Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah no doubt about it. I would say there is still time for a couple of them to be league winners this year, though. But certainly not what people wanted in redraft. I drafted Dobbins and Taylor in many, many redrafts. Dobbins was an upside depth pick that could still payoff, but not holding my breath on it. Whereas Taylor was someone I was counting on for week in week out production. He hasn't been *terrible* in that regard, especially in comparison to how dreadful RB has been in 2020 so far. But definitely a major disappointment especially now as he seems to be fading.Concept Coop said:
Swift seems to be trending up the most right now and has league winning upside in play right now. CEH will still get quality games but not the week in week out production that people expected. Akers, well, who knows but looks like a red shirt year.
And Robinson and Gibson have saved many teams for me. Homeruns.
Last edited by a moderator:
You Know Who I Am
Footballguy
How do you all value young WRs that have clearly hit. Let’s think of this years rookie crop—
I’ve got a guy sniffing around Higgins and he’s offered me a likely top 4 2021 1st, mid 2nd, and D Harris for him
I feel like I’m stupid for not accepting, but really this becomes a top 3-4 pick for Higgins (Harris and the 2nd don’t do a whole lot for me)... but isn’t Higgins what anyone would hope that top 3-4 pick can become? Firsts are 50/50 at best it seems.
First- what does everyone else think in situations like this?
Sepnd- am I dumb if I decline? Especially if I am win now
thanks,
YKWIA
I’ve got a guy sniffing around Higgins and he’s offered me a likely top 4 2021 1st, mid 2nd, and D Harris for him
I feel like I’m stupid for not accepting, but really this becomes a top 3-4 pick for Higgins (Harris and the 2nd don’t do a whole lot for me)... but isn’t Higgins what anyone would hope that top 3-4 pick can become? Firsts are 50/50 at best it seems.
First- what does everyone else think in situations like this?
Sepnd- am I dumb if I decline? Especially if I am win now
thanks,
YKWIA
Last edited by a moderator:
rockaction
Footballguy
If you don't value the 2nd or Harris, or you're in win-now, then you're not stupid in the least because, yes, Higgins is exactly what you hope a high first-rounder will become.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That is the beautiful thing about dynasty format.
No one ranks these players the same. Everyone has a mix of priorities that are different being applied to every player.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
What is Adam Trautman worth?
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
3rd at best I’d say. Probably what you paid for him this year, since he hasn’t shown much either way.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I think that's a little light, but then again it's also an easy "profit" flip if you look at it how you drafted him. Likely took him late 1st or early 2nd. So in theory you're coming out ahead.
I wouldn't take that deal and the main reason being I'd want a better RB instead of Damien Harris.
As for Higgins' value overall, there doesn't seem to be any reason why he shouldn't/isn't considered a top15 dynasty WR. The main things I look for when I do my rankings and go through this exact type of evaluation is youth, breakout, overall offense, volume, contract. None of those are bad signs for Higgins going forward so he immediately goes ahead of guys with other types of question marks for those categories.
On a side note, 2020 has lots of rookie breakouts already, 2021 looks to be almost just as good. It'll be very interesting to see how the overall landscape changes, but the people who will profit the most, are the ones who figure out which WR's go ahead/behind which in these 2 classes. I'd place a bet that Higgins comes out as one of the top fantasy WR's of both classes. I'm sure everyone has their list of the one's that hit though and nobody is likely to get them all right.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Is Swift the 1.01, now that he’s starting and getting the majority of the touches? He looked great yesterday. He was my pre-draft 1.01 - and I think he’s back up there for me. Assuming he’s jumped CEH and JT, he only needs to jump one of Jacobs, Sanders or Henry to be a first round startup pick. I personally wouldn’t trade him for any of those guys today. (Not that I’d feel great using a 1st on him yet.)
I think my top 12, plus Herbert to finish out the tier, would be:
T1 - Swift
T2 - Higgins, Lamb, Jefferson, Claypool, CEH, Robinson, Gibson, Dobbins
T3 - Taylor, Jeudy, Aiyuk, Herbert
I think my top 12, plus Herbert to finish out the tier, would be:
T1 - Swift
T2 - Higgins, Lamb, Jefferson, Claypool, CEH, Robinson, Gibson, Dobbins
T3 - Taylor, Jeudy, Aiyuk, Herbert
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
This could be perceived as a dumb question, because it is about a guy who has been irrelevant for the last 3 years?
Jordan Howard - any value in having him sit in my bench in a Dynasty League. There aren't many options at RB and I never have him in the starting rotation. Safe to say, after his stint with Philly and Miami - his career is toast and can drop him?
I think I am going to drop him... just looking for outsider perspective on him.
Jordan Howard - any value in having him sit in my bench in a Dynasty League. There aren't many options at RB and I never have him in the starting rotation. Safe to say, after his stint with Philly and Miami - his career is toast and can drop him?
I think I am going to drop him... just looking for outsider perspective on him.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
BespokeJort
Footballguy
On a related note, price check on Salvon Ahmed. Any trade action going down?
well first you need to acquire him, the waiver wires will be hot with multiple claims his week
BespokeJort
Footballguy
True. I acquired him last week after it looked like he was the best healthy runner they had though, and in a dyno thread in particular I doubt I’m alone—gotta take your shots early as rb’s showing signs of life go fast.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
BespokeJort
Footballguy
Feels about right. I think I’d buy for that 3rd if I was making a push and needed to fill a hole at RB, but would need to see him do it again to consider a 2nd
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't think Ahmed is near a third yet. Perhaps I play in a different league, but nobody is paying a third for him when Gaskin is coming back the week after next. He's a fill-in, just like he is on the team.
So far, anyway.
So far, anyway.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Very much aware of the stat line and underwhelming performance, was more asking based on potential landing spots for him?
I've looked around at potential situations, Seattle, 49ers, Texans... I know they are a long shot, but just seeing if anyone is forecasting Howard having a future in the NFL beyond this week.
Thanks for your responses.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
Out of curiosity, if you were a contender or making a playoff push with a hole at rb to plug, what other rb would you be targeting/expect to be able to buy for a 3rd? In my league that’s pretty bare-minimum cheap for a guy getting featured carries and doing ok with them, even with a possible endpoint (we have a 4 round draft; when I see a guy getting carries go for a 4th it’s been because they have looked like crap with them EG Peyton barber a couple years ago).
I don’t mean that to dispute your point, I just think the context could be helpful.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Overall I like this list a lot. I’d prefer Robinson and Gibson over CEH at this point though and Aiyuk over Jeudy but it feels very accurate.
To add to it you can probably just pencil the rest of the QBs from this years class right behind Herbert
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd pay what I needed to land a guy I could on producing for the rest of the season, at least. I don't think that's Ahmed. McKissic is the first name that comes to mind. Gallman is another guy who should be cheap. Hines will cost more than a 3rd, but is young and will be at least relevant for the next few years.
I'll be quick to change my tune of Ahmed keeps it up. But 2021 will be a deep class and I'd hate to miss out on a quality QB or WR prospect for a 1 or 2 week Band-Aid.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Burrow, Shenault, Ruggs, and Akers probably make up the next tier, in some order. Then Moss, Pittman, Mims, and Tua. Tua scares me a little bit.
rockaction
Footballguy
For a third? I think I'd look at Edmonds, McKissic, and Gallman, but I have the benefit of reading Concept Coop's answer. Edmonds immediately came to mind. He's not, in my mind, a second round pick with Drake back, but a third? Sure. Plus, if you play in flex leagues, Antonio Brown or something like him is worth about a mid-2nd. I'd bump up and try to get a receiver like that. Crowder comes to mind as someone who also has pure 2nd value. I think a third round pick just strikes me as expensive for a one-game rental is all. Maybe that's not what the market says, though. My league seems notoriously tough when it comes to parting with picks.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
3rd round picks are near pocket lint value even with IDP.
On that note you should be asking for 3rd round picks as sweeteners to deals whenever possible so you have extra laying around for things like this.
Its unlikely that you can use 3rd round picks to move up in the rookie draft, so this is likely the best use for them.
rockaction
Footballguy
Third round saw Herbert, Gibson, Kenneth Murray, and Logan Wilson go in ours. A.J. Dillon went 3.01. (I picked him over Gibson. This was right after the draft and before all the guys left.)
Lotta stuff going off the board in the third in the league I play in.
kutta
Footballguy
Agreed. I scored Gibson and Herbert in the third. Moss went at 3.02.rockaction said:Third round saw Herbert, Gibson, Kenneth Murray, and Logan Wilson go in ours. A.J. Dillon went 3.01. (I picked him over Gibson. This was right after the draft and before all the guys left.)
Lotta stuff going off the board in the third in the league I play in.
But, the rest of the third was really bad.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Price check on Ekeler in PPR?
His owner wants a 2021 1st + more (My 1st would be mid to late as of now). I think that is too high of a price at this point, but maybe I'm wrong?
His owner wants a 2021 1st + more (My 1st would be mid to late as of now). I think that is too high of a price at this point, but maybe I'm wrong?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Maybe my analogy was inaccurate. They do have some value.rockaction said:Third round saw Herbert, Gibson, Kenneth Murray, and Logan Wilson go in ours. A.J. Dillon went 3.01. (I picked him over Gibson. This was right after the draft and before all the guys left.)
Lotta stuff going off the board in the third in the league I play in.
Most draft classes are not as rich as 2020 was but there are always some hidden gems.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
There’s usually one or two guys I’m interested in at the beginning of the third but rarely much later in the round, which I’m assuming is where the pick of anyone interested in trading for a likely rental RB would be.
Obviously you can hit on a sleeper anywhere and if you’re well above average as a drafter and routinely nailing late picks maybe it’s worth more to you. My own FF core competency is more mining the Ahmed’s of the world off the waiver wire for free and keeping or flipping as necessary based on roster needs and belief or lack thereof in the player
Obviously you can hit on a sleeper anywhere and if you’re well above average as a drafter and routinely nailing late picks maybe it’s worth more to you. My own FF core competency is more mining the Ahmed’s of the world off the waiver wire for free and keeping or flipping as necessary based on roster needs and belief or lack thereof in the player
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Got an offer this morning of Damien Harris (has had a few nice games as of late) and Hardman for Sutton. Am I nuts for considering this in a PPR dynasty? Seems both Harris and Hardman are trending up right? And isn't Watkins contract only for this year?
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Lots of good discussion on young WRs in this thread! How do you guys start to determine the trading point for your aging (28+) WRs? I've been fortunate to collect a good group (Hopkins, M Thomas, and Tyreek) along with a few younger guys like Dionte. At some point the younger guys will surpass the older guys and I'm wondering what your strateg(ies) might be.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
az_prof
Footballguy
Higgins production is comparable to AJ Green's rookie year and he has a young, better QB to grow with. I don't know what the 2021 rookie class looks like but I can't imagine trading Higgins for anything less than a 1.1 or 1.2, assuming that I needed a RB and assuming that there was a no miss RB likely in those spots. D. Harris has little dynasty interest for me.
Basically, I don't see why one would want to trade Higgins now. He is young (21), great QB, and has already become a reliable WR2. He clearly has a high ceiling and no reason to think he can't become a WR1. What more are you hoping to get in a 2021 pick?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
We still don't believe in Ronald Jones, right?
Pretty sure I can get the 2.1-ish for him. That's about as high as can be expected, I think.
Or is he a hold?
Pretty sure I can get the 2.1-ish for him. That's about as high as can be expected, I think.
Or is he a hold?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I like “buying years,” adding to an established player for a comparable but younger player. I’d add to Thomas or Adams for DK or AJ, for example. A late first is a no-brained here, IMO.
If that’s not possible, I don’t mind letting an aging stud retire on my roster if I’m competing. I’ll take what Julio can give me for the next 2-3 years over what my league-mates will pay for him.
Things change if I’m rebuilding, but I don’t know that I have a set strategy there. I just try to move current value for future value.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
RC94
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
My first instinct was to say no because Sutton is worth more than those two players.
But I decided to look up Hardmans numbers and I do think you are correct that Watkins may not be with KC after this season.
I still wouldn't do it. I think Sutton is more valuable than what you are being offered.
According to this ADP (which the more I look at the less I trust) Sutton is 56 overall Hardman is 89 overall Harris is 130 overall.
eta - I do think Sutton may be ranked too high by this ADP as I think Juedy will perform better than him for fantasy, but he is still a good player.
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am usually acquiring these aging but proven WR when they reach 28 because I can get them for below their actual value from owners focused on exit strategy and prioritizing age over points.
I tend to roster a lot of WR though. So there is always someone else waiting in the wings if one of my guys does fade out.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am not sure?
I saw that big run he made recently several times. He is running really hard but the tackling was pretty bad too.
I sort of feel similarly about Jones and I do DeVantae Parker, just not to as much of an extreme. A player I did like from charting him in college but who I made some irrational excuses for as well in regards to his lack of passing production. I think we have learned since then that there were flaws in his abilities as a receiver as part of the reason for that.
I was reading Pewter report and so on almost every day back then and nary a peep about Jones from beat writers leading into his rookie season. Can't say I have seen such a dearth of rookie fluff pieces as I did with Ronald Jones.
He has rejuvenated his career this year though and currently has the 3rd most rushing yards. and he is 9th in rushing yards per game.
With the lack of RB putting up any useful numbers this year I would think you could do better than that in return for him, but the stink eye on him is pretty universal I think, so maybe not.
This is the kind of situation I want to buy actually because it could turn out being a bargain. So for you I guess that means he is a hold.
I do kind of feel like Brady has created such a threat to opposing defenses that Jones is benefiting from and I wonder what happens to that if Brady isn't there next season. but whatever it is he is playing a lot better this year and will be going into a contract year in 2021.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I think its about 99% certain Brady plays next year unless he has a career ending injury.
