Tha Guru
Footballguy
I’m about to pull the trigger. PPR league, everything else standard. I’m giving up Nuk and L. Bell for Jacobs and Andrews.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Milkman
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I have the same situation and am considering very similar options. If Dobbins is there I take him, but otherwise I'm looking to trade back or out. I would absolutely run to get Tyreek if I only had to add Diggs. I just am not a Diggs guy.
So far I have mostly been focusing on moving back strategies, but I should look at options to trade out, too. If I can get a 1st plus like 1.07 I probably do that deal. But I need to pivot to other possibilities. I may also just stand pat and take Swift.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Unicorn will hold more value longer, and could still emerge and live up to his hype. Even if he doesn't he could still be tradable. DJ could help people potentially win a title this year, *maybe* the year after (assuming we play 2020 and then 2021 without significant corona impacts, big assumption), so he has value to a boxscore, but probably not much market value.
-OZ-
Footballguy
If I'm giving tyreek, I'm not adding anything on my side. Probably wouldn't give him for the pick and diggs anyway.
I would not sell Tyreek for this. Not enough considering that Diggs falls a lot in my mind by going to Buffalo
Milkman
Footballguy
Lots of love for Preston Williams today. Miami not drafting a WR has everybody bullish on him. I understand that thinking but man I don't have a ton of confidence in the Dolphins FO. I hope you guys are right but remember it took ARob two years to recover from this injury and William's was hurt pretty late in the season last year. Not sure he's ready to go beginning of this season.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
northern exposure
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
As a Tyreek owner, if that was the 1.01 I might consider it. But I might not, as Diggs is almost a negative value IMO as no one wants him since he got shipped off to Siberia.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'd take two 2020 seconds and Slayton, which I just offered Drake for. The calcs say it's of value. Drake is 26 going on 27 and there might not be football this year. Plus, he's playing on a one-year deal with Edmonds at age 24 behind him. He's certainly shoppable.
If Diggs is negative value, sign me up. I want to offer Zeke and 1.01 for Barkley and Diggs straight up. Diggs is one of the most underrated receivers in football.
Boston
Footballguy
Drake Owner here and I would not go near two seconds and Slayton for him...right now Drake is in an optimal situation...he has a chance to be a top 10 RB...if I am dealing that I want much more then the other Owner nibbling around the edges of his roster...Slayton is very intriguing but there are a decent amount of WRs like him out there, no way is he a foundation piece for a potential top 10 RB...two 2's are nice but again, not when talking about a RB with that much upside this year...if I am dealing Drake I want the deal to involve me improving my starting line-up or getting some young prospects that carry a little more weight.
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Zow
Footballguy
I had 1.9 in a non-ppr superflex league. Lamb and Jeudy both there at the pick (top 8 were the 5 RBs and 3 QBs).
Offered the 1.9 to the Drake owner. He declined pretty quickly.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
All depends on what you are looking to do this season...I am contending and have a solid nucleus of youngsters so I am not gonna deal him for something like that when it will probably hurt my chances this year...not directed at you but at some point you gotta play to win and not always try to get younger, especially when the guy is "only" 26 and has very low-mileage...if I am gonna deal Drake it will be in-season if my team is struggling and if that is the case hopefully someone who is close will over-pay or it will be part of a package to to take a run at a big time stud.
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joey
Footballguy
Exactly this.
the team were I own Drake won it all last year (lots of luck involved of course) and he is plugged in as my RB2. If I was offered 2 2nd rounders for him in that league, I’d say no. But if I didn’t have a chance this year and someone offered me 2 2nd round dart throws, I might just accept that offer.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
That's some crazy overvalued Drake right there.Zow said:
rockaction
Footballguy
Yep. I have Drake and that's fair value according to calcs -- I'd take that in a heartbeat. If they don't play football this season, he's 27 or 28 by the time they get to playing and then he's essentially worthless as an asset other than providing immediate points for one's team.
rockaction
Footballguy
26 going on 27 and age creeps in already for running backs, who hit their fantasy scoring peak at 26 or so. We scoff at 26 being old, but it sort of is.Boston said:
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I always liked Drake more than most but at this point he’s one of those rbs that will probably be worthless in 3 months imo. If he gets banged up or another rb forces a rbbc he’s done. The cards take a rb next year and you never hear from him again. Getting anything close to late first value in this years draft is a steal.Boston said:
Of course he could have a great 3 year stretch and be a steal but so many rbs flash and disappear. Reminds me exactly if Damien Williams last year. It’s all situation and a small sample size. I probably favor young players too much but I’ll gamble in the draft.
To me, Drake fits the profile of the RB who tears up the league at the end of one season, gets over drafted and over valued everywhere, then comes out and gets outplayed by his backup.Boston said:
Happens almost every year and we are left holding the worthless bag of soupy dog #### and wondering what happened.
rockaction
Footballguy
This sounds right. I have Drake but I also have Edmonds, which helps. I almost moved Drake for 2.03, 2.09 and Darius Slayton, but in the end was told 2.09 and Slayton would have been what got the deal done. I'd rather let either this year or next play out and see what I can get -- I think once things settle in, a win-now team will do better than that. But 1.09 is his calc value.
rockaction
Footballguy
True that. If you believe in him, then you believe he'll beat out Cam Akers. Problem is, does the staff believe? This is the staff that said he wasn't ready for the playbook in the early-middle stages of last year. As a running back. I have no idea what that's coachspeak for, but this is the same crew that insisted Todd Gurley wasn't hurt during the Super Bowl and went with CJ Anderson.Milkman said:
Sure thing, runners-up.
Can't believe a word these out of these guys' mouths especially.
Boston
Footballguy
All depends on where your team is...as I said (and feel very strongly about) I'd rather take the chance on Drake being a low end #1/high end #2 and help me win a title this year...if your team is good and young overall at some point you need to value winning over just getting young (and it's not like Drake is like Ingram age-wise)...now if you just don't like Drake that is a different story but right now I would much rather have Drake then a Justin Jefferson (who is the type of player you are getting with that pick...and I do like him a lot) because Drake has a far better chance of helping me win a title this year.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
In your opinion it depends on your team. IMO, he's fools gold and you got Damien Williams and he's useless in redraft nevermind dynasty. He's a sell on every kind of team to me.
rockaction
Footballguy
Wow. That's a strong opinion. Williams never put together the half of a season Drake had with AZ. But to each his own. Strength noted.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
That definitely happens sometimes. But sometimes you get Derrick Henry/Chris Carson/Austin Ekeler out of the deal.
I don't agree with the Damien Williams comparison. Williams is a guy who was awful in the NFL before stepping into KC. Drake has flashed before (on the same time where Williams sucked, FWIW).
EBF
Footballguy
Late 1st would be a fair price for Drake if you're in win now mode in a PPR league. People tend to overrate the talent level of rookies compared to established NFL players. You can argue that some of the WR prospects available for a late 1st are better long-term holds, but on raw talent Drake would be a top 3-5 RB in this draft and the opportunity is instant. I don't always handcuff my RBs, but in this case I'd say you definitely need to grab Edmonds because Drake's durability is a little suspect and Edmonds may be a legit talent in his own right. Lock up this backfield and you have a decent chance at top 10 PPR RB season in 2020.
Could it go south? Yes, but there is risk with every decision. If you stand pat and pick someone like Akers or Reagor, there is no guarantee of production either. The hit rate on even premium rookie picks is about 40-50%.
That being said, for long window teams that aren't prioritizing the immediate payoff, I'd probably be inclined to keep my pick. This is one reason why "dynasty rankings" are inherently problematic. Player value depends on your team composition. I don't like Drake as a buy for teams looking 2-3 years ahead. I think he's a "win now" special.
Could it go south? Yes, but there is risk with every decision. If you stand pat and pick someone like Akers or Reagor, there is no guarantee of production either. The hit rate on even premium rookie picks is about 40-50%.
That being said, for long window teams that aren't prioritizing the immediate payoff, I'd probably be inclined to keep my pick. This is one reason why "dynasty rankings" are inherently problematic. Player value depends on your team composition. I don't like Drake as a buy for teams looking 2-3 years ahead. I think he's a "win now" special.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Which is kind of crazy because the guy has basically the cleanest NFL injury history of any RB in the league. In his 4 year NFL career he has never missed a single game to injury.
I know it's not like he's a workhorse back but the dude has 800 touches and nary a ding to show for it. In a league where we lose 7 or 8 fantasy players for the entire season every year just from training camp reps that is pretty remarkable.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I think it is heavily in favor of 1.01, T. Hill, 2021 1st.
1.01 > 1.02 (This is close as I think there is a top 2 then a drop off, but you get first pick of that choice)
T. Hill > Sutton and 1.04 (This could be close, but my league has small starting requirements so I take Tyreek here, If I was rebuilding I could see Sutton 1.04)
2021st for free
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rockaction
Footballguy
Depends how badly you think Sutton got dinged by Jeudy and if the other side is willing to wait a year to cash in on the pick. It's pretty even right now. I'd take the 1.01 and Tyreek.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I mean its not even close IMO
1.1> 1.2
Hill > Sutton
And you could almost call 1.4 and mid 1st in 21 a push.
rockaction
Footballguy
I gently disagree with that. On average, if you imagine the pick as 1.06, it's about an eighteen to twenty percent decrease in value, plus the cost of a year.
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As long as this isn't a superflex league, I don't really see a lot of value difference between 1.01, 1.02, and 1.03. And just for a point of data, Dobbins fell to me at 1.04 in one of my leagues (CEH/JT/Swift were the first 3 picks).
So what I really see here is Tyreek for a great bargain.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
its about getting Hill IMO. And with his legal stuff behind him (very encouraging that he received full custody) I don't think he's high risk to get into trouble. Maybe I'm wrong but I think he's in a great situation with a great coach and QB, and is going to win a LOT of games for his owners on any given weekend.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
They're playing football this season. They're already discussing moving some games to Saturdays if there's no college football. Goodell only cares about the TV money - and thank God for that.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
RB for sure (that's a nice roster) I don't care if its SF or not, I'd go CEH or Taylor, whoever you like best.
rockaction
Footballguy
