Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)

[Crippler]

The issue for me is too fold. 
 

1. Don’t like runaway favourite words. These are guys that steamroll the league for a reason. Does Hall or WR make a big upgrade to his roster now and the future. Because while I like the top 9 of this draft(10 in SF), I dont see a guy like Chase, Taylor etc in the lot. Maybe best to let him just draft and keep out of 23. Age his roster. 
 

2. Presumptive thoughts. Never works in most cases. I do future mocks all the time and every year, there is big surprises. In fact every year our division winners do a draft for division mates and very close to mock. And other than our top 4, the last 2 spots are never guessed and the bottom 4 is also always wrong. One team always disappoints and 1 team always surprises. Injuries being so huge and so unpredictable. I know my league our top 3 steamrolls league. 4 years and every year 1-2-3. Team 4 has been team 4 for 4 years straight. One team allowed to get into drafts. Still a force and still young. One has had all in, all the time. Starting to age. Other in between but picking late has lead to roster domination decrease. Team 4 has tried both methods and still team 4. I assume the same for 5th year. But the rest, who knows. Some look good but when a few teams are dominant and usually deep, an injury or 2 can really make the rest of the league, so unknown. This was how a team that looked like easy bottom 3 team a year ago finished pick 9. He had tons of key backups.. just drafted 4th this year again. 

 

[zaner75]

Not much difference between 1QB and Superflex rookie drafts this year. I have Hall at 1.01 followed by a tier break. The next tier is 1 RB, 8 WR and 1 QB (in SF). Some may have a tier break between WRs but, to me, it's a grab-bag where the guy at 8 may be just as good as the guy at 2.

 

[Boston]

Not much difference between 1QB and Superflex rookie drafts this year. I have Hall at 1.01 followed by a tier break. The next tier is 1 RB, 8 WR and 1 QB (in SF). Some may have a tier break between WRs but, to me, it's a grab-bag where the guy at 8 may be just as good as the guy at 2.

The lack of QBs is a real killer for those with multiple 1st round picks in SF...really hurts the drafting and trading options.

 

[JohnnyU]

Bad year to be in SF for some (not me), because some of these dud QBs are going to be taken too early.  Good for those that are set at QB because good players will drop.

 

[beef]

SF = you get to start 2 QBs, not have to, right?  Otherwise it'd just be 2QB league.  Is that the SF rule you all use?

 

[JoeJoe88]

SF = you get to start 2 QBs, not have to, right?  Otherwise it'd just be 2QB league.  Is that the SF rule you all use?

Correct. 

 

[smbkrypt24]

The lack of QBs is a real killer for those with multiple 1st round picks in SF...really hurts the drafting and trading options.

I agree. I had a lot of 2nd round picks I gave up before the NFL draft.  If I held onto those a lot of players would have been pushed down my list due to the QBs not being drafted high.

 

[menobrown]

In one of my FFPC leagues, the guy with the 1.1 (and run away favorite to win it all again this year) put his 1.1 pick on the block. I have 3 2023 picks and I know most of this board believe the 2023 draft will be great, but I’m wonder what folks think of a likely mid-2023 1st vs the known quantity of the 1.1 this year. 

I'd just tell you that yesterday in a FFPC league of mine someone gave 1.2 and a 2023 third for a 2023 #1 and in fact the team that gave up the 2023 first  had 3 first round picks in 2023. Hard to say were their pick would be,  most would probably value as likely mid but makeup of his team and FFPC format leads me to say his pick is most likely between 1-10 so could be almost anywhere.

Personally I'd not have given 1.2 for that first round pick. I do not agree that mid first in next years draft trumps 1.1 in this years draft.

 

[smbkrypt24]

I'd just tell you that yesterday in a FFPC league of mine someone gave 1.2 and a 2023 third for a 2023 #1 and in fact the team that gave up the 2023 first  had 3 first round picks in 2023. Hard to say were their pick would be,  most would probably value as likely mid but makeup of his team and FFPC format leads me to say his pick is most likely between 1-10 so could be almost anywhere.

Personally I'd not have given 1.2 for that first round pick. I do not agree that mid first in next years draft trumps 1.1 in this years draft.

I am sitting on 1.4 and have been thinking of offering it for 2023 1st, but I like the top 4 a lot so think I will just hold and draft.

 

[beef]

2023 has a lot of pressure to not just produce from a draft, but succeed from a fantasy standpoint.  Might have to start shopping my 2023 picks.

 

[Rockchild]

2023 has a lot of pressure to not just produce from a draft, but succeed from a fantasy standpoint.  Might have to start shopping my 2023 picks.

Yeah, good idea. See if you can pick up a nice asset or two that can help this year and beyond. I like to do this when I can. I miss out on good players sometimes but it's nice getting a nice asset though. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

For all the talk about this being a terrible draft class, NFL draft capital certainly doesn't seem to agree, at least in 1qb leagues.

We had two RBs go in what is now probably considered a premium position for RBs.  Early 2nd round right where guys like JT and Nick Chubb went, and Hall I think is a somewhat comparable prospect to those ones.

Then the WRs were nuts.  Six first round WRs including 4 in the top 16, plus two more in the early 2nd to premium landing spots.

I realize some things have changed with the position in regards to teams trying to save money at the position, but that is still extremely notable.  Remember 2019 was supposed to be a pretty good WR year and the first one came off the board at 25 overall with only 2 in the first round total.

The last time I remember people being so down on a class trading picks as early as 1.04 for future 1sts, and unable to give away picks in the 1.08+ range was 2016 and this class is nothing like that one.  Remember that year guys like Booker and Dixon who were FOURTH ROUND nfl picks were going in the top 10 of rookie drafts.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

For all the talk about this being a terrible draft class, NFL draft capital certainly doesn't seem to agree, at least in 1qb leagues.

We had two RBs go in what is now probably considered a premium position for RBs.  Early 2nd round right where guys like JT and Nick Chubb went, and Hall I think is a somewhat comparable prospect to those ones.

Then the WRs were nuts.  Six first round WRs including 4 in the top 16, plus two more in the early 2nd to premium landing spots.

I realize some things have changed with the position in regards to teams trying to save money at the position, but that is still extremely notable.  Remember 2019 was supposed to be a pretty good WR year and the first one came off the board at 25 overall with only 2 in the first round total.

The last time I remember people being so down on a class trading picks as early as 1.04 for future 1sts, and unable to give away picks in the 1.08+ range was 2016 and this class is nothing like that one.  Remember that year guys like Booker and Dixon who were FOURTH ROUND nfl picks were going in the top 10 of rookie drafts.

I agree. This rookie class has been blasted all off-season but in start 1QB leagues it’s a more than solid class. Also Cook to the Bills with pretty good draft capital.

Even the lower drafted RBs ended up in interesting situations- some one injury or one underwhelming veteran away from starting in a few cases. The second round in rookie drafts will yield some value. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

For all the talk about this being a terrible draft class, NFL draft capital certainly doesn't seem to agree, at least in 1qb leagues.

We had two RBs go in what is now probably considered a premium position for RBs.  Early 2nd round right where guys like JT and Nick Chubb went, and Hall I think is a somewhat comparable prospect to those ones.

Then the WRs were nuts.  Six first round WRs including 4 in the top 16, plus two more in the early 2nd to premium landing spots.

I realize some things have changed with the position in regards to teams trying to save money at the position, but that is still extremely notable.  Remember 2019 was supposed to be a pretty good WR year and the first one came off the board at 25 overall with only 2 in the first round total.

The last time I remember people being so down on a class trading picks as early as 1.04 for future 1sts, and unable to give away picks in the 1.08+ range was 2016 and this class is nothing like that one.  Remember that year guys like Booker and Dixon who were FOURTH ROUND nfl picks were going in the top 10 of rookie drafts.

All fair.

Counterpoint: the NFL can only draft the players in front of them.

QB was actually pretty weak, and I’m still not sure if Pickett would be a 1st round pick had the Steelers not taken him.

WR was always expected to be the strength of this class, but at the same time it was also a perfect storm of teams in need of WR help, and teams giving WR ridiculous contracts. See: AJB getting $100M during the draft, Davonte Adams, Kirk, etc. 

I expect a similar early run on top WR next year, as even more top stars demand more and more $.  Teams will have no choice but to get young/cheap through the draft.

RB was basically 2-deep, and then a whole lot of potential role players, with a few upside guys no doubt. But next year has a couple of potentially “generational talents”, as good or better than Hall, and another 4-5 considered superior to, or at least on par with Walker. 

I still think this was a relatively weak draft class, though it did have more depth than some have suggested.  Many of those critical of this draft class have said this all along.

All told, I’d still rather have ‘23 rookie picks than ‘22 rookie picks. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

All fair.

Counterpoint: the NFL can only draft the players in front of them.

Other than QB, this draft was both strong and deep at premium NFL non-fantasy positions.  Edge, tackle, DB all had some real stud prospects and were pretty deep.  So it's not like people were just drafting WRs because there was nothing else to take.  For NFL purposes this was a pretty good draft other than QB, so lots of competition for those WRs.

What you said about contracts definitely played some part I'm sure, but I don't think it made THAT big of a difference as if these were all 2nd round prospects being taken in the top 15 or something.  These guys went roughly where they were projected before WR contracts blew up.

All told, I’d still rather have ‘23 rookie picks than ‘22 rookie picks. 

No doubt, but there's a huge gap between "not as good as 2023" and "so bad I just want to give my picks away like back in 2016".  People are treating it far more like the latter, when in reality it's probably a lot closer to somewhere in the middle of those two.  I don't think this is the 2nd worst class of the last 10 years, but people are certainly treating it that way.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What you said about contracts definitely played some part I'm sure, but I don't think it made THAT big of a difference as if these were all 2nd round prospects being taken in the top 15 or something.

maybe not, no - but it literally drove a massive trade and subsequent WR selection with the Titans and Eagles, and reportedly almost did with the Niners & a couple other teams. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

No doubt, but there's a huge gap between "not as good as 2023" and "so bad I just want to give my picks away like back in 2016".  People are treating it far more like the latter, when in reality it's probably a lot closer to somewhere in the middle of those two.  I don't think this is the 2nd worst class of the last 10 years, but people are certainly treating it that way.

I agree with this. 

 

[menobrown]

Remember that year guys like Booker and Dixon who were FOURTH ROUND nfl picks were going in the top 10 of rookie drafts.

That happened in a most of my drafts last year with Michael Carter and until Friday night that actually looked like a solid pick.

I was just highlighting that but I agree with most of what you are saying and I absolutely think this class is better then say 2016 and 2019 going off recent memory and I'd break down this class this way and I'm mainly looking at standard dynasty leagues.

Pro's:

*Deep with first round dynasty WR prospects. I'm coming up with 9 WR's I think most would agree are not first round reaches. Perhaps out of that group various people won't like 1-2 of them but 9 first round WR candidates will be consensus I'd assume.

*What I expect to quite possibly be the best second round RB draft class I can recall in dynasty. 

Negatives:

*the landing spots for majority of higher end prospects was not ideal. Most of the upper end WR's landed with bad QB's and the top two RB's have some comp in their backfields that  may range from limiting their upside to not trusting them as legit usable options for now.

*for me and others may see it differently but were I expect the RB depth to be as strong as I can recall in round two the exact opposite exists for the WR position. It's what I expect to be the leanest looking WR second round draft options as I can remember.  

*Bad TE class which was one of major disappointments of NFL draft. Subpar  draft capital combined with stinky landing spots for most of them. There very well might end up being some diamonds in the group, likely IMO even,  but good luck hanging on long enough to them to get rewarded if one you drafted turns out to be such a guy.

* I had mentioned this was for standard but in SF which I don't play a weak QB market obviously so understand why people in that format would view this draft as far worse then I might.

All all in I think we got strong WR first round, a strong RB second round. A rock solid #1, not an Elliot/Barkley/Gurley level but a rock solid 1.1. The easy button goes away a little after that but a lot of high quality options and I can just say my 12th ranked player stacks up against my 12th ranked player in the best of classes so in  all of round 1 IMO presents solid options that don't feel like reaches to me in any class. I think some really solid options that should exist into middle to late round two but then for me the cliff falls off in a hurry and this is due again to what I view as weak WR depth after top group.  Since we don't really judge drafts on quality of third round or later picks but mainly first round with some considerable weight to the second I think this class grades out just fine. Better then a lot we've seen past few years and easily so.

Saying all that the elite talent at top of the 2023 draft seems as legit as it gets. I'm just not sure say pick 12 next year will look any better then pick 12 this year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m interested to see people's thoughts on this…

In one of my FFPC leagues, the guy with the 1.1 (and run away favorite to win it all again this year) put his 1.1 pick on the block. I have 3 2023 picks and I know most of this board believe the 2023 draft will be great, but I’m wonder what folks think of a likely mid-2023 1st vs the known quantity of the 1.1 this year. 

I believe the 1.01 is the exception, in that Hall is my 1.02 devy player (2022-2023-2024) 

So I’d reject it if I had 1.01 this year. 

 

[JoeJoe88]

Where do you guys put the value of Brandon Aiyuk in terms of rookie picks? I have a chance to acquire but I want to make sure I don’t overpay market value. Obviously things can change a lot if DeeBo does indeed depart, but all that has to be baked into his current value. 

 

[foxco]

Where do you guys put the value of Brandon Aiyuk in terms of rookie picks? I have a chance to acquire but I want to make sure I don’t overpay market value. Obviously things can change a lot if DeeBo does indeed depart, but all that has to be baked into his current value. 

That's a good question and a tough one for me. In some ways he's almost as unproven as a rookie as he's shown both success and disastrous results. If I had to guess I'd peg him around 1.10 - 2.03 or so? Think I'd rather take a shot at a Skyy Moore type maybe personally, but I can see if Aiyuk owners think he's worth the 1.08 or something, I just don't think I'd pay it. 

 

[Birdie048]

Where do you guys put the value of Brandon Aiyuk in terms of rookie picks? I have a chance to acquire but I want to make sure I don’t overpay market value. Obviously things can change a lot if DeeBo does indeed depart, but all that has to be baked into his current value. 

Aiyuk is in a "hold pattern" due to the changes going on around him.  Deebo's potential departure, Lance getting his hands under Center and the healthy RB Group all could signal a reduction in his value.  But most owners are not selling for less than a Top 7 pick, at least in my experience.  

I would jump at buying him for an early 2nd or even 2x2nds!  But I would hesitate giving up a Top 7 pick.  

This leaves the no-man's land of 1.08-2.01 range as the likely value. 

 

[menobrown]

Where do you guys put the value of Brandon Aiyuk in terms of rookie picks? I have a chance to acquire but I want to make sure I don’t overpay market value. Obviously things can change a lot if DeeBo does indeed depart, but all that has to be baked into his current value. 

If he was in the rookie pool I'd probably rank him as player 14.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Thanks guys. 
 

Aiyuk owner has offered him to me for:

2.03, 3.04 and 2024 2nd 

I’m in a full rebuild and have 7 1sts next year, and I’ll likely be heavily targeting RB and QB since that appears it’s going to be the strength of that class. I’d like to acquire a few young upside WR’s to coincide with that. I got Bateman the other day. I also have Lance and Pitts, but outside of that and Mooney and maybe Christian Kirk my roster is pretty bare. 

 

[joey]

Thanks guys. 
 

Aiyuk owner has offered him to me for:

2.03, 3.04 and 2024 2nd 

I’m in a full rebuild and have 7 1sts next year, and I’ll likely be heavily targeting RB and QB since that appears it’s going to be the strength of that class. I’d like to acquire a few young upside WR’s to coincide with that. I got Bateman the other day. I also have Lance and Pitts, but outside of that and Mooney and maybe Christian Kirk my roster is pretty bare. 

I'd think 1 of those 2nd's and the 3.4 should get it done. No need for 2 2nds imo

ETA: heck, some might say this year's 2.3might be enough. 

 

[JoeJoe88]

I'd think 1 of those 2nd's and the 3.4 should get it done. No need for 2nds imo

ETA: heck, some might say this year's 2.3might be enough. 

Yeah, it’s probably a little rich. I just keep thinking what if DeeBo gets moved? 

 

[joey]

Yeah, it’s probably a little rich. I just keep thinking what if DeeBo gets moved? 

I guess. As a Aiyuk owner in 1 dynasty league he’s a firm Hold for me. 
I was going to say that it seems like there’s no way that Deebo is traded but….Adams, Hill, AJB  

an off-season like none of us have ever seen. 

 

[JoeJoe88]

I guess. As a Aiyuk owner in 1 dynasty league he’s a firm Hold for me. 
I was going to say that it seems like there’s no way that Deebo is traded but….Adams, Hill, AJB  

an off-season like none of us have ever seen. 

I guess that’s the big thing for me. If DeeBo gets moved, what I’m giving up above is likely pretty light. What’s worst case scenario? DeeBo stays and Aiyuk puts up another 900 or so yard season. But he did just turn 24 years old. I’m torn lol

if I was more confident DeeBo was going to end up being traded I’d just pull the trigger. 
 

 

[EBF]

Aiyuk is only ~1 year removed from starting for me in several FF title games. Don't sleep on him too much. He was lights out down the stretch in 2020. Better prospect than most of these rookies. This is the time of year when everyone falls in love with the potential, but the hit rate is going to be all over the map on these guys. More likely to get a Meachem or Raegor than a Ridley or Metcalf. Aiyuk represents a compromise between those two poles.

I'm still going through this rookie class because I didn't watch any college football this year, but my first instinct is that I'd be willing to trade something as high as maybe 1.07 or 1.08 for Aiyuk. About the range where I had him when he was a rookie.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

What is Miles Sanders' trade value in terms of draft picks? 

 

[Rockchild]

What is Miles Sanders' trade value in terms of draft picks? 

I acquired him for the 2.02 recently. 

 

[foxco]

I acquired him for the 2.02 recently. 

I'd pay that for Miles. I think he's worth the 1.09ish maybe, about where James Cook will be going?

 

[joey]

I acquired him for the 2.02 recently. 

I’m not a huge Sanders fan but that seems like a bargain to me. Then again, I’m not making any offers for Sanders so maybe it’s spot on. 

 

[JohnnyU]

I’m not a huge Sanders fan but that seems like a bargain to me. Then again, I’m not making any offers for Sanders so maybe it’s spot on. 

Make or break year for Sanders.  I don’t think he will be in Philly after this year.  That may be a good thing for him.

 

[titusbramble]

Thoughts on Michael Carter right now? I'm not sure what he was going for before the draft (want to say a late first maybe?), but I wonder how much his value has actually tumbled given the landing spot of Hall. I have the 2.07 in superflex and I'm thinking there's 3 QB's, 4 RB's then 8 WR's I'd prefer to take straight up, am I undervaluing Carter to say that?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Thoughts on Michael Carter right now? I'm not sure what he was going for before the draft (want to say a late first maybe?), but I wonder how much his value has actually tumbled given the landing spot of Hall. I have the 2.07 in superflex and I'm thinking there's 3 QB's, 4 RB's then 8 WR's I'd prefer to take straight up, am I undervaluing Carter to say that?

He now has handcuff value - 3rd round pick?

 

[Boston]

Thoughts on Michael Carter right now? I'm not sure what he was going for before the draft (want to say a late first maybe?), but I wonder how much his value has actually tumbled given the landing spot of Hall. I have the 2.07 in superflex and I'm thinking there's 3 QB's, 4 RB's then 8 WR's I'd prefer to take straight up, am I undervaluing Carter to say that?

He is a guy I would target right now because his Owner is probably down about the Hall pick (as he should be) and you can get him pretty cheap due to that...I am going to beat this drum non-stop but with RBBC becoming the norm guys like this need to be looked at differently when it comes to building a RB unit...you don't want to go into the season starting him but as a depth piece he is a good RB who should be good for about 8 touches a game with hopefully 4 being receptions so you can play him in a pinch and if Hall was to get hurt he could be a starter for a few weeks...everyone wants the workhorse/bell cow but there are going to be fewer and fewer of them going forward and I believe it is imperative not to overlook talented "playable" RBs like Carter who could be the difference in winning a playoff game in week 15.

 

[MTskibum]

In a 14 team start 1 QB league, what is the gap in value between Dak Prescott and Darren Waller?

 

[tangfoot]

In a 14 team start 1 QB league, what is the gap in value between Dak Prescott and Darren Waller?

Mizelle says Waller is #68 overall and Dak is #82, but that does not take league size into account. Probably pretty much 1:1 in a 14 team league.

 

[JamboTaylor]

What now for Devonta Smith?

 

[Mister CIA]

Make or break year for Sanders.  I don’t think he will be in Philly after this year.  That may be a good thing for him.

A LeSean McCoy like career trajectory, sort of.  Miles Sanders, Buffalo Bill, 2023.

 

[DropKick]

In a 14 team start 1 QB league, what is the gap in value between Dak Prescott and Darren Waller?

What context?  If that's a trade, a lot may hinge on roster composition.  QBs, even good ones, can have middling value on 1 QB leagues,  14 team might move the needle a little.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Curious on where you guys are on this one. This is a 2QB league, and I’m in a full rebuild. Trey Lance and Pitts are by far my best two assets. I have 7 2023 1sts, including my own, and 4 2024 1sts. I should have the 1.01 in 2023. 
 

The owner with this years 1.01 offered me this this morning:

Give: Trey Lance

Get: 1.01 and Hurts

i turned it down, but should I be considering this more? I’m just not that confident in Hurts being a long-term starter. Breece is most peoples 1.01, but I’m not sure he makes a ton of sense for me right now. My plan was targeting 2023 heavily at rb next year since that’s seemingly going to be the strength of the class. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Curious on where you guys are on this one. This is a 2QB league, and I’m in a full rebuild. Trey Lance and Pitts are by far my best two assets. I have 7 2023 1sts, including my own, and 4 2024 1sts. I should have the 1.01 in 2023. 
 

The owner with this years 1.01 offered me this this morning:

Give: Trey Lance

Get: 1.01 and Hurts

i turned it down, but should I be considering this more? I’m just not that confident in Hurts being a long-term starter. Breece is most peoples 1.01, but I’m not sure he makes a ton of sense for me right now. My plan was targeting 2023 heavily at rb next year since that’s seemingly going to be the strength of the class. 

I'd do it.  What's so great bout Trey Lance?  

I don't like Hurts either but is he really THAT less valuable than  Lance?

Trade hurts after

 

[robb]

I would hit the accept button as soon as I could reach it and accept this trade if offered again, or get back and ask if they would do it again!

 

[JoeJoe88]

don't like Hurts either but is he really THAT less valuable than  Lance?

I think in most peoples eyes, he is. At least in my league. The fact that the Niners gave up so much to get Trey and that he’s in that Shanny system surrounded by a nice option of weapons. He should have a much longer leash even if he struggles in theory than Hurts. Most people feel this year is make or break for Hurts if he didn’t improve as a passer. 
 

and then what do I do at 1.01? Receiver makes the most sense for me, but can I really draft a WR over Breece? 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think in most peoples eyes, he is. At least in my league. The fact that the Niners gave up so much to get Trey and that he’s in that Shanny system surrounded by a nice option of weapons. He should have a much longer leash even if he struggles in theory than Hurts. Most people feel this year is make or break for Hurts if he didn’t improve as a passer. 
 

and then what do I do at 1.01? Receiver makes the most sense for me, but can I really draft a WR over Breece? 

Trade down from the 1.01?

 

[JohnnyU]

I'd do it.  What's so great bout Trey Lance?  

I don't like Hurts either but is he really THAT less valuable than  Lance?

Trade hurts after

In SF I would have turned it down also.

 

[ghostguy123]

I think in most peoples eyes, he is. At least in my league. The fact that the Niners gave up so much to get Trey and that he’s in that Shanny system surrounded by a nice option of weapons. He should have a much longer leash even if he struggles in theory than Hurts. Most people feel this year is make or break for Hurts if he didn’t improve as a passer. 
 

and then what do I do at 1.01? Receiver makes the most sense for me, but can I really draft a WR over Breece? 

You are too worried about what your lineup will look like in 2 or 3 years.

Worry about gaining value right now.  That's how a rebuild should work.

If you make the trade, you draft Hall or trade him for one of the established good young WRs now or even next year.  Or maybe Hall is a stud, oh darn.

Trade Hurts right away. Someone will give some value for him

 

[ghostguy123]

Trade down from the 1.01?

Also a great option.  

Frankly, I don't care for Lance much. In 1QB I probably wouldn't roster him in short bench leagues