Question about the value of current stud production based on a discussion I had with one of my leaguemates. He's got 4 1sts next year and is currently 3rd or 4th best team. But he will not give up 2 of them for Kupp. Well Kupp is 29 he says. Kamara is not worth a single 1st, also because he's 27.
I say he doesn't appreciate the value of time. I'm sure there is a name for this concept in finance. This is the reason you pay interest on a loan because future money is worth less than present money.
The example is from an empire league, in my estimation will end 5-10 years from now. Based solely on years of use then, a future pick is worth 80%-90% of a current player. One might counter by saying Kupp will not be playing at age 39 either.
For real tho, who is looking 10 years down the road? I think you're a fool in this hobby for looking more than 6 years into the future. After all, everything is a depreciating asset on average.
In 6 years Kupp is probably not worth much, he's likely retired. But what about the pick(s)? Very likely woth not much more. Think about it. How many 1st round picks are contributing anything substantial after 6 years? In other words, the chance you get a Kupp with 2 firsts or a Kamara with 1, I could put an empirical number on it but I don't feel like it. Suffice to say, its not as high as ppl think.
Well anyway, those are my thoughts. It's like Kyle Shanahan says, we don't even know who will be alive.