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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Moore's value probably jumps with the addition of Joe Brady as OC, right?
Zyphros
Footballguy
People think Bridgewater will be there for 2 years minimum? I doubt it. He's a slightly better version of Tyrod Taylor. What exactly is special there? He's replaceable and I'm sure their new analytical approach will showcase that. I grew up in Charlotte, that fan base absolutely loved Cam, no chance Bridgewater lives up to it and people will get frustrated really quickly when he can't clutch a game.
I do own DJ Moore in a few places, I don't think I can get what he's worth so I'm just holding. My leagues aren't the most active and since communication is a little difficult in FFPC, it makes it even harder for there to be nibbles. I've had none. I think he'll be a great WR2 at worst, could be a dominant WR1 if the QB gets solved. Maybe Teddy 2 gloves is the answer, I don't think he is though and expect the team to look at QB's next year, after a year right now of rebuilding that defense.
Boston
Footballguy
I maybe looking at this deal wrong but if I am reading it right it looks like that he will be there for at lease two years:
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/teddy-bridgewater-14441/
Zyphros
Footballguy
I look at it as NFL bite contracts all the time for better players. They will be looking for their QB of the future soon.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think your heart is clouding your judgement. I wouldn’t say that lightly; you’re a steady source of well thought out statements. Teddy is a better passer than CAR has had there in 3 yrs imo. The coaching changes seem to be viewed as “good.” Be patient, the nibbles are people trying to buy low.
I looked at this contract the other day and basically no way they'd cut him after one year but the way they structured his deal to make $10M of his $17m 2021 base pay guaranteed was something that provided Teddy the security of two years of pay but also allowed CAR to trade him with a minimal cap hit after 2020 should they be inclined and allow his potential new team to inherit the $10M guarantee. Key is they got a potential out after year one.
As for Teddy himself I would comp him to the player I know some NFL people comped him to coming into the league which is Alex Smith and no that does not excite me for his pass catchers.
But as this relates to DJ Moore he just went for 86/1174 in his first 14 games before getting hurt early in game 15. That's a 98/1,341 pace in 16 games with a trio of broke down Cam and backup level Kyle Allen as his QB's and all the while the while he was 22 years old.
I don't own DJ Moore. Wish I did, would like a better QB then Teddy if I owned him, but he sure would not be scaring me off either based on what he did with what he had to work with last year.
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If I had the 1.1 I wouldn’t move it for Jacobs. I’m not saying it’s way far off, but I would definitely need more.
I will go the opposite.
How many spots that Taylor, Swift, Dobbins or Edwards-Helaire can go that have more value than Jacobs with PPR ability and fighting Jalen Richards
- miami. 1st round. Nope. Pick 38. Less
- KC. 1st round. Probably but Damien there. 2nd round. No way
- baltimore. 1st round. No thanks
- Indy. Pick 34. No. RBBC
- Detroit pick 35. No. Talented back still there
- Chargers pick 37. No. Ekeler there
- Houston. Pick 40. Maybe but I don’t like
- Tampa Pick 45. Maybe and I like but not Jacobs like with Jones there and pass first. But 2nd best spot to KC 1st
- Atlanta Pick 47. Maybe but got to wait a year. Pass for me
- Jets Pick 48. Like Atlanta but worse
- pitt Pick 49. Abou same as last 2. Big Ben than gone. Pass
- Rams. Pick 52. Team in decline. Like them for passing but pass
- Buffalo. Pick 54. Hard RBBC. No thanks
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
You pretty much hit on why I asked...the more you look at the landscape their aren't many grade-A landing spots...at least not what Jacobs has and right now he is far less of an unknown.
That’s fine, but Jacobs is no Barkley either. And you’re forgetting the WR’s (particularly Lamb, who I am very fond of) and SF and two-Qb leagues.
Boston
Footballguy
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I would take KC, Indy, Tampa, Atlanta, and Pitt as good landing spots for a RB this year. I really like Mack though so I don't think the Colts would take an RB in the second round. Pitt could fall off after Big Ben, but not sure he is retiring soon.
In that case pretty darn near equal to be honest. That would likely change if like a KC or TB took one of the top four .
rockaction
Footballguy
This is the exact question I was wondering. Would you give Jacobs up for 1.01? I think movement recently has said no, 1.01 isn't enough. I would say if Swift or Dobbins lands in Atlanta, Tampa, or KC they're worth Jacobs, maybe more, considering Gruden's usage last year, Jacobs's durability questions, and Richard coming back to LV.
I'm more sold on Swift than others, though.
I'm more sold on Swift than others, though.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Why are we treating this discussion like LV is some great spot for a running back? A bad team with a pass catching back getting paid relatively big money (for that role) for the next 2 years.
There are plenty of landings spots that are at least as good if not better than a 2-down role on a poor team.
There are plenty of landings spots that are at least as good if not better than a 2-down role on a poor team.
I don't think LV is a good spot for an incoming rookie of course but Jacobs is 22, proven, the OL is good and the really the only knock at all is passing game usage but he's got the ability. If he we knew for sure he caught more passes he'd be my RB3 overall in dynasty right now but as is that usage is only thing keeping him back but again he has the ability to be rather good at this and they've said multiple times his role will grow. And Richards contract is really year to year. There are not a lot of open RB spots so most of these higher touted rookie RB's will have another RB to contend with, Richards on basically a year to year contract is not a big worry to me.
My guess for Jacobs is he's a 40+ catch RB this upcoming season and will eventually become a 60+ catch RB.
Biggest thing to me, and why I would call Jacobs value equal to 1.1 when we don't know any of their landing spots, is that we know Jacobs is good. RB is not a high bust rate position for early picks. I'll gamble a lot of 25 year old known good RB's to get a 21 year old unknown highly pedigreed RB all day without knowing draft spots. I'm less inclined to take that gamble on a 22 year old known good RB who has little tread on his tires for an unknown 21 year highly pedigreed RB. But there are some landing spots that once the draft is over, I could see me having a preference for the 1.1.
But for now, I chalk it up as equal. I own Jacobs in just one league, I would be inclined to not accept if offered 1.1 for him right now.
az_prof
Footballguy
I would say 1.06. This is a deep and talented class of rookie WRs and while Moore was good his situation and his talent to me seem capped. I don't see him becoming a dominant WR1 in fantasy.
jabarony
Footballguy
Agreed. At least not for a few years. Let someone else wait it out. Bridgewater's output is now being split between CMC,Moore, Samuel, Anderson, Thomas/rest. Last 2 seasons Bridgewater played were under 3500 yds and 14 TDs. Not a lot to go around even if he sees a 20% bump.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
He’s only played a full season once. I’m not going to disagree, but here is the depth chart from that year, his 2nd in the league. They went 11-5 but I think they also got a ton of tds from their defense that year(although I might be a year off here.) I’d consider these numbers his floor, although the ceiling doesn’t go real high. He didn’t need to be prolific in his starts last year, but Carolinas defense has some holes to plug as well, and he could get more volume than we might expect. Somewhere in the 4000-4500 and 22 tds isn’t a terrible leap to make.
What kind of value do people place on Singletary? I’m sure there are those that like what they saw and believe it’s his backfield next year and then those that think they’ll draft /sign another RB and perhaps become a RBBC...
Early 2021 1st?
Mid 2021 1st?
Late 2021 1st?
2021 2nd?
Early 2021 1st?
Mid 2021 1st?
Late 2021 1st?
2021 2nd?
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
There seemed to be a lot of rumblings this offseason about them adding a back, but it has not happened yet. I like his talent but at this point I would not pay more than an early 2nd for him without seeing what they do in the draft.
Easier for me to assign a ranking relative to their position. He'd be my RB6 in this draft.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'd take him as my 6th RB in this draft. So plus however many receivers go ahead. I'm struggling a little with where the receivers fit but I think Singletary would be something like 1.8 to 1.11.
ETA adjusted slightly.
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robb
Footballguy
Great to hear. Which 5 rookie RBs would you take this year in front of Singletary, understanding it could vary depending on which teams they end up on?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah without knowing landing spots I've got Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, Akers and then CEH. I expect all of them to be drafted into a spot that I'd like better than KJ. But that's today and I also expect one of these 5 will perhaps surprise us by falling. But then there is probably 1 other guy out there that gets drafted higher than we expected.
Pwingles
Footballguy
I think the 6th back in this class is close to right
Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, Akers, CEH, and could make an argument for where he and Moss fall
Zyphros
Footballguy
I'm probably lower on Singeltary than most. From a pure talent to talent standpoint when Singletary was coming out, he was a Tier4 RB for me. This year I have 5 RB's that are better than that, and another 5 RB's in the Tier4 category for this year. That would put him about mid 2nd if I ranked him straight into this year and not factor in what he's shown already.
But we know he's decent, and could do more than his rookie year showed. He has to survive the draft though. Normally I don't go looking to buy those types of RB's. Lower talent profiles and in plus situations. They're either in committee's sooner than you want or fade out rather quickly because they can't sustain volume. I'd be selling Singletary if I owned him anywhere. I'd look for a late 1st, I'd probably accept an early 2nd and a throw in player I'm interested in.
But we know he's decent, and could do more than his rookie year showed. He has to survive the draft though. Normally I don't go looking to buy those types of RB's. Lower talent profiles and in plus situations. They're either in committee's sooner than you want or fade out rather quickly because they can't sustain volume. I'd be selling Singletary if I owned him anywhere. I'd look for a late 1st, I'd probably accept an early 2nd and a throw in player I'm interested in.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Rig24
Footballguy
They must really not like Mike Evans.
edit: didnt think he was listed, down at 29.
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Catbird
Footballguy
Of course it depends on league and your team needs, but I have a rough second tier ending at 1.07 and then a WR only 3rd tier of 5 immensely different guys who come out with very nearly equal value. For me, the difference between 1.03 and 1.06 isn't enough to give up getting one of those guys with the #6. I see it breaking tiers there and you could have my 2.01 or 2.02 to let me lock up a top 3 guy. So, I guess just "This" to Bazinga's early 2nd.
The thing is, this all changes so much with team schemes and draft capital. I suspect I would give a higher pick in the return after the NFL draft, when we can see a couple of these guys fall into irretrievable situations.
The thing is, this all changes so much with team schemes and draft capital. I suspect I would give a higher pick in the return after the NFL draft, when we can see a couple of these guys fall into irretrievable situations.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
Would not make a move like that until the draft is in the books...way too room for much error with all three guys...would hate to give up a nice asset like a 2021 #1 and have the draft results blow it up.
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Not a big fan of any of these guys to be honest, but if I had to rank them: Singletary, DMont, CEH
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Darius Slayton - can he really give much more than he did last year?
I'm thinking of seeing how high of a 2nd I can get for him in Zealots IDP leagues.
I'm thinking of seeing how high of a 2nd I can get for him in Zealots IDP leagues.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
2nd year leap seems within the range of outcomes. I've been targeting him on teams that are thin at WR. I don't expect a ton but I'd love to see what happens. 2nd seems good though.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I was able to get 2.04 and 2.06 for Slayton, 3.06 and 4.12 recently. I didn't necessarily want to move Slayton but that value just seemed to good. I'm local so I see a lot of Giants' games and he looks good (big and fast) but with Shepard, Tate and Engram in the mix and a non "sure thing" at QB I just wasn't sure if he'd see enough volume.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
This is where I'm at. In any given week one of these guys could perform, but I think you're chasing points with these guys.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
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