Yeah, I keep thinking that in terms of actual points scored, Adams should flip with Moore in my rankings. But Davante is twenty-nine. That's getting up there.
Adams could still deliver a few seasons of elite production. From what I've seen, many here view dynasty in 2-3 year windows.
Here's how I see Adams:
Adams will be 30 in December. I can only view this as a negative. The Adam Thielen post-30 high-level production players are pretty rare in the NFL.
Adams went from the ARod to Carr. While there has been some flowery reporting (based on Adams' hyperbolic comments) it's hard not to see that as a downgrade, and a potentially significant one. I like Carr. I don't yet know if Carr's arm matches Adams skill set, or if the Raiders offensive play-calling will result in similar production that Adams had in GB. He had some moments with Ruggs, but really struggled with AC. And there are often growing pains year 1.
Adams goes from playing the Bears, Vikings, & Lions twice a year to playing the Chiefs, Chargers, & Broncos 2x a year. That would, at least at the moment, seem to be a much tougher division defensively. All of those AFC teams seemingly improved their defenses this offseason. The Broncos and Chargers are both top 10 NFL defenses, IMO. Chargers could be top 5.
There are seemingly more mouths to feed in Oakland than there were in GB. Rodgers peppered Adams with passes. In Oakland there's Waller, Renfrow, Demarcus Robinson, Keelan Cole. I realize it's not a whole group of world-beaters behind Adams, but it at least seems like a more consistent group than MVS, Lazard, ARodgers, Tonyan. The Raiders may well spread the ball around more.
Adams has been pretty healthy during his career (except for the year I had him when he hurt his toe) but the older players get, seemingly the greater the injury risk. There are exceptions of course.
For redraft, I think Adams is pretty fairly priced, though his 1.10 ADP seems like the market is expecting zero drop-off from GB to OAK, and I think that's flawed. Chase at 1.09 seems like a full tier above Adams, given the team change. Still, he's above Diggs, Deebo & Hill, and given their respective situations, Diggs is the only one I'd probably consider over Adams until there's more clarity on Deebo's situation, and until people see how good the connection between Tua & Hill really is. As we get closer to the season I could see taking Hill over Adams, but that's if Carr to Adams doesn't look as good as Tua to Hill once we see them on the field.
For Dynasty, I would not be looking to acquire Adams (rebuild), though I could see a win-now team pushing their chips in on him. Even if you get 2 years of "typical" Adams production in his age 29 & 30 seasons (he'll be 30 & 31 at the end, respectively) it could mean a LCG or 2. Heck, I could even see doing it with a 15% drop in production & 3-5 games missed due to soft tissue injury. Just know that he's likely going to retire on your roster.
He's an interesting player to evaluate - his production has been so consistently excellent. So much has changed though - and while Tyreek Hill has fallen to the mid-2nd (currently 2.06, he went ~1.10 in 2021, IIRC) Adams has only dropped a spot or 2 from 2021 ADP. Seems optimistic. Time will tell.
