Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)

[Mitchie]

Anyone trading for Chris Olave as a high risk high reward kind of target? Considering lobbing up the 2.04 (superflex TEP) to the current owner to see where he stands.

We still have no idea who the QB will be, if they take a QB in 1st round that will help, or maybe there's a chance they sign Cousins or another decent vet, although not too many of those available. If they did either of those things, that could work out better than 'hospital ball' Carr. But if the draft comes and goes and looks like they're tanking and are rolling out the Rattler or someone similar that would be problematic.

 

[-OZ-]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

Assuming it's a 1QB league, Fantasypros ADP for Ward is 13, Sanders is 15 and Dart is 22, all with a huge standard deviation. I think that's higher than they will go in a LOT of leagues, but I'm not sure 34, 35, and 42 is realistic either. I would expect in a 16 team league that there will be GMs who have a lower tier starting QB reaching for Ward/Sanders/Dart in the 2nd. As always, the ADP will change depending on landing spot.

 

[menobrown]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

 

[ex-ghost]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

 

[menobrown]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

 

[ex-ghost]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

 

[-OZ-]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

Send crazy to have QBs make up 1/4 of your team unless there’s no IDP and it’s SF.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

 

[menobrown]

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

In a one start QB league?

 

[-OZ-]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

I’d take the Allen side for the reasons you described.

 

[-OZ-]

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

In a one start QB league?

Yeah, I don’t get that in small roster 1 QB leagues. I happen to have 5 QBs in a 16 team IDP league but that’s with 55 players on the roster, 3 of my QBs will be cut before the season - most likely I start the season with Penix and cousins, and maybe a rookie if there’s value.

 

[menobrown]

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

I’d take the Allen side for the reasons you described.

I was so focused on someone saying they needed to roster that many QB's I neglected the question.

Agree with Oz and easily so.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

In a one start QB league?

Yes, sorry... I thought that was what we were talking about.

Nothing says you have to roster 5 but the limit is 5. I only roster 2 QB's and they both suck. I'd rather fill out my 2WR, 2RB, 4Flex before looking at a better QB. In any event, it has proven to work well in this league.

 

[smbkrypt24]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

Due to your league settings with cut downs...Spears, Dell, 3.10 hold very little value. If I was the trade partner I would prefer they weren't part of and put something of real value there. Saying that AJ Brown for Josh Allen isn't far off. So knock off the 2.02 because that is on the wrong side.

 

[menobrown]

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

In a one start QB league?

Yes, sorry... I thought that was what we were talking about.

Nothing says you have to roster 5 but the limit is 5. I only roster 2 QB's and they both suck. I'd rather fill out my 2WR, 2RB, 4Flex before looking at a better QB. In any event, it has proven to work well in this league.

Ok gotcha, thought you were saying you needed to carve out 4 roster spots for QB's.

 

[Raging weasel]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

I was told it was a bad move by me not to accept 1.08 1.10 and 2026 1st for Allen but there's a chance that team feels the same way. Think about what you would want for Brown draft pick wise and start there.

 

[kutta]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

I was told it was a bad move by me not to accept 1.08 1.10 and 2026 1st for Allen but there's a chance that team feels the same way. Think about what you would want for Brown draft pick wise and start there.

AJ Brown, Spears, Dell, and a 3rd are nowhere close to three firsts. AND the Allen side in the trade is getting the 2.02.

You should have taken the three firsts. This offer is off by quite a bit.

 

[ex-ghost]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

Send crazy to have QBs make up 1/4 of your team unless there’s no IDP and it’s SF.

5 qb max is the MOST you can have, not what you have to have.

 

[joey]

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line?

Not even close to the value of Josh Allen. And the 2.02 is not only on the wrong side, it should be a high 1st rounder on the other side to even warrant a counteroffer, if that.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line?

Not even close to the value of Josh Allen. And the 2.02 is not only on the wrong side, it should be a high 1st rounder on the other side to even warrant a counteroffer, if that.

So, valuation in a 1QB PPR league for Josh Allen is a 1st round pick, WR14, 3.10 in 2025 and however you feel about Tank Dell and Tyjae Spears - cool.

I don't know if this trade goes through but by saying this - you are saying KTC is 7,500 points off on their valuation?

I just don't know... what do people normally do in Dynasty with guys like Tyjae Spears, Tony Pollard, Tank Dell, Marvin Mims type players? Just sit on them and release them when it is confirmed they aren't any good? Yes, I am selling these players because I don't think they are any good. I am selling now before the draft, as I don't want to be holding Tyjae Spears if they draft an RB. I don't think his value, as a starter, outweighs the worst outcome - 3rd on a pecking order of a bad football team.

KTC has Tyjae Spears worth the same as 2.10 (Tank Dell is valued the same).

If I gave you 2.09 and 2.10 to move up to your 2.02 - would you do it? I think most people would entertain that trade. Now that we have that out of the way, theory says the difference between AJ Brown + Josh Allen is a 1st and 3rd round pick? I keep wondering if you are reading somewhere that this is a superflex league... this is 1QB - PPR with 2RB/2WR/4FLEX/TE.

Either way, if you are going to evaluate a trade or talk Dynasty Value Discussion - maybe throwing ANY analysis into the mix might be more prudent than saying "pony up an early first if you even want the chance of a counteroffer" - I'll tag you if the trade goes down because you are absolutely my inspiration to get this done by not including a 1st.

 

[joey]

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line?

Not even close to the value of Josh Allen. And the 2.02 is not only on the wrong side, it should be a high 1st rounder on the other side to even warrant a counteroffer, if that.

So, valuation in a 1QB PPR league for Josh Allen is a 1st round pick, WR14, 3.10 in 2025 and however you feel about Tank Dell and Tyjae Spears - cool.

I don't know if this trade goes through but by saying this - you are saying KTC is 7,500 points off on their valuation?

I just don't know... what do people normally do in Dynasty with guys like Tyjae Spears, Tony Pollard, Tank Dell, Marvin Mims type players? Just sit on them and release them when it is confirmed they aren't any good? Yes, I am selling these players because I don't think they are any good. I am selling now before the draft, as I don't want to be holding Tyjae Spears if they draft an RB. I don't think his value, as a starter, outweighs the worst outcome - 3rd on a pecking order of a bad football team.

KTC has Tyjae Spears worth the same as 2.10 (Tank Dell is valued the same).

If I gave you 2.09 and 2.10 to move up to your 2.02 - would you do it? I think most people would entertain that trade. Now that we have that out of the way, theory says the difference between AJ Brown + Josh Allen is a 1st and 3rd round pick? I keep wondering if you are reading somewhere that this is a superflex league... this is 1QB - PPR with 2RB/2WR/4FLEX/TE.

Either way, if you are going to evaluate a trade or talk Dynasty Value Discussion - maybe throwing ANY analysis into the mix might be more prudent than saying "pony up an early first if you even want the chance of a counteroffer" - I'll tag you if the trade goes down because you are absolutely my inspiration to get this done by not including a 1st.

Yeah, sorry. My post was a little short. I don’t think I’ve ever gotten such a visceral response to one of my posts here since I believe I’m generally seen as a polite, collaborative and often silly (read: stupid) poster. All that said….ill expand a bit…


I didn’t misread as SuperFlex. I guess what I’m saying is that, even in 1QB, Josh Allen is such a strategic advantage at that position as a running and throwing QB who still has many years ahead of him, that I’m not giving him away without an early/mid-first as part of the deal. I think AJ Brown is definitely a quality piece in the mix since he’s not too old, but Spears and Dell don’t move the needle for me at all. Spears…hell, you’re worried they’ll draft his replacement, so why would a trade partner not feel the same way. And I’m trading away my Uber-stud, set and forget, QB for the next 5 years to have Spears likely clog my roster?

An important point I should’ve started with is that I mostly play in FFPC-style leagues (keep 16 players) with short-ish 20 player rosters, so that definitely biases me to KEEP a stud like Allen so I only need to carry 1 QB in the off-season and then redraft a decent backup for his bye week.


Hope the above qualifies me to continue posting in the Dynasty Value Thread.

 

[joey]

To add a little more (now you got me going)


Allen >> AJBrown + Spears + Dell + 3.10
So why am I throwing in the 2.02?

If you replace AJ Brown with a young uberstud WR like Nabers, then I’m listening. But I had better have another really good QB waiting in the wings to give up on the dynasty QB1, AND I better have a big need at WR.

(Of course the above valuations are just MY opinion as I’m admittedly not high on AJ Brown while others might be)

 

[-OZ-]

5 qb max is the MOST you can have, not what you have to have.

Understood. It just seems weird to need that rule in 1 QB formats. Do you also have a maximum in other positions?

 

[ex-ghost]

5 qb max is the MOST you can have, not what you have to have.

Understood. It just seems weird to need that rule in 1 QB formats. Do you also have a maximum in other positions?

We do. 7RB, 8WR and 5TE. We have had some hoarders....

 

[-OZ-]

5 qb max is the MOST you can have, not what you have to have.

Understood. It just seems weird to need that rule in 1 QB formats. Do you also have a maximum in other positions?

We do. 7RB, 8WR and 5TE. We have had some hoarders....

Unlimited kickers!

 

[Hurl Bruce]

I want to make a play for the 1.01.

That owner wants to dump Anthony Richardson.

This is a SF league, and I am sitting with LJax, Nix, and Purdy.

Would Purdy and 1.12 be good value for 1.01 and ARich? I'm looking to grab Jeanty not Ward.

 

[JohnnyU]

I want to make a play for the 1.01.

That owner wants to dump Anthony Richardson.

This is a SF league, and I am sitting with LJax, Nix, and Purdy.

Would Purdy and 1.12 be good value for 1.01 and ARich? I'm looking to grab Jeanty not Ward.

Let’s see. I don’t think so. People aren’t exactly drooling over Purdy and despite ARs passing problems he still has attractive legs. I don’t think you’re close.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I want to make a play for the 1.01.

That owner wants to dump Anthony Richardson.

This is a SF league, and I am sitting with LJax, Nix, and Purdy.

Would Purdy and 1.12 be good value for 1.01 and ARich? I'm looking to grab Jeanty not Ward.

Let’s see. I don’t think so. People aren’t exactly drooling over Purdy and despite ARs passing problems he still has attractive legs. I don’t think you’re close.

This. Purdy is like Goff. He's a +QB2 in SF but neither of them command much in the way of trade capital. Both are guys that I seek out in SF leagues.

 

[JoeJoe88]

I want to make a play for the 1.01.

That owner wants to dump Anthony Richardson.

This is a SF league, and I am sitting with LJax, Nix, and Purdy.

Would Purdy and 1.12 be good value for 1.01 and ARich? I'm looking to grab Jeanty not Ward.

Let’s see. I don’t think so. People aren’t exactly drooling over Purdy and despite ARs passing problems he still has attractive legs. I don’t think you’re close.

This. Purdy is like Goff. He's a +QB2 in SF but neither of them command much in the way of trade capital. Both are guys that I seek out in SF leagues.

Purdy is criminally undervalued in dynasty.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

I was told it was a bad move by me not to accept 1.08 1.10 and 2026 1st for Allen but there's a chance that team feels the same way. Think about what you would want for Brown draft pick wise and start there.

AJ Brown, Spears, Dell, and a 3rd are nowhere close to three firsts. AND the Allen side in the trade is getting the 2.02.

You should have taken the three firsts. This offer is off by quite

To add a little more (now you got me going)


Allen >> AJBrown + Spears + Dell + 3.10
So why am I throwing in the 2.02?

If you replace AJ Brown with a young uberstud WR like Nabers, then I’m listening. But I had better have another really good QB waiting in the wings to give up on the dynasty QB1, AND I better have a big need at WR.

(Of course the above valuations are just MY opinion as I’m admittedly not high on AJ Brown while others might be)

Yeah, I'm not sure where the disconnect is because obviously we agree at some points, Josh Allen is the player to be had in this trade. I think youre significantly undervaluing the need for depth and the variance in value between QB1 and WR14 when you are starting 8 skills players every week.

PPR startup drafts show AJ Brown ranked 14 and Josh Allen ranked 24. It's a 10 team 1 QB PPR league. If we can just say the disparity is less than dropping his 2.02 and having a high first going the other way, we can probably forget this conversation exists. I could agree to dropping the 2.02 and considering moving my 3rd into a 2nd but no QB in 1QB standard scoring/ppr format is what you're valuing Josh Allen at...

 

[joey]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

I was told it was a bad move by me not to accept 1.08 1.10 and 2026 1st for Allen but there's a chance that team feels the same way. Think about what you would want for Brown draft pick wise and start there.

AJ Brown, Spears, Dell, and a 3rd are nowhere close to three firsts. AND the Allen side in the trade is getting the 2.02.

You should have taken the three firsts. This offer is off by quite

To add a little more (now you got me going)


Allen >> AJBrown + Spears + Dell + 3.10
So why am I throwing in the 2.02?

If you replace AJ Brown with a young uberstud WR like Nabers, then I’m listening. But I had better have another really good QB waiting in the wings to give up on the dynasty QB1, AND I better have a big need at WR.

(Of course the above valuations are just MY opinion as I’m admittedly not high on AJ Brown while others might be)

Yeah, I'm not sure where the disconnect is because obviously we agree at some points, Josh Allen is the player to be had in this trade. I think youre significantly undervaluing the need for depth and the variance in value between QB1 and WR14 when you are starting 8 skills players every week.

PPR startup drafts show AJ Brown ranked 14 and Josh Allen ranked 24. It's a 10 team 1 QB PPR league. If we can just say the disparity is less than dropping his 2.02 and having a high first going the other way, we can probably forget this conversation exists. I could agree to dropping the 2.02 and considering moving my 3rd into a 2nd but no QB in 1QB standard scoring/ppr format is what you're valuing Josh Allen at...

Ha. In a 10 team league, where Uber-studs are even MORE valuable, Josh Allen as your QB is GOLD, imo.
Who are the other QBs on their roster?

 

[joey]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

I was told it was a bad move by me not to accept 1.08 1.10 and 2026 1st for Allen but there's a chance that team feels the same way. Think about what you would want for Brown draft pick wise and start there.

AJ Brown, Spears, Dell, and a 3rd are nowhere close to three firsts. AND the Allen side in the trade is getting the 2.02.

You should have taken the three firsts. This offer is off by quite

To add a little more (now you got me going)


Allen >> AJBrown + Spears + Dell + 3.10
So why am I throwing in the 2.02?

If you replace AJ Brown with a young uberstud WR like Nabers, then I’m listening. But I had better have another really good QB waiting in the wings to give up on the dynasty QB1, AND I better have a big need at WR.

(Of course the above valuations are just MY opinion as I’m admittedly not high on AJ Brown while others might be)

Yeah, I'm not sure where the disconnect is because obviously we agree at some points, Josh Allen is the player to be had in this trade. I think youre significantly undervaluing the need for depth and the variance in value between QB1 and WR14 when you are starting 8 skills players every week.

PPR startup drafts show AJ Brown ranked 14 and Josh Allen ranked 24. It's a 10 team 1 QB PPR league. If we can just say the disparity is less than dropping his 2.02 and having a high first going the other way, we can probably forget this conversation exists. I could agree to dropping the 2.02 and considering moving my 3rd into a 2nd but no QB in 1QB standard scoring/ppr format is what you're valuing Josh Allen at...

Ha. In a 10 team league, where Uber-studs are even MORE valuable, Josh Allen as your QB is GOLD, imo.
Who are the other QBs on their roster?

Ps. Would love for others to chime in on the value here to say how out of whack my love of Josh Allen is (I only have him in 1 of 4 dynasty leagues fwiw). I wouldn’t doubt my valuation is out of line with the majority. I’m just a dude typing on my couch on my iPad watching the Amazing Race

 

[32 Counter Pass]

So, valuation in a 1QB PPR league for Josh Allen is a 1st round pick, WR14, 3.10 in 2025 and however you feel about Tank Dell and Tyjae Spears - cool.

I don't know if this trade goes through but by saying this - you are saying KTC is 7,500 points off on their valuation?

I just don't know... what do people normally do in Dynasty with guys like Tyjae Spears, Tony Pollard, Tank Dell, Marvin Mims type players? Just sit on them and release them when it is confirmed they aren't any good? Yes, I am selling these players because I don't think they are any good. I am selling now before the draft, as I don't want to be holding Tyjae Spears if they draft an RB. I don't think his value, as a starter, outweighs the worst outcome - 3rd on a pecking order of a bad football team.

KTC has Tyjae Spears worth the same as 2.10 (Tank Dell is valued the same).

If I gave you 2.09 and 2.10 to move up to your 2.02 - would you do it? I think most people would entertain that trade. Now that we have that out of the way, theory says the difference between AJ Brown + Josh Allen is a 1st and 3rd round pick? I keep wondering if you are reading somewhere that this is a superflex league... this is 1QB - PPR with 2RB/2WR/4FLEX/TE.

Either way, if you are going to evaluate a trade or talk Dynasty Value Discussion - maybe throwing ANY analysis into the mix might be more prudent than saying "pony up an early first if you even want the chance of a counteroffer" - I'll tag you if the trade goes down because you are absolutely my inspiration to get this done by not including a 1st.

You post a long response to your value question that you finished with “trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.”

Which is it? Are you trading garbage or value?

I agree with the earlier posts that this isn’t nearly enough for a counter. Allen offers nearly a 5 point advantage over 90% of all other fantasy QBs. None of the players you are offering offers his upside.

BTW, from experience I can tell you very few managers will agree with KTC.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

I was told it was a bad move by me not to accept 1.08 1.10 and 2026 1st for Allen but there's a chance that team feels the same way. Think about what you would want for Brown draft pick wise and start there.

AJ Brown, Spears, Dell, and a 3rd are nowhere close to three firsts. AND the Allen side in the trade is getting the 2.02.

You should have taken the three firsts. This offer is off by quite

To add a little more (now you got me going)


Allen >> AJBrown + Spears + Dell + 3.10
So why am I throwing in the 2.02?

If you replace AJ Brown with a young uberstud WR like Nabers, then I’m listening. But I had better have another really good QB waiting in the wings to give up on the dynasty QB1, AND I better have a big need at WR.

(Of course the above valuations are just MY opinion as I’m admittedly not high on AJ Brown while others might be)

Yeah, I'm not sure where the disconnect is because obviously we agree at some points, Josh Allen is the player to be had in this trade. I think youre significantly undervaluing the need for depth and the variance in value between QB1 and WR14 when you are starting 8 skills players every week.

PPR startup drafts show AJ Brown ranked 14 and Josh Allen ranked 24. It's a 10 team 1 QB PPR league. If we can just say the disparity is less than dropping his 2.02 and having a high first going the other way, we can probably forget this conversation exists. I could agree to dropping the 2.02 and considering moving my 3rd into a 2nd but no QB in 1QB standard scoring/ppr format is what you're valuing Josh Allen at...

Ha. In a 10 team league, where Uber-studs are even MORE valuable, Josh Allen as your QB is GOLD, imo.
Who are the other QBs on their roster?

I have checked various trade calculators, again - to try and get a baseline of Josh Allen's value because nobody is giving up a top 15 WR + a 1st round pick for 1QB in a dynasty league that starts 8 skills players. AJ Brown + 2025 2nd round pick has come out to equal value on every (3) site I have checked. His other QB's are Caleb Williams and Sam Darnold. The "uber stud" analogy you gave only applies to QB? Nothing about starting the WR15 over WR37, WR56, WR59, well... you get the point.

I don't really take issue with you having a difference in value but your approach was rude and off-base. The delta between AJ Brown + Josh Allen in dynasty isn't a first round pick. In start-ups, AJ Brown is going ahead of Josh Allen... Who would lead with that trade? Here is WR9 in Dynasty Rankings plus 1.05 (you said high first) for your Josh Allen, pre-NFL draft?

Again, had you said you'll probably have to turn that 3rd into a 2nd and drop the pick coming back, I probably would have agreed.

So, valuation in a 1QB PPR league for Josh Allen is a 1st round pick, WR14, 3.10 in 2025 and however you feel about Tank Dell and Tyjae Spears - cool.

I don't know if this trade goes through but by saying this - you are saying KTC is 7,500 points off on their valuation?

I just don't know... what do people normally do in Dynasty with guys like Tyjae Spears, Tony Pollard, Tank Dell, Marvin Mims type players? Just sit on them and release them when it is confirmed they aren't any good? Yes, I am selling these players because I don't think they are any good. I am selling now before the draft, as I don't want to be holding Tyjae Spears if they draft an RB. I don't think his value, as a starter, outweighs the worst outcome - 3rd on a pecking order of a bad football team.

KTC has Tyjae Spears worth the same as 2.10 (Tank Dell is valued the same).

If I gave you 2.09 and 2.10 to move up to your 2.02 - would you do it? I think most people would entertain that trade. Now that we have that out of the way, theory says the difference between AJ Brown + Josh Allen is a 1st and 3rd round pick? I keep wondering if you are reading somewhere that this is a superflex league... this is 1QB - PPR with 2RB/2WR/4FLEX/TE.

Either way, if you are going to evaluate a trade or talk Dynasty Value Discussion - maybe throwing ANY analysis into the mix might be more prudent than saying "pony up an early first if you even want the chance of a counteroffer" - I'll tag you if the trade goes down because you are absolutely my inspiration to get this done by not including a 1st.

You post a long response to your value question that you finished with “trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.”

Which is it? Are you trading garbage or value?

I agree with the earlier posts that this isn’t nearly enough for a counter. Allen offers nearly a 5 point advantage over 90% of all other fantasy QBs. None of the players you are offering offers his upside.

BTW, from experience I can tell you very few managers will agree with KTC.

Hah, fair enough. So, A.J. Brown for Josh Allen and 1.05 (or better)... I am out at that price.

2024 Points Per Game Stats:	2023 Points Per Game Stats:
Lamar Jackson 25.6 PPG	Josh Allen 24.2 PPG
Josh Allen 22.6 PPG	Jalen Hurts 21.9 PPG
Joe Burrow 22.5 PPG	Lamar Jackson 21.1 PPG
Baker Mayfield 22.5 PPG	Dak Prescott 20.7 PPG
Jayden Daniels 21.5 PPG	Jordan Love 19.9 PPG
Jalen Hurts 21.5 PPG	Brock Purdy 19.2 PPG

Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray were all within 5 PPG of Josh Allen in 2024

If you are a Josh Allen owner and you are sitting around waiting for someone to offer you a top 10 WR + a high 1st round pick - that is lunacy.

In order to really extract any amount of useful detail out of this conversation you and @joey would have to meet me in the middle on valuation discourse. I've offered the original trade, which still sits this morning. I blame myself for getting involved as far as this has gone by essentially arguing with myself, as neither of you have provided any datapoints or any type of valued analysis of the deal. In fact, to take it a step further - the information you are saying isn't even factual information. The delta between Josh Allen and QB5 isn't even 5 points per game not now, not last year, not 3 years ago...

AJ Brown was on track for 284 fantasy points last year - WR5 category
AJ Brown in 2023 - WR5
AJ Brown in 2022 - WR6

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

CMC for a 27 1st? I'm a contender in need of a RB. Worth the risk?

I’m out at any 1st for CMC.

Sure, it could be totally fair if he stays healthy, but that seems very unlikely.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I want to make a play for the 1.01.

That owner wants to dump Anthony Richardson.

This is a SF league, and I am sitting with LJax, Nix, and Purdy.

Would Purdy and 1.12 be good value for 1.01 and ARich? I'm looking to grab Jeanty not Ward.

Not enough. People are extremely high on Jeanty.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you are a Josh Allen owner and you are sitting around waiting for someone to offer you a top 10 WR + a high 1st round pick - that is lunacy.

As an AJB shareholder I wouldn’t expect to get back Allen for AJB + a high 1st. Not even close.

I don’t think that’s lunacy at all.

 

[-OZ-]

I want to make a play for the 1.01.

That owner wants to dump Anthony Richardson.

This is a SF league, and I am sitting with LJax, Nix, and Purdy.

Would Purdy and 1.12 be good value for 1.01 and ARich? I'm looking to grab Jeanty not Ward.

SF - that’s a fair offer at the least. But one unlikely to be taken by many. The 1 is sexy, exciting. Purdy is anything but.
To a point, the team interested in Purdy probably doesn’t have the 1 unless they traded for it last year.

Purdy is criminally undervalued in dynasty.

Agreed, although I did trade him for Nix early this off season.

where Uber-studs are even MORE valuable, Josh Allen as your QB is GOLD, imo.

And AJ brown isn’t?
I like having a stud QB in his 20s in any format but if others prefer a top 12ish 27yo WR in 1 QB, I wouldn’t blame them.

If you are a Josh Allen owner and you are sitting around waiting for someone to offer you a top 10 WR + a high 1st round pick - that is lunacy.

As an AJB shareholder I wouldn’t expect to get back Allen for AJB + a high 1st. Not even close.

I don’t think that’s lunacy at all.

Would you give your brown and a high 1st for Allen if offered in 1QB? I wouldn’t.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Would you give your brown and a high 1st for Allen if offered in 1QB? I wouldn’t.

Depends who my other receivers were and how much I needed a QB.

Just because it’s 1 QB doesn’t mean having a hammer like Allen at the position isn’t valuable.

And AJB has been a bit mercurial, both in scoring and team relations. He’s also about to turn 28.

I’m just saying, it’s not that far out IMO.

 

[-OZ-]

Would you give your brown and a high 1st for Allen if offered in 1QB? I wouldn’t.

Depends who my other receivers were and how much I needed a QB.

Just because it’s 1 QB doesn’t mean having a hammer like Allen at the position isn’t valuable.

And AJB has been a bit mercurial, both in scoring and team relations. He’s also about to turn 28.

I’m just saying, it’s not that far out IMO.

Fair enough. I know in my non SF, it would be laughed at or at best rejected, possibly with a counter of straight up.

WR are king there though, so there’s that difference.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Ps. Would love for others to chime in on the value here to say how out of whack my love of Josh Allen is (I only have him in 1 of 4 dynasty leagues fwiw). I wouldn’t doubt my valuation is out of line with the majority. I’m just a dude typing on my couch on my iPad watching the Amazing Race

I'll jump into the devil's advocate role here as well. I think @TVT 0 N S T A has made some good points on the specifics of scoring, but I'll touch on another point which is your mention that Josh Allen is still young with many years of elite QB play left, as I'm not sure that is the case.

He's about to turn 29 which is still young for a QB, but not really young for a RUNNING QB, particularly one that takes a lot of really hard hits.

There aren't a lot of comps for QBs that are similar to Allen, where their running is more about power than speed, but the few there are (guys like Newton and Culpepper) saw their rushing stats fall off a cliff once they got around 30. A lot like running backs because guys like them (and especially Allen) are taking licks like running backs. Allen probably even more than the others, that dude just takes some massive hits, and he's really getting to that age where these guys either don't like or can't take those massive hits anymore, especially with 5 years of them already taking a toll on their body.

Allen's passing stats the last few years have actually been pretty mediocre for 1qb leagues. A poor man's Jared Goff. It's his rushing numbers, especially inside the 20, that have made him an elite fantasy asset. But do we really expect this guy to be lowering his shoulder at full speed and smashing into 2 linebackers at the 5 yard line and carrying them into the endzone when he's 33 or 34 years old? And as we saw with Cam, it could come a lot sooner than that. It can happen overnight. One nagging shoulder injury can totally change his propensity for that kind of thing, or the team's propensity to let their franchise player do that.

Mcnair, Cam, and Culpepper all saw their fantasy rushing production per game drop by about 70% after they hit 30 compared to their age 25-28 seasons. Obviously different players with different circumstances and injuries, but I can't see a long term scenario where a $330M franchise QB is out there playing like Marshawn Lynch very far into his 30's.

 

[joey]

neither of you have provided any datapoints or any type of valued analysis of the deal

The data point is: it’s my OPINION based on MY value of Josh Allen.
We all seem to be fine with the “over pay to get Your Guy” mentality around here.
Well, Josh Allen is one of My Guys who I obviously value higher than most here because of his production and ability for me to totally ignore the QB position with a set-and-forget stud while focusing on improving other parts of my team.
So if it’s ok to overpay to get your guy, then you’d have to overpay me to get My Guy.

Like I said earlier, I’m probably lower on AJ Brown than most and not really interested in giving away a player like Allen for a player like Brown and get a dart throw 2nd or even late 1st in return.

I’m going down with this ship, I guess, and that’s fine since I’ve done reasonably well in the FFPC 1QB league where I roster Allen. So that’s MY data point

 

[kutta]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

I was told it was a bad move by me not to accept 1.08 1.10 and 2026 1st for Allen but there's a chance that team feels the same way. Think about what you would want for Brown draft pick wise and start there.

AJ Brown, Spears, Dell, and a 3rd are nowhere close to three firsts. AND the Allen side in the trade is getting the 2.02.

You should have taken the three firsts. This offer is off by quite

To add a little more (now you got me going)


Allen >> AJBrown + Spears + Dell + 3.10
So why am I throwing in the 2.02?

If you replace AJ Brown with a young uberstud WR like Nabers, then I’m listening. But I had better have another really good QB waiting in the wings to give up on the dynasty QB1, AND I better have a big need at WR.

(Of course the above valuations are just MY opinion as I’m admittedly not high on AJ Brown while others might be)

Yeah, I'm not sure where the disconnect is because obviously we agree at some points, Josh Allen is the player to be had in this trade. I think youre significantly undervaluing the need for depth and the variance in value between QB1 and WR14 when you are starting 8 skills players every week.

PPR startup drafts show AJ Brown ranked 14 and Josh Allen ranked 24. It's a 10 team 1 QB PPR league. If we can just say the disparity is less than dropping his 2.02 and having a high first going the other way, we can probably forget this conversation exists. I could agree to dropping the 2.02 and considering moving my 3rd into a 2nd but no QB in 1QB standard scoring/ppr format is what you're valuing Josh Allen at...

Ha. In a 10 team league, where Uber-studs are even MORE valuable, Josh Allen as your QB is GOLD, imo.
Who are the other QBs on their roster?

I have checked various trade calculators, again - to try and get a baseline of Josh Allen's value because nobody is giving up a top 15 WR + a 1st round pick for 1QB in a dynasty league that starts 8 skills players. AJ Brown + 2025 2nd round pick has come out to equal value on every (3) site I have checked. His other QB's are Caleb Williams and Sam Darnold. The "uber stud" analogy you gave only applies to QB? Nothing about starting the WR15 over WR37, WR56, WR59, well... you get the point.

I don't really take issue with you having a difference in value but your approach was rude and off-base. The delta between AJ Brown + Josh Allen in dynasty isn't a first round pick. In start-ups, AJ Brown is going ahead of Josh Allen... Who would lead with that trade? Here is WR9 in Dynasty Rankings plus 1.05 (you said high first) for your Josh Allen, pre-NFL draft?

Again, had you said you'll probably have to turn that 3rd into a 2nd and drop the pick coming back, I probably would have agreed.

You post a long response to your value question that you finished with “trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.”

Which is it? Are you trading garbage or value?

I agree with the earlier posts that this isn’t nearly enough for a counter. Allen offers nearly a 5 point advantage over 90% of all other fantasy QBs. None of the players you are offering offers his upside.

BTW, from experience I can tell you very few managers will agree with KTC.

Hah, fair enough. So, A.J. Brown for Josh Allen and 1.05 (or better)... I am out at that price.

2024 Points Per Game Stats:	2023 Points Per Game Stats:
Lamar Jackson 25.6 PPG	Josh Allen 24.2 PPG
Josh Allen 22.6 PPG	Jalen Hurts 21.9 PPG
Joe Burrow 22.5 PPG	Lamar Jackson 21.1 PPG
Baker Mayfield 22.5 PPG	Dak Prescott 20.7 PPG
Jayden Daniels 21.5 PPG	Jordan Love 19.9 PPG
Jalen Hurts 21.5 PPG	Brock Purdy 19.2 PPG

Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray were all within 5 PPG of Josh Allen in 2024

If you are a Josh Allen owner and you are sitting around waiting for someone to offer you a top 10 WR + a high 1st round pick - that is lunacy.

In order to really extract any amount of useful detail out of this conversation you and @joey would have to meet me in the middle on valuation discourse. I've offered the original trade, which still sits this morning. I blame myself for getting involved as far as this has gone by essentially arguing with myself, as neither of you have provided any datapoints or any type of valued analysis of the deal. In fact, to take it a step further - the information you are saying isn't even factual information. The delta between Josh Allen and QB5 isn't even 5 points per game not now, not last year, not 3 years ago...

AJ Brown was on track for 284 fantasy points last year - WR5 category
AJ Brown in 2023 - WR5
AJ Brown in 2022 - WR6

If you’re going to do that with the QB’s, you gotta do it for the WRs too.

Thielen, Jauan Jennings, and Addison were all within 2.5 PPG of AJ Brown last year. If you want to go all the way to five PPG, you get guys like Quentin Johnson and MHJ.

The point is, it’s pretty dang easy to find WRs close to the same PPG as AJ Brown. There’s a huge group clustered there right around 13-16 PPG. It’s VERY difficult to find a QB who scores like Allen (there’s a few, but good luck figuring out who it will be).

 

[-OZ-]

it’s pretty dang easy to find WRs close to the same PPG as AJ Brown.

It’s not that easy to replace brown. Of course these receivers exist. They’re just usually top 20 players in dynasty.

Do you think a stud QB is the key to winning in dynasty?

Fwiw, in SF dynasty I’ve won two of the last three championships and finished second the year I lost. Without a stud QB most years.
Last year - Champion, starting Caleb and Bryce Young
2023 - SB loser starting Dak and Carr
2022 - champion starting Tom Brady and Mike white

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Thank you @FreeBaGeL - that is what I was looking for in a Value Discussion.

Not to sound like a broken record but the situation does matter; which is why I mentioned he drafted Caleb Williams last year. Also, why I mentioned we are in a situation where most teams are starting 6 WR (2WR/4Flex). Having two WR's in the top 10 to 15 range isn't just an advantage, it is a must. Even in a vacuum - saying Josh Allen is worth AJ Brown + a high first rounder is just not accurate on where consensus rankings exist.

Upthread, @joey said to replace AJ Brown with Malik Nabers - I own Malik Nabers and I wouldn't trade Malik Nabers for Josh Allen straight up. Nabers is rated player #7 in start-up drafts but my personal rankings are WR4 and player 4, as I don't necessarily have a high value on RB (ETA: in start-up drafts) because their situations are much more fluid than a young WR.

Again, as @-OZ- referenced - non-SF - WR are king. Young WR are king. When you have to start two and fill 4 flex spots - guys like Nabers, Lamb, Jefferson, Chase, Amon-Ra are untouchable, regardless of roster make-up. For context, I acquired Nabers last year before he even took a snap. It cost me two firsts (1.09 & 1.10) and Zay Flowers.

neither of you have provided any datapoints or any type of valued analysis of the deal

Like I said earlier, I’m probably lower on AJ Brown than most and not really interested in giving away a player like Allen for a player like Brown and get a dart throw 2nd or even late 1st in return.

Actually, you never said that. Maybe lead with that next time. I'm not a moderator of this board and should probably refrain from telling people how to act on here but your response back to me was interpreted as I am an idiot, Josh Allen is worth Nabers + 1.05 at minimum "Now I am listening" and I should never use KTC and any worthwhile dynasty owner will tell you the same thing.

I believe this is my first time asking for a value check and probably my last. Fantasy Calculators are all the same and the only one to use is the one your leaguemates use. You can then see what trade calculators have an inflated value of your asset that you don't value and find something you do for similar value, etc. Trade calculators are a baseline of putting together a deal not the Holy Graile. I comprehend that a trade calculator doesn't equal instant accept but mentioned the calculator I ran this trade through to help formulate the foundation of where my opinion started and the reason I came to this "Value Discussion" thread. Just to be clear, the league I play in - nobody is trading Nabers + a 1st for any one player, let alone a QB. I say this as the owner of JaMarr Chase and, without hesitation, I would accept a trade of Nabers + 1st for him. Ope, don't have to because I own Nabers too.

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

I was told it was a bad move by me not to accept 1.08 1.10 and 2026 1st for Allen but there's a chance that team feels the same way. Think about what you would want for Brown draft pick wise and start there.

AJ Brown, Spears, Dell, and a 3rd are nowhere close to three firsts. AND the Allen side in the trade is getting the 2.02.

You should have taken the three firsts. This offer is off by quite

To add a little more (now you got me going)


Allen >> AJBrown + Spears + Dell + 3.10
So why am I throwing in the 2.02?

If you replace AJ Brown with a young uberstud WR like Nabers, then I’m listening. But I had better have another really good QB waiting in the wings to give up on the dynasty QB1, AND I better have a big need at WR.

(Of course the above valuations are just MY opinion as I’m admittedly not high on AJ Brown while others might be)

Yeah, I'm not sure where the disconnect is because obviously we agree at some points, Josh Allen is the player to be had in this trade. I think youre significantly undervaluing the need for depth and the variance in value between QB1 and WR14 when you are starting 8 skills players every week.

PPR startup drafts show AJ Brown ranked 14 and Josh Allen ranked 24. It's a 10 team 1 QB PPR league. If we can just say the disparity is less than dropping his 2.02 and having a high first going the other way, we can probably forget this conversation exists. I could agree to dropping the 2.02 and considering moving my 3rd into a 2nd but no QB in 1QB standard scoring/ppr format is what you're valuing Josh Allen at...

Ha. In a 10 team league, where Uber-studs are even MORE valuable, Josh Allen as your QB is GOLD, imo.
Who are the other QBs on their roster?

I have checked various trade calculators, again - to try and get a baseline of Josh Allen's value because nobody is giving up a top 15 WR + a 1st round pick for 1QB in a dynasty league that starts 8 skills players. AJ Brown + 2025 2nd round pick has come out to equal value on every (3) site I have checked. His other QB's are Caleb Williams and Sam Darnold. The "uber stud" analogy you gave only applies to QB? Nothing about starting the WR15 over WR37, WR56, WR59, well... you get the point.

I don't really take issue with you having a difference in value but your approach was rude and off-base. The delta between AJ Brown + Josh Allen in dynasty isn't a first round pick. In start-ups, AJ Brown is going ahead of Josh Allen... Who would lead with that trade? Here is WR9 in Dynasty Rankings plus 1.05 (you said high first) for your Josh Allen, pre-NFL draft?

Again, had you said you'll probably have to turn that 3rd into a 2nd and drop the pick coming back, I probably would have agreed.

If you’re going to do that with the QB’s, you gotta do it for the WRs too.

Thielen, Jauan Jennings, and Addison were all within 2.5 PPG of AJ Brown last year. If you want to go all the way to five PPG, you get guys like Quentin Johnson and MHJ.

The point is, it’s pretty dang easy to find WRs close to the same PPG as AJ Brown. There’s a huge group clustered there right around 13-16 PPG. It’s VERY difficult to find a QB who scores like Allen (there’s a few, but good luck figuring out who it will be).

I didn't start the 5 PPG advantage over all other QB's conversation but I did fan the flames. AJ Brown is more than 2.5 PPG over Jennings, Thielen but Addison does fit the bill. No reference to start-up draft capital needed to acquire either player? Literally, nothing about consensus feelings toward WR/QB? The QB list wasn't to prove that Josh Allen is some middling bum... it was to prove what was being said just isn't true.

 

[kutta]

it’s pretty dang easy to find WRs close to the same PPG as AJ Brown.

It’s not that easy to replace brown. Of course these receivers exist. They’re just usually top 20 players in dynasty.

Do you think a stud QB is the key to winning in dynasty?

Fwiw, in SF dynasty I’ve won two of the last three championships and finished second the year I lost. Without a stud QB most years.
Last year - Champion, starting Caleb and Bryce Young
2023 - SB loser starting Dak and Carr
2022 - champion starting Tom Brady and Mike white

I think studs are the key to winning in dynasty, not necessarily stud QB's only. Once you have a stud, you hang on tight, whatever position it's at, unless you get an offer that blows you away.

I don't use the term "stud" lightly. To me, I'm talking about guys who you KNOW will be in the top 5 at their position. So at QB, there's Allen, Lamar, and maybe Daniels if he keeps it up. And maybe Burrow. That's it. At WR, there's Chase, JJ, Lamb. Maybe BTJ and Nabers enter that territory soon. At RB, there's Saquon, Bijan, Gibbs. That's about it. At TE, Bowers (and Kelce for a long time).

I'm willing to bet most winning teams have 2 or 3 of these guys on it. When you get these guys, you hang on tight. Everyone else is tradable without much fanfare.

 

[-OZ-]

it’s pretty dang easy to find WRs close to the same PPG as AJ Brown.

It’s not that easy to replace brown. Of course these receivers exist. They’re just usually top 20 players in dynasty.

Do you think a stud QB is the key to winning in dynasty?

Fwiw, in SF dynasty I’ve won two of the last three championships and finished second the year I lost. Without a stud QB most years.
Last year - Champion, starting Caleb and Bryce Young
2023 - SB loser starting Dak and Carr
2022 - champion starting Tom Brady and Mike white

I think studs are the key to winning in dynasty, not necessarily stud QB's only. Once you have a stud, you hang on tight, whatever position it's at, unless you get an offer that blows you away.

I don't use the term "stud" lightly. To me, I'm talking about guys who you KNOW will be in the top 5 at their position. So at QB, there's Allen, Lamar, and maybe Daniels if he keeps it up. And maybe Burrow. That's it. At WR, there's Chase, JJ, Lamb. Maybe BTJ and Nabers enter that territory soon. At RB, there's Saquon, Bijan, Gibbs. That's about it. At TE, Bowers (and Kelce for a long time).

I'm willing to bet most winning teams have 2 or 3 of these guys on it. When you get these guys, you hang on tight. Everyone else is tradable without much fanfare.

Makes sense, except some of us expand “stud” by position. Whereas stud QB should be the top 3-5, there might be 10-15 stud RBs and WRs because you’re starting 2-3x as many.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Fwiw, in SF dynasty I’ve won two of the last three championships and finished second the year I lost. Without a stud QB most years.

I mean, that’s a fine data point but it’s pretty anecdotal and small sample.

I’m looking at LCG winners from the last 3-4 years in my various leagues & names like LJax, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow dot those rosters.

Ironically I was the exception rolling out TLaw/Fields.

I don’t disagree with your point, but the evidence you shared was pretty shaky.

 

[kutta]

neither of you have provided any datapoints or any type of valued analysis of the deal

Like I said earlier, I’m probably lower on AJ Brown than most and not really interested in giving away a player like Allen for a player like Brown and get a dart throw 2nd or even late 1st in return.

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I was just trying to assess my likely early picks in my main league - 16 teams, I have the 4, 16, and 20 (along with later picks), I figure the 4 could be Warren, golden or Henderson, but then I was looking for Ward, dart or sanders in the rookie rankings.

Are they really 34th, 35th and 42nd? Other than pickett’s year I don’t remember QBs going that low. Even that year they went 22 (Willis) and 24 (Kenny). I understand not reaching for what will probably be average starting QB at best, but does the group think they’ll actually fall to the 3rd round?

In my 12 team one start QB leagues the FBG rankings lean on the optimistic side but then in my leagues Willis ADP was late 4 and Pickett into the 6th.

League and roster size I've found make a big difference in one start QB value, not sure if rankings you are looking account for that.

I would let the history of your league be your guide.

In my 12 team start one league Pickett went 2.4 (16) and Willis 3.12 (36).

Your league sucks....just kidding, bad picks though in a one QB league but maybe it's larger roster size which I had indicated I believe is a big factor.

Data I was relaying for where they went in my leagues was ADP data on 527 leagues and it's pretty close to where they went in my actual leagues. But like I said to Oz, each league is it's own entity and knowing the tendency of that league is probably a better idea of how things will go then consensus opinion.

Ha! My league loves QBs. Roster size of 20, 5qb max.

My league is constructed the same way and there will definitely be a Cam Ward pick in the top 15 picks of this draft...

The problem is - you have to allow at least 4 to be rostered in Dynasty. As weeks turn to years, bye weeks + injury can leave teams pretty desperate.

Value Question:

Team 1: Josh Allen + 2.02

Team 2: A.J. Brown + Tyjae Spears + Tank Dell + 3.10

Is that about in line? I am the team trying to trade some garbage + AJ Brown for Josh Allen.

I'll have to cut 5 guys before rostering anyone I draft anyway and I have some roster cloggers like Sean Tucker, JaTavion Sanders, Diontae Johnson but they don't hold any trade value. I am pretty down on Spears + Dell for injury and have a propensity for trying to sell top receivers before I am stuck with them for life.

I was told it was a bad move by me not to accept 1.08 1.10 and 2026 1st for Allen but there's a chance that team feels the same way. Think about what you would want for Brown draft pick wise and start there.

AJ Brown, Spears, Dell, and a 3rd are nowhere close to three firsts. AND the Allen side in the trade is getting the 2.02.

You should have taken the three firsts. This offer is off by quite

To add a little more (now you got me going)


Allen >> AJBrown + Spears + Dell + 3.10
So why am I throwing in the 2.02?

If you replace AJ Brown with a young uberstud WR like Nabers, then I’m listening. But I had better have another really good QB waiting in the wings to give up on the dynasty QB1, AND I better have a big need at WR.

(Of course the above valuations are just MY opinion as I’m admittedly not high on AJ Brown while others might be)

Yeah, I'm not sure where the disconnect is because obviously we agree at some points, Josh Allen is the player to be had in this trade. I think youre significantly undervaluing the need for depth and the variance in value between QB1 and WR14 when you are starting 8 skills players every week.

PPR startup drafts show AJ Brown ranked 14 and Josh Allen ranked 24. It's a 10 team 1 QB PPR league. If we can just say the disparity is less than dropping his 2.02 and having a high first going the other way, we can probably forget this conversation exists. I could agree to dropping the 2.02 and considering moving my 3rd into a 2nd but no QB in 1QB standard scoring/ppr format is what you're valuing Josh Allen at...

Ha. In a 10 team league, where Uber-studs are even MORE valuable, Josh Allen as your QB is GOLD, imo.
Who are the other QBs on their roster?

I have checked various trade calculators, again - to try and get a baseline of Josh Allen's value because nobody is giving up a top 15 WR + a 1st round pick for 1QB in a dynasty league that starts 8 skills players. AJ Brown + 2025 2nd round pick has come out to equal value on every (3) site I have checked. His other QB's are Caleb Williams and Sam Darnold. The "uber stud" analogy you gave only applies to QB? Nothing about starting the WR15 over WR37, WR56, WR59, well... you get the point.

I don't really take issue with you having a difference in value but your approach was rude and off-base. The delta between AJ Brown + Josh Allen in dynasty isn't a first round pick. In start-ups, AJ Brown is going ahead of Josh Allen... Who would lead with that trade? Here is WR9 in Dynasty Rankings plus 1.05 (you said high first) for your Josh Allen, pre-NFL draft?

Again, had you said you'll probably have to turn that 3rd into a 2nd and drop the pick coming back, I probably would have agreed.

If you’re going to do that with the QB’s, you gotta do it for the WRs too.

Thielen, Jauan Jennings, and Addison were all within 2.5 PPG of AJ Brown last year. If you want to go all the way to five PPG, you get guys like Quentin Johnson and MHJ.

The point is, it’s pretty dang easy to find WRs close to the same PPG as AJ Brown. There’s a huge group clustered there right around 13-16 PPG. It’s VERY difficult to find a QB who scores like Allen (there’s a few, but good luck figuring out who it will be).

I didn't start the 5 PPG advantage over all other QB's conversation but I did fan the flames. AJ Brown is more than 2.5 PPG over Jennings, Thielen but Addison does fit the bill. No reference to start-up draft capital needed to acquire either player? Literally, nothing about consensus feelings toward WR/QB? The QB list wasn't to prove that Josh Allen is some middling bum... it was to prove what was being said just isn't true.

Startup drafts are a horrible way to gauge value. People drafting AJ Brown early may realize they can still nab Lamar later for the their QB, so they don't draft Allen early. Just so many factors.

But once you have your team, and you have a Josh Allen, you don't give him up unless you are blown away with an offer. There are only a few players I feel that way about, and Allen is one of them.

But hey, everyone's mileage will vary...