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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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robb
Footballguy
JoeJoe: I agree that even in a rebuild, you need to look at your roster THIS YEAR as this is part of your "rebuild". I would take the approach that Hurt is >> than Fields......and you get a "free" 1.01 to either keep and get a RB this year or....trade and see what you can get. But.....I would try and get that offer back and accept!
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
I don’t know this high but in SF, I will take the chance to have top 5 QB. Hurts might not even have job by end of week 6. Hall is good but he is not generational. I own Lance as my QB3 in 15 team SF league and this is quick reject. But only need 1 RB and weakest position but Barkley, Dobbins, Zek, Dillon will suffice.I think Lance will be more valuable than MaHomes in two years
Blick
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I watched a podcast this morning where he said Seahawk RBs haven't gotten many receptions over the years. The most receptions is 37 by a RB. Lynch (once) and Carson (twice) For that reason I'm leery of Walker in Seattle. Plus they downgraded at QB and upgraded at TE.
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So I wasn’t able to get the deal done. I went back and told him I’d accept around 5 hours later but he wasn’t interested anymore. I had it all worked all with a separate leaguemate that when I acquired the 1.01 I was going to immediately trade it to him for his 2023 1st(it’ll be top 3, there’s a clear 3 teams tanking and he and I are both one of them.)JoeJoe88 said:
Oh well. Here’s to hoping it’s a blessing in disguise. Hopefully Lance turns out to be as good as @JohnnyUbelieves
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't think Russ checked down very much. I also don't think Lock does either. He was like third from the bottom in passes completed to backs while he started or some such stat like that.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Where are we valuing Zach Wilson these days in Superflex? Seems like the Jets are building around him, but man he didn't show a whole lot of pro poise as a rookie.
Pwingles
Footballguy
A rebuild or a team that is one or two solid pieces away?
Complete rebuild, taking a non pass catching (at least narrative wise) RB there is awful. Youre not competing for 2-3 seasons if complete tear down, might as well just trade the pick for as much as you can get.
jabarony
Footballguy
I think there’s a place for Walker, or similar, to be a good pick. Best case for a such a back is Derrick Henry. Not bad at all. You won’t hit CMC numbers of course, but I wouldn’t call it awful.
Also there’s the possibility that Carrol leaves and Seattle starts throwing to the RBs more. That’s another path to value if you like the player’s talent.
And one more thing - if it’s Jamar Chase sitting there as an option, yes choosing the suspect RB for your rebuild may be awful. Not sure that there is a “sure thing” alternative this year at WR. Though I like all of the WRs this year to some degree, I would say all of them could bust.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
During the last five weeks he looked very much competent and much more effective than earlier in the season. The first half he did look dreadful though.
He's bulked up a lot this offseason and he's now behind one of the better o-lines in the league and has some nice players at the skill positions. Not sure if he succeeds but we'll likely know early in the season.
Pwingles
Footballguy
TBH its really just about the fact that if youre in a total rebuild that isnt going to compete soon, the pick is wasted most likely. RBs value in return is likely to go down a ton by then, even if he was good. Also, by the time youre ready to compete, he might be toast, whereas if one of these wr hits, they will still be just hitting their prime at that point.
So now youve invested the 1.01 in a guy who has likely lost value and might be making his way off your roster at this point. Instead of trading out, or taking the consensus best player and then trading that guy for more assets. Just seems bad to me in a total rebuild.
Obv it might not be a total rebuild. If you are just 1 or 2 solid pieces away, by all means, take your guy and good luck, even tho i think its hall
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I disagree with the timelines here. A total rebuild isn't 5 years and RB shelf life isn't 1 year.
To me, planning on anything more than 2 years for a total rebuild in FF is crazy. I've seen way too many teams that are the worst you could possibly imagine and would never compete any time soon that were competing for a title in 1 year, much less 2. The dynasty landscape changes SO much from year to year.
And on the RBs, I remember commenting on here more than a decade ago when people started treating RBs as older and older at a younger and younger age, that we would one day get to the point where what, 24 was old? 22? Now we're here talking about if 20 year old Breece Hall is too old to be drafted by this team.
I think anyone that drafted Jonathan Taylor 2 years ago for their rebuild is doing just fine now.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Where did you read 1 year and 5 years?
Also, are we pretending that Walker = JT as a prospect?
You're not wrong tho, quick rebuilds can happen, theyre just hard to pull off and even harder if youre not super actively going for it.
So in reality, most complete tear downs take 2 years, maybe more if youre unlucky. So what value does having Najee over pitts give you if youre in this spot with your roster? Assuming you didnt draft him to move him for assets? Thats my only point really. Wr (if theyre good) will still be good when you get to the point of competing usually. RBs (even if theyre good) usually see a decline in production, value or both by then.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Is Devante Parker worth a mid/late round pick in a rookie/FA draft? Like rd 4-5-6? He'll miss X games a year, but does he still have any juice left when healthy, in that offense?
titusbramble
Footballguy
I've not looked that far down in rookie rankings at this stage, but I can't see him having any particular value over replacement in that offence and would probably just take a flier on rookies throughout. Maybe if you're really hurting at WR (maybe you're a Ridley/Hopkins/Ruggs sort of team?) it might be a different question but I think there's got to be at least 40 senior receivers that will produce more than Parker when healthy even discounting what any of the rookies might be able to do
Russ, Mahomes, Watson are all fairly similar in this aspect IMO. Their running ability allows them to scramble and make something out of nothing especially when flushed from the pocket, but that leads to them rarely ever taking the checkdown option for better or worse.
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I don't think it's far off, Bloom said as much in his post-draft 100 last year as well. If Lance develops into a good QB, he's going to be very valuable in that Shanahan system.I'll probably have to eat crow, but like someone said, it is spicy
I think Lance will be more valuable than MaHomes in two years
It's possible and if season is over and Lance has not ascended into at least the Kyler, Lamar, no off field concern of Watson type of value then my expectations would have fallen short.
Jayded
Footballguy
I'm curious how you all choose to value rookies or non-rookies in supplemental drafts when you have one or more players on the same team already?
With our dynasty draft coming up, I have a few assets on the same team and then there are some high rookies up for draft that I am uncertain how to weight them relative to others because of that nuance.
Intentionally not my players for example to avoid being an Assistant Coach question : If you already owned Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, does that change the way you value drafting a player like Skyy Moore vs. someone like Jameson Williams? If you had Moore rated personally higher than Williams, do you still take him or do you factor in "too much centralized" ownership and how much would you discount Moore if so?
With our dynasty draft coming up, I have a few assets on the same team and then there are some high rookies up for draft that I am uncertain how to weight them relative to others because of that nuance.
Intentionally not my players for example to avoid being an Assistant Coach question : If you already owned Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, does that change the way you value drafting a player like Skyy Moore vs. someone like Jameson Williams? If you had Moore rated personally higher than Williams, do you still take him or do you factor in "too much centralized" ownership and how much would you discount Moore if so?
My recommendation would to put your players in tiers, use it to settle tiebreakers or close calls inside of a tier, but don't allow yourself to take a player from a lower tier because of it.
Personally I'm a fan of QB hookups even when it's not best ball, especially when it's a dynamic offense that can support multiple pass catching options. If Skyy Moore ends up being good I don't think you'll mind you already own Mahomes and Kelce. So again to me if you for sure have Skyy rated higher I'd take him.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I thought he looked like he had good footwork and mechanics even early in the season. He has a cannon. My read last year was that he looked rushed all the time. Like the game never slowed down for him. Well, that is pretty common for rookie QBs. They often make a big year 2 leap. If he can get the game to slow down for him I like his outlook. I am rooting for him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes - he looked like he knew what he wanted to do early in the season but panicked a bit causing him to be inaccurate and miss even short dump offs. By season's end he had much more command of the offense and the game "slowed down" for him.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Christian Kirk value in terms of a 2022 draft pick. What would you give if you needed some WR help/depth?
What would you sell for if you were deep at WR?
What would you sell for if you were deep at WR?
The goal of a rookie draft is to take players that will become multi year starters for you. The best way to accomplish that is to take the players you have ranked highest based on whatever research you do. Put together a combined draft board and take the guy you have the highest when your pick comes up.
Bottom line is that taking a lesser player because he is in a position of need or because you already have someone from that team lessens your chance of hitting. If the player doesn't hit what good does he do for you? Just take the guy you have rated highest. That gives you the best chance to succeed.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I will agree with you, but add the caveat that I said two years, not this season, but yes, he has to show promise this year if he is the starter.
I caught your caveat, I was just speaking for what my own expectations are for him. Not sure were I said it on these forums but somewhere around here I said a few weeks ago this is the lowest buying opportunity people will have for Lance in a long time.
Jayded
Footballguy
Fair, and I used probably a semi-poor comparison. I'm mostly curious this year as I'll likely be drafting a WR high. Again not my guys, but if I had JuJu (Cheifs) how that impacts taking Skyy Moore since they play the same position and I have to worry about them possibly eating away at each other's opportunities.
Sounds like the general consensus is if you like a player more, it shouldn't completely matter if you have assets on that team unless you value them equal and that could be a tie breaker. I seem to find myself with a lot of shares of a few teams and naturally makes me nervous (less about byes, but more about eggs and baskets, etc.)
The bold is exactly right. I would use it as a tie breaker (either way - some people like stacks and others don't) but not to draft someone I viewed lesser.
joey
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Just for curiosity-sake, where does the community rate Breece Hall with the 2023 RB prospects?
I will give my 2 cents but am interested what everyone thinks.
Hall ends up in New York with a young, dynamic passer with good arm strength and the team seams committed to building the offense (decent WRs). He is clearly the #1 pick in Dynasty Rookie Drafts but what is the situation you see guys like Bijan, Gibbs, Evans, Tucker being drafted in that would catapult them, etc.?
I guess, I think Hall went to a great spot and am unsure what would be better and who is better than him athletically?
I will give my 2 cents but am interested what everyone thinks.
Hall ends up in New York with a young, dynamic passer with good arm strength and the team seams committed to building the offense (decent WRs). He is clearly the #1 pick in Dynasty Rookie Drafts but what is the situation you see guys like Bijan, Gibbs, Evans, Tucker being drafted in that would catapult them, etc.?
I guess, I think Hall went to a great spot and am unsure what would be better and who is better than him athletically?
sheerterror
Footballguy
I moved Parker in 2 diff leagues right around this time last year. It's a year later, but his value is probably roughly the same by my estimate. In one league, I swapped him for Laviska (was thrilled at the time, now I think LS is in purgatory) and in another, I moved him for picks 4.2 (while OTC) and 4.6 - yield was Nico Collins and R. Stevenson.
I would disagree quite a bit with the bolded. I think moving to NE with a solid QB that needed a go to guy with a coach that can utilize his strengths increases his value quite a bit over last year. I really like Parker and would have been willing to give up a mid 2nd rookie pick for him. Unfortunately in my league the guy wanted a 1st rounder so it was a non starter.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Is he the “go to” guy there? Or is Agholor? Or is Meyers? Or is Bourne?
He surely has upside over the last few years but it’s far from a given - I’d pay a second as well, and like you, would rather roll the dice on a first round rookie.
I think Parker is better than all those and should be the go to guy. I would expect that to happen which is why I would be willing to take the chance with a 2nd but since NE sometimes doesn't do what FF wants them to do there is risk which is why I wouldn't do a 1st.
Sounds like we are in agreement.
You might could talk me into the 2022 1.09 or 1.10, but I’m holding all 2023 1sts over him personally.
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sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
That sounds harsh, but I checked mine and that's also where I landed. Fairly close to my 9th and 10th of Dotson and Alec Pierce, who I currently have slotted at 2.2 & 2.5, but I think I would rather have the shiny toy.
Part of me also prefers Metchie and David Bell (end of my 2nd round), but I think you have to go Kirk at that point.
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