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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)

I’m onboard with Dillon in one league.  I hope he stays healthy.
As with all players health is the key. NFL is RBBC now so finding talented backs that have not hit full stride is key. I think Dillon is just that. With Rodgers back the offense should continue to produce. He seems to have taken more of the carries pie and has proven to be a good pass catcher. He has the build and power of a good goal line option as well. Upside is good and still reasonable with Jones still “leading” the group.

 
Has anyone seen recent trades for Allen Robinson or Elijah Moore? Thinking about making offers but unsure of their values post-draft.
In 12 Team PPR 1QB Dynasty:

Allen Robinson and 2023 2nd Round pick (likely mid to early)

for

2022 1.06 and 2022 5.06

Owner receiving picks then moved up to 1.05 (using a 2023 3rd) to get Garret Wilson

 
What are owners with late 2022 1sts doing? Trading up in to the top 7? Or trade back for multiple 2nds/trade out for future picks/players. I think the 2nd tier is pretty deep going back to the mid 2nd range (and maybe deeper for IDP leagues). 

 
What are owners with late 2022 1sts doing? Trading up in to the top 7? Or trade back for multiple 2nds/trade out for future picks/players. I think the 2nd tier is pretty deep going back to the mid 2nd range (and maybe deeper for IDP leagues). 
Good question.

I see a big tier from 1.08 - 2.02 (1 QB) of Moore, Watson, Dotson, Pickens, Cook, White, and Bell.  As much as I'd like to trade out for future picks, its looking unlikely you'll find a partner.  The 23 first values are through the roof (way over-inflated IMO). 

Given the way people are treating this draft (eg the worst ever), I doubt you get much in a trade for a veteran.

Therefore I think I'll either be looking to stay put, or trying to trade down in this draft.  

 
What are owners with late 2022 1sts doing? Trading up in to the top 7? Or trade back for multiple 2nds/trade out for future picks/players. I think the 2nd tier is pretty deep going back to the mid 2nd range (and maybe deeper for IDP leagues). 
 I had tiers this way:

Tier 1:

Breece Hall

Tier 2:

Walker,  London, Wilson, Jameson and Burks

Tier 3:

Olave and Skyy Moore

Tier 4:

Pickens, James Cook

That took me to player 10 and to the difference for me in terms of tier 3 and tier 4 was so close I almost put them in the same tier.

I had 3 leagues with picks that went past those 10 players with picks at 11, 12 and 12. In those leagues I never made an attempt to move up and just hoped one of those 10 players would make it, was banking on Watson and/or a RB or two slipping into the mix. That's how it happened and I got one of my top 10 players at 11 or 12 in those 3 leagues.

Had a league with pick 9 that the cost to move to 6 was so minimal I paid it to draft Garrett Wilson.

IMO I just did not see a lot of reason to move up this year. Even if a WR like Pickens was two tiers away from that group of 4 WR's in tier 2 the difference was not that big to me in terms of their talent. If the cost was meager sure but nothing I was wanting to pay a lot to pull off.

Had I not got one of those 10 players at 11/12 I'd have looked at moving back in some of those leagues but not much.

 
What would it take for you Burrow or Herbert owners to move them? Team in my league has both so offered-- K Murray, Dav Adams, 10th pick in first and 2nd rounds  for either and the 5th pick in 2nd round and was turned down.

 
What would it take for you Burrow or Herbert owners to move them? Team in my league has both so offered-- K Murray, Dav Adams, 10th pick in first and 2nd rounds  for either and the 5th pick in 2nd round and was turned down.
Time to move on... did you reach out to him and ask if they hit reject accidentally?  

That is beyond fair, in fact... I might call it an overpay for those QB's.  Have you tried to get Mahomes or Josh Allen for that?

 
What are owners with late 2022 1sts doing? Trading up in to the top 7? Or trade back for multiple 2nds/trade out for future picks/players. I think the 2nd tier is pretty deep going back to the mid 2nd range (and maybe deeper for IDP leagues). 
 I had tiers this way:

Tier 1:

Breece Hall

Tier 2:

Walker,  London, Wilson, Jameson and Burks

Tier 3:

Olave and Skyy Moore

Tier 4:

Pickens, James Cook

That took me to player 10 and to the difference for me in terms of tier 3 and tier 4 was so close I almost put them in the same tier.

I had 3 leagues with picks that went past those 10 players with picks at 11, 12 and 12. In those leagues I never made an attempt to move up and just hoped one of those 10 players would make it, was banking on Watson and/or a RB or two slipping into the mix. That's how it happened and I got one of my top 10 players at 11 or 12 in those 3 leagues.

Had a league with pick 9 that the cost to move to 6 was so minimal I paid it to draft Garrett Wilson.

IMO I just did not see a lot of reason to move up this year. Even if a WR like Pickens was two tiers away from that group of 4 WR's in tier 2 the difference was not that big to me in terms of their talent. If the cost was meager sure but nothing I was wanting to pay a lot to pull off.

Had I not got one of those 10 players at 11/12 I'd have looked at moving back in some of those leagues but not much.
I've got the 1.10 as well... but was able to trade for another 1st rounder for next year.

the draft is underway- Cook and Watson went a little earlier than expected, leaving: 

Skyy, Dotson, Pickens, R White (RB) available to me.

I could use RB help, but I don't know that guys like White, Spiller, Pierce are worthwhile at the 1.10 (and hoping my 2nd 2023 1st is a high pick, given the team it came from), even though I know none of them will be left at the 2.10 when I pick next.

am I overthinking Skyy as the obvious choice here...? WR is a relative strength for me (one of DHop, Cooks, Claypool is my likely WR 3)

 
What would it take for you Burrow or Herbert owners to move them? Team in my league has both so offered-- K Murray, Dav Adams, 10th pick in first and 2nd rounds  for either and the 5th pick in 2nd round and was turned down.
That should have gotten it done. But some folks value the player more than a fair value offer for the player.  I turned down a very fair offer for Tee Higgins, because I really like Tee Higgins, so I get it. 

 
I've got the 1.10 as well... but was able to trade for another 1st rounder for next year.

the draft is underway- Cook and Watson went a little earlier than expected, leaving: 

Skyy, Dotson, Pickens, R White (RB) available to me.

I could use RB help, but I don't know that guys like White, Spiller, Pierce are worthwhile at the 1.10 (and hoping my 2nd 2023 1st is a high pick, given the team it came from), even though I know none of them will be left at the 2.10 when I pick next.

am I overthinking Skyy as the obvious choice here...? WR is a relative strength for me (one of DHop, Cooks, Claypool is my likely WR 3)
I like Pierce.

 
What are owners with late 2022 1sts doing? Trading up in to the top 7? Or trade back for multiple 2nds/trade out for future picks/players. I think the 2nd tier is pretty deep going back to the mid 2nd range (and maybe deeper for IDP leagues). 
I had 1.11 in a 14 team SF (start 8). Traded it for Dalton Schultz + 3.01 (Hassan Haskins). I've been streaming TE for 2 years. With this class, I figured having a starting quality TE was a better chance at getting a starter than the pick (R White, Cook, Watson, Pickens available). 1.11 was used on Willis.

 
What are owners with late 2022 1sts doing? Trading up in to the top 7? Or trade back for multiple 2nds/trade out for future picks/players. I think the 2nd tier is pretty deep going back to the mid 2nd range (and maybe deeper for IDP leagues). 


Tricky one. I suppose a lot depends on how you got the pick. If it's your own pick, then (assuming that Hall/Walker/London/Wilson/Williams/Burks/Olave have gone in some order) if #8 I'd probably just take Moore regardless of format, then if I had lower I'd be thinking that I was in a position to be very close to winning last season, and there's nobody on the board that can immediately improve my starting lineup, so I'd actively shop the pick to drop down and hope someone has fallen in love with Cook, Watson, Dotson etc (chuck in Pickett and maybe other QBs in superflex, maybe McBride in TE premium) and will let us trade down, where we can either get an additional dart throw in rounds 2/3, an additional 2023 pick, or some piece of their team that we like, either with their second rounder or just straight up.

If, however, our team sucks and we've got the pick through trading, then if our natural first rounder isn't the 1.01, I'd try if at all possible to trade the two first to get two picks in the top 7

 
Time to move on... did you reach out to him and ask if they hit reject accidentally?  

That is beyond fair, in fact... I might call it an overpay for those QB's.  Have you tried to get Mahomes or Josh Allen for that?
This was my second offer . Originally offered Murray,Adams ,my 2nd rounder for either and swap 1sts. Haven't tried for Allen/ Mahomes but that's not a bad idea.

 
This was my second offer . Originally offered Murray,Adams ,my 2nd rounder for either and swap 1sts. Haven't tried for Allen/ Mahomes but that's not a bad idea.
If I was a Mahomes or Allen owner, I would strongly consider what are you offering.  From your side, I might exclude one of the picks coming back 1.10 or 2.10 in the original offer.

Just ran your original trade through keeptradecut and the Herbert side is winning by quite a bit.  The trade as is, says it is acceptable with your side still losing by the difference of a 3rd round pick.  Obviously, trade calcs aren't gospel but still a pretty good benchmark.  

 
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What are owners with late 2022 1sts doing? Trading up in to the top 7? Or trade back for multiple 2nds/trade out for future picks/players. I think the 2nd tier is pretty deep going back to the mid 2nd range (and maybe deeper for IDP leagues). 
I traded the 1.09 for a 24 first from a bad team with no picks next year. 

I had the 2, 6 and 9. My cut off point was 1.08. Seemed logical to kick it down the line and hope its higher. I couldn't get a 23 first for it, the hype is too strong. 

Several players will be really good from that late 1st, early to mid 2nd range but I didn't fancy my chances of picking them. All guys who looked roughly the same. 

 
What would it take for you Burrow or Herbert owners to move them? Team in my league has both so offered-- K Murray, Dav Adams, 10th pick in first and 2nd rounds  for either and the 5th pick in 2nd round and was turned down.
I tried for Burrow and the owner is apparently crazy.  Guy wanted Diggs, 2023 2nd, Mac Jones, and Kittle for Burrow. I didn't even bother rejecting the trade. Just ignored it and moved on.  He also has Daq, so I thought we could work out a reasonable deal.  Guess not. 

 
I tried for Burrow and the owner is apparently crazy.  Guy wanted Diggs, 2023 2nd, Mac Jones, and Kittle for Burrow. I didn't even bother rejecting the trade. Just ignored it and moved on.  He also has Daq, so I thought we could work out a reasonable deal.  Guess not. 
This has got to be superflex, right? Didn’t see mention of format in the original post. 

 
No bleepin way. 
So irritating. Now, I'll never even look at a trade proposed from this dude again. I do my best to always look at both teams needs and strengths to see if a trade makes sense. Then, I'll usually run it through a trade calculator to make sure my bias isn't clouding my judgment and I'm not offering a bad trade. I hate coming across like I'm trying to scam a person.  

 
So irritating. Now, I'll never even look at a trade proposed from this dude again. I do my best to always look at both teams needs and strengths to see if a trade makes sense. Then, I'll usually run it through a trade calculator to make sure my bias isn't clouding my judgment and I'm not offering a bad trade. I hate coming across like I'm trying to scam a person.  
You’re not the one trying to scam in this case :)  

 
Tricky one. I suppose a lot depends on how you got the pick. If it's your own pick, then (assuming that Hall/Walker/London/Wilson/Williams/Burks/Olave have gone in some order) if #8 I'd probably just take Moore regardless of format, then if I had lower I'd be thinking that I was in a position to be very close to winning last season, and there's nobody on the board that can immediately improve my starting lineup, so I'd actively shop the pick to drop down and hope someone has fallen in love with Cook, Watson, Dotson etc (chuck in Pickett and maybe other QBs in superflex, maybe McBride in TE premium) and will let us trade down, where we can either get an additional dart throw in rounds 2/3, an additional 2023 pick, or some piece of their team that we like, either with their second rounder or just straight up.

If, however, our team sucks and we've got the pick through trading, then if our natural first rounder isn't the 1.01, I'd try if at all possible to trade the two first to get two picks in the top 7


My own pick is the 1.01 (team actually isn't that bad) and I have the 1.09 and 1.11 through trades. I am thinking I trade up to the top 7 from 1.09 and trade back from 1.11 to the 2nd to acquire more assets.

Thanks to all who replied for the good discussion. 

 
Looking to get younger at WR, what sort of 2023 pick should I be able to get for each of the following - Deandre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans? Probably wanting to get rid of the first two as opposed to Evans at least for now but no idea if I'm overvaluing them with the suspension/QB issues respectively
Hopkins is a guy that you need to hold until after his suspension.  He will be the type of player a contender will want to put him over the top mid season and that is your best chance to get optimal value.  Wait until he has his first big game and then shop him to a WR needy contender.  

 
I've got the 1.10 as well... but was able to trade for another 1st rounder for next year.

the draft is underway- Cook and Watson went a little earlier than expected, leaving: 

Skyy, Dotson, Pickens, R White (RB) available to me.

I could use RB help, but I don't know that guys like White, Spiller, Pierce are worthwhile at the 1.10 (and hoping my 2nd 2023 1st is a high pick, given the team it came from), even though I know none of them will be left at the 2.10 when I pick next.

am I overthinking Skyy as the obvious choice here...? WR is a relative strength for me (one of DHop, Cooks, Claypool is my likely WR 3)
Don't worry about what you need.  Draft the best player available.  The key is to hit on rookie picks and the best way to do that is to take the player you think has the best chance of succeeding regardless of position.  I would have Skyy as the top of those listed (Skyy, Dotson, Pickens, R. White, Spiller, Pierce).

 
Looking to get younger at WR, what sort of 2023 pick should I be able to get for each of the following - Deandre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans? Probably wanting to get rid of the first two as opposed to Evans at least for now but no idea if I'm overvaluing them with the suspension/QB issues respectively


The only one here with 1st rounder value is Mike Evans.  I think the QB situation in Seattle has made Tyler Lockett worthless, but that could change... just not anyone jumping at his services with all the unknowns out there.  DeAndre Hopkins could let you a late 1st, possibly.  As @Gally said - the suspension is going to need to run its' course first. 

 
Lockett was traded for a 2023 2nd in my non-ppr league a few days ago. Thought it was a bit much in non-ppr becuz I am also of the opinion he may be worthless now unless he gets traded mid-season.

 
What's a reasonable price for Saquon Barkley? I put a few of my RBs on the block for offers and so far have received and declined these for Barkley, both of which seem absurdly light (and both DTC and KTC sites agree)

2023 2nd

Marlon Mack + 2023 3rd

 
What's a reasonable price for Saquon Barkley? I put a few of my RBs on the block for offers and so far have received and declined these for Barkley, both of which seem absurdly light (and both DTC and KTC sites agree)

2023 2nd

Marlon Mack + 2023 3rd


Those are very light. You should get at least a 2023 first for Barkley, and you should also get a sweetener added to it if it looks to be like a late first. And that's for starters, really. 

 
What's a reasonable price for Saquon Barkley? I put a few of my RBs on the block for offers and so far have received and declined these for Barkley, both of which seem absurdly light (and both DTC and KTC sites agree)

2023 2nd

Marlon Mack + 2023 3rd
I think there's a pretty large disparity between what Saquon owners WANT and what people are willing to trade for him.  If I'm going after him, I'd probably give a 2023 low 1st / high 2nd.  His situation and health probably warrant in that range.  I think both offers thrown your way are pretty light, but that seems to be the trend with players up on the block.  Maybe it's a starting point for the other owner?  Also, be cognizant of the fact that a high 2nd isn't THAT MUCH lower value than a low 1st.  Sometimes just the idea of a 1st round pick vs a 2nd round pick is off-putting.

 
I think there's a pretty large disparity between what Saquon owners WANT and what people are willing to trade for him.  If I'm going after him, I'd probably give a 2023 low 1st / high 2nd.  His situation and health probably warrant in that range.  I think both offers thrown your way are pretty light, but that seems to be the trend with players up on the block.  Maybe it's a starting point for the other owner?  Also, be cognizant of the fact that a high 2nd isn't THAT MUCH lower value than a low 1st.  Sometimes just the idea of a 1st round pick vs a 2nd round pick is off-putting.
But you don't know what the future pick is going to be like. He could have finished sixth this year and has a range of potential outcomes from last to winning it if things break right. You sort of have to assume mediocrity and that the second pick means twelve spots behind the one from a first rounder. I mean worst case scenario is that you take the second, the guy wins it all, and you're stuck with the 2.12. Then you're hosed. 

 
I think there's a pretty large disparity between what Saquon owners WANT and what people are willing to trade for him.  If I'm going after him, I'd probably give a 2023 low 1st / high 2nd.  His situation and health probably warrant in that range.  I think both offers thrown your way are pretty light, but that seems to be the trend with players up on the block.  Maybe it's a starting point for the other owner?  Also, be cognizant of the fact that a high 2nd isn't THAT MUCH lower value than a low 1st.  Sometimes just the idea of a 1st round pick vs a 2nd round pick is off-putting.
Granted, especially with his health issues the last two years.  

I made a different RB trade yesterday and have taken Saquon off the trade block, so I'm just going to roll with him and hope for better health, improved O-line and a better coaching from the Daboll regime

 
But you don't know what the future pick is going to be like. He could have finished sixth this year and has a range of potential outcomes from last to winning it if things break right. You sort of have to assume mediocrity and that the second pick means twelve spots behind the one from a first rounder. I mean worst case scenario is that you take the second, the guy wins it all, and you're stuck with the 2.12. Then you're hosed. 
Yeah unless somebody would offer a 2nd from a team that I'm pretty sure is going to stink and/or tank, I'd want a first rounder.

 
I think there's a pretty large disparity between what Saquon owners WANT and what people are willing to trade for him.  If I'm going after him, I'd probably give a 2023 low 1st / high 2nd.  His situation and health probably warrant in that range.  I think both offers thrown your way are pretty light, but that seems to be the trend with players up on the block.  Maybe it's a starting point for the other owner?  Also, be cognizant of the fact that a high 2nd isn't THAT MUCH lower value than a low 1st.  Sometimes just the idea of a 1st round pick vs a 2nd round pick is off-putting.
That is definitely the case with any player that meets Barkley's profile.  The owner wants value for him being 80% (at least) of his ceiling and the buyer wants to pay his floor price.................and Barkley has a a room with a 20 foot vaulted ceiling.   

The offers that were sent are laughable.  No way it's even close to enough to give him up.  As other's have said I think a mid 2023 1st plus is a proper price.  It factors in some risk and isn't his ceiling price.  

 
Yeah unless somebody would offer a 2nd from a team that I'm pretty sure is going to stink and/or tank, I'd want a first rounder.


A guaranteed early 2nd would interest you if you had Saquon?

Barkley still has an ADP around the 2-3 round turn in startups.  An early 2nd in startups is around 10th round value.

That shouldn't be close.

 
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Another trade coming in hot from a different owner. He gives AJ Brown, Elijah Mitchell, and a 2023 3rd. I give Jamaar Chase and a 2023 2nd. I hate these people. 
Tell him when you die you have it in your will your wife or kids who take over your team will not trade Chase for anything less than 8 1st round picks. Problem solved. ;)  

 
What's a reasonable price for Saquon Barkley? I put a few of my RBs on the block for offers and so far have received and declined these for Barkley, both of which seem absurdly light (and both DTC and KTC sites agree)

2023 2nd

Marlon Mack + 2023 3rd


For reference, in a non-PPR 14 teamer, I traded Barkley for the 1.09 and 2.03 this year and a 2023 1st and 2nd. Most owners in this league are heavily into gathering RBs, which makes sense since the setup is non-PPR start 1-4 RBs and 1-4 WR/TE so RBs are a bit overvalued, but I decided I couldn't pass up that offer.

I don't realistically think that most owners would give that for Barkley, but the team trading for him saw him as likely a final piece to put him into conversation as the top, or at least top 2 team heading into the season, so he is banking on those 2023 picks being late.

 
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A guaranteed early 2nd would interest you if you had Saquon?

Barkley still has an ADP around the 2-3 round turn in startups.  An early 2nd in startups is around 10 round value.

That shouldn't be close.
I was more referencing the 1st vs 2nd.  I don't think I'd bite on an early 2nd alone.

KeepTradeCut rates him between a mid- and late 2023 first, while DynastyTradeCalculator has him worth more than a mid-first.

 

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