You were spot on. But did you know it would be $7M x 6 years?
This news has to tank Howard's dynasty value. What a curious move by the Bucs.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
This news has to tank Howard's dynasty value. What a curious move by the Bucs.
I could not disagree more strongly. Calling Josh Gordon a WR1 with the frequency and severity of his addiction issues is a massive stretch. The talent is there, that I don't doubt, but the track record is just plain awful.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
with the Brate news what is OJ Howard worth now in the FFPC?? I'm also sad about this and wondering what a reasonable sales price would be
I went from thinking I'd give a late first for him to maybe a mid-2nd. He's still a talented young player, but it could be a long time before you actually feel comfortable starting him. I'd rather let him burn a roster spot on someone else's team.
Milkman
Footballguy
It hurts both their dynasty values. OJH is worth no more than a 2nd now imo. The Bucs clearly aren't going to use him like the Giants use Evan Engram.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Keep in mind FFPC is TE premium. Shorter rosters makes it harder to hold guys but Howard has so much talent that a 2nd seems cheap for him in te premium.
Milkman
Footballguy
You're banking on an injury. He's likely to have the same yards and less TD's this year. He can be the best TE in the league but the Bucs are going to target him less than 50 times. Not a lot he can do with 50 targets a year. He's looking at that target share for the next 2-3 years. Meanwhile they are going to give Brate 70+ targets.
Brate and OJH conbined for
116 tagets
74 catches
1023 yards
12 TDs
If you give all those targets to Howard and prorated what he did with his targets last year you get OJH putting up this monster year.
116 targets
76 catches
1262 yards
18 TDs
The Bucs spent something like 20 million in guaranteed money to limit that guys touches. Lol Bucs.
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Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
It was more of a curious move when they drafted Howard.FF Ninja said:
Pwingles
Footballguy
meh, two more than functional pass catching TE that can block and are big targets for an inaccurate qb seems like a good idea to me. What could Cam be if he had 2 greg olsens lol
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Why are people treating this like it is some massive contract? Brate's average annual salary is less than CJ Fiedorowicz, Coby Fleener, and Jermaine Gresham. It's in the same range as Dion Sims and Julius Thomas. And that's not even accounting for the fact that he signed more recently than those guys and contract values go up every year.Milkman said:
This year, yea Howard is probably not going to be a difference maker. But the notion when he was drafted was that it would probably be year 3 or 4 before a TE really breaks out anyway. Brates contract is likely front loaded such that if Howard starts making him irrelevant a few years from now his presence (or cap hit when cut) doesn't hurt the team much.
For a 2nd in te premium I am buying all day.
$18M guaranteed is second most in the league I'd guess locks him in at least 2 years. That's a big deal and this is devastating news for Howard.
I also would not have used a first round pick on Howard and not expected him to break out till year 3 or 4. A lot of TE's break out in year two and extremely high amount of big time producing fantasy TE's take a major growth from year one to two or most never do. Even in FFPC redrafts he's gone in 6th round of the my last two drafts, people were for sure expecting that second year growth.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
I think people expected Brate to roll over when they drafted Howard, but he's proven to be a very good player, and an essential safety valve for Winston. Drafting Howard looks like a bad move for the Bucs, and his value is in the pishadoo, but he may still improve a little every year and be startable in about 3 years.
ZWK
Footballguy
Last year Brate played 54% of Tampa's snaps and Howard played about 67% of the snaps when he was healthy (56% of the snaps on the season, but he missed the last 2.75 games). They were both among the more effective receiving TEs in terms of efficiency (e.g., 8th and 5th in DVOA, 4th and 7th in DYAR), and Brate was also up there in PFF grade. Keeping them both seems like a reasonable move for the Bucs, even if it's bad for their fantasy owners.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I was looking forward to brate hitting free agency. I was a brate owner that felt jipped when they drafted Howard. Now Howard owners get the same- take that you stinkin oj drinkers!
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I mean I guess I'm just gonna hang onto Howard..............let him sort of just sit there on my roster..........fffffffuuuucccchhhhhhhh
-OZ-
Footballguy
for the bucs he's very valuable and a fine pick. Remember in Alabama he was used much more as a blocker than receiver. He's probably going to be among the best in the league all around. Just not an ff stud for a couple years.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
If Robinson indeed goes to Chicago, whatever was left in Kevin whites value is gone.
With the talent on defense getting shipped off in Seattle, anyone thinking the passing game is a buy? Good qb, probably a middle to bad defense. Richardson and graham gone, anyone like baldwin and maybe Lockett? Any other receiver that could blow up with an opportunity? Baldwin coming off a year where he disappointed owners, could be cheaper than he should.
With the talent on defense getting shipped off in Seattle, anyone thinking the passing game is a buy? Good qb, probably a middle to bad defense. Richardson and graham gone, anyone like baldwin and maybe Lockett? Any other receiver that could blow up with an opportunity? Baldwin coming off a year where he disappointed owners, could be cheaper than he should.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Watkins in KC or Robinson in Chicago?
Both are interesting signings, 2nd year QBs. Robinson is going to be the main target without as much competition.
Both offenses could be exciting this year.
I think it's really close. I have Robinson in no leagues, Watkins in my main league. I don't know if I'd trade Watkins for Robinson today....
Thoughts?
Both are interesting signings, 2nd year QBs. Robinson is going to be the main target without as much competition.
Both offenses could be exciting this year.
I think it's really close. I have Robinson in no leagues, Watkins in my main league. I don't know if I'd trade Watkins for Robinson today....
Thoughts?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Robinson personally. Although people think there are a lot of mouths to feed in KC but that’s not necessarily the case. They threw the ball 550 times and Hill and Kelce only had 225 targets. My guess is a lot less short passing to the backs and more down the field.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Don’t really think his target share is affected. He only had 100 targets last season anyways and they threw 550 times. He just does a lot with those targets. Neither he nor Kelce are huge target hogs so there are still a lot to go around.
Well, in the case of White, yes, what was left of his trade value is gone. However, it's a new coaching staff. He's just going to have to compete to try to be the WR2. Meredith looked above average (and just got transition tagged) so that won't be easy, but if White is back to full health (don't see why he wouldn't be by OTAs) then he should have a chance. If he can stay healthy for 16 games and make some plays - even if he just ends up with like 40 receptions - there will be a market for him next year. I'm not advocating targeting him or keeping him over a more promising prospect... merely just musing on the curious case of Kevin White.
I need to see Seattle do something with that OL. If they do, I'd gladly take some Baldwin or Lockett shares if available. If they don't, I'm not sure how long Wilson is going to hold up.
As someone who has been pondering trading for both guys, I don't feel very excited about either location. We don't know if either QB is legit yet. I generally trust Andy Reid's talent assessment, though. Nagy has been an OC for like, what, 2 seasons? Has he even been the play caller? So we don't even know if his offense will be good, although I'm sure the hope/hype will be that he's going to be the next Doug Pederson. He does have some nice pieces, though. That OL is solid, the RBs are nice, and between AR15, Meredith, White, and Shaheen there is a lot of young receiving talent. If Trubisky and Nagy are both decent at their jobs, the offense has a lot of potential. I just don't like betting on two unknowns to come through.
I'll have to see what people are asking, but I'm guessing I'm going to pass on both. I'd already made my mind up to pass on Sammy - turns out he's a flat earther which might explain his struggles. The guy has the talent, but maybe he's just too dumb to learn offenses and get on the same page with his QB.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I was never a big Arob fan but in that format I'd pay a mid 1st pretty easily if I had multiple picks. 1.04 seems steep to me when I find a drop off after that.
Pwingles
Footballguy
I think you are right. Im working on a different deal to move back from 1.04 where i can maybe move one of the picks i get for him
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Robinson is worth 1.07-1.10 pick IMO. he had one big season but has been average outside of that. also coming off major injury.
I tried trading J Howard & the 2.5 for him a few days ago and owner came back with Mixon & 1.5 for Robinson & 1.11. I passed.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
They are paying him more per year than the Bucs are paying Brate. He's now the 5th highest paid TE in $/year. They are paying him to play joker and to catch, because he's below average blocking. Shaheen will be inline and block, Burton will move around and catch. Burton is the better fantasy asset, and we worry about Shaheen stealing a few targets from Burton, not the other way around.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
I am looking to buy in the spots I dont have him, I think some people will be willing to cut bait too soon and he could be a value, prices are all over the place though. People who held him all year last year are likely frustrated. People who invested after 2015 are likely holding out for more.
Arob that is
Arob that is
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Yeah, I'm a big ARob guy & usually don't have too much of a problem picking him up. Looks like I found someone who likes him even more than I do.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
In startup ADP Arob is sitting at 2.12 with Mixon at 3.8 so I'm not sure I would agree that Mixon's consensus value is much higher. Likely comes down to league settings and whether you have to start 2 or 3 WRs.
Regarding actual ability Mixon may be one of the few that I think has a good chance of ending up more overrated than Arob.
Both guys are all hype, at least Arob has some history of nfl production, whereas Mixon is an athlete that has shown no propensity for being able to find a running lane you couldn't drive a semi truck through and was handily outperformed by a mediocre Gio Bernard in the same offense and running behind the same line last year.
Regarding actual ability Mixon may be one of the few that I think has a good chance of ending up more overrated than Arob.
Both guys are all hype, at least Arob has some history of nfl production, whereas Mixon is an athlete that has shown no propensity for being able to find a running lane you couldn't drive a semi truck through and was handily outperformed by a mediocre Gio Bernard in the same offense and running behind the same line last year.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Burton is a Stud. He's going to win that job and be a top 10 TE this year with top 5 TE a possible outcome as well.
Curious what site for that ADP? MFL keepers is not 100% dynasty, but they have those ADP's basically reversed.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Mizelle ADP which uses a combo of DLF mocks and his own mocks he runs.
DLF alone without his mocks has Mixon 28 and ARob 25.
Regardless, they're pretty close in consensus value.
kutta
Footballguy
I know that no one cares about my team. But this free agency period has been insane for my guys:
Aaron Rodgers
Jimmy Graham
Jordy
Maclin
Hyde
Brieda
Derrick Henry
John Brown
Kupp (Watkins released)
Anyway, just pointing out that it seems like there is a bigger than normal turnover this year - of course, it feels like I say that every year...
Aaron Rodgers
Jimmy Graham
Jordy
Maclin
Hyde
Brieda
Derrick Henry
John Brown
Kupp (Watkins released)
Anyway, just pointing out that it seems like there is a bigger than normal turnover this year - of course, it feels like I say that every year...
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Value of David Njoku in rookie picks for a 12 team ppr dynasty with 1.5 ppr for tight ends??
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
The Future Champs
Footballguy
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
That seems pretty close to me, but id prbly be keeping arob n the 1.5 there. I think the bottom line from above posts is that mixon n arob r pretty close in value, both have their warts and both have real potential. Vanilla or Chocolate .......
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
Brandon Cooks is tough to pinpoint. Up and down week to week but won some games for owners last year. Does year two in the system help more than Edelman hinders? If it's a buy low what's his cost?
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I like Cooks and think he could be better in year two. Having said that my biggest fear is his cap number and contract and it wouldn't shock me at all if they released him. 8Mil is a big big number for a wr in NE and if they can't agree on an extension im not sure what happens.
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