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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)

Price check on Travis Kelce? Any recent trades?

I have a SF dynasty team that is pretty strong, except at TE. What would you be willing to add to a middling TE (say...Dawson Knox) to get a Kelce in return? I'm not sure I can justify adding a 2023 1st.
If you don’t add a 1st, I don’t see how you get him. Unless you add another Stud player.
I tried to send Irv Smith and a likely late 2023 1st for Kelce (non-SF but TE premium) and was rejected with no counter so far.
Thanks, that makes sense. Other owner sent me the initial offer of 2023 1st and 2nd on top of Knox, and I countered with Knox, Pollard and a 2nd. I'm hoping to find a way to bridge the gap w/o giving up a 1st. But I can't fault the other side for wanting/insisting on getting a 1st back.
 
Price check on Travis Kelce? Any recent trades?

I have a SF dynasty team that is pretty strong, except at TE. What would you be willing to add to a middling TE (say...Dawson Knox) to get a Kelce in return? I'm not sure I can justify adding a 2023 1st.
I'd value him as a late first but I doubt you get him for that. The state of TE is just soooo bad.
 
Where do we value Amon-Ra at this point? I think there still may be a buying opportunity, but its probably closing fast. No doubt he's been really good. However, 4th round pick, the QB situation is still a ?, Williams could cut into his target share, and its still the Lions.

Am I crazy to be willing to move two 23 1st (8-12 range) for him?
 
So few TE’s that are difference makers that you are going to have to overpay for Andrews, Pitts and even Kelce at his age. Only option I see is if the Kelce owner has no shot at competing and wants to rebuild. Otherwise you are going to have to buy low and gamble on say Kittle staying healthy or Hock getting more involved in the offense as a few examples.

I have Kittle in one league and am hoping he can get healthy and have some of his signature monster games for a stretch to upgrade him with a 1st or another player added to a team that is middle of the pack that has Andrews.
 
Just cold offered Terry McLaurin and AJ Dillon for his Saquon Barkley and a third. Am I in the ballpark or am I giving too much, or what say you?
 
Just cold offered Terry McLaurin and AJ Dillon for his Saquon Barkley and a third. Am I in the ballpark or am I giving too much, or what say you?
Think it's definitely in the ballpark. Depends on make-up of the other team I think. If I'm looking to next year or am really weak at WR I take that for Barkley I think,
 
Where do we value Amon-Ra at this point? I think there still may be a buying opportunity, but its probably closing fast. No doubt he's been really good. However, 4th round pick, the QB situation is still a ?, Williams could cut into his target share, and its still the Lions.

Am I crazy to be willing to move two 23 1st (8-12 range) for him?
I was a doubter for most of the off-season before listening to what a few guys in here said and paying more attention. I drafted him in redraft at least.
At this point, even in this draft class I think Id pay the two late firsts. He gets targets, because he deserves them.
 
Just cold offered Terry McLaurin and AJ Dillon for his Saquon Barkley and a third. Am I in the ballpark or am I giving too much, or what say you?
Think it's definitely in the ballpark. Depends on make-up of the other team I think. If I'm looking to next year or am really weak at WR I take that for Barkley I think,

Just cold offered Terry McLaurin and AJ Dillon for his Saquon Barkley and a third. Am I in the ballpark or am I giving too much, or what say you?
Unless I could surely win now - I’d stick with your guys. Someday McLaurin will get a good QB - or maybe not.

Thanks, guys. I don't know if I could surely win the league right now, but Barkley is only a year older than Dillon and McLaurin is twenty-seven, so I'm not sure how much the perceived age difference really is. I don't mind if he rejects the offer, either. I've just always wanted Barkley, so I figure I'd put in a fair offer for him. That's really what I'm trying to gauge. Is it fair or not...
 
Great trade if you can pull it off. There’s 20-30 “McLaurins” at WR right now and only a handful of RBs that can be league winners

This is why I came in here and asked this, actually. Thanks for the refresher. All the calcs have him winning the deal so I thought it was reasonably fair, but this logic is also going to come into play. Lots of WRs, RB scarcity.
 
Where do we value Gabriel Davis in dynasty?

I sent out some offers and wondering where people have him?
Players and/or picks.

Sent out in different leagues:
Mid/Late 1st
Curtis samuel
 
Where do we value Gabriel Davis in dynasty?

I sent out some offers and wondering where people have him?
Players and/or picks.

Sent out in different leagues:
Mid/Late 1st
Curtis samuel

Mid-to-late first might do it for me, but I need RBs, so I guess it depends on how liquid the guy wants to be with his assets.

Curtis Samuel is too soon and not enough. His aDOT is atrocious, and that's always worrisome.
 
Where do we value Gabriel Davis in dynasty?

I sent out some offers and wondering where people have him?
Players and/or picks.

Sent out in different leagues:
Mid/Late 1st
Curtis samuel

Mid-to-late first might do it for me, but I need RBs, so I guess it depends on how liquid the guy wants to be with his assets.

Curtis Samuel is too soon and not enough. His aDOT is atrocious, and that's always worrisome.
Yeah, I would rather gamble on Davis panning out then Samuel staying healthy. But it has been encouraging the amount of touches he has gotten to start the year.
 
Anybody made a move for Waddle recently ? Decided I want to go and try get him but aware he’s most likely going to cost a lot
 
Anybody made a move for Waddle recently ? Decided I want to go and try get him but aware he’s most likely going to cost a lot
This was a couple weeks ago but:

Team A got Waddle
Team B got Marquise Brown and a 2023 1st (likely top 6/non-playoffs)

Contracts involved that slightly increase the cost of keeping Brown long term.
 
Where do we value Gabriel Davis in dynasty?

If I was selling I would want a minimum of a 2023 1st, but as I don't believe in the hype I wouldn't pay more than a 2nd
That's where I land too. I'm not a full believer and would love to flip Gabe (did in one league) for his perceived value. The only league I have him left in I also have Diggs though so he's got a lot more value to me as a handcuff now so I am probably riding him out there because I doubt someone steps up for him there.
 
Where do we value Gabriel Davis in dynasty?

If I was selling I would want a minimum of a 2023 1st, but as I don't believe in the hype I wouldn't pay more than a 2nd
That's where I land too. I'm not a full believer and would love to flip Gabe (did in one league) for his perceived value. The only league I have him left in I also have Diggs though so he's got a lot more value to me as a handcuff now so I am probably riding him out there because I doubt someone steps up for him there.
Okay so for draft pick you would pay a 2023 second?
Also, what do you think of an offer of a Curtis Samuel/A. Pierce/Kirk/Doubs type for G. Davis. Or where would you rank him in that group.
I would go:
Kirk
Doubs
G. Davis
Samuel
Pierce
 
Where do we value Amon-Ra at this point? I think there still may be a buying opportunity, but its probably closing fast. No doubt he's been really good. However, 4th round pick, the QB situation is still a ?, Williams could cut into his target share, and its still the Lions.

Am I crazy to be willing to move two 23 1st (8-12 range) for him?
These are the kind of make-or-crush your team kinds of scenarios. You can't argue the results of the guy when he's on the field for sure, but he's also got no competition for targets yet. Jamison Williams is a huge wildcard for ASRB's future and Goff could end up playing just well enough that they keep him, go full ground and pound RBBC grind offense and now Hockenson, Williams, and ASRB are splitting a very small pie.

However, he's a top 5 WR today as you sort the PPG results.

Me? I wouldn't meet the market price and I wouldn't give two 1sts but I wouldn't make fun of anyone that did. Just not how I run my team, but I could see others doing it for sure.
 
If I was offered two firsts for ARSB I'd at least start thinking about it, but it'd totally depend on where the firsts were projected to be
 
Okay so for draft pick you would pay a 2023 second?
Also, what do you think of an offer of a Curtis Samuel/A. Pierce/Kirk/Doubs type for G. Davis. Or where would you rank him in that group.
I would go:
Kirk
Doubs
G. Davis
Samuel
Pierce
I'd pay a 2nd but only because I'd flip him for more later to the first guy that complained it was too cheap ;)

I'd take Doubs or Kirk for him easily. Doubs for flipping, Kirk for lineup purposes. If Doubs hauls in that pass he's instantly gonna bring in two firsts or even better a 1st and a guy I am crushing on that's currently cheap. Pass on the other donkeys. I've never bought into Samuel as a full time lineup option. Loved him as a Buckeye but way more value to an NFL team as a gadget/decoy/big play guy than to a FF lineup except perhaps best ball.

I run my dynasty teams a little different than most. If they aren't core players for me I'm much more interested in market value than I am on long term potential, with the exception of guys I really personally believe in based on what I've watched (usually in college). Guys like Garrett Wilson and Marquise Brown this year, Michael Pittman/Tony Pollard/Kirk last. Still kicking myself I didn't go get Kirk when I could have on the cheap.
 
1QB Contract League (10% salary increase p/yr)

Penny - $975,000 3 years

Or

James Robinson - 514,250 2 years
The bold seems to be contradictory (at least to me). Are these salaries locked in for the years listed or do they still go up 10% per year? If they still go up what is the point of the contract years? (this is just for me to understand your format as I like to see how other leagues handle salary and contracts).


For the question at hand I would rather have Robinson. He is good and Jax is on the upswing. Penny is solid but not double the price solid.
 
1QB Contract League (10% salary increase p/yr)

Penny - $975,000 3 years

Or

James Robinson - 514,250 2 years
The bold seems to be contradictory (at least to me). Are these salaries locked in for the years listed or do they still go up 10% per year? If they still go up what is the point of the contract years? (this is just for me to understand your format as I like to see how other leagues handle salary and contracts).


For the question at hand I would rather have Robinson. He is good and Jax is on the upswing. Penny is solid but not double the price solid.

The years get assigned by the owners when drafted/after FA.

 
The salary increases 10% per/year regardless. Makes for some interesting trade valuations if a player is stuck on a bad contract.
Don't want to hijak for too long so I will ask one more question. What is the point of awarding a long contract if the salary goes up anyway? In all the salary cap leagues I have seen the contract locks in the salary for that duration so it can't escalate but then puts the owner on the hook for the whole salary if he cuts a guy. That is the risk/reward. I just don't see the risk/reward here and why contract years matter. I must be missing something.
 
The salary increases 10% per/year regardless. Makes for some interesting trade valuations if a player is stuck on a bad contract.
Don't want to hijak for too long so I will ask one more question. What is the point of awarding a long contract if the salary goes up anyway? In all the salary cap leagues I have seen the contract locks in the salary for that duration so it can't escalate but then puts the owner on the hook for the whole salary if he cuts a guy. That is the risk/reward. I just don't see the risk/reward here and why contract years matter. I must be missing something.
You can get a good player on a cheap, long term contract if you draft/get a FA bargain 🤷‍♂️ Helps a lot building a competitive team.
 
Looking for some guidance on what to expect or require from trading away a few assets in my REBUILD. 12 Team 0.5PPR / 1.0 PPR TE / 1 QB (1/1/3/1 & 2 Flex)
I have accumulated a few 2023 & 2024 1sts (6 total) and I am clearly looking to get the 1.01 pick (but still early, but 0-4 and #12 in Points & #12 in Potential Points

CAR RB Christian McCaffery - 16.5 pt/gm avg (#6 RB)
WAS WR Curtis Samuel - 12.5 pt/gm avg (#20 WR)

CMC has his next 5 games vs Top 12 Run Def. Not ideal.
Samuel is getting 8+ touches per game & Dotson is injured so his value is ideal to move.

I could not find any recent trade for CMC other than a late 1st and a deal for 2 mid/late 1sts --> Has his value dropped that much due to Bumbling Baker?

EDIT TO ADD: moved CMC & Curtis Samuel both in a package deal --> 2023 Mid 1st & 2nd, Phil RB K Gainwell & LV RB Zamir White
 
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Quick question about QB values.

I'm in a 12 team 1 QB league. 4 points for Passing TD, 1/20 points for passing yards with large rosters. 54 QB's are rostered.

How much does that scarcity impact value of QB's?

When I inquired about QB's in the 10 to 18 range, I was basically quotes prices as if the league was 2QB or even a Superflex.

I get that scarcity drives up the price, but when I guy tells me he'll move Garappolo for Ekeler+, I feel like I'm missing something.
 
Probably more about the value to your league mates than anything else. I have a similar league to that, where they all overvalue QBs. I did have to slightly adjust my values in order to acquire what my team needed, but I certainly would NOT pay an Eckeler+ for Jimmy G. I mostly compensated by drafting young/rookie QBs a little earlier until I had a solid based of them.
 
Quick question about QB values.

I'm in a 12 team 1 QB league. 4 points for Passing TD, 1/20 points for passing yards with large rosters. 54 QB's are rostered.

How much does that scarcity impact value of QB's?

When I inquired about QB's in the 10 to 18 range, I was basically quotes prices as if the league was 2QB or even a Superflex.

I get that scarcity drives up the price, but when I guy tells me he'll move Garappolo for Ekeler+, I feel like I'm missing something.
QBs are not worth very much in 4 pts per TD and start 1QB in a 12 team league. It's hard for me to believe that there are still leagues that only give 4 pts for a TD in start 1QB leagues. I finally convinced the leagues I commish to give 6 pts to QBs. All of which are start 1QB leagues.
 
Alec Pierce and Doubs value moving forward?
I'm probably way more bullish on Pierce than most, but personally I wouldn't move him for less than a 1.08-1.12 type of pick. Even that might be underselling him. He has all the tools to be a multi-year WR2 in FF, and has already flashed in several games. I may go as high as 1.06-1.08 for his range.

Doubs is interesting, but absent the same draft capital I think I'm probably comfortable taking an early-mid 2nd and calling it a solid profit based on entry price. Full disclosure: Wasn't in on Doubs during the preseason, so less emotionally invested.
 
Probably more about the value to your league mates than anything else. I have a similar league to that, where they all overvalue QBs. I did have to slightly adjust my values in order to acquire what my team needed, but I certainly would NOT pay an Eckeler+ for Jimmy G. I mostly compensated by drafting young/rookie QBs a little earlier until I had a solid based of them.
I saw similar value in my 12 Team 1QB league ... teams holding 4 "Starting Top 12 QB's", they want a high premium to move them. But I picked up Winston for a 3rd and Wentz for a 4th & Skylar Thompson off Waivers... Granted, I am in re-build so not a major issue / working on 2023 1.01 pick with my team ... But when I asked for Herbert to the team who owns Lamar, Burrow, Zach Wilson and Malik Willis, I offered an early 2nd.... he wanted MY "EARLY 1st & 2nd" ... HARD PASS.
I think the points on their Bench offer them something that is hard to replace... I am not sure what that is... but I won't be paying those prices.
 
Alec Pierce and Doubs value moving forward?
I'm probably way more bullish on Pierce than most, but personally I wouldn't move him for less than a 1.08-1.12 type of pick. Even that might be underselling him. He has all the tools to be a multi-year WR2 in FF, and has already flashed in several games. I may go as high as 1.06-1.08 for his range.

Doubs is interesting, but absent the same draft capital I think I'm probably comfortable taking an early-mid 2nd and calling it a solid profit based on entry price. Full disclosure: Wasn't in on Doubs during the preseason, so less emotionally invested.
I see Alec Pierce as mid-1st but Doubs as a 2nd as well. If Indy gets a reliable QB, Pierce will be WR1A-1B value
Funny offer I got today... I inquired for MT and he wanted A Pierce and my early 2nd for MT. I told him if he included his 2nd with MT and not mine, I would still pass.
 
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What is Pitts value?
DeVonta for Pitts?

I have the potential opportunity to move DeVonta Smith for Pitts. Our league starts 5 Flex at the RB/WR/TE spots with the rule if you start 2 or 3 RBs (3 max) you have to start a TE. I start 3 rb and have Kelce, but looking into the future of not having Kelce much longer. I only need to start 1 WR and have Higgins, DJohnson, Hollywood and Aiyuk to go with Smith. Other team will start 1 rb and 4 wr if they do the trade. They also have Hurts so looking for the qb/wr combo.
 
Breece Halls value is sky high, is it a chance to sell super high? Was offered Kamara and a 1st (likely early - mid) but don’t think it’s near enough to sell this guy.
 
I have the potential opportunity to move DeVonta Smith for Pitts.

Gosh, I know how the season started, but you have to do that on future trade value alone, don't you? I'd do that before the other guy came to his senses. Smash it.
I'm selling the Slim Reaper for Pitts all day in Dynasty. Some day, Mariota will not be his QB and we will look back on this trade and laugh our way to championships.
 
Question about the value of current stud production based on a discussion I had with one of my leaguemates. He's got 4 1sts next year and is currently 3rd or 4th best team. But he will not give up 2 of them for Kupp. Well Kupp is 29 he says. Kamara is not worth a single 1st, also because he's 27.

I say he doesn't appreciate the value of time. I'm sure there is a name for this concept in finance. This is the reason you pay interest on a loan because future money is worth less than present money.

The example is from an empire league, in my estimation will end 5-10 years from now. Based solely on years of use then, a future pick is worth 80%-90% of a current player. One might counter by saying Kupp will not be playing at age 39 either.

For real tho, who is looking 10 years down the road? I think you're a fool in this hobby for looking more than 6 years into the future. After all, everything is a depreciating asset on average.

In 6 years Kupp is probably not worth much, he's likely retired. But what about the pick(s)? Very likely woth not much more. Think about it. How many 1st round picks are contributing anything substantial after 6 years? In other words, the chance you get a Kupp with 2 firsts or a Kamara with 1, I could put an empirical number on it but I don't feel like it. Suffice to say, its not as high as ppl think.

Well anyway, those are my thoughts. It's like Kyle Shanahan says, we don't even know who will be alive.
 
For real tho, who is looking 10 years down the road? I think you're a fool in this hobby for looking more than 6 years into the future. After all, everything is a depreciating asset on average.
I think "most dynasty" owners are looking at a specific window of opportunity. For me, last year, 2021, I looked at getting Draft picks in 2023 & 2024 to be competitive in 2025. So I have a 4 year window for my rebuild. But for a "Win Now" roster, that window needs to be shorter to ensure the strongest chance to take the crown - maybe 1-2 years based on roster age composition.
Player Age and "Wear and Tear" (or # of touches/carries for RB) are real threats to many players as we have seen players fall of the cliff in performance. Think back to Priest Holmes and his 3 years in a row of 400 touches in a season led to his early demise. WR's age is about "losing a step". Many go on the adage of Sell too soon then too late for owners.

Not wanting to pay 2 x 1st for Kupp is not unreasonable. It also has to be based on roster need and expected ROI. As an owner of 6 2023 1st & 2nd round picks, I would not part with them for a single player when my roster needs more than 1 spot/player to compete. Look at the window of Calvin Ridley. What is his value when he returns next year? And where? He was Top 5 WR until the bottom fell out (right after I traded for him of course)....
 
AJ Brown vs DK Metcalf

Have the opportunity to trade for one of them ..
#1: Which do you prefer
#2: How much do you give up for your favorite? (I have Dionte Johnson, Hollywood Brown, Devonta Smith, 2 low 1st Round and 1 high 2nd Round Rookie Pick in 2023 to use in the package)

I just haven't seen any trades for either. They worth a WR and 1 Pick, WR and 2 #1 ... just not sure.
 
AJ Brown vs DK Metcalf

To begin, AJ Brown is worth a little more than DK Metcalf, IMO. A second rounder more.

But, I traded AJ Brown, Javonte Williams, and Chase Young (say around the 2.06) for DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, and the 1.01 in the off-season.

That's probably too many pieces to give a true comparison but I preferred, in my heart, Metcalf to Brown and Breece Hall to Javonte. Especially since I thought I got a little cream with Sutton, but that was back in the off-season when we didn't know he'd be a WR1 (he's tenth in our league) so far. Well, I had a sneaking suspicion he'd be good.

Everybody's mileage may vary on that trade. Remember you can't judge it since J. Williams went down, it's really about value at the time.

Moving on from that:

Hollywood Brown is outscoring both of them respectively by a pretty good margin, by the way.

I'd say they're worth more than the 1.01, but not by too much. Bijan or an RB satisfies RB requirements and helps with RB scarcity.

It's all so screwed up. Who knows what they're worth? What they're worth is what they're worth to the owner, in the end.

If you want a definitive/objective amount (with all the limitations a calc entails) check KeepTradeCut to get an idea. It's free.
 
AJ Brown vs DK Metcalf

Have the opportunity to trade for one of them ..
#1: Which do you prefer
#2: How much do you give up for your favorite? (I have Dionte Johnson, Hollywood Brown, Devonta Smith, 2 low 1st Round and 1 high 2nd Round Rookie Pick in 2023 to use in the package)

I just haven't seen any trades for either. They worth a WR and 1 Pick, WR and 2 #1 ... just not sure.

All things being equal, I'm taking AJB if it's a choice. I would be lying if I said I don't worry about his injury history. I'm definitely open to DK as the better trade target if the cost is significantly less. Already having Devonta might factor in too.

I would start with the best late 1st if you think it has a snowball's chance with that owner. WR of his choice (probably DK); I would call AJB or DK a steal for that price.

More realistically, the latest 1st + 2nd. If he was waffling at all on the first offer, ask for a current/future 3rd or late 2nd coming back your way. Or at least insist on the WR of your choice for the 1st and 2nd

You could also offer a high 2nd + one of your WRs. Honestly, I'm not sure that DK or AJB should command one of your WRs + a late 1st. I believe in the talent of both, but AJB has a lot of mouths to compete with. Geno has been good, but is he really the answer for the long haul. I don't know that I would go beyond that, but you could make a case.
 
Strong contender. Looking for insurance to CMC and Henry (I do have Dillon, Herbert, Henderson). One of the teams has gone into tank mode. I offered Zamir White and an early '23 2nd for Elliott (1QB 1/2 PPR).

His counter offer was Alec Pierce + the early 2nd. This is a no for me, despite having no shortage of WRs.... am I falling too hard for the rookie?

What's the right price for Elliott at this point? Am I obligated to do Alec Pierce straight up if that's an option? Thinking I might try early 2nd + early 3rd + Zamir first.
 

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