But how high does his value actually grow?  He's in a Dalton offense (purely stigma but still), although high producing, he isn't a feed me kind of guy.  I'd rather pay my 1st on guys like Golladay or Godwin who could turn out to be that.  Boyd is basically Amendola.  He'll stick around a long time and be productive, but he isn't that must own type of guy.  They have some value, but eventually settle into this complimentary NFL piece.  

Danny Amendola? That's random. 

Boyd broke Larry Fitzgerald's PTT records, was a top 50 draft pick, is currently 24th in DVOA, and is PPF's #13 WR. I don't know how you can be comfortable dismissing his ceiling. His situation doesn't look ideal today, but things change quickly and he's only 23 (and producing despite his situation). Both Boyd and Green are FAs at the end of next season. 

I don’t think I'd take Boyd over Godwin straight up, but would certainly prefer paying a 2nd for him to paying a 1st for Godwin. If Boyd isn't a "feed me" guy, neither is Godwin. Boyd has higher target and hog rates, as he did in college. 

 

[FF Ninja]

I wouldn't be a buyer of any of them honestly.  I heard/read this somewhere but I have no idea where "it's the year of the NFL WR2".  There's so many guys performing at decent rates that a WR3 (for fantasy) can be found literally anywhere, especially in shallow leagues.  If you're a good team you likely aren't relying on any of those in your WR2 spot so you're looking at a flex upgrade most likely.  I just can't see myself spending a high pick like a 1st to improve my flex spot.  

Sure they do have some long term value, but those guys are generally replaceable in the churn of a roster, and those who keep them, regret it because they clog up your stashes.  If you own them, I'd sell any one of them in a heartbeat for a 2nd (in deeper leagues) as long as I had enough depth to keep me covered.  

Same here. With the exception that I might be interested in Cole for a 2nd (he's leading his team in snaps and averaging over 8 targets per game). Definitely not spending a 1st on Boyd, though. He had a nice 3-game span this season, but I wasn't high on him as a prospect and his team tried to replace him with Ross a year after spending a 2nd on him - seems like a bad sign, but it could just be bad management (either way, a red flag at a minimum). The only reason he's on the field is because Ross can't stay healthy and/or isn't good. Now this is not to say my original assessment of him couldn't be wrong or the Bengals weren't wrong to try to replace him, but it's the reason I wouldn't be trading a 1st for him. I think there will be some more appealing prospects available in the mid-to-late 1st next year. If not, I think that 1st will hold a lot more value then and I could land a better vet and/or someone with better production assurance.

That's not to say I'd fault someone like Concept Coop who would trade the 1st. If you liked Boyd as a prospect then you probably see this season as proof positive and want to hop on him before it is too late. No shame in that. But personally if I took over an orphan team and someone offered me a 1st for Boyd, I'd snap accept.

If I'm trading a 1st, I'm hoping for a disgruntled Amari owner as a trade partner. 1sts have a lot of value in the offseason, so I am careful not to blow them during this part of the season.

 

[Concept Coop]

Same here. With the exception that I might be interested in Cole for a 2nd (he's leading his team in snaps and averaging over 8 targets per game). Definitely not spending a 1st on Boyd, though. He had a nice 3-game span this season, but I wasn't high on him as a prospect and his team tried to replace him with Ross a year after spending a 2nd on him - seems like a bad sign, but it could just be bad management (either way, a red flag at a minimum). The only reason he's on the field is because Ross can't stay healthy and/or isn't good. Now this is not to say my original assessment of him couldn't be wrong or the Bengals weren't wrong to try to replace him, but it's the reason I wouldn't be trading a 1st for him. I think there will be some more appealing prospects available in the mid-to-late 1st next year. If not, I think that 1st will hold a lot more value then and I could land a better vet and/or someone with better production assurance.

That's not to say I'd fault someone like Concept Coop who would trade the 1st. If you liked Boyd as a prospect then you probably see this season as proof positive and want to hop on him before it is too late. No shame in that. But personally if I took over an orphan team and someone offered me a 1st for Boyd, I'd snap accept.

If I'm trading a 1st, I'm hoping for a disgruntled Amari owner as a trade partner. 1sts have a lot of value in the offseason, so I am careful not to blow them during this part of the season.

FTR, I didn't advocate trading a first for Boyd. I'd likely do it if I could guarantee the pick would end up outside of the top 10, but that's rare this early in the season. I wouldn't trade him for guys like Gallup or Kirk, who don't offer more upside, but would trade him for Sutton, who does. 

Boyd is the slot guy. He and Ross are in completion for the 2 WR set work, I suppose, but they play different positions. 

 

[kittenmittens]

How far apart are Mixon and McCaffrey in PPR? 

I think it's pretty close... Maybe McCaffrey right now but I like Mixon ceiling a bit more. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

You guys both make good points. I think I have to side with Zyphros based mostly on his two examples who I absolutely agree with - Godwin and Golladay I would pay for, the other guys not so much. I also agree with the Rodgers comment, the only problem is they have so many young receivers it's too early to tell who is gonna come out of that bunch. Scadling has shown early promise but he has in no way solidified his spot. 

Well that would be great if you could get Golladay or Godwin for the same price as Boyd, but you can't.  I don't think a random 1st even sniffs Golladay at this point.

It's actually kind of funny (though I am victim to the trap as much as anyone else as I vastly prefer those guys to Boyd) but neither of those guys are out producing Boyd, they both have worse draft pedigree than Boyd, and neither (especially Godwin) really has a track on their team's WR1 job in the immediate future.

Golladay is actually older than Boyd to boot.