Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (9 Viewers)

[Dr. Octopus]

Again, you're ignoring the likely drop off in QB play that will hurt Hunt regardless of Ware's presence. 

I’m ignoring something we never addressed? You said Ware’s return would, perhaps significantly, eat into Hunt’s production and I only discussed that. On that we’ll agree to disagree.

As far as the transition from Smith to Mahomes. That’s an unknown, that can go many different ways including Reid relying more on the running game. For now I’m not overly concerned, that could change if I hear bad things about Mahomes but with the Chiefs spending a chunk of money on Watkins it seems they have faith in Mahomes.

 

[Bojang0301]

What kind of draft capital would people pay for Trey Burton right now? Edit: I’m specifically looking for thoughts on standard but will take insight on PPR or TE Prem as well.

 

[Concept Coop]

What kind of draft capital would people pay for Trey Burton right now?

A 3rd, perhaps.  I'm a Gators fan and am pulling for him - and he did look good when he got his shot - but I was blown away by the contract he received.  I just don't think there was a big enough sample size to justify it.  As the TE field is so flat and, while trending up, Chicago is still a neutral spot at best, I'm in no rush to acquire him.  

 

[Travieso]

What kind of draft capital would people pay for Trey Burton right now? Edit: I’m specifically looking for thoughts on standard but will take insight on PPR or TE Prem as well.

Can I piggyback and add TE's and their value (relative to draft picks).  ppr.

Graham?

Reed (if he is still alive)?

Jonnu

Rams TE

Ebron (now in Indy)

I would buy Burton for an early 3 - probably around where the last of the top 3 rookie te's go..

 

[flapgreen]

Have Kittle, Ebron, Clay, and Brate. Any of these guys worth trading? Can only play 2. I need some RBs badly. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Can I piggyback and add TE's and their value (relative to draft picks).  ppr.

Graham?

Reed (if he is still alive)?

Jonnu

Rams TE

Ebron (now in Indy)

I would buy Burton for an early 3 - probably around where the last of the top 3 rookie te's go..

Burton - I offered a late 2nd in two different leagues and was nearly laughed at. Guys each said they want a 1st even though they acknowledge no one is likely to pay that. But that for a 2nd they would rather hold him. But they want to trade him. ??? IDK they think he has been brought in to be the Kelce in that system. Might be right. New coach didn't have anything to do with drafting Shaheen, who was raw to begin with. 

Graham - mid 2nd?

Reed - late 3rd. There's probably a rookie or FA vet available that I like better.

Jonnu - mid 2nd?

Ebron - when I see Luck on the field again I'll be interested in Colts players again. Which will probably be too late to buy at that point. There was a lot of debate about Doyle at a mid 2nd price. Now?

Rams TE - split duty problem again

 

[battlestar]

Have Kittle, Ebron, Clay, and Brate. Any of these guys worth trading? Can only play 2. I need some RBs badly. 

I'd say Kittle is likely the most valuable out of that group.  Youngest, flashed at the end of last year and they liked him so much they traded Vance McDonald away (not that he is a star, but still).

if you can wait, you may be better off waiting until he has some training camp hype or a fast start.

Brate is next for me.  Jamies really seemed to key in on him last year and that new contract speaks to how the team values him, even with Howard in the mix.  I just don't think you'll get any real value out of trading him.

 

[menobrown]

Can I piggyback and add TE's and their value (relative to draft picks).  ppr.

Graham?

Reed (if he is still alive)?

Jonnu

Rams TE

Ebron (now in Indy)

I would buy Burton for an early 3 - probably around where the last of the top 3 rookie te's go..

I'd take Reed over all of them in PPR, TE premium, dynasty and redraft. Basically any PPR plus format. Different strokes for different folks, he gets injured a ton of course but in most formats I'd put his PPG production as a top 3 TE when healthy.  His value is at it's best in FFPC formats which I mainly play and I've tried to get him for a second in 3 leagues and got quick rejected.

I'd take Graham next in every format but dynasty, in which I'd take Ebron.

Rams TE's I don't know. I'm flat on Higbee and don't think much of him but liked what  I saw from Everett last season and I'm going to hold him in a lot of leagues hoping for year two growth and designed role of TE in this offense.  But the Rams almost lured Eifert into town so I'm wondering how much they like what they have?  Maybe more of a Higbee reflection but was not an overly positive sign.

Jonnu to me is blocked by Delanie, for 2018 at least.

In FFPC format I'd give a mid second for Burton in some leagues when I can expand my roster. 

Sounds to me based on most responses I don't have a lot of company with my opinions, that's ok.

 

[Andrew74]

What value do you guys give Matt Breida?  I drafted him in the 5th last year as my lottery ticket.  Now the McKinnon owner is sniffing around.  This is a 0.5 PPR. I was thinking of asking for a late 2nd but I have no idea.

 

[Andrew74]

Reid traded up to get Hunt. Hunt dominated. I thought the last two RBs Reid went after were Charles and Westbrook. Ware is alright and I'm sure Reid has said good things about him, but this is Hunt's backfield and I don't see them drafting anyone early enough for it to matter.  

I’m 99.2% sure Charles was on the Chief’s roster when Reid showed up.  

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I’m 99.2% sure Charles was on the Chief’s roster when Reid showed up.  

He was. Haley used to give washed up Thomas Jones carries over him to the dismay of fantasy owners.

 

[FF Ninja]

I’m ignoring something we never addressed? You said Ware’s return would, perhaps significantly, eat into Hunt’s production and I only discussed that. On that we’ll agree to disagree.

As far as the transition from Smith to Mahomes. That’s an unknown, that can go many different ways including Reid relying more on the running game. For now I’m not overly concerned, that could change if I hear bad things about Mahomes but with the Chiefs spending a chunk of money on Watkins it seems they have faith in Mahomes.

Sorry, kind of assumed you were part of the discussion with Coop. It was mentioned/addressed in there somewhere. And relying on the running game never works out. You always hear it... they've got a rookie/backup/bad/mediocre QB in the game now so they'll just run more... if it was that easy, coaches would always run more. But what happens is they get conservative and try to run more, but that predictable game plan produces fewer first downs and they end up with fewer plays. So even if the run game sees an increased % of the plays, they still run less. 

Mahomes is an unknown - this is true. But Alex Smith last year was really good. 67.5% completion percentage, 8.00 YPA, and a 26:5 TD to INT ratio in 15 games. I'll take the under on Mahomes reproducing that.

Maybe you think I'm just nit picking. I sort of am. But every year there is significant turnover in the top 10 RBs. It's often a reason people wanted to brush under the rug before the season. It's easy to brush Ware and Mahomes under the rug when talking about Hunt, but I think that's unwise. I mean, Hunt is going ahead of Fournette in startups right now. Fournette just saw his OL and TE/WR corps get better while Ivory departed. Hunt's valuation seems weird to me. Like people are busy looking backwards instead of forwards. 

 

[Hankmoody]

He was. Haley used to give washed up Thomas Jones carries over him to the dismay of fantasy owners.

Yep, and shortly thereafter Reid would just randomly abandon the run to the dismay of fantasy owners.

 

[CentralPA]

What value do you guys give Matt Breida?  I drafted him in the 5th last year as my lottery ticket.  Now the McKinnon owner is sniffing around.  This is a 0.5 PPR. I was thinking of asking for a late 2nd but I have no idea.

Would also like to know thoughts on McKinnon.  He a Top 30 Dynasty pick or at least in the ballpark in PPR?  I am guessing no but he may be in the ballpark at least.  Think he'll be used like Freeman.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Sorry, kind of assumed you were part of the discussion with Coop. It was mentioned/addressed in there somewhere. And relying on the running game never works out. You always hear it... they've got a rookie/backup/bad/mediocre QB in the game now so they'll just run more... if it was that easy, coaches would always run more. But what happens is they get conservative and try to run more, but that predictable game plan produces fewer first downs and they end up with fewer plays. So even if the run game sees an increased % of the plays, they still run less. 

Mahomes is an unknown - this is true. But Alex Smith last year was really good. 67.5% completion percentage, 8.00 YPA, and a 26:5 TD to INT ratio in 15 games. I'll take the under on Mahomes reproducing that.

Maybe you think I'm just nit picking. I sort of am. But every year there is significant turnover in the top 10 RBs. It's often a reason people wanted to brush under the rug before the season. It's easy to brush Ware and Mahomes under the rug when talking about Hunt, but I think that's unwise. I mean, Hunt is going ahead of Fournette in startups right now. Fournette just saw his OL and TE/WR corps get better while Ivory departed. Hunt's valuation seems weird to me. Like people are busy looking backwards instead of forwards. 

I only rank him as RB9 in dynasty (and that's before factoring in the rookie class) so I suppose I would agree he's a sell high depending on the offer. Watching him play though and seeing the talent does not make me want to run out and panic based on Spencer Ware returning and/or a second year QB that Andy Reid is apparently very high on.

I don't feel like drudging up the numbers right now but historically some of the top running games in the NFL were offenses that struggled passing the ball. It sounds good to say running games struggle when the team has a bad QBs - but it doesn't always turn out that way. I don't really see the Chiefs passing game struggling anyway - Hill, Watkins and Kelce are among the top pass catching weapons in the NFL right now - Mahomes just has to be adequate to use weapons like that.

 

[Snorkelson]

Have Kittle, Ebron, Clay, and Brate. Any of these guys worth trading? Can only play 2. I need some RBs badly. 

I moved kittle for 2.05, hoping I can nab a rb there but if the guys I like are gone I’ll get a solid wr prospect, or my choice of this years te class. I don’t think the other 3 are getting you anything. Was hoping Ebron landed in Seattle or NO or somewhere else with more of a need, but his contract suggests they will use him. Was hoping brate would hit FA next year and now is competeing for snaps. He could put up some decent weeks for you but no one wants to use that roster spot. Clay is a bye week ww pick up. Kittle is the only guy that has value but that would leave you with a hole at te imo. 

 

[FF Ninja]

I only rank him as RB9 in dynasty (and that's before factoring in the rookie class) so I suppose I would agree he's a sell high depending on the offer. Watching him play though and seeing the talent does not make me want to run out and panic based on Spencer Ware returning and/or a second year QB that Andy Reid is apparently very high on.

I don't feel like drudging up the numbers right now but historically some of the top running games in the NFL were offenses that struggled passing the ball. It sounds good to say running games struggle when the team has a bad QBs - but it doesn't always turn out that way. I don't really see the Chiefs passing game struggling anyway - Hill, Watkins and Kelce are among the top pass catching weapons in the NFL right now - Mahomes just has to be adequate to use weapons like that.

Similarly, I recall the best running games were on teams that didn't pass the ball a ton, but were efficient doing it. Think Trent Green with Priest Holmes and Drew Brees with LT2. Of course, if a team is built with a road grading OL and lockdown defense (your Jets during about 2 of the Sanchez years) it can be accomplished with a struggling passing game. But I think I read the best running games are found on teams that pass the ball effectively WHEN they choose to do so.

But I'm not a Hunt owner - I just think now is a bad time to buy (trade or startup). His rookie year was propped up by crazy good QB play and a total lack of other RB options. If I was an owner, I wouldn't panic, either, but it seems the Hunt market is ripe so I'd definitely be looking to maximize his value by sending out feelers and letting a nice trade materialize in the next six months.

 

[Concept Coop]

Sorry, kind of assumed you were part of the discussion with Coop. It was mentioned/addressed in there somewhere. And relying on the running game never works out. You always hear it... they've got a rookie/backup/bad/mediocre QB in the game now so they'll just run more... if it was that easy, coaches would always run more. But what happens is they get conservative and try to run more, but that predictable game plan produces fewer first downs and they end up with fewer plays. So even if the run game sees an increased % of the plays, they still run less. 

Mahomes is an unknown - this is true. But Alex Smith last year was really good. 67.5% completion percentage, 8.00 YPA, and a 26:5 TD to INT ratio in 15 games. I'll take the under on Mahomes reproducing that.

Maybe you think I'm just nit picking. I sort of am. But every year there is significant turnover in the top 10 RBs. It's often a reason people wanted to brush under the rug before the season. It's easy to brush Ware and Mahomes under the rug when talking about Hunt, but I think that's unwise. I mean, Hunt is going ahead of Fournette in startups right now. Fournette just saw his OL and TE/WR corps get better while Ivory departed. Hunt's valuation seems weird to me. Like people are busy looking backwards instead of forwards. 

He finished RB5 at 22.  He looked great, while leading the league in rushing and making the pro-bowl.  He was a better player than Fournette last year and his offense is still much better than Jax.

It sounds like you're really high on Ware and really worried about Mahomes.  That's fair and all, but it should be easy to see why folks are high on Hunt.  If you think Hunt is a stud, Ware and Mahomes shouldn't move the needle.  If you don't think Hunt is a stud, you should be moving him regardless of them.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

His rookie year was propped up by crazy good QB play and a total lack of other RB options.

No it wasn't. Sometimes you have to watch the games.

 

[FF Ninja]

I moved kittle for 2.05, hoping I can nab a rb there but if the guys I like are gone I’ll get a solid wr prospect, or my choice of this years te class. I don’t think the other 3 are getting you anything. Was hoping Ebron landed in Seattle or NO or somewhere else with more of a need, but his contract suggests they will use him. Was hoping brate would hit FA next year and now is competeing for snaps. He could put up some decent weeks for you but no one wants to use that roster spot. Clay is a bye week ww pick up. Kittle is the only guy that has value but that would leave you with a hole at te imo. 

That seems like a nice haul for a guy who went in the 4th or underdrafted in a lock of rookie drafts last year. But with the TE group looking so uninspiring*, I'm beginning to warm up on Kittle after he seems to have dodged the free agency bullet. SF should be an exciting offense, they didn't invest in a new WR, and Kittle is a ridiculous athlete.

*I feel like the TE group somehow got weaker after free agency:

• Doyle - I had thought was solid, but now Ebron is there (as is Swoope)
  
• Ebron - if anyone had hope for him coming around, now he's stuck in a timeshare
  
• ASJ - showed some signs of life last year, but now he's on JAX
  
• Graham - the only FA with a plus landing spot, but I'm of the opinion he's washed up, so plugged up a nice landing spot where I was hoping someone else would go
  
• Burton - signed with what will likely be a middling offense with a talented, but raw TE behind him
  
• I'm expecting fewer than 100 targets for everyone listed above
  
• Detroit, Seattle, New Orleans, and Baltimore seem content to go into 2018 without featuring the TE at all
  

He finished RB5 at 22.  He looked great, while leading the league in rushing and making the pro-bowl.  He was a better player than Fournette last year and his offense is still much better than Jax.

It sounds like you're really high on Ware and really worried about Mahomes.  That's fair and all, but it should be easy to see why folks are high on Hunt.  If you think Hunt is a stud, Ware and Mahomes shouldn't move the needle.  If you don't think Hunt is a stud, you should be moving him regardless of them.

Ha, no, I'm seriously not. In either case. I just view it like the stock market. Everything hit just right for Hunt last year. I think he's got a few speed bumps in his path this year. Combine that with a LOT of interesting rookie talent at the position and I feel like Hunt's stock price is primed for a non-negligible dip in the coming season. I'm mainly thinking about this from a startup perspective (don't want to buy high) since I don't have him anywhere, but it does apply to some of the trades I've seen discussed here.

I agree he was better than Fournette, but Fournette's situation just improved. I know draft pedigree doesn't matter much to us at this point, but when it comes to trade value, if he and Hunt both disappoint in 2018 for some reason, Hunt will get written off quicker.

 

[FF Ninja]

No it wasn't. Sometimes you have to watch the games.

You can't seriously be playing that card! You're better than that.

ETA: but to be fair, I shouldn't have said "propped up." I should've said "assisted." 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

You can't seriously be playing that card! You're better than that.

ETA: but to be fair, I shouldn't have said "propped up." I should've said "assisted." 

Well I'm trying to be straight forward. He's a talent, and in many ways he helped Smith as much as Smith helped him. A breakaway threat at RB helps keep a defense honest and Hunt made his mark on the league, before any other NFL team even played their first game, in front on a national television audience. So teams literally prepared to stop him starting in Week 2.

As far as not having competition for carries - while that was true to some extent, it will continue to be true because I don't see the Chiefs drafting a RB early and Spencer Ware is not a threat. Ware is very solid - but all RBs have another back to take carries away. Even mentioning him as a threat to Hunt's value is the same as saying Alfred Morris, Malcom Brown, Chris Ivory, James Connor and TJ Yeldon are threats to Zeke Elliot's, Todd Gurley's, LeSean McCoy's, LeVeon Bell's and Leornard Fournette's value. All RBs have a backup that will take some carries. Hunt lead the league in rushing last season. Will his numbers go down? Probably, since they were so high last season but how much is the issue.

 

[FF Ninja]

Well I'm trying to be straight forward. He's a talent, and in many ways he helped Smith as much as Smith helped him. A breakaway threat at RB helps keep a defense honest and Hunt made his mark on the league, before any other NFL team even played their first game, in front on a national television audience. So teams literally prepared to stop him starting in Week 2.

As far as not having competition for carries - while that was true to some extent, it will continue to be true because I don't see the Chiefs drafting a RB early and Spencer Ware is not a threat. Ware is very solid - but all RBs have another back to take carries away. Even mentioning him as a threat to Hunt's value is the same as saying Alfred Morris, Malcom Brown, Chris Ivory, James Connor and TJ Yeldon are threats to Zeke Elliot's, Todd Gurley's, LeSean McCoy's, LeVeon Bell's and Leornard Fournette's value. All RBs have a backup that will take some carries. Hunt lead the league in rushing last season. Will his numbers go down? Probably, since they were so high last season but how much is the issue.

Hunt got 87% of the carries last year. I'm not saying Ware is going to make it a 50/50 split. I mean, you said you've got him RB9 before the rookies, so we actually seem to agree on his value. Most people having him ranked around RB5, I think. All I'm saying is that QB play and a few carries/targets ceded to Ware will be enough to drop him from his current price, so I don't see the value in drafting him (or trading for him) at this point in time, and that I would encourage others to consider selling if they can get RB5 value for him now. Fantasy football players aren't as liquid as stocks, but selling Hunt right now at his current value seems pretty easily achieved. 

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Ninja dont like hunt l....got the memo....to me in dynasty i cant see selling him...hes a keep. Will 2018 be as good as 2017...maybe not but he should have a nice 4/5 year run as a rb1....so unless ur getting better than that i dont know why you would move him....nit afraid of spencer ware....and mahomes upside is better than alex smith...plua they have kelce tyreek the freak plus sammy watkins to prevent 8 in the box.....

 

[kutta]

Hunt got 87% of the carries last year. I'm not saying Ware is going to make it a 50/50 split. I mean, you said you've got him RB9 before the rookies, so we actually seem to agree on his value. Most people having him ranked around RB5, I think. All I'm saying is that QB play and a few carries/targets ceded to Ware will be enough to drop him from his current price, so I don't see the value in drafting him (or trading for him) at this point in time, and that I would encourage others to consider selling if they can get RB5 value for him now. Fantasy football players aren't as liquid as stocks, but selling Hunt right now at his current value seems pretty easily achieved. 

I agree with this. His value isn’t getting much higher. It’s a good time to see what kind of ransom you can get from him.

 

[Hankmoody]

Similarly, I recall the best running games were on teams that didn't pass the ball a ton, but were efficient doing it. Think Trent Green with Priest Holmes and Drew Brees with LT2. Of course, if a team is built with a road grading OL and lockdown defense (your Jets during about 2 of the Sanchez years) it can be accomplished with a struggling passing game. But I think I read the best running games are found on teams that pass the ball effectively WHEN they choose to do so.

But I'm not a Hunt owner - I just think now is a bad time to buy (trade or startup). His rookie year was propped up by crazy good QB play and a total lack of other RB options. If I was an owner, I wouldn't panic, either, but it seems the Hunt market is ripe so I'd definitely be looking to maximize his value by sending out feelers and letting a nice trade materialize in the next six months.

I agree with this. His value isn’t getting much higher. It’s a good time to see what kind of ransom you can get from him.

And that's exactly where I am.  If I can move him for full price and invest elsewhere I would love to do it.  I don't think he's a stud, I think he's a quality NFL talent that had a great year in a great offense with a great situation of no competition for carries.  People that didn't follow Ware in 2016 won't know the feeling but the exact same thing happened to him that year.  He looked to be on cruise control and all of a sudden Reid reided all over it, then he got hurt.  I called for caution but got eviscerated for it - I wonder what those clowns think of Ware now.  Reid has a way of maximizing production from guys in short windows then really letting the air out of the sails.  Heck even Hunt had a tough stretch last year - 9 straight games with no TD's, and in 4 of those he had less than 12 carries. 

 

[thriftyrocker]

Reid has a way of maximizing production from guys in short windows then really letting the air out of the sails.  

Who are you thinking of here? Other than Ware or Char West. His history with good RB is good. He sticks with them until he drafts their replacement, right?

 

[Raback]

I agree with this. His value isn’t getting much higher. It’s a good time to see what kind of ransom you can get from him.

That’s how I view both Hunt and Kamara.  Two guys who I expect to be productive going forward but their value will never be higher than right now, so I’ll sell if I can get a nice haul from someone.  

 

[Buckna]

As an owner, I'm not seeing any king's ransom for Hunt or super high valuation in existing leagues. There's a long thread on here with people discounting his performance through those early games saying "sell high," then pointing to their chest during mid-season when Reid abandoned the run, and then saying well what about Spencer Ware coming back or Alex Smith possibly leaving, etc when Hunt got right at the end of the season. Just look at the contrary opinions in the last page or so. From what I've seen, he's valued lower than the big 3 of Gurley, Zeke, & Bell, he's valued below the other 2nd year guys he outrushed the pants off of (Fournette, Mixon, Kamara), and this topic started off with someone hoping to turn Hunt into the 1.02 so he's lower than the top rookie picks in many leagues.

All the other guys below that I have no interest in downgrading to, maybe Hunt ends up being worth less than some of them next year but they've all got their major question marks. Andy Reid backs are frustrating to own week to week, but are major fantasy forces over the course of a season. KC traded up for him and he delivered so I'm skeptical they will be looking to do anything more than spell him like any other RB. Also, it's not certain that both Ware & West will survive training camp as both are in the last year of their deals and have high salaries for backups. Chiefs have kicked the tires on some cheaper veterans in Rawls and Damien Williams in the last week. I'd be on the lookout for another RB to be drafted late as well to play the receiving or backup role on a cheap rookie contract.

 

[Hankmoody]

Who are you thinking of here? Other than Ware or Char West. His history with good RB is good. He sticks with them until he drafts their replacement, right?

Well you just named two, Charles had maddening stretches of inconsistent usage, and Hunt just went 9 straight games with no TD's averaging RB23 production.  That's 1/2 the season.  Wrapped around that he had two 3 games stretches of stud production.  There's huge risk that if he can't produce those huge games he's an RB2.  And while I acknowledge that there's also huge risk he avoids those 9 game stretches while keeping the stud runs and he's an elite RB that I just traded, I'm ok with that if I get the right exit price.

 

[Andrew74]

What value do you guys give Matt Breida?  I drafted him in the 5th last year as my lottery ticket.  Now the McKinnon owner is sniffing around.  This is a 0.5 PPR. I was thinking of asking for a late 2nd but I have no idea.

Come on, we all know Breida is as exciting as Hunt.  

 

[Concept Coop]

Come on, we all know Breida is as exciting as Hunt.  

I'd take a late 2nd for him in this class. I do admit, however, that he's not a guy I've put much thought in. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Come on, we all know Breida is as exciting as Hunt.  

I'd probably hold rather than take a late second for him. I think the prospects at that point will have just as much question marks - and if McKinnon gets banged up Breida's value would potentially increase (assuming the Niners don't draft anyone).

At the same time if you had depth at RB, it's not a bad profit to take.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Come on, we all know Breida is as exciting as Hunt.  

I like Breida and drafted him in the 5th a lot of places too. 2nd is a nice profit, but I would hold if I don't have a clear target there. I would probably put him ahead of Ballage and Scarbrough who should be off the board by mid 2nd even in full PPR. 

As far as DLF ADP, a late 2nd seems fair so maybe I am overvaluing him. I also would overvalue Jalen Richard who is similar. Wares in waiting. 

 

[Concept Coop]

Randall Cobb?  A while ago it seemed like his value was a mid/late 2nd.  Is he worth an early 2nd now?  Late 1st?  He's going to put up points this season, at least. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Randall Cobb?  A while ago it seemed like his value was a mid/late 2nd.  Is he worth an early 2nd now?  Late 1st?  He's going to put up points this season, at least. 

Cobb definitely sees a value bump as the survivor of the Cobb vs. Nelson cut battle, but he's only got one year left on his contract. I don't think he's shown enough to have more than a "one year WR2/3 rental" price tag right now. He's not old, but I doubt he's featured prominently if he leaves as a FA next year.

 

[Concept Coop]

Cobb definitely sees a value bump as the survivor of the Cobb vs. Nelson cut battle, but he's only got one year left on his contract. I don't think he's shown enough to have more than a "one year WR2/3 rental" price tag right now. He's not old, but I doubt he's featured prominently if he leaves as a FA next year.

I think that's fair.  And I do think he's lost a step.  But I think he's a bit more than a one year rental. There's always the chance that he re-signs - they do like him.  And FA is a crap shoot.  I could certainly see him having a solid season, leading a bad team with cap space to make him one of their top guys.  (Targets are targets.)

I sold him for about 2.09 value this off-season and don't feel good about that now.  I'm thinking 2.01-2.02 might have been possible today. 

 

[FF Ninja]

I think that's fair.  And I do think he's lost a step.  But I think he's a bit more than a one year rental. There's always the chance that he re-signs - they do like him.  And FA is a crap shoot.  I could certainly see him having a solid season, leading a bad team with cap space to make him one of their top guys.  (Targets are targets.)

I sold him for about 2.09 value this off-season and don't feel good about that now.  I'm thinking 2.01-2.02 might have been possible today. 

Man, I don't know what to make of Cobb. I think I listed him in your want/get thread as the cheaper version of Jamison Crowder. Cobb is only 27 so while I agree his production has strangely fallen off a cliff, it's hard to imagine he's actually lost a step. He should still be in his physical prime. And you're right that if he can get targets in 2019 he'll retain some value, but I'll take 120 Rodgers targets over 150 Bortles targets any day... so targets aren't exactly targets, but I get your point. 

You definitely lost a few draft slots assuming you could've found a trade partner, but I wouldn't be optimistic about landing an early 1st if I owned Cobb. If you didn't need him, I wouldn't lose any sleep over that trade. Finding a trade partner who values Cobb is not the easiest task. I'd rather have Gallup or St. Brown than Cobb if my starting spots were already accounted for. Now if I had an early 2nd and my WR3 was like Maclin or Hogan... yeah, I'd be looking to deal that 2nd for a reliable veteran and Cobb might be the best I could get.

 

[bostonfred]

I'm in no hurry to buy Cobb unless it's at a steep discount. When you buy someone as a one year rental and they aren't actually usable, it's a total waste, so I want to wait and see if the packers sign or draft someone. This is a deep receiver class and there are quite a few guys I'd expect to compete for targets right away, and cobb's value is pretty much that he's getting targets from Rodgers. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm in no hurry to buy Cobb unless it's at a steep discount. When you buy someone as a one year rental and they aren't actually usable, it's a total waste, so I want to wait and see if the packers sign or draft someone. This is a deep receiver class and there are quite a few guys I'd expect to compete for targets right away, and cobb's value is pretty much that he's getting targets from Rodgers. 

Usually the guys they draft don't make an immediate impact though and take a back seat to the veterans.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Randall Cobb?  A while ago it seemed like his value was a mid/late 2nd.  Is he worth an early 2nd now?  Late 1st?  He's going to put up points this season, at least. 

Not a shot I'd give a first or even a 2nd. 3 year run now of him going much of nothing. I'm not even confident with his future on the team. Kudos if you're able to get a 2nd for the guy.

There's Adams/Graham/draft/Montgomery (moves back to at least a more WRish role IMO). Cobb has been a whole lot of mediocre for what he's been paid. (And it extends beyond just the Hundley debacle). 

 

[bostonfred]

Usually the guys they draft don't make an immediate impact though and take a back seat to the veterans.

Fair point. I think there are some immediate impact guys in this draft but maybe they get John Rossed for a year if they go to green bay

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm a bit late to the party here but yeah, I'm not sure how Hunt got some big benefit out of Alex Smith last year.  People never really changed things up and were just as content to let Alex Smith try and beat them in week 17 as they were in week 1.  It's not like they were rolling a bunch of extra DBs out there.

And it most certainly didn't result in more scoring opportunities for Hunt because of the ridiculous outlier efficiency the KC receivers had in converting receptions into TDs instead of getting tackled inside the 10.  I remember watching several KC games last year where they scored 30+ points while running zero plays inside the 10, which I am not sure if that even happened a single time to another team.  If anything seems likely to regress to the man it is that.

KC was 26th in the NFL in rushes inside the 5, with 11.  So it's not like this was some Shaun Alexander situation where the QB was leading them down the field and Hunt was plopping into the endzone from the 1 yard line.

I also remember the study people are referencing regarding passing offenses and if I recall (at least at the time), statistically a top fantasy RB was more likely to come from a bottom 10 passing offense than a top 10 passing offense.  I'm not really sure if things have changed in the modern NFL but Shady, Zeke, and Fournette were all top 10 RBs on bad passing offenses last year.  The year before we had Zeke (though Dallas was much more efficient passing the ball last year), Shady, Howard, and Ajayi.in the top 10 in ppg.

 

[barackdhouse]

I'm a bit late to the party here but yeah, I'm not sure how Hunt got some big benefit out of Alex Smith last year.  People never really changed things up and were just as content to let Alex Smith try and beat them in week 17 as they were in week 1.  It's not like they were rolling a bunch of extra DBs out there.

And it most certainly didn't result in more scoring opportunities for Hunt because of the ridiculous outlier efficiency the KC receivers had in converting receptions into TDs instead of getting tackled inside the 10.  I remember watching several KC games last year where they scored 30+ points while running zero plays inside the 10, which I am not sure if that even happened a single time to another team.  If anything seems likely to regress to the man it is that.

KC was 26th in the NFL in rushes inside the 5, with 11.  So it's not like this was some Shaun Alexander situation where the QB was leading them down the field and Hunt was plopping into the endzone from the 1 yard line.

I also remember the study people are referencing regarding passing offenses and if I recall (at least at the time), statistically a top fantasy RB was more likely to come from a bottom 10 passing offense than a top 10 passing offense.  I'm not really sure if things have changed in the modern NFL but Shady, Zeke, and Fournette were all top 10 RBs on bad passing offenses last year.  The year before we had Zeke (though Dallas was much more efficient passing the ball last year), Shady, Howard, and Ajayi.in the top 10 in ppg.

I think the argument with Smith is that he was a highly competent vet. His ability to lead scoring drives consistently and to not make mistakes *did* give upside to Hunt, but as you pointed out they didn't get the goal to go chances that should have been expected. However, with Mahomes there is the very real chance that he busts and the whole offense suffers for it. Certainly if they lean on Hunt more in such a situation that could help him in FF, but the TD upside is gone. 

But as much as Smith being a competent vet helped Hunt, the performance of Hunt really made that offense special. Or close to it. Hill and Kelce as well. What did Smith finish as? QB4? 

As for the general idea of a "bad passing offense" as a target for fantasy RBs, I can see the argument. I suppose we could also just call them "run heavy" teams. Not necessarily bad passing games.

But that runs so counter to the strategy of going after strong overall offenses that score points. Those are the players I want. From teams with good QBs and *other* big weapons. Whether they're run or pass heavy. 

 

[Snorkelson]

I think the argument with Smith is that he was a highly competent vet. His ability to lead scoring drives consistently and to not make mistakes *did* give upside to Hunt, but as you pointed out they didn't get the goal to go chances that should have been expected. However, with Mahomes there is the very real chance that he busts and the whole offense suffers for it. Certainly if they lean on Hunt more in such a situation that could help him in FF, but the TD upside is gone. 

But as much as Smith being a competent vet helped Hunt, the performance of Hunt really made that offense special. Or close to it. Hill and Kelce as well. What did Smith finish as? QB4? 

As for the general idea of a "bad passing offense" as a target for fantasy RBs, I can see the argument. I suppose we could also just call them "run heavy" teams. Not necessarily bad passing games.

But that runs so counter to the strategy of going after strong overall offenses that score points. Those are the players I want. From teams with good QBs and *other* big weapons. Whether they're run or pass heavy. 

I’m not sure the chiefs give up Alex smiths last year on his contract if they didn’t think mahomes was ready. Sure they probably needed the cap room to make the moves they made but he wasn’t cost prohibitive. Its prudent to believe there will be some regression from smiths season but there is also the possibility that he’s good and Reid makes a solid qb out of him immediately as he has in the past with guys like foles. I do expect more ints, but I think the offense will be fine under mahomes. 

 

[Bojang0301]

I’d be opposed to overpaying Cobb but this WR class looks pretty bland. Certainly no prospect that you can look at and go: this guy right here is going to have an immediate impact. Means Cobb is going to be locked into the #2 role with Rodgers throwing. That’s worth something, even if it’s not a lot.

 

[bostonfred]

I’d be opposed to overpaying Cobb but this WR class looks pretty bland. Certainly no prospect that you can look at and go: this guy right here is going to have an immediate impact. Means Cobb is going to be locked into the #2 role with Rodgers throwing. That’s worth something, even if it’s not a lot.

I think Christian Kirk would have an immediate impact, but his ceiling is cooper kupp. Ridley is probably ready to run the full NFL route tree on day one. There's guys i wouldn't be interested in on other teams who i would "reach" for if they landed in green bay. 

 

[Crippler]

I think Christian Kirk would have an immediate impact, but his ceiling is cooper kupp. Ridley is probably ready to run the full NFL route tree on day one. There's guys i wouldn't be interested in on other teams who i would "reach" for if they landed in green bay. 

Kirk, Ridley, Sutton, Moore, Washington are probably not making it to the second round or just the top of 2nd(pick 14) unless TE premium or 2 QB leagues. So going shortly after this will probably be ST. Brown, Gallup, Miller, Tate and Cain. This is more the group you are looking at from pick 15-24 in leagues as Cobb replacements. Do any land in perfect spots would be question and if so, they don’t last past 14 anyways as situation determines draft spot a lot of times on rise or fall. Cobb helps more now but if love on for any of these guys than looking at late 2nd or Early 3rd as Cobb value. Or if you need another position like QB where some nice names are available in 2nd or the TEs. RBs will be Kelly, Ballege, Walton, Adams. Smith or Hines, Wadley in PPR.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm a bit late to the party here but yeah, I'm not sure how Hunt got some big benefit out of Alex Smith last year.  People never really changed things up and were just as content to let Alex Smith try and beat them in week 17 as they were in week 1.  It's not like they were rolling a bunch of extra DBs out there.

And it most certainly didn't result in more scoring opportunities for Hunt because of the ridiculous outlier efficiency the KC receivers had in converting receptions into TDs instead of getting tackled inside the 10.  I remember watching several KC games last year where they scored 30+ points while running zero plays inside the 10, which I am not sure if that even happened a single time to another team.  If anything seems likely to regress to the man it is that.

KC was 26th in the NFL in rushes inside the 5, with 11.  So it's not like this was some Shaun Alexander situation where the QB was leading them down the field and Hunt was plopping into the endzone from the 1 yard line.

I also remember the study people are referencing regarding passing offenses and if I recall (at least at the time), statistically a top fantasy RB was more likely to come from a bottom 10 passing offense than a top 10 passing offense.  I'm not really sure if things have changed in the modern NFL but Shady, Zeke, and Fournette were all top 10 RBs on bad passing offenses last year.  The year before we had Zeke (though Dallas was much more efficient passing the ball last year), Shady, Howard, and Ajayi.in the top 10 in ppg.

Alex Smith didn't play a snap in week 17

The problem here is that I think there might be some confusion between a bad passing offense and an efficient passing offense. Hunt definitely benefited from Alex Smith keeping drives alive and not turning the ball over. Alex Smith's 2017 season was not that different than Drew Brees' 2006 season when Tomlinson scored 28 rushing TDs or Trent Green's 2003 season when Priest Holmes scored 27 rushing TDs. The key thing is that these guys were playing well, they just weren't leading the league in passing attempts. A balanced attack is always going to be good for RB workload.

I don't think it's reasonable to expect Mahomes to operate in as efficient a manner as Alex Smith did. 67.5% completion percentage, 8.00 ypa, and a 5:1 TD to INT ratio is nearly impossible to replicate as a first year starter. If there is a drop off, it will cost the team first downs, field position, and game script. This will adversely impact the RBs. 

But one thing worth noting in regards to Shady, Zeke, and Fournette is that all of those offensive lines were crushing it. Dallas was PFF's 4th ranked OL and Buffalo was 7th. JAX actually only ranked 15th overall by PFF, but they ranked 2nd in run blocking. Buffalo was 4th in run blocking. Hunt's unit was right in the middle (16th). I believe they only lost Fulton in free agency.

Again, I'm not saying Hunt is going to be a bust or anything crazy. He's a good RB. I just think anyone buying now (via trade or startup) is buying high. I'd rather spend my startup budget elsewhere.

 

[Concept Coop]

Have we talked Henry post-Lewis?  Anyone still willing to pay a mid-1st?