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You were linking RB age of 26 to a huge drop in value. Bell is elite in the passing game as well. He has off field stuff that isn't relevant to the age discussion but a massive value drop at 26 seems off to me.
How many rb are elite for more than 4-5 years? 26 for a RB that had been used heavily is hardly his prime.
How many RBs that were elite at 21/22 do we have data on to suggest this is the case? We know Peterson/Bell/LT/McCoy were elite in year 2/1 when they were 21/22. 3 of those 4 were elite Beyond the 4-5 year horizon. There aren't too many others I can think of in recent memory that were elite as rookies/21/22 yo to begin with. Please no T-Rich examples. His RY was nowhere near elite. Jury still out on Bell/DJ, etc.
Hmmm how many weren't elite their rookie year? I know it's not a popular belief but I don't view EE as elite at this point. Good but not special behind a mega-elite OL.
I try to answer this question in the first post of this thread
Almost no RBs have been elite as Rookies. I'm not sure how a 1600 yard rushing season/2000!YFS in 15 games isn't elite. What metrics are you using?
DLF December ADP showed early 6th round but this excludes 2017 rookies. My guess is he'll settle in as a late 5th rounder in June. I moved him for Jordy straight up before the trade deadline and it won me the championship. I have a guy asking for 1.4/Prosise/white for McCoy (way too rich for me). If I owned him and wasn't competing I'd try to get 1.4 but would probably settle for 1.5/1.6.
Yeah I'm not doing a very good job communicating in this thread. Most definitely an elite season. No arguing that. Not sure Zeke is elite though. He's good not elite imo. I don't see elite on the field. I see good RB behind a mega-elite OL.
Holmes was a late bloomer. Charles not so much as he put up a 15 ppg PPR season as a 22 yo and only better then there excluding the injury seasons.His usage didn't really spike until the next season. Guess it comes down to definition of elite. Are you talking stats and ability to put up numbers regardless situation or Flat out talent? If talent I'd argue there are a ton of guys who put up elite stats for a time that weren't elite talents. Either way I see Zeke as both. Dual threat with elite skillet and situation.
This is an interesting point. My first thought is are the careers getting shorter or are there just no "good" WRs over 30 (save the ones you referenced)? I remember arguing with a guy many years ago that Fitz wasn't old and would play well into his 30s as a productive FF WR. I thought that because he was elite and a WR. I guess I've always held the view that elite WRs will be useful into their early 30s. Now I'll need to revisit that thought.
Best offer so far was Luck and Corey Coleman for a 2018 1st (middle of the road team) and Jordy Nelson.
If he needs a QB, he should be driving over to the other owners house and signing the deal.
I assume he holds Luck, since the post he was quoting was in reference to the difficulty in trading QBs for anything of value.
I actually think the opposite. I don't think he'll fetch anything in the 1.4-1.5 range once the actual draft approaches. People just don't trade much for 29 year old RBs anymore, and the offseason is the time where those guys are fetching their absolute least.
Here's the thing: Zeke was 3 times more valuable than Cooper this year (standard PPR formats). You don't get points for a young roster, at some point you have to turn those into compressed VBD. If we assume Cooper's production improves 10% and Zeke's stays the same, Zeke's 4-5 years will be much more valuable than Cooper's 7-8.
I'd actively try to sell Booker and Ware. Nothing sticks out to me as a buy, but I'd likely hold the rest. I like Howard and Henry, but so does the market. I wouldn't mind moving the others, but wouldn't count on getting good value for them.
With so few good RBs out there, I would imagine pretty much every league has someone who will "overpay" for Mccoy if presented the opportunity.
Good post.
Likely true. Having the buy/sell conversations can be tricky. There is no vacuum. The only truly applicable measure of value is what you can do in your league(s).
Zekes already had one year with 300+ carries. You willing to bet he has 5 more of those left? I'm not. Also assuming Zeke's efficiency stays the same is basically saying he's going to have an historical 4-5 years. Its more likely his production drops some. Even an all time great like AP has had his yardage numbers fluctuate nearly 400 yards in his prime and 800 yards in his 7th season. A 1200 yard season with 12 TD's is a great year for a RB and is totally in Zeke's range of outcomes. There might be some recency bias going on in regards to Zeke. Also Cooper has a good chance of improving more than 10% he's an elite WR who isn't even close to reaching his peak at 22 years old.
Highly unlikely that you get 8 years of elite production from EE. Hell you're probably a dog for 5 more years. Cooper is a buy low it seems. If Cooper explodes next season and EE takes a reasonable step back it, both outcomes that are not out of the question, it will be interesting to visit this again.
You're right about the variability. Even the elitest of elite RBs don't put up 2000 yard seasons year after year. It's a few mixed in here and there alongside otherwise merely "very good" seasons.
That might be why I'm valuing him more than the board. I believe Cooper is the more talented player of the two and hasn't reached his peak. I get the positional value argument but there's a lot of risk in betting a RB is going to stay at EE's production level for even 4 years let alone 8. Assuming you're going to get 8 years from Zeke is a mistake imo......
I don't think anyone expects 8 elite years out of any player. Pretty much all players have down years (QB's, RB's, WR's, etc).
I'm projecting 20 PPG from Zeke next year and expect to do so for quite some time. The carry volume will dip, the target volume will increase, the TDs will fluctuate, and so on.
Agreed that now is not the time to sell him. Either he goes off in the playoffs and then interest in him will peak again, or you need wait till next season hoping he keeps the starting role and then sell as soon as he has a very good game.
I think you guys are hitting on why I feel most of those guys (except maybe Booker, and specifically Ingram/Ware/Lewis/Lacy, because Howard/Henry are valued highly based on youth) are buys. They are all "good NFL RBs" and will (should) continue to get work. Lacy seems like a blue light special. Everything about him is so disgusting right now. Except for the fact that he is actually kind of a good NFL RB.
I hate this guy because his usage numbers kept telling me to not play him but he kept producing anyway. He no doubt will regress next year. But he's still a nice WR4 to have. I think he's a good candidate to do a trade down in value but turn a 4th into a late 2nd/early 3rd type of deal.Braktastic said:
18. Tyreek Hill
19. Tyrell Williams
20. Terrelle Pryor
24. Pierre Garcon
29. Kenny Britt
30. Adam Thielen
33. Cole Beasley
40. Cameron Meredith
41. Marqise Lee
45. Quincy Enunwa
Although I don't really have anything to back it up I've thought this throughout the season as well. The fact zeke is more of a compact player with shorter choppier steps and cuts leads me to believe he is more durable than a player like leveon or David Johnson that are exposed to more hits due to their upright, plant their foot in the ground running style
Ghost guy was working off previous posts that mccoys value was 5th or 6th round startup value, not 5th or 6th overall pick
