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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (19 Viewers)
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Zyphros
Footballguy
B A C
Moore is a top5 dynasty WR.
I'd rather have 2 shots in mid/late 1st than 1 top4 1st. I think I can still steal a few players at 7 and 8 that it would work out just fine. Assuming I have space on my roster at least. 1.04 would excite me even more IF my RB core wasn't like that. Since there's 5 strong RB's there, I'm fine with 2 later picks.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
someone offered me a 2021 2nd rounder and I quickly declined, especially before the NFL draft. This is a hard question for me because I feel a 1st is too much unless top 1 distances themselves after the NFL draft.
Boston
Footballguy
I think it will vary wildly because there is not a consensus #1 right now (at least pre-draft)...if an Owner is zeroed in on a player like Taylor or Lamb they would probably want more then an Owner that maybe likes Swift, Taylor or Lamb equally.
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Maybe close to nothing when the NFL draft concludes but I don't come off that pole position lightly right now so for me I'd need more then most are willing to pay to move from 1 to 2 but at the same time I don't even know if I could pay to move from 2 to 1 what I'd need to move out. In that sense, I don't make any sense. But I hate giving up premium draft picks and I hate coming off that top spot.
Well said. I would not move from 1.1 to 1.2 right now for a current high second, seems unreasonable to expect a late first but that's what it would take and I could easily see me regretting it. Again, at end of the day it might mean nothing to go from 1 to 2 but I'm not messing around with taking that chance unless I'm well compensated.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I made an offer in FFPC of my 1.02 and Ebron to move up to 1.01. Other owner never responded but when Ebron signed with Pittsburgh I revoked it.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
NE without Brady doesn't excite me either. At least Ben is better than anyone NE has at QB. Still, not enough to move from 2 to 1.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Same.
I don't see the gap between 1.02 and 1.01 being a whole lot. Personally I like Ebron a lot more than most but I know he is polarizing. On this particular squad I have Kittle, Waller and Higbee. If I had 1.01 and someone offered me Ebron and 1.02 I would probably instant accept. But with cuts to 16 in FFPC adding a player is really tough. All the more reason why I was trying to move up and clear one spot.
What about Mark Ingram plus 1.02? Or Slayton plus 1.02?
Some are going to see the gap as bigger than others so it's kind of hard to nail down.
1.02 plus 1.10? Or 1.08?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Same. By a wide margin actually. NE is maybe the absolute worst destination for *any* skill player for fantasy.
GB wouldn't be terrible but Pitt is easily the best of the 3 in my book.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
Is that a league where TEs get extra points? Even then I wouldn't touch it especially since this is Dynasty and Big Ben is not getting any younger.
Green Bay has not used their TE much either. Neither team has been especially blessed with TE talent over the years. Finley was a long time ago and like Heath Miller who was a better blocker then receiver but still had some decent usage years it's to far back with different systems to really judge. Jared Cook got about 5 targets a game in his brief run with Green Bay but again a different system. Steelers have just not had much at TE to really gauge but I think Ebron is best receiving TE since Ben has been on the team. I also have a higher degree of confidence of Sternberger taking a second year leap and being a viable receiver then I do in McDonald but McDonald can take some of the blocking burden off Ebron that's part of why I think it's a better fit.
But saying all that I prefer Ian Thomas, a little younger, very strong TE system, and I believe about to be a top 10 TE this year.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Not trying to turn this into an Ebron thing but his numbers improved every year of his career except last year when Luck retired. And he had one year where his numbers basically plateaued. Hardly ordinary but that's ok. He is only 26 and a proven playmaker. To each his own.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Ummmm yeah. FFPC gets 1.5 PPR for TEs. Which I think is actually overblown but they are definitely more valuable and by extension more scarce. Also making them more expensive. The guy I was trying to sell to for the 1.01 has Kaden Smith and Eifert at TE. Ebron would be a huge upgrade IMO.
And as TE's go something to keep in mind is I view this as the worst TE rookie class since I've been playing FFPC. Add to that a position that normally does not offer much help in year one because of the learning curve in a year we stand a good chance of having zero off season work until training camp and teams that need TE probably won't be getting it with a rookie.
This is one of the reasons I'd just not come off Ebron as cheaply as many here indicate. He's the kind of guy I like to hold onto when the season starts and that TE need comes creeping up on people.
Boston
Footballguy
Here are his career numbers:
2014-25-248-1
2015-47-537-5
2016-61-711-1
2017-53-574-4
2018-66-750-13
2019-31-375-3
Outside of those 13 TDs in 2018 (he has 14 combined in his other five seasons) he has been pretty ordinary.
To these two points.
LaFluer does seem inclined to want to to use TE's more but TEN was 21st in TE targets his lone year as their OC and Green Bay was 23rd last year. He's got a long way to go. But do agree he does seem to be making a point to upgrade TE's in Green Bay which one would think is to use them more often. On that same note regarding Pittsburgh they might want to use them more as well, lord knows their GM has been doing everything in his power last few years to upgrade TE, dubiously almost all of the moves have been flops. Ladarius Green, giving up a pick for half a season of Nick Vannett and a pick and really decent pay for Vance McDonald which right now qualifies as his biggest success at the position.
I was pretty high on Ian Thomas breaking out this year even before the Joe Brady hire. That was sweet icing on the cake. I basically anticipate the Saints system, which other then NE has to be been the most friendly TE system in the league the last decade or so.
Need to dig deeper into those numbers which I did on a previous post already regarding Ebron, I think in this thread about a week or so ago. I just don't think those numbers tell the whole story without context, just my opinion. But again, as was just said, don't want to turn this into an Ebron thread and to each their own.
kutta
Footballguy
I go exactly opposite.
There will be some good players at 1.07 and 1.08, and even 2.07 has some value this year. I'll take two really good swings and a long shot over the 1.04. And while I like DJ Moore, I do not put him in the top 10 dynasty WR group, so he's third for me.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yea I'm looking at that and completely disagreeing. You're knocking a guy that had 4 straight 500 yard seasons before he turned 26. Those are very impressive numbers for someone his age. Maybe not for where the Lions took him, but I think that's the problem. People are expecting more than they should. Yeah he is ordinary as top 10 draft picks go. He is just now hitting his prime.
Look at that list of stats you posted and you see a consistent improving trend, other than last year where Luck retired and he got hurt. There is nothing ordinary about that. I think something like 60/600/6 is absolutely in his range for this year in Pitt. That would have been good for a WR3 or as overall TE8 last year. It's not earth shattering but hardly ordinary. Personally I think there is room to grow from that as well. Especially since everyone hates him and he is practically free.
Now as for questions about his toughness and all that which is coming up from last year, maybe there is something to that, IDK.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Drops have been a black mark for him for awhile. They also improved over his first 4 years and I think that 2018 year he blew up was his best as for drops. Obviously last year sucked all around. I get it, people hate him. That's fine.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
What exactly are you trying to accomplish with this deal? Your three deals involve three different positions...do you like two guys evenly at the top and just trying to get another asset because of that?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I disagree with you. There will be plenty of value late in the first and into the 2nd round this year. For example, in start 1 QB leagues Burrow and Tua will be available late in the first and into the 2nd round. Players like Edwards-Helaire (mid to late 1st), Shenault (mid 1st), Tee Higgins (mid to late 1st), Henry Ruggs (middle 1st), Auyuk (late 1st, early 2nd),, Justin Jefferson (late 1st, early to mid 2nd),, and Zack Moss (don't like him, don't care). Reagor, Mims, Vaughn, Pitman, Claypool, Hurts and Herbert.Interesting take. I dig it, but I disagree obviously
I traded all of my picks 1.08 or later. Granted, this pick would be 1.07 and 1.08- that could land you the 3rd and 4th best WRs in this class (or the 5th RB if you choose to go that route). Personally I think this class is loaded with WRs, but the NFL is not loaded with opportunity. There are a lot of vets that are holding onto jobs that will limit rookies or result in a cannibalization of both of their stats. If you're looking for early results, there are only a handful a teams that provide this.
DJ Moore on the other hand, has proven he can be a high target guy (10th in the NFL in 2019). I expect those targets to only go up into the 150 range, putting him among elite company.
1.04 is likely the top WR or the 4th best RB in most cases (my leagues tend to go RB heavy at the top).
If I have DJ Moore, I'm not moving him for those pieces. If I have 1.04 I'd consider the pick package if I was in a major rebuild as I tend to go WR first in a rebuild. Otherwise I stay at 1.04 and take the best available. Personal preference. I like the difference of opinion though!
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Zyphros
Footballguy
I made a post a few days ago that I was considering moving my 1.01 in a league. I haven't gotten any nibbles yet. I tried to offer my 1.01 plus a few other pieces for 1.03 and a really good player. It was a no go. I am actively looking for a way to move from 1.01 to 1.03 ideally. But I can't exactly send mass offers for that type of thing.
As a guy that wants to get out of the 1.01, I'd probably take Ingram or Slayton on top of 1.02/1.03. If I was really happy to have 1.01 and didn't want to trade it away, I probably would pass.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Good discussion on the CAR offense potential. I was slightly interested in Ian T earlier..... but I have reservations due to all the mouths to feed.Good point. I was going more off of Rhule hire than Brady... I forgot about Brady. If he's given the keys to the offense completely, that's a real exciting offense to be in. Thanks for reminding me of that. You have me ready to take Ian Thomas off my trade bait list
Do you see Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, Curtis Sameul and CMC all getting enough targets to warrant value? I think it comes down to 2 primary... DJ & CMC
Zyphros
Footballguy
The way my process works is I go talent first and people move up/down based on athleticism and draft capital. As of right now with athleticism factored in, Swift is my 1.01, Akers is my 1.02, Taylor is my 1.03. I suspect they're all drafted around the same spot, Swift and Taylor maybe late 1st, Akers early 2nd is my guess. With that close spread my rankings are likely to be staying the same. I can gain value by trading down and still getting 1 of my top2 at 1.03.
Hold the 1.01 for now. The price always goes up as the draft gets closer. Guys start to salivate over the thought of having the first pick and someone will always pay more the closer the draft gets and they get itchy to make a deal. Add in the fact that once players are put on teams that usually vaults the value up quite a bit as well.Zyphros said:
If you have a few players you can't decide between and don't mind moving back I would always hold the 1.01 until just after the NFL draft. That is usually when the price tag tops out.
Catbird
Footballguy
I have 3 guys in my top tier that I see as pretty equal value and would be glad to have any of them. That would have me interested in moving down if I had a 1.01. But if Swift goes to KC, for example, and Taylor goes to the Jets or the Cowboys, they take on very different values for me, even though I am firmly a talent over situation drafter. After the draft, I may have a top 2 that I see as even or may have a very clear 1.01. I would hate to trade 1.01 for 1.02 and a green chile cheeseburger before I know landing spots.
I referenced the Saints offense earlier. I know Joe Brady only spent one year with them but I think his only year in the NFL was with them and I believe it had a lot to do with their interest in getting Teddy over so I'm pushing full steam ahead with this thought process.
So on that note this is how I tend to view them in relation to past or current Saints:
Robby Anderson = Robert Meachem a little Ted Ginn
DJ Moore- Michael Thomas
Ian Thomas- Jared Cook, hesitate to use this comp because he's not at that level or athleticism but Jimmy Graham(for what it's worth my optimistic comp for him is another ex-basketball player, Gates. Thomas himself was not recruited out of high school and was discovered by a junior college coach who saw him dunking in a basketball game.)
CMC- Kamara
Samuel- Ginn, maybe a hybrid role, read something about him being a trade candidate
I do think they will try and lighten CMC's role a little this year, at least in snap counts. I don't view Anderson or Samuel as negatives for the value of Moore, CMC or Thomas. I don't project either of them as getting much volume but acting as players who help clear out for more underneath work. My anticipation is Ian Thomas will be third in the passing game pecking order, maybe close to CMC if they scale back his usage a little.
Tau837
Footballguy
I would bet the Chargers have been better than the Saints, and maybe NE also. I went to check Data Dominator, but my subscription has lapsed, so access was denied.
I'd have thought you might be right based on just targets but I was accounting for fact that Chargers have pretty much Gates or Henry for a decade and the Saints in particular had few year run from Jimmy but have been hit or miss on talent at the position.
Turns out if targets it's not who we thought. I do think it requires a deeper dive then just targets because again the level of TE should and does matter but over that last decade I mentioned PHI, IND and DAL were top 3 in TE targets. NO and NE 4th and 5th, SD surprisingly just 9th.
If we looked at more from a production standpoint and say we used yards(receptions kind of tie into targets and TD's seem more random) then NE shoots to the top spot, NO and SD are 4 and 5 with surprisingly SF joining PHI in the 2/3 spot.
In terms of fantasy points I don't like to use the data dominator since I don't play non-PPR but it would be NE, PHI beating out NO by two points.
Tau837
Footballguy
Interesting and surprising to me. I don't really value targets or receptions, but rather what they produce, so I would have been looking at first downs, yards, and TDs. (Over a large sample, I don't necessarily agree that TDs are random.)
joey
Footballguy
Can’t say if they’re good or not, it they’re dynasty rankings....
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/dynasty-overall.php
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
PPR, what rookie pick would you be willing to give up to get DJ Moore?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
His value IMO is anything after 1.5, but I'm not a Moore owner and at this moment don't plan to be.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I am not terribly high on this class, so I would lean towards agreeing with you at this pre-draft standpoint.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I like a couple of the backs. WRs, I’d take Moore easily. But not knowing where the RBs go or how high they’re ultimately drafted, I’d at least value Moore equal to the 1.01 at this point.
Boston
Footballguy
If you feel that way would you think about dealing him since there are no guarantees that Bridgewater is not there for a while (he should start for at least two years even if he doesn't work out)...if Carolina hits on him their life just got a lot easier as far as the future is concerned.
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