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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)

No, not a chance in hell, never, nada, no way…..how else can I say it!
I can only add…

never, ever, ever. Put your calculator away on this one. 
 

Just enjoy Pitts for the next 10 years.  

 
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No, I wouldn't. That's not even a calc trade, really. No way do those pieces suffice for Pitts. 
That was my gut feeling too, but appreciate the affirmation from you & @Gally

I might see if I can turn the 2nd into a 1st.

my initial offer was Garrett Wilson, ‘23 mid-1st & ‘Muth and he countered.

i felt like that was a pretty fair deal. I’mma stick to my guns, but appreciate the input, thanks!

 
I can only add…

never, ever, ever. Put your calculator away on this one. 
 

Just enjoy Pitts for the next 10 years.  
Haha - yeah, well,  I have a full rebuild going and every player has a price. If I get a godfather offer, I might consider it.

clearly this ain’t that. :)  

 
If the 2nd was a 1st, would that change the callous for you? Or still not enough? 

I’m feeling like we’ve hit the point where Pitts’ value may be at a peak. Starting to wonder how long it’s going to take for him to realize his potential on a team that’s kind of a hot mess. Especially since it’s not TE-P. 
The way I see the TE landscape is that there are ton of guys like 'Muth.  You may not know who they are from year to year but those TE5-10 guys are all very similar so their value is pretty low to me in the grand scheme of things.  

Pitts OTOH seems to have disappointed last year and still finished top 5-ish at the position.  That is his floor to me.  He is a difference maker at that position even if he doesn't hit his lofty expectations.  He is likely a guy I just wouldn't trade because the trader and tradee will be too far off.  I want an overpay to move him right now.  That isn't going to happen.

So that package with a 1st instead of the 2nd is about a fair value (assuming early to mid 1st) is on the fair side but still not enough for me to move Pitts.

 
That was my gut feeling too, but appreciate the affirmation from you & @Gally

I might see if I can turn the 2nd into a 1st.

my initial offer was Garrett Wilson, ‘23 mid-1st & ‘Muth and he countered.

i felt like that was a pretty fair deal. I’mma stick to my guns, but appreciate the input, thanks!
I respect your opinions on this Forum, but not even a 2023 1st would do it for me. Enjoy what you have ( in life and Pitts)

 
Haha - yeah, well,  I have a full rebuild going and every player has a price. If I get a godfather offer, I might consider it.

clearly this ain’t that. :)  
I’d be looking for the equivalent of 3 firsts. Even then I don’t know if I’d do it.  Your initial offer wasn’t terrible. 

 
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I respect your opinions on this Forum, but not even a 2023 1st would do it for me. Enjoy what you have ( in life and Pitts)
Appreciate you talking me off the ledge.  Still, Wilson/1.06-ish/‘Muth is like 2x 1sts and a replacement TE. 

But yeah, it’s probably not better than having Pitts. 

 
That was my gut feeling too, but appreciate the affirmation from you & @Gally

I might see if I can turn the 2nd into a 1st.

my initial offer was Garrett Wilson, ‘23 mid-1st & ‘Muth and he countered.

i felt like that was a pretty fair deal. I’mma stick to my guns, but appreciate the input, thanks!
I think you're lucky he turned down the deal, actually. I wouldn't accept that for Pitts. Unless you need bodies more than anything. If you told me a '22 1st, a '23 mid-first, and a '22 early second, I wouldn't accept that, I don't think. Maybe my valuation of Pitts is all out of whack, but that's what I think. He's at least as valuable as that, really, and I lean more valuable.  

 
Maybe the Wilson offer would have been beneficial. I don't really know. To me, a second is a total crapshoot so you're looking at Wilson in a Jets offense and a mid 2023 1st, and we're not even sure how good those guys are going to be. Starting to see chatter about the '23 class coming back to earth once you get past six or seven of them if it's a 1 QB league.  

 
I think you're lucky he turned down the deal, actually. I wouldn't accept that for Pitts. Unless you need bodies more than anything. If you told me a '22 1st, a '23 mid-first, and a '22 early second, I wouldn't accept that, I don't think. Maybe my valuation of Pitts is all out of whack, but that's what I think. He's at least as valuable as that, really, and I lean more valuable.  
That’s what the calcs say he’s worth, but in reality I’m seeing more trades like what I offered. There’s a bit of a chasm between “on paper” value, and how much FF managers are willing to pay for him.

 
Maybe the Wilson offer would have been beneficial. I don't really know. To me, a second is a total crapshoot so you're looking at Wilson in a Jets offense and a mid 2023 1st, and we're not even sure how good those guys are going to be. Starting to see chatter about the '23 class coming back to earth once you get past six or seven of them if it's a 1 QB league.  
I think the 23 class is supposed to be significantly better at QB and RB, but how could it not be. 

For a rebuild, the top of this draft isn’t that bad. Particularly if you like to build around WRs as I do.  It just doesn’t have the Chase, Pitts, Barkley type player to increase the hype.

All that said, I’d still want two top 6-7 2022 picks and a good young player, at least.

 
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That’s what the calcs say he’s worth, but in reality I’m seeing more trades like what I offered. There’s a bit of a chasm between “on paper” value, and how much FF managers are willing to pay for him.
Always a consideration. Zeke is still worth a first in dynasty according to paper value. Good luck getting that. 

 
For a rebuild, the top of this draft isn’t that bad.
Oh yeah, no doubt. That's why I said after the first six or seven position guys, though it may even be more guys deep than that when it's all said and done. It may just be a dynamite first round for dynasty. But I've heard the chatter that it goes down a bit after that. Per Footballguys, they have said not to necessarily stock up on second rounders because it might not be that deep, and the individual reports on guys aren't as sterling as we thought. For instance, you have people claiming that Jaxon Smith-Njigba won't blaze the combine and will run around a 4.5 or so. And Bijan you have estimated at a 4.5 and doesn't have that breakaway speed others have, etc. Those are other peoples' claims, not mine

Just stuff I've seen on Twitter that I assimilate into my thoughts. 

I have not seen anything bad about Jahmyr Gibbs or Sean Tucker, though. Waiting on those guys. 

 
I really don't know. I'm just looking at the early reports and saying. We won't know until around next combine and Senior Bowl time what the hype is on guys and what the second round of dynasty drafts will look like. I don't think even the guys that follow it know, never mind me. 

 
Don't ask that guy.   He pays $26 for DB's.....hahahahahaaaa
Can you say blunder? I never thought he'd only outbid me by two bucks so for me to go back over the top meant I wound up with the rook. I might eat that one. But I had money to burn, I guess, and nobody to really burn it on. 

Bad move. 

 
Starting to see chatter about the '23 class coming back to earth once you get past six or seven of them if it's a 1 QB league.  
it’s a SF league, but I have the ‘23 class deeper than that. The RB class is spectacularly deep. Bijan at the top, clearly, but there’s a tier of Gibbs, Evans, Tucker, Bigsby, plus JSN & Boutte - that’s 7 right there. Plus Addison, Young, Stroud and maybe Richardson - and possibly guys like Rattler & Van Dyke. There are 3-4 other WR who could sneak up the board, and Michael Mayer is the elite TE. 

that’s more than 6 for sure. 

 
And Bijan you have estimated at a 4.5 and doesn't have that breakaway speed others have, etc.
yeah, I’m not buying that. I’ve seen plenty of tape on Bijan and dude can fly. He’s broken away from defenses plenty. And through and over them. He’s a beast, he has burst and he has take it to the house speed. Oh yeah, and he can catch & run routes. I’m likely to have 4 of the first 5 picks, and Robinson is high on my list. 

 
Can you say blunder? I never thought he'd only outbid me by two bucks so for me to go back over the top meant I wound up with the rook. I might eat that one. But I had money to burn, I guess, and nobody to really burn it on. 

Bad move. 
Allow me to make you feel a lot better.

Our 1st waivers were supposed to run on Sat, 6/25. Instead they ran Sat 6/18, a week early. 

The dude in our league who had Gronk put a claim in on Brate (about the only viable FA). But no one else did because they commish clearly said waivers would run 6/25. 

I was planning to bid like $21 for him. Another league member said she was gonna bid $30

He “won” Brate for $157 of his $500 FAAB. Bidding against no one. :lol:  

 
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it’s a SF league, but I have the ‘23 class deeper than that. The RB class is spectacularly deep. Bijan at the top, clearly, but there’s a tier of Gibbs, Evans, Tucker, Bigsby, plus JSN & Boutte - that’s 7 right there. Plus Addison, Young, Stroud and maybe Richardson - and possibly guys like Rattler & Van Dyke. There are 3-4 other WR who could sneak up the board, and Michael Mayer is the elite TE. 

that’s more than 6 for sure. 


Ah, okay. That changes it up then. And since I only follow guys in development on Twitter, I only get certain people's opinions on things with the requisite comments. Plus, when FBG says that, I listen. 

But I'll defer to you on this one since you're really up on this class and probably know the players better than even some of the writers who only dabble in the devy world do. 

This is how DLF has them listed in devy, just for ####s n' giggles. I went up to the top twelve of 2023

Bijan
TreVeon - 2024
CJ Stroud
Bryce Young
Jahmyr Gibbs
Smith-Njigba
Boutte 
Evans 
Addison
Caleb Williams - 2024
Xavier Worthy - 2024
Tank Bigsby
Quentin Johnson 
Braelon Allen - 2024
Brock Bowers - 2024
Will Shipley - 2024
Sean Tucker 
Michael Mayer 

 

 
This is not close to good value for Pitts.  Whichever calculators are saying they prefer the other side or its close get rid of
dynasty 101 has Pitts at an absurd value. 

To be clear, the calcs didn’t have this one that close. This was the counter. I’d asked for their 2023 1st (5-6-7), Garrett Wilson, and ‘Muth. Dynasty 101 had me losing by ~20%, Dynasty Dominator had me winning it by ~30%, which is why I posted the counter herr - to see if I was way off in my judgement or if the calcs were. 

But the deal you quoted was the counter offer, not what I was asking for, and none of the calcs liked it. 

 
dynasty 101 has Pitts at an absurd value. 

To be clear, the calcs didn’t have this one that close. This was the counter. I’d asked for their 2023 1st (5-6-7), Garrett Wilson, and ‘Muth. Dynasty 101 had me losing by ~20%, Dynasty Dominator had me winning it by ~30%, which is why I posted the counter herr - to see if I was way off in my judgement or if the calcs were. 

But the deal you quoted was the counter offer, not what I was asking for, and none of the calcs liked it. 
Keep Trade Cut also has the Wilson deal being ahead of Pitts by a decent margin and KTC usually values studs by way too much. I'm still inclined to really disagree with their valuation this time. I would have liked the Pitts side. 

 
Keep Trade Cut also has the Wilson deal being ahead of Pitts by a decent margin and KTC usually values studs by way too much. I'm still inclined to really disagree with their valuation this time. I would have liked the Pitts side. 


I think this is your answer right here
See, I feel like there’s a point where Pitts trade value vastly exceeds his real world value. And we may actually be at that point. His potential is worth more in assets than he can possibly deliver on that rebuilding ATL team.

MM / the rookie might be able to replicate last year’s value. Maybe a few more TDs, a few fewer receptions/yards.

but then what? ATL plays their way into a stroud or young? Now it’s a rookie QB on a still rebuilding team. So 2022 & 2023 likely won’t see an ascension of Pitts RW value. 

If I can get a player of 1st round value, and a couple 1sts, or a replacement TE + a ‘23 1st, can I really afford to turn that down as a rebuilding team? 

The Pitts value discussion is one of the more fascinating in fantasy. As a Pitts owner on a full rebuild obviously I have a vested interest in it. 

I still might try to move him while his value is so high, but I won’t settle for a counter like the one above. I’mma put him on the block. I’ll post up any subsequent offers I get. 

 
Calculator nerds are the worst. They should serve as a soft baseline and you should use 3-4 to gauge different viewpoints. The people who decline and screen-share a picture of calc results are the nuts worst.

——————

How are you valuing Marquise Brown? Is he a buy/hold/sell?

What about Tyreek Hill and D. Adams? I don’t see either moves and when I do it’s for a 1st and 2nd. 

 
Pitts is all but untradable for me. He's the most valuable dynasty asset and it's not close IMO. Way easier to find a WR if you need one than a bona fide stud TE who will rule the position for a decade. He's worth far more than Chase or Jefferson IMO due to positional scarcity.

 
Calculator nerds are the worst. They should serve as a soft baseline and you should use 3-4 to gauge different viewpoints. The people who decline and screen-share a picture of calc results are the nuts worst.
i did. What I’m saying is that they’re all wildly far apart on Pitts. 

——————

How are you valuing Marquise Brown? Is he a buy/hold/sell?
i have Brown as a hold. His value rock bottomed in BAL, and they never used him enough, or correctly, and I saw him as a bad fit with LJax regardless.

In AZ he should be a focal point of the offense and IMO has a chance to have post hype sleeper value. I like Moore as well, especially in the absence and likely decline of Hopkins in the coming years. 

TL/DR, I think he’s a hold who could see a value spike. 

What about Tyreek Hill and D. Adams? I don’t see either moves and when I do it’s for a 1st and 2nd. 
I’m high on Hill. I think his move to Miami is way overblown. The day I opined that here I noticed Joe Bryant’s email that evening said much the same. He’s going to be a focal point of that offense & they’re going to force feed him. As a mid-2nd he’s an absolute steal in redraft.

Adams - I posted a long and detailed post about my thoughts on Adams on the dynasty value topic a couple pages back.!

 
Pitts is all but untradable for me. He's the most valuable dynasty asset and it's not close IMO. Way easier to find a WR if you need one than a bona fide stud TE who will rule the position for a decade. He's worth far more than Chase or Jefferson IMO due to positional scarcity.
Same. I have him in a full rebuild and someone would just have to completely blow me away with an offer to get me to budge. I’m talking ridiculous overpay. 
 

I’m not expecting his value to change much this season because I expect a similar statistical season from him, just with more tds. Which is still ridiculous considering his youth. I fully expect, beginning in 2023, we’re going to see a 6-8 year run from Pitts like we’ve never seen at the position before. I think he’s going to have several 1500+/10+ td seasons. He is truly a unicorn. 

 
Same. I have him in a full rebuild and someone would just have to completely blow me away with an offer to get me to budge. I’m talking ridiculous overpay. 
 
I just put him on the block saying I’d need at least 2x 1sts and a replacement TE in the 5-9 range, or equivalent player value + TE. 

I’ll see what offers I get, if any. 

He may indeed be un-tradable. 

 
Calculator nerds are the worst. They should serve as a soft baseline and you should use 3-4 to gauge different viewpoints. The people who decline and screen-share a picture of calc results are the nuts worst
It’s really bad when they show you the 5 guys they offered for your 1 guy adds up to the same amount of points. 

 
Pitts is all but untradable for me. He's the most valuable dynasty asset and it's not close IMO. Way easier to find a WR if you need one than a bona fide stud TE who will rule the position for a decade. He's worth far more than Chase or Jefferson IMO due to positional scarcity.
There’s no way Pitts is worth “far more” than Jefferson or Chase - that’s crazy hype.

 
Pitts is all but untradable for me. He's the most valuable dynasty asset and it's not close IMO. Way easier to find a WR if you need one than a bona fide stud TE who will rule the position for a decade. He's worth far more than Chase or Jefferson IMO due to positional scarcity.
For the most part agree with all of this except what has already been mentioned and you addressed on the "not close" and "far more" then Chase/JJ. I have Pitts over them, but due to those WR's age, production and Pitt's QB issue I can't throw around that terminology. And this year matters and with Pitt's QB issue I can't see him having the impact those two do.

I’m not expecting his value to change much this season because I expect a similar statistical season from him, just with more tds. Which is still ridiculous considering his youth. I fully expect, beginning in 2023, we’re going to see a 6-8 year run from Pitts like we’ve never seen at the position before. I think he’s going to have several 1500+/10+ td seasons. He is truly a unicorn. 


Again for the most agree but he's going to need a QB more then he needs time to continue to develop to hit those numbers. That's the biggest, really only, concern I have with him right now is the team ends up liking Ridder well enough and he's stuck with some combo of Mariotta and eventually Ridder for next few years.

But yes he's a unicorn and only TE I can recall who I believe could switch to being an outside X receiver and be a legit NFL teams #1WR.  The only TE I can recall who if he declared he was a WR before the NFL draft would have been a high first round pick, perhaps as high as second WR off the board.

I only own Pitts in one tiny little dynasty league and it's actually one of my biggest concerns in dynasty right now, just knowing I could be looking at dealing with this guy for next 10+years(no exaggeration when you consider he's about 2-3 years younger then the age players like  Kittle/Kelce were before they ever played a down). I had 1.1 in a TE premium league last year and mulled the pick over as much as any pick I've ever mulled in my life. Over course of that week from NFL draft to our draft I probably changed my mind every few hours. Woke up that morning OTC and still was changing my mind. I went Najee, love him, but can't recall an example before were I picked a player in a rookie draft that is as good as Najee and yet the pick is still a huge mistake. Tried to package Najee with some other stuff to get Pitts  this off-season and the reply I got was in fact that he's untradeable. First time anyone has told me that in a long time and I totally got it.

 
IMHO he is. :shrug:

Huge advantage at TE for the next decade. I can always find a startable WR. Only have Pitts in one league and wouldn't part with him unless it was a king's ransom.
Although I agree that I have Pitts highly valued I think it is fairly easy to find a startable TE every year too.  The bar for a starting TE is not very high.  

The advantage that Pitts has over every other TE is that his floor is TE5-ish (think last year).  So even in a disappointing year he is top 5-ish for TE's.   That is where his value lays for me.  

 
Although I agree that I have Pitts highly valued I think it is fairly easy to find a startable TE every year too.  The bar for a starting TE is not very high.  

The advantage that Pitts has over every other TE is that his floor is TE5-ish (think last year).  So even in a disappointing year he is top 5-ish for TE's.   That is where his value lays for me.  
Y’all have convinced me that I got lucky my offer of Pitts for G. Wilson, ‘Myth + ‘23 mid 1st was rejected. 
:hifive:

 
Pitts is untradeable.  

To really dissect his worth, you would have to look at where he would go in 2022, 2023 and I think Pitts goes above everyone but Bijan Robinson.  Garrett Wilson and Friermuth - in the presence of Bijan Robinson, don't move the needle for me with positional scarcity.  I really don't see Pitts being on a bad team as a knock either.  They're going to be forced to throw to him, as much or more - he is a playmaker.  I've seen what Calvin Johnson did against double coverage and people playing him like he was a Special Teams gunner and believe Pitts is capable of all that.  

I do believe Pitts is ahead of Chase and Justin Jefferson - arguable at the value variance, but the dude is going to be a huge advantage in Dynasty Leagues.  When Pitts (Atlanta) finally gets some things in the right place - I think he is going to outscore the other top 5 TE's by an incredible margin and that is an advantage. 

That dude should have snap accepted, but got greedy. 

 
IMHO he is. :shrug:

Huge advantage at TE for the next decade. I can always find a startable WR. Only have Pitts in one league and wouldn't part with him unless it was a king's ransom.
I think maybe the gap between Pitts and the other TEs isn’t as great as you’re trying to make it. I like him and he’s surely the top dynasty TE but he’s at best only going to be the third highest scoring TE this season and could possibly not finish top 5 of Mariotta struggles. There’s some good TEs in the league and some to come. 
Chase and Jefferson have just as much Of an advantage over most teams starting WR1s than Pitts will have at TE.

 
I just made a run at Pitts in the 16 team PPR, IDP, TE-P, start 2 TE league I took over a squad in. Chubb owner has been trying to move him for a year, reportedly. 

We went back and forth a couple times.
 

We aren’t quite there, but I think if I offered Swift, Higbee, a 2023 1st, 2023 2nd, & a LB2-3 I might be able to get Chubb/Pitts, but man - that’s…a lot.

I hate to give up that ‘23 1st as it’ll likely be top 6, and I’m not that keen on getting 3 years older at RB1. I’m also not that big a Chubb guy in PPR. 

And not for nuthin,  It’s certainly possible I could get a QB with that ‘23 pick. I’ve got only Lance/Fields, and my team picked 1.01 last year.  If I miss a top 3 QB, I could be in position to take Michael Mayer with my 1st next year. While he’s not Pitts, I do expect him to be a very good pro. 

And tbh, in this format I’m not even sure he would accept that offer (though he suggested if my 1st was involved it would be a step in the right direction). 

Pitts might well be un-tradable both ways. I’ll never get enough selling him, and I don’t want to spend enough to buy him.

might take a run at ‘Muth for a 2nd & pieces instead. 

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
There’s no way Pitts is worth “far more” than Jefferson or Chase - that’s crazy hype.
I agree with @foxco. Teams who've had Kelce, and last year Andrews, have won a lot of leagues in recent years. A set and forget stud TE is a massive advantage. 

 
What is the consensus view on Travis Kelce?  I know older, but for a team in a win now (three straight 2nd place finishes) that is loaded at RB and WR would you trade Damien Harris (RB5 on this squad and has the 1.1 to take Hall) and either Bateman or Jeudy (WR4/5) for Kelce?  Thanks.
Do you think you can get Kelce for Harris/Bateman?

 
See, I feel like there’s a point where Pitts trade value vastly exceeds his real world value. And we may actually be at that point. His potential is worth more in assets than he can possibly deliver on that rebuilding ATL team.

MM / the rookie might be able to replicate last year’s value. Maybe a few more TDs, a few fewer receptions/yards.

but then what? ATL plays their way into a stroud or young? Now it’s a rookie QB on a still rebuilding team. So 2022 & 2023 likely won’t see an ascension of Pitts RW value. 

If I can get a player of 1st round value, and a couple 1sts, or a replacement TE + a ‘23 1st, can I really afford to turn that down as a rebuilding team? 

The Pitts value discussion is one of the more fascinating in fantasy. As a Pitts owner on a full rebuild obviously I have a vested interest in it. 

I still might try to move him while his value is so high, but I won’t settle for a counter like the one above. I’mma put him on the block. I’ll post up any subsequent offers I get. 
I 100% completely agree with all of this, and it brings up a very interesting point I think.  Pitts may well be 2 years or more away from being fully unleashed, meaning he'd be out of a bad offense and with his QB of the future.  If you're a contender, is he really the piece you want to go get to make a push now?  And if you're in the end of a rebuild and wanting to start making your push in '22 or '23, is Pitts ready to help you do it?  

I'm a rebuilder in the only league I have him in, and I would only sell him for an obvious overpay.  BUT, that's because I have other picks/draft capital to help build around him.  If you were a mediocre team and deciding to enter a rebuild I'd think he'd be the guy you'd have to sell to kick off your teardown.  And you wouldn't want to sell to a contender as he might very well be the piece that pushes them to the title and makes those firsts you'd acquire be very late.  

Damn you HSG got me thinking too hard on a Friday...

 
I 100% completely agree with all of this, and it brings up a very interesting point I think.  Pitts may well be 2 years or more away from being fully unleashed, meaning he'd be out of a bad offense and with his QB of the future.  If you're a contender, is he really the piece you want to go get to make a push now?  And if you're in the end of a rebuild and wanting to start making your push in '22 or '23, is Pitts ready to help you do it?  

I'm a rebuilder in the only league I have him in, and I would only sell him for an obvious overpay.  BUT, that's because I have other picks/draft capital to help build around him.  If you were a mediocre team and deciding to enter a rebuild I'd think he'd be the guy you'd have to sell to kick off your teardown.  And you wouldn't want to sell to a contender as he might very well be the piece that pushes them to the title and makes those firsts you'd acquire be very late.  

Damn you HSG got me thinking too hard on a Friday...
I’m full rebuild, 5 core players + 6x 2023 1sts & likely 2.01, so I feel like he’s a perfect foundational piece to bring me to contention by 2024, 2023 if I’m really, really lucky.

But trying to acquire him? Man - that’s been challenging. Owners want the moon & the stars, and like you said - is he really the guy who’s gonna put you over the top when you can get Hock, Kittle, ‘Muth cheaper for more immediate return? 

 
I could have made either trade, but in the end I preferred to keep Bateman so I completed the trade with Harris and Jeudy for Kelce.
Surprised he let Kelce go so easily.  Harris is in a crowded situation and Jeudy, who I happen to like, has been underwhelming.  Not really a knock on Jeudy but Kelce is still a difference maker.  Be interesting to hear the other owner's rationale, rebuilding; rather sell an year early than too late; etc.

 
I agree with @foxco. Teams who've had Kelce, and last year Andrews, have won a lot of leagues in recent years. A set and forget stud TE is a massive advantage. 
No doubt.  If it's a TE-premium league, and you can get 8 years of Pitts as a top-3 TE, that is worth way more than any WR.

...Jerry Rice is still retired, right?

 

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