Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Best ball - sky's the limit for Aiyuk. Wished more every week that I'd been able to draft him last year.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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MAC_32
Footballguy
In this class? Not likely. Not right now anyway. If I'm wrong about a few of these prospects I'll re-assess, but that wouldn't be known for 3 months.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Mixon still has stupid high value in some leagues...like mine. The range is crazyIf the Bengals addresses their o-line (and you think they would to protect Burrow) I am starting to think Mixon might be one of the best buy lows at the RB position. I also agree Gibson has the most upside from that list
Zyphros
Footballguy
You kind of answered your own question no? Yeah I prefer the youth, and pass catcher. Henry has proven to be an outlier so he's definitely more productive than some of these, I'm just unwilling to roster him or draft him unless the price is non-top15'ish.
My rankings are based on startups if that helps, and I don't like closing my window so early on a guy like Henry because he's productive, how long will that last, he's already at peak value, I'd rather get a younger guy who can get there with value spikes than a guy who's maxed out.
So no I don't view Henry as a top20'ish dynasty RB
ffmail4me
Footballguy
You got Gibson WAY too low IMO. Read what his coaches said about him...they think he can be the CMC of their offense. He's just learning the position and is so explosive.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I wish I could find the article, but based on some metric they said Aiyuk and Jefferson had the best seasons at WR in 2020. I'm trying to see if I can find it to post the link...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
@ZWK Do you know what Amari Cooper would have to do to match Todd Gurley in career VBD in your model, roughly? Or how likely that is to happen? I know it's a tired debate, but I'm looking for examples of RB/WR combinations from the same class, who both hit, with the WR having - or projected to have - an extra 4+ years. Please feel free to change the names, if you have a better example. Maybe Hopkins/Bell? but Bell's holdout really cost his owners.
I stumbled across your 2019 VBD sheet on Twitter and saw that McCaffrey's season was >50% more valuable than Michael Thomas' (who broke the record for rec), whose season was ~65% more valuable than the next WR (Godwin).
And my intuition tells me these monster RB seasons are worth more than their raw VBD would indicate, that the more concentrated the VBD is, the more valuable it is. (I could be wrong though.) I think many will view the extra years that Cooper/Hopkins will provide over Gurley/Bell as a win, and model accordingly. I'm not sure we should.
Maybe your generic rookie values already answer for this?
This ending up being a lot more than I intended it to be. No problem at all if you don't get to it. TIA either way.
I stumbled across your 2019 VBD sheet on Twitter and saw that McCaffrey's season was >50% more valuable than Michael Thomas' (who broke the record for rec), whose season was ~65% more valuable than the next WR (Godwin).
And my intuition tells me these monster RB seasons are worth more than their raw VBD would indicate, that the more concentrated the VBD is, the more valuable it is. (I could be wrong though.) I think many will view the extra years that Cooper/Hopkins will provide over Gurley/Bell as a win, and model accordingly. I'm not sure we should.
Maybe your generic rookie values already answer for this?
This ending up being a lot more than I intended it to be. No problem at all if you don't get to it. TIA either way.
It only takes the owner to believe to make his value unattainable and usually the owner has him because he believes in him. Or the owner is frustrated and ready to sell cheap. You must have the former.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I'm a lot more open minded to Aiyuk now than I was a couple months ago, but I wouldn't take anything out of what Deebo did this year. His 2020 went comparably to those before him that got a jones in June.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
Me, personally - I draft rookies for year 2 and beyond. So while I drafted Viska in round 2 I don't think I'd trade him for a mid 1 right now. Is that his value? Yeah, probably. But if I perpetually trade players going into year 2 for rookies then I'm never competing. I would consider moving him for a veteran that has rookie round 1 value, but I suspect the market's not there right now. Maybe I'm wrong about that though.
MAC_32
Footballguy
He returned to action before it was healed then the injury merry go round took over. I keep telling myself one of these years NFL teams will smarten up when it comes to recovery from a June jones fracture and they keep proving me wrong.
If somebody offered me mid firsts for my Laviska shares I’d snap accept and sleep like a baby. Trading meh 2nds for firsts is how teams become great
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Yeah, I'd rather go into year one of Jaylen Waddle than year two of Shenault.
And I'd REALLY rather go into year two of Waddle than year three of Shenault.
You don't always trade second year players for rookies but you do when the rookies are better players.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I did not consider him a meh 2nd when I drafted him. My WR board last year ended up Lamb-Reagor-Higgins-Viska-Jefferson (oops)-Jeudy. I considered them plus the top 5 RB + Burrow 1st round caliber, but expected to be able to get one/some of these WR's in round 2 (I did - one Viska, 2x Higgins). If Viska's rate elevates to round 1 over the next few months then the market will then just agree with where I was 8 months ago.
Agreed on all fronts. Last year consensus bought the Laviska lottery ticket for a 2nd and it wasn't a hit like a Claypool in that range. To be able to now trade the scratched lottery ticket for a better lottery ticket is robbery.
Just think of if we were to redraft last year's class today. The optimist would say Laviska is the 7th best WR with Jefferson, Lamb, Jeudy, Aiyuk, Higgins, Claypool ahead of him. Then there are Reagor, Ruggs, Pittman, Mims, etc that fall into a similar range of Laviska. Then we have the top 5 RBs, Gibson, Dillon (who I want over Laviska), Burrow, Herbert, etc.
If we redrafted last year's rookie class today, Laviska is roughly the 16th-18th best? So if today you can trade him for 1.06 you slam accept
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't buy rookies for what they do year one. If they develop quickly and justify elevating over a starter, great; isn't the expectation though. I buy them for what I think they can do year two and beyond.
Claypool v Viska may be an interesting market to monitor this offseason though. The former's offense is trending down and the latter up, but with wildly different expectations of their FO/coaching.
If you could trade your 2nd every year for somebody's first next year into perpetuity, would you do it?
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't approach my decision making with a binary mindset. I traded into the 2020 and 2021 drafts because I think they are relatively better crops than we've had over most of the last several years. I thought Viska was in the upper half of last year's crop and based on his play on a terrible team I'm optimistic he will justify it this season on a better one.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
I wrote it to @Just Win Baby yesterday. I don't do groupthink. I appreciate other informed opinions that veer from the consensus too. It's an opportunity for me to re-assess my own opinion.
And I'm not sure I value the mid 1's this year more than Viska. It's close enough for me right now that I wouldn't consider such a move, but I would be receptive to re-evaluating based on how the draft unfolds. Both as far as prospects go, but also my current lineup. My willingness to trade Viska decreases if he's penciled into my week 1 lineup once on the other side of the draft. I don't think it's likely looking at my team, but it's in the range of potential outcomes.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I scanned that orphan list of teams in FFPC a few days ago (I've never bought one as of yet) and saw a ton of Zeke teams for sales so no surprise.
I can't recall the previous thread on Zeke he was discussed but obviously based on were I listed him here I got concerns. I'd add on more thought I think I'd put him on a tier by himself with Aaron Jones under him, but I still lower then most.
My concerns center on the obvious. I'm a believer that wear and tear is real and it's very real with combined with increasing age. And with Zeke it's not just an idea, it's combining that with what I saw and some stats that back it. Stuff like just 3 carries over 20 yards. Fact his only two games he went over 100 came when he did not play the week before(which could be argued allowed his injuries to improve).
Some will chalk it up to Dak being out and injuries impacting OL. I'll just add I can recall after week 3 of talking with a friend of mine about performance of top picks, how CMC, Barkley and Michael Thomas teams were hurting and I distinctly recall both of us saying that Zeke is performing well for fantasy and if you picked him you in top 3 you got no qualms about it right now but neither of us thought he looked very good. Looked sluggish and not in optimal shape to me. As Dak would later go down, OL issues cropped up and Zeke dealt with some injuries I just recall him being more of a compiler early in the year when those were not issues.
So I got those concerns. I looked up a few RB's career past similar age/usage as Elliot and some went on to have 2-3 big time seasons. LT being one. That seemed to generally be the max.
To me I look at it as you got a lot of excuses being made for Zeke. No Dak, OL, his injuries. Some or all of those excuses might have some level of validity. I absolutely think Zeke could rededicate himself to being in great shape and put forth a big time 2-3 seasons. But again that's pretty much the best case scenario.
So in summary for me I'd go with a younger or at worse RB with less wear and tear over him instead of hoping the trifecta of excuses made for his poor showing prove to be valid. I would for sure be trying to move him right now instead of holding on hoping he rebounds especially when he seems to remain in high regard as evidenced by how high he continues to be ranked.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Thanks. Yeah basically as I might have guessed. Can't say I disagree too much. There were other assets that enticed me to buy two of these orphans that have Zeke. I think he is sort of a bonus. I am trying and will continue to try and sell him. But it is going to be a narrow window between getting a trade price I like and the (potential) positive impact of keeping him in my boxscore. If there is a sweet spot it would probably be after a couple good early games. Maybe same story with Michael Thomas. Or maybe if Dak rehab reports are positive then maybe Zeke starts creeping back up in ADP and trade value before week 1. Not much of a market for him for all the reasons you mentioned. Age/mileage.
For reference one orphan is a $500 FFPC Superflex I bought for $299 and has Josh Allen, Big Ben, Robinson, Zeke, Moss, David Johnson, Drake, Metcalf, Deebo, Parker, Hamler, Crowder, Kelce, Higbee and no real draft capital. It needs help but I think this is a strong team to build around and can compete now. Would love to move Zeke for any kind of youth and value.
The other Zeke orphan is a $250 standard FFPC that I bought for $55. Lamar, Zeke, Hunt, Fournette, Keenan Allen, AROB, Antonio Brown, Waller and Tonyan. It also has Rodgers and Mayfield. I may try to ship all those QBs for trade value and find another one later. This team is old and need a ton of help. Not a lot of draft capital. But I think I can compete with it.
I bought a couple other orphans as well. $250 standards for $39 (will take a small miracle) and $55 (CMC, Josh Allen, Andrews, many other decent pieces). Grabbed a different $500 SF for $200 (pretty competitive team again) and one more $250 SF for $69 (It was listed at 175 then 150 then 120 then 69 and I pulled the trigger - has CMC, Josh Allen, M Thomas, K Allen, Pittman, and some depth pieces). All in all I got $1500 in 2021 orphan buyins for the price of $741. Now that my gigantic FFPC style leagues disbanded and I am no longer commissioner, I'm grabbing a few more dynasties. That's the last of my orphan buying, though. I want to do 2 startups this year. This will all still be cutting back from 2020!!
Zyphros
Footballguy
To add on to the Josh Jacobs debate, what about Miles Sanders? I view him higher than most it seems, but I bet people are all over the map with him. Some might completely fade, some would buy low, some would happily sell for anything. How are people viewing him long term?
I still believe he's a long term RB1.
I still believe he's a long term RB1.
Fair enough. I get feeling strongly about a player and if you think Laviska's that guy, then go for it. Me myself, as an owner who's not as high as you, would sell Laviska to you in the 1.12ish range. You should make offers all around your leagues with somebody in that range and they might just bite..
rockaction
Footballguy
I love Sanders. I'd put him right up there, ahead of Jacobs, alongside Gibson. I didn't do the rank ordering, but those two would be in the top tier out of those seven or eight.
northern exposure
Footballguy
What is Ronald Jones value in terms of 2021 rookie pick(s)? 12 tm non-ppr dynasty league. League is moving from being able to start 1RB (multiple flex spots) to mandatory start 2 RB in 2021.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I would guess most owners who have Jones wouldn't move him for less than a late 1st. I know I wouldn't from the few leagues I own him.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I have him on a non-ppr roster and would like to find someone that likes him better than I do.
In another league I traded him for what ended up being the 1.1 and am glad for it.
While that’s probably true, I doubt you’ll find too many suitors wanting to give up a 1st for him.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
before Fournette's late season push I'd say there probably was a window you could have found a buyer for a 1st. Now, probably not.
Zyphros
Footballguy
My 1.01 is Javonte Williams, I would trade him for Miles Sanders. But maybe I shouldn't? The problem I find is I'd rather have the 1.01 than Miles because the pick could be anyone and it'll increase in value rather easily. Put the name on it and it immediately loses value.
Non-PPR might be the distinction here though. Not that Sanders was catching a ton of passes, but it looked like they were using him more in that kind of role. I can only hope that continues with the new Eagles staff.
Boone22
Footballguy
Why is this? Do you expect Fournette to be back in Tampa next year?
As an owner of Jones, the only way I would trade him for a late first was if I was desperate for WR or TE help and someone I liked in the rookie draft fell further then expected.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
And then just like that Jacobs gets arrested for DUI and I wake up to an offer of his Jacobs for my Zeke. I saw the news blurb and then reconfirmed that yes, Jacobs will only be turning 23 a couple weeks from now, and then ran to my accept button.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Like we hadn't beat the Jacobs horse to death enough yet.
ZWK
Footballguy
Gurley has been worth 2.4x as much as Cooper. Gurley's best season (2017) was worth almost as much as Cooper's whole career so far. If Gurley is through and Cooper keeps doing what he's been doing for another 8 or 9 years then he'll catch up.Concept Coop said:
Bell has been worth 1.1x as much as Hopkins so far. If next season is like this season then Hopkins will move ahead of him.
Julio Jones has been worth 2.3x as much as Mark Ingram. AJ Green has been worth 1.5x as much as Ingram.
All of these numbers probably place a little too much value on longevity vs peak, because they're just cumulative career totals without any discounting or cost for using a roster spot.
My generic rookie values are based on these numbers so they should reflect these RB vs. WR differences.
northern exposure
Footballguy
This scenario happened 3-4 weeks ago? Because the Jacobs arrest happened on Jan. 4th and he was charged with failure to exercise due care and not DUI on Jan. 11th.barackdhouse said:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
I'm in the opposite camp. I think this signals a move to the running game for Detroit. Goff doesn't have to be great. The wrs don't have to be great. Swift with a reasonable offseason, training camp and preseason is going to be special. He flashed that talent this season with an abbreviated intro to the NFL. I see 1400 total yards as an achieveable target.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Like last year, I'm holding through the draft. Once the draft came and went last year then the market shifted towards Vaughn I kept holding. I would have sold him in-season, but then I ended up needing him (he was either my 3 or 4 going into the season)...which is why the same thing will probably happen this season.northern exposure said:
MAC_32
Footballguy
His ceiling is capped in his age 22 season, but I would not suppress his value much v a month ago. We'll see what the market says, but if it over corrects I'll consider sending an offer for him.
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