Look at last years guys who were going in the first round of all or a lot of startups, or early 2nd: Jonathan Taylor, Swift, Javonte Williams, Najee Harris, Mixon, Cook, Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook......
Funny enough last year the only guy remotely worth it was CMC.
This isn’t entirely accurate. Hall has held his value remarkably well , despite tearing his ACL.
Jonathan Taylor still commands decent return in trade, but the collapse of INDY as a rudderless ship devoid of competence at QB has more to do with his situation/value than anything he did or didn’t do.
Context is different for all of these players, and some have delivered more return than others.
Just looking cause as I sit right now I have pick 3 in a startup. If JJ and Chase go, do I take Bijan? Heck he might go top 2 anyway, but if not, then what?
To continue my thought from my last sentence, if Joe Burrow tore his labrum today, where would you pick Chase tomorrow in a start-up?
Context matters.
Bijan’s context also matters. He’s a more dynamic prospect than we’ve seen in years. Comparing him to some of the RBs taken last year or 2 years ago in the 1st or 2nd round isn’t a like comparison because Hall, Walker, Cook, Mixon & Najee aren’t Bijan Robinson.
I feel like it’s an easy call to take Bijan in the 1st round of a start-up to gamble on the upside. If he really is that game-breaking generational talent at RB who’ll command ~30% of the falcons offense, he’s going to be a league-winner for years. And moreover, he’ll be an incredibly valuable commodity for trading purposes.
And he’d potentially do it at a volatile position, giving a team a rare advantage at the position over most of the other teams.
Where there’s risk, there’s also reward.
Such a volatile position to take with such a valuable pick.
Ideally I want to trade down, but almost any trade down from a top pick in a startup won't bring in the haul that player would fetch in an existing league.
This part is true - and I won’t fault you if you want to deal out of a top 3 start-up pick. That’s a strategic decision. But you’re also correct that value is higher in an existing league, so it would seem to make sense to take Bijan in that scenario, and then deal him down the road a spell when your league becomes “existing”.
Trading down is just going to net you a less valuable asset with lower ceiling, and less trade value. That’s no way to start a team, IMO.
I’d be taking Bijan, assuming JJ -> Chase go 1-2. Maybe you’ll get lucky & Chase falls to 3. It’s possible. Good luck.