Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (11 Viewers)

[C & C]

hahaha yeah it is. Sorry, there was a lot of moving parts in the league so had to give some context lol

When you say picks counting against the cap, do you mean that they have a dollar value that gets added along with the player contracts? If so, no, they don't count against the cap but my proposal is asking that they do have a dollar value (not counting against the cap) but a value that we can now burn/forfeit in order to receive cap dollars instead of drafting a pick. So say a 2nd rd pick is valued at $8, I can now forefeit that pick and receive $8 in cap back and they'll skip my pick in the draft order. I'm hoping this gets approved bc it's not always easy to get a trade done for extra cap or for players due to their contracts. Which is in a way to force you to make cuts so more players go back in the pool. But at least there will be an option now. And as a result you would then have to draft from 6rd+ in order to fill the rest of your roster, so it's a risk to burn picks.

Yeah, so it's based on EOS rankings 1-5 = $25, 6-10 = $24, 11-15 = $23, etc. At 120+ = $1. Lol yeah, I drafted BTJ, Bowers, and held Brown from last season but he had a "breakout" season which is when a player moves up 75 spots (rankings) from their original contract price (he was $1). This is to mimic a player "holding out" for a new contract. I also drafted Goff who was put back into the FA pool this past season. So this offseason I just got hit with $91 in cap, which is 60% of my entire salary cap for those 4 guys lol

I'm hoping someone can make a deal once I put my trading block out there but if not, I have to hope this pick burning propsal gets approved. If it does, I could burn pick 2nd rd - 7th rd and have $40. That would allow me to keep everyone I want except Kirk. But then I only have my 1st rd pick and the remaining spots will have to come from Rd 8+, which is going to be scraps lol

Or, I still cut (Scary, Kirk, Olave) and only burn $12 worth of picks and that would leave me with picks 1.02, 2.04, 2.08, 3.01, 3.11.

Or I keep Olave, burn $25 in picks and have 1.02, 2.02, 2.08.

So there are some options, I'm just not sure what the best would be. Cutting the 3 guys still leaves me with 5 picks that I can potentially replace them with in the draft as there will be rookies and vets that have been cut/dropped. 2nd option allows me to keep a young WR and I still have 3 strong early picks.

I apologize if its in these posts somewhere, I'd need to know the schedule of what draft picks cost. And what that leads to is, the cost versus replacement. For example, I don't understand why you would keep Goff. Why he's not an automatic release. The cost of his replacement seems highly likely to be much cheaper. Or is it, that you are forced to keep Goff? But I can't think of a good reason why the league would have that rule.

 

[joey]

PPR league - which side:

Tee Higgins or Bucky Irving?

Even. Depending on team needs, I could see either side making sense.

 

[pinkstapler]

He just moved in my league (14 team standard) in the current deal.

KWIII - 3.11

for

Etienne - 27 4th - 27 1st (from leagues current champion)

Felt quite cheap for Walker to me.

Is that a 2027 4th and 1st? Do people trade that far out?

It's reddit, so take it with heaps of salt, but the past month has been a flame turning into a wild fire that "2026 is currently projecting as one of the worst draft classes ever". It is backed up by some numbers/sound minded projection. Eg. Apparently, a popular metric among DEVY WR scouting projections are for early declare WRs to break 800 receiving yards. Next years class had 0 do that. I haven't looked myself, but apparently HS/college testing numbers also show 0 "physical specimens/freaks". So even if some WRs do show out this year in college, they won't check the early breakout box and likely won't test with stellar numbers, so it hurts their analytical profile overall.

And while the QB class looks like it could be better than this year (which isn't a very high bar to get over); none of them were among the top 10 Heisman finalists like previous early QB classes (Young/Stroud/Williams/Maye as an example). Also the popular belief is that Arch will start at least two years at Texas before coming out, putting him in the 2027 class. This was strongly insinuated from his family/camp as well.

So yeah, especially people already looking ahead to 26 and 27 draft classes, it's becoming very popular to focus on acquiring picks in 2027 if possible.

 

[JoeJoe88]

PPR league - which side:

Tee Higgins or Bucky Irving?

Man, that feels about as even a trade as you can find to me. Flip a coin, really comes down to which position you needed more.

If I had to pick a side, Tee by the slightest of margins.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

hahaha yeah it is. Sorry, there was a lot of moving parts in the league so had to give some context lol

When you say picks counting against the cap, do you mean that they have a dollar value that gets added along with the player contracts? If so, no, they don't count against the cap but my proposal is asking that they do have a dollar value (not counting against the cap) but a value that we can now burn/forfeit in order to receive cap dollars instead of drafting a pick. So say a 2nd rd pick is valued at $8, I can now forefeit that pick and receive $8 in cap back and they'll skip my pick in the draft order. I'm hoping this gets approved bc it's not always easy to get a trade done for extra cap or for players due to their contracts. Which is in a way to force you to make cuts so more players go back in the pool. But at least there will be an option now. And as a result you would then have to draft from 6rd+ in order to fill the rest of your roster, so it's a risk to burn picks.

Yeah, so it's based on EOS rankings 1-5 = $25, 6-10 = $24, 11-15 = $23, etc. At 120+ = $1. Lol yeah, I drafted BTJ, Bowers, and held Brown from last season but he had a "breakout" season which is when a player moves up 75 spots (rankings) from their original contract price (he was $1). This is to mimic a player "holding out" for a new contract. I also drafted Goff who was put back into the FA pool this past season. So this offseason I just got hit with $91 in cap, which is 60% of my entire salary cap for those 4 guys lol

I'm hoping someone can make a deal once I put my trading block out there but if not, I have to hope this pick burning propsal gets approved. If it does, I could burn pick 2nd rd - 7th rd and have $40. That would allow me to keep everyone I want except Kirk. But then I only have my 1st rd pick and the remaining spots will have to come from Rd 8+, which is going to be scraps lol

Or, I still cut (Scary, Kirk, Olave) and only burn $12 worth of picks and that would leave me with picks 1.02, 2.04, 2.08, 3.01, 3.11.

Or I keep Olave, burn $25 in picks and have 1.02, 2.02, 2.08.

So there are some options, I'm just not sure what the best would be. Cutting the 3 guys still leaves me with 5 picks that I can potentially replace them with in the draft as there will be rookies and vets that have been cut/dropped. 2nd option allows me to keep a young WR and I still have 3 strong early picks.

I apologize if its in these posts somewhere, I'd need to know the schedule of what draft picks cost. And what that leads to is, the cost versus replacement. For example, I don't understand why you would keep Goff. Why he's not an automatic release. The cost of his replacement seems highly likely to be much cheaper. Or is it, that you are forced to keep Goff? But I can't think of a good reason why the league would have that rule.

It's a superflex league where QBs rule the SF position. If you don't have a 2nd QB, you don't really compete.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Off-topic, but when I lived in the Netherlands as a young man, I worked at a rose company called T.C. Van Kleef

Any relation @leevancleef?

 

[C & C]

hahaha yeah it is. Sorry, there was a lot of moving parts in the league so had to give some context lol

When you say picks counting against the cap, do you mean that they have a dollar value that gets added along with the player contracts? If so, no, they don't count against the cap but my proposal is asking that they do have a dollar value (not counting against the cap) but a value that we can now burn/forfeit in order to receive cap dollars instead of drafting a pick. So say a 2nd rd pick is valued at $8, I can now forefeit that pick and receive $8 in cap back and they'll skip my pick in the draft order. I'm hoping this gets approved bc it's not always easy to get a trade done for extra cap or for players due to their contracts. Which is in a way to force you to make cuts so more players go back in the pool. But at least there will be an option now. And as a result you would then have to draft from 6rd+ in order to fill the rest of your roster, so it's a risk to burn picks.

Yeah, so it's based on EOS rankings 1-5 = $25, 6-10 = $24, 11-15 = $23, etc. At 120+ = $1. Lol yeah, I drafted BTJ, Bowers, and held Brown from last season but he had a "breakout" season which is when a player moves up 75 spots (rankings) from their original contract price (he was $1). This is to mimic a player "holding out" for a new contract. I also drafted Goff who was put back into the FA pool this past season. So this offseason I just got hit with $91 in cap, which is 60% of my entire salary cap for those 4 guys lol

I'm hoping someone can make a deal once I put my trading block out there but if not, I have to hope this pick burning propsal gets approved. If it does, I could burn pick 2nd rd - 7th rd and have $40. That would allow me to keep everyone I want except Kirk. But then I only have my 1st rd pick and the remaining spots will have to come from Rd 8+, which is going to be scraps lol

Or, I still cut (Scary, Kirk, Olave) and only burn $12 worth of picks and that would leave me with picks 1.02, 2.04, 2.08, 3.01, 3.11.

Or I keep Olave, burn $25 in picks and have 1.02, 2.02, 2.08.

So there are some options, I'm just not sure what the best would be. Cutting the 3 guys still leaves me with 5 picks that I can potentially replace them with in the draft as there will be rookies and vets that have been cut/dropped. 2nd option allows me to keep a young WR and I still have 3 strong early picks.

I apologize if its in these posts somewhere, I'd need to know the schedule of what draft picks cost. And what that leads to is, the cost versus replacement. For example, I don't understand why you would keep Goff. Why he's not an automatic release. The cost of his replacement seems highly likely to be much cheaper. Or is it, that you are forced to keep Goff? But I can't think of a good reason why the league would have that rule.

As @InDitkaWeTrust stated, this is a superflex league and I've been burned too many times come playoffs where I did not have a 2nd quality starting QB.

I'm not sure what you mean by the schedule of the cost of draft picks. As of now you receive a pick for each round and there is no dollar value associated with the picks and they do not count towards our salary cap. What I'm trying to propose is that there is a $ value for each pick (still not counting towards our cap), for example a 1st = $10, 2nd = $8, 3rd = $6, 4th = $4, 5th = $2, 6th+ = $1. And this would now give us the ability to forfeit our picks and in return we receive the dollar value which will go towards our salary cap so we can keep/cut/trade as it is some times difficult to do.

To the Goff question again, I had just drafted him in 2024 as he was cut and put back into the FA pool. So his performance in 2024 determined what his contract will be for the next 3 seasons, which due to his run towards the end of the season, pushed him up the ranks of QBs and he will now cost me $23 to keep for the next 3yrs. I can cut him without any penalty but to find a replacement will be difficult, especially in a SF league and where everyone hoards QBs in general.

Ok, so drafting a player costs $0 versus the cap, but you can sell/sacrafice a pick for cap relief. Got it.

Yeah, i missed super-flex.

As you said, almost everyone is over the cap, they are going to have to make tough cuts too. I need to review your first post when i have more time but the general idea is if you can get the guy back at a reasonable cost (draft pick), then he is not worth keeping at the high salary even if you have to take a hit.

Its going to be hard to give more specific answers because we dont know your league dynamics. I've been in an auction contract dynasty/keeper league for 25 years. Love it and love these type of discussions but i dont bring those discussions here, despite the wealth of knowledge, because its too hard to describe the league dynamics to get highly insightful advice.

The veteran versus rookie draft dynamics should be interesting here. All but the top rookies should be severely discounted.

 

[eighsse2]

Off-topic, but when I lived in the Netherlands as a young man, I worked at a rose company called T.C. Van Kleef

Any relation @leevancleef?

haha nah. if youve ever watched the movie the good, the bad and the ugly triology, lee van cleef is one of the actors and he's in a bunch of the old spaghetti western movies. It was my handle on the old rotoworld forums before NBC sold it off. A lot people came over here and one of the guys who owns a betting site created a mirrored site of the forums and even though there's a good amount of people still active, it's unfortuantely just not the same.

Never heard of him, but Lee van Cleef sounds a lot like the Biblical phrase "leave and cleave".

 

[Born to Run]

Just got offered Chase Brown for my Ken Walker, straight up. Brown is a year older, but has less wear -n- tear. I have Brown in the tier before Walker mostly because of competition for touches. Not sure why I got this offer. Could the owner be concerned with the Bengals picking up another back to compete? Thoughts?!

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Just got offered Chase Brown for my Ken Walker, straight up. Brown is a year older, but has less wear -n- tear. I have Brown in the tier before Walker mostly because of competition for touches. Not sure why I got this offer. Could the owner be concerned with the Bengals picking up another back to compete? Thoughts?!

Both of these guys are no doubt going to be in a RBBC. My preference is Walker, but I can understand preferring Brown.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Just got offered Chase Brown for my Ken Walker, straight up. Brown is a year older, but has less wear -n- tear. I have Brown in the tier before Walker mostly because of competition for touches. Not sure why I got this offer. Could the owner be concerned with the Bengals picking up another back to compete? Thoughts?!

I have something similar in that I can only keep one of the two in my keeper league. Close call either way, but in these cases my tiebreaker is usually who is in the more potent offense. So I'll probably keep Brown.

 

[nightmare]

I own both in different dynasty leagues. Give me C Brown-it's close.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I own 1.03 and 1.08 in a SF league (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, Flex, SF). Large rosters and benches. Current best RB on my roster is Najee, but strong at QB, WR, and TE.

Got offered JT for my 1.03 this afternoon. I think it's close, but objectively it doesn't make my team one of the top 3 in the league so I think I need to take BPA at 1.03 (likely Sanders/Hampton/Tet) and then a RB at 1.08. Would you take the offer knowing it will put you in the upper half of the league, but as of right now, wouldn't put you in the top 2-3?

 

[mjb03003]

I own 1.03 and 1.08 in a SF league (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, Flex, SF). Large rosters and benches. Current best RB on my roster is Najee, but strong at QB, WR, and TE.

Got offered JT for my 1.03 this afternoon. I think it's close, but objectively it doesn't make my team one of the top 3 in the league so I think I need to take BPA at 1.03 (likely Sanders/Hampton/Tet) and then a RB at 1.08. Would you take the offer knowing it will put you in the upper half of the league, but as of right now, wouldn't put you in the top 2-3?

I think if you sit on the pick for now, better offers will come.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I own 1.03 and 1.08 in a SF league (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, Flex, SF). Large rosters and benches. Current best RB on my roster is Najee, but strong at QB, WR, and TE.

Got offered JT for my 1.03 this afternoon. I think it's close, but objectively it doesn't make my team one of the top 3 in the league so I think I need to take BPA at 1.03 (likely Sanders/Hampton/Tet) and then a RB at 1.08. Would you take the offer knowing it will put you in the upper half of the league, but as of right now, wouldn't put you in the top 2-3?

I think if you sit on the pick for now, better offers will come.

I would rather have Hampton than JT but JT probably over the others. Can those 3 flexes all be RBs?

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I own 1.03 and 1.08 in a SF league (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, Flex, SF). Large rosters and benches. Current best RB on my roster is Najee, but strong at QB, WR, and TE.

Got offered JT for my 1.03 this afternoon. I think it's close, but objectively it doesn't make my team one of the top 3 in the league so I think I need to take BPA at 1.03 (likely Sanders/Hampton/Tet) and then a RB at 1.08. Would you take the offer knowing it will put you in the upper half of the league, but as of right now, wouldn't put you in the top 2-3?

I think if you sit on the pick for now, better offers will come.

I would rather have Hampton than JT but JT probably over the others. Can those 3 flexes all be RBs?

Yes, rb, wr, or te. Usually makes more sense to load the flex spots up with wrs, though because rb scarcity is a thing in this league.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Just got offered Chase Brown for my Ken Walker, straight up. Brown is a year older, but has less wear -n- tear. I have Brown in the tier before Walker mostly because of competition for touches. Not sure why I got this offer. Could the owner be concerned with the Bengals picking up another back to compete? Thoughts?!

Walker>Brown for me.

 

[joey]

I own 1.03 and 1.08 in a SF league (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, Flex, SF). Large rosters and benches. Current best RB on my roster is Najee, but strong at QB, WR, and TE.

Got offered JT for my 1.03 this afternoon. I think it's close, but objectively it doesn't make my team one of the top 3 in the league so I think I need to take BPA at 1.03 (likely Sanders/Hampton/Tet) and then a RB at 1.08. Would you take the offer knowing it will put you in the upper half of the league, but as of right now, wouldn't put you in the top 2-3?

I think if you sit on the pick for now, better offers will come.

I would rather have Hampton than JT but JT probably over the others. Can those 3 flexes all be RBs?

Agreed to sit on the 1.03 pick and likely take Hampton at your pick.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

Just got offered Chase Brown for my Ken Walker, straight up. Brown is a year older, but has less wear -n- tear. I have Brown in the tier before Walker mostly because of competition for touches. Not sure why I got this offer. Could the owner be concerned with the Bengals picking up another back to compete? Thoughts?!

Walker>Brown for me.

I don't think the Bengals will add anyone significant after signing Perine. They might use a late pick on a back, but I do not feel that will threaten Brown's role. The Bengals should be going defensive-heavy in the draft. I suppose this could be a bait trade offer. He could be thinking you will counter. He is most likely willing to give up more for Walker. Perhaps he is thinking that, in a Klint Kubiak offense, Walker will outplay expectations. If you like Brown and want to acquire him, I would at least like a little more. Nothing crazy, but something needs to be added, in my opinion.

 

[menobrown]

Just got offered Chase Brown for my Ken Walker, straight up. Brown is a year older, but has less wear -n- tear. I have Brown in the tier before Walker mostly because of competition for touches. Not sure why I got this offer. Could the owner be concerned with the Bengals picking up another back to compete? Thoughts?!

Walker>Brown for me.

I have two teams with both Walker and Brown. Right now, for next season, I do prefer Brown. But I've never even considered preferring Brown over Walker in a longer term dynasty outlook.

 

[Magnum83]

Cade Otton value check....

I have McBride and Kmet. Offered Otton for my 3.09. I plan on using that pick for an RB (old room: Conner; CMC; Mixon; Warren). Is that worth taking?

 

[menobrown]

Cade Otton value check....

I have McBride and Kmet. Offered Otton for my 3.09. I plan on using that pick for an RB (old room: Conner; CMC; Mixon; Warren). Is that worth taking?

IMO no, not even if it's TEP.

Really only did anything in the first few games immediately after Evans and Godwin went down. I mean if you want to take a positive outlook that showed if they need him he can be a reliable piece, but he's probably going to be competing with a RB for 4th in team targets.

 

[Birdie048]

Cade Otton value check....

I have McBride and Kmet. Offered Otton for my 3.09. I plan on using that pick for an RB (old room: Conner; CMC; Mixon; Warren). Is that worth taking?

IMO no, not even if it's TEP.

Really only did anything in the first few games immediately after Evans and Godwin went down. I mean if you want to take a positive outlook that showed if they need him he can be a reliable piece, but he's probably going to be competing with a RB for 4th in team targets.

Agree here. As an Otton owner, his value is dropping due to the depth of rookie TE in this class. Otton lost his OC and became an afterthought to the run game as an extra blocker. Pass

 

[JoeJoe88]

Cade Otton value check....

I have McBride and Kmet. Offered Otton for my 3.09. I plan on using that pick for an RB (old room: Conner; CMC; Mixon; Warren). Is that worth taking?

3.09>Otton.

 

[steelcityman]

I have Estime and Jv Williams as a pick one for my final cuts for FFPC league. Both DAL and DEN are said to be in the RB draft sweepstakes, with either possibly taking Jeanty.
Who should I keep? Neither did much last year. Estime is younger. Williams should be better, but hasnt shown it.
I can probably trade Williams and get a mid rd pick, doubt I can get anything for Big 'Dric.

 

[joey]

I have Estime and Jv Williams as a pick one for my final cuts for FFPC league. Both DAL and DEN are said to be in the RB draft sweepstakes, with either possibly taking Jeanty.
Who should I keep? Neither did much last year. Estime is younger. Williams should be better, but hasnt shown it.
I can probably trade Williams and get a mid rd pick, doubt I can get anything for Big 'Dric.

I’m facing this in a couple of leagues and I’m keeping Javonte….because I flipped a coin

 

[titusbramble]

Superflex question - I have the 1.04, and am incredibly set at WR/TE right now, two questions:

a) What level of RB or QB would you give up to trade into that spot straight up
b) If you held the pick, what would you be looking for in addition to something like the 1.07/1.08 to move down a few spots?

This may change if either of the OSU backs get an elite landing spot in the real draft, I'm just incredibly scared of our draft starting Jeanty/Ward/Hampton in some order given I have really no interest in Tet and close to the same interest in Burden at that spot, so trying to gauge what I should be looking for as a cash out if it comes to that

 

[JohnnyU]

Superflex question - I have the 1.04, and am incredibly set at WR/TE right now, two questions:

a) What level of RB or QB would you give up to trade into that spot straight up
b) If you held the pick, what would you be looking for in addition to something like the 1.07/1.08 to move down a few spots?

This may change if either of the OSU backs get an elite landing spot in the real draft, I'm just incredibly scared of our draft starting Jeanty/Ward/Hampton in some order given I have really no interest in Tet and close to the same interest in Burden at that spot, so trying to gauge what I should be looking for as a cash out if it comes to that

Now for you readers out there, pay attention, this is how you phrase an asst coach post in the shark pool.

If you don’t want TET, I wouldn’t have any problem drafting Henderson or Judkins at 1.04, in that order, if the scenario you mentioned plays out.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Superflex question - I have the 1.04, and am incredibly set at WR/TE right now, two questions:

a) What level of RB or QB would you give up to trade into that spot straight up
b) If you held the pick, what would you be looking for in addition to something like the 1.07/1.08 to move down a few spots?

This may change if either of the OSU backs get an elite landing spot in the real draft, I'm just incredibly scared of our draft starting Jeanty/Ward/Hampton in some order given I have really no interest in Tet and close to the same interest in Burden at that spot, so trying to gauge what I should be looking for as a cash out if it comes to that

I'm not sure you'll get a ton of traction trading out of the 1.04 spot because teams that are QB needy will want to move up higher and teams that are WR/RB/TE needy will likely stay put because of perceived rookie depth in the 1st. 1.04 is a classic "take BPA" slot and then worry about roster build in-season.

 

[efactor]

Devy question:

Any sites that rank 2025-2027 classes together for dynasty? Trying to get an idea of value of 2025 vs 2026-2027. Plenty of rankings for 2025 and for 2026-2027 Devy, but nothing that shows them all matched up.

Thanks in advance,

 

[King of the Jungle]

Devy question:

Any sites that rank 2025-2027 classes together for dynasty? Trying to get an idea of value of of 2025 vs 2026-2027. Plenty of rankings for 2025 and for 2026-2027 Devy, but nothing that shows them all matched up.

Thanks in advance,

Not combined, but a glimpse from @JohnnyU LINK

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Anyone trading for Chris Olave as a high risk high reward kind of target? Considering lobbing up the 2.04 (superflex TEP) to the current owner to see where he stands.

 

[joey]

Anyone trading for Chris Olave as a high risk high reward kind of target? Considering lobbing up the 2.04 (superflex TEP) to the current owner to see where he stands.

I have him in 3 leagues (1 SF, 2 not. All FFPC) and I think it depends on your WR strength and depth.
In all my leagues where I roster him, I don’t feel deep enough at WR to sell and take a 2nd. I’d rather just roll the dice and hold on for his upside and hope he stays healthy.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

Are you willing to overpay for a player (via trade) if you believe that player is on the verge of breaking out? Or should you only overpay for a player that has already broken out? The degree of overpay needs to be discussed. You overpay, but not to the degree of overpaying for a player already broken out. The concept is that you overpay to a smaller degree for a non-broken-out player. This is not something I do often, but I have done it now and then in the past. I'm curious about how other dynasty managers approached this concept.

For instance, take a tight end like Isaiah Likely. He is in a contract year. He is clearly talented, and Mark Andrews is also on a contract year( Chalire Kolar as well ). I see Isaiah Likley as a breakout this season or next. There is plenty of slip between a cup and lip that can go wrong for Likley, but I just overpaid for him after a back-and-forth with another manager, which took about a month to complete the deal. The main part of the negotiations took four days. We had been lightly talking for at least a month. His value, according to charts, was lower. I don't like looking at trade charts too extensively because of the lack of control of the parameters of such charts and analyzers, and it takes the fun out of it for me. I always look after. I did look at a few during the conversations, and I was clearly overpaying. I did notice, though, that the price was going up over 30 days in completed trades.

What are your views and ideas on this concept?

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Are you willing to overpay for a player (via trade) if you believe that player is on the verge of breaking out? Or should you only overpay for a player that has already broken out? The degree of overpay needs to be discussed. You overpay but not to the degree of overpay for a player that has already broken out. The concept being you overpay to a smaller degree for a non-broken out player. This is not something I do often but I have done now and then in the past. I'm curious how other dynasty managers approach this concept.

For instance, take a tight end like Isaiah Likely. He is in a contract year. He is clearly talented and Mark Andrews is also on a contract year( Chalire Koler as well ). I see Isaiah Likley as a breakout this season or next. There is plenty of slip between a cup and lip so plenty can go wrong for Likley, but I just overpaid for him after a back and forth with another manager which took about a month to complete the deal. The main part of the negotiations took four days. We had been lightly talking for at least a month. His value according to charts was lower. I don't like looking at trade charts to extensively because lack of control of the parameters of such charts and analyzers., and it takes the fun out of it for me. I always look after. I did look at a few during the conversations and I was clearly overpaying. I did notice though in completed trades the price was going up over a 30 day period.

What are your views and ideas on this concept?

#1. Get your guy. The joy brought by getting "your guy" and him doing well completely outshines the sadness of him busting. You'll forget about that bust much more quickly than the guy you hand picked to break out.
#2. Overpayment is relative. For a guy like Likely, I assume that the overpay was probably the difference between a low first and a high second. In the grand scheme of things, that's not a ton.
#3 Aside from analyzing your own trade habits to better understand weaknesses, I don't tend to go back and evaluate trades after the fact. Sure, use the body of work to help figure out any weaknesses you may have in playing this fake sport. Otherwise, comparison is the thief of joy.
#4 Thanks for using a new idiom that I've never heard! I had to look up the meaning of "plenty of slip between cup and lip".

 

[osubuckeyeman]

Anyone trading for Chris Olave as a high risk high reward kind of target? Considering lobbing up the 2.04 (superflex TEP) to the current owner to see where he stands.

I love Olave and have followed him since his Ohio State days, but he is a player I'm avoiding. The concussions and Carr maybe have taken his last snap in New Orleans is just too much for me. Breaking in a rookie QB or some bridge QB, then the rookie, is just more than my tolerance can bear. I think his price should come down, but managers might be reluctant to do deals for lesser prices right now with everything in the air. I'm avoiding him 100%.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

Are you willing to overpay for a player (via trade) if you believe that player is on the verge of breaking out? Or should you only overpay for a player that has already broken out? The degree of overpay needs to be discussed. You overpay but not to the degree of overpay for a player that has already broken out. The concept being you overpay to a smaller degree for a non-broken out player. This is not something I do often but I have done now and then in the past. I'm curious how other dynasty managers approach this concept.

For instance, take a tight end like Isaiah Likely. He is in a contract year. He is clearly talented and Mark Andrews is also on a contract year( Chalire Koler as well ). I see Isaiah Likley as a breakout this season or next. There is plenty of slip between a cup and lip so plenty can go wrong for Likley, but I just overpaid for him after a back and forth with another manager which took about a month to complete the deal. The main part of the negotiations took four days. We had been lightly talking for at least a month. His value according to charts was lower. I don't like looking at trade charts to extensively because lack of control of the parameters of such charts and analyzers., and it takes the fun out of it for me. I always look after. I did look at a few during the conversations and I was clearly overpaying. I did notice though in completed trades the price was going up over a 30 day period.

What are your views and ideas on this concept?

#1. Get your guy. The joy brought by getting "your guy" and him doing well completely outshines the sadness of him busting. You'll forget about that bust much more quickly than the guy you hand picked to break out.
#2. Overpayment is relative. For a guy like Likely, I assume that the overpay was probably the difference between a low first and a high second. In the grand scheme of things, that's not a ton.
#3 Aside from analyzing your own trade habits to better understand weaknesses, I don't tend to go back and evaluate trades after the fact. Sure, use the body of work to help figure out any weaknesses you may have in playing this fake sport. Otherwise, comparison is the thief of joy.
#4 Thanks for using a new idiom that I've never heard! I had to look up the meaning of "plenty of slip between cup and lip".

I assume that the overpay was probably the difference between a low first and a high second.

2025 2.11, 2025 3.7, and 2026 2nd.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Are you willing to overpay for a player (via trade) if you believe that player is on the verge of breaking out? Or should you only overpay for a player that has already broken out? The degree of overpay needs to be discussed. You overpay but not to the degree of overpay for a player that has already broken out. The concept being you overpay to a smaller degree for a non-broken out player. This is not something I do often but I have done now and then in the past. I'm curious how other dynasty managers approach this concept.

For instance, take a tight end like Isaiah Likely. He is in a contract year. He is clearly talented and Mark Andrews is also on a contract year( Chalire Koler as well ). I see Isaiah Likley as a breakout this season or next. There is plenty of slip between a cup and lip so plenty can go wrong for Likley, but I just overpaid for him after a back and forth with another manager which took about a month to complete the deal. The main part of the negotiations took four days. We had been lightly talking for at least a month. His value according to charts was lower. I don't like looking at trade charts to extensively because lack of control of the parameters of such charts and analyzers., and it takes the fun out of it for me. I always look after. I did look at a few during the conversations and I was clearly overpaying. I did notice though in completed trades the price was going up over a 30 day period.

What are your views and ideas on this concept?

#1. Get your guy. The joy brought by getting "your guy" and him doing well completely outshines the sadness of him busting. You'll forget about that bust much more quickly than the guy you hand picked to break out.
#2. Overpayment is relative. For a guy like Likely, I assume that the overpay was probably the difference between a low first and a high second. In the grand scheme of things, that's not a ton.
#3 Aside from analyzing your own trade habits to better understand weaknesses, I don't tend to go back and evaluate trades after the fact. Sure, use the body of work to help figure out any weaknesses you may have in playing this fake sport. Otherwise, comparison is the thief of joy.
#4 Thanks for using a new idiom that I've never heard! I had to look up the meaning of "plenty of slip between cup and lip".

I assume that the overpay was probably the difference between a low first and a high second.

2025 2.11, 2025 3.7, and 2026 2nd.

Yeah, I don't consider that an overpay. Likely is clearly talented and there will be some change in the TE situation in Baltimore in 25 or 26. I think it's a smart gamble.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

CMC for a 27 1st? I'm a contender in need of a RB. Worth the risk?

 

[osubuckeyeman]

CMC for a 27 1st? I'm a contender in need of a RB. Worth the risk?

Yes. Why not? You have 2 years to recoup that pick.

 

[King of the Jungle]

CMC for a 27 1st? I'm a contender in need of a RB. Worth the risk?

You will regret it probably sooner than later, but if it gives you a shot then you can live with it. Not a trade that I would personally make, however I rarely give future assets for instant gratification (not saying I am right in that thought).

 

[menobrown]

CMC for a 27 1st? I'm a contender in need of a RB. Worth the risk?

I’d rather give a 2026 first

 

[mzkp54]

David Montgomery price check?

 

[Mitchie]

Anyone trading for Chris Olave as a high risk high reward kind of target? Considering lobbing up the 2.04 (superflex TEP) to the current owner to see where he stands.

We still have no idea who the QB will be, if they take a QB in 1st round that will help, or maybe there's a chance they sign Cousins or another decent vet, although not too many of those available. If they did either of those things, that could work out better than 'hospital ball' Carr. But if the draft comes and goes and looks like they're tanking and are rolling out the Rattler or someone similar that would be problematic.

 

[-OZ-]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

Assuming it's a 1QB league, Fantasypros ADP for Ward is 13, Sanders is 15 and Dart is 22, all with a huge standard deviation. I think that's higher than they will go in a LOT of leagues, but I'm not sure 34, 35, and 42 is realistic either. I would expect in a 16 team league that there will be GMs who have a lower tier starting QB reaching for Ward/Sanders/Dart in the 2nd. As always, the ADP will change depending on landing spot.

 

[menobrown]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

 

[ex-ghost]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

 

[menobrown]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

 

[ex-ghost]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.