Evaluating A Team's Offensive Line (1 Viewer)

[zamboni]

I hear a lot of folks (and analysts) confidently talk about how a team's offensive line is good or bad.

But I'm wondering if it's merely based off PFF grades or just conjecture (which may not be accurate) from beat writers. Speaking only for myself, I'm no film expert and I'm obviously not at the practices.

At the end of the day, how do you go about evaluating a team's OL, or is it just a leap of faith?

 

[Scoresman]

It's something I struggle with when doing my projections. OL performance is massively important to so many things and it ends up being tough to predict.

I end up taking an average of a number of pre-season rankings, and go from there. I also look at end of last season rankings combined with offseason moves as a sanity check.

 

[Anarchy99]

I'd evaluate the Patriots offensive line . . . if they had one.

 

[zamboni]

It's something I struggle with when doing my projections. OL performance is massively important to so many things and it ends up being tough to predict.

I end up taking an average of a number of pre-season rankings, and go from there. I also look at end of last season rankings combined with offseason moves as a sanity check.

Thanks - that's a fair way of looking at it. But yeah, so much of our fantasy players' production is driven by the OL, and it's tough to predict - which is why I posed the question. So much has to do with coaching, scheme, talent, etc., that are nearly impossible to predict unless you regularly watch these guys in the trenches. And even then you have to know what you're looking at.

 

[Ray_T]

It's something I struggle with when doing my projections. OL performance is massively important to so many things and it ends up being tough to predict.

I end up taking an average of a number of pre-season rankings, and go from there. I also look at end of last season rankings combined with offseason moves as a sanity check.

This is a big deal for me.

lots of people look at QB and RB metrics but they dont look at the reason behind the metrics. O line analysis plugs that hole (largely)

When I see a RB (lets say mixon for example) Lots of people are down on him because of his declining metrics in recent years. but when you look at his line performance the last year or two and it has NOT been good at all. This tells me that part of the problem with some of the metrics is actually in the line play. Hes now moved to a team with a better Line. While this is not a guarantee he performs better, I'd say the odds of a better performance are generally good. Certainly better than if he stayed where he was.

ditto for passing. you look at a QB who played behind a bad line (or a line that had a lot of injuries) when someone gets in the face of the QB, the odds of an INT go up. Certainly this affects low to mid range QB more than the elite but its a pretty solid correlation. So a QB playing behind a leaky line having a bad year will quite often take a lot of the blame, but the true reason for the bad year is likely that bad line.

Most QB at the NFL level will peform at least adequately if given sufficient time to work through their progressions. the key is giving that QB the time that they need.

it all begins and ends with the line.

 

[zamboni]

When I see a RB (lets say mixon for example) Lots of people are down on him because of his declining metrics in recent years. but when you look at his line performance the last year or two and it has NOT been good at all.

What metrics are you using for line performance?

 

[Uruk-Hai]

For an extreme example, let's look at the Ravens. In the last 6 months, they have lost both starting Gs and the RT. One of the Gs was JAG, but the other two linemen were Pro Bowl level players at some point in their careers; but, both are long in the tooth and battled injuries all of 2023. The only remaining starters from last season are the LT (who is aging and always hurt) and their young Pro Bowl C (who is hurt now). In addition, the Ravens have lost their much-respected OL coach, who fell ill and is away indefinitely - they just hired another OL coach who has to cram for the test.

Here is their projected starting OL:

T: Stanley - the aforementioned injury-waiting-to-happen
T: Rosenburg - a 2nd Round Rookie
G: Vorhees - drafted in the 7th in the 2023 draft because he would have to redshirt last season, but many said would have been a Day Two pick if healthy
G: Faale - drafted by Baltimore to be a T and got moved to G
C: Linderbaum - very good and also hurt right now

Backing them up are Mekari (who can play any position well, which is why he's not a projected starter), Cleveland (a former 3rd RD pick who hasn't been able to take over a position despite many chances - he's been playing C this preseason), and some other guys.

Everyone I just listed was drafted/developed by Baltimore, who typically has one of the NFL's better OL. And now their OL coach is out.

How the hell do you evaluate a situation like that?

 

[BobbyLayne]

If I’ve learned nothing elde about OL play, It’s not merely the sum of the parts. Unit cohesion & communication doesn’t get PFF grades.

Health is massive, availability is the best ability. Last season for Detroit, including the playoffs:

• LT Decker 18
• LG Jackson 14
• C Ragnow 18
• RG Vaiti/GG 3/13
• RT Sewell 20

Note - I list 2 players at RG bc Vati (fused spine) was the starter (3 GS) but after he got hurt it was Graham Glasgow. When Ragnow was out, GG had 2 GS at C; he had 3 GS at LG and 13 GS at R - 18 GS at 3 POS.

When one of Awosika (3), Sorsdal (3), Nelson (2), or Skipper (1) started - one game had two starters missing - the team went 3-5. One of those games was the NFCCG.

In the 12 games in which Detroit had 5 starting OL, the team went 11-1. The only loss was at Dallas Week 17….anyone remember how that one ended.

Unit cohesion is everything. Often that’s a function of having a great OL coach.

The other unseen & unheard aspect is who is calling the protection scheme & blocking adjustments at the LOS. Sometimes it’s the QB - Stafford always did in Detroit, I think he does in L.A.

For many teams it’s the center. Philadelphia - formerly Jason Kelce l Kansas City - Creed Humphrey l Detroit - Frank Rafnow. Probably not a coincidence the top 3 C in the NFL the last few years all lifted that burden from the quarterback.


edit typo

 

[Ray_T]

When I see a RB (lets say mixon for example) Lots of people are down on him because of his declining metrics in recent years. but when you look at his line performance the last year or two and it has NOT been good at all.

What metrics are you using for line performance?

generally I look at PFF rankings. but I also use the eye test when I watch games. if I see the QB is consistently getting pressure from the left side I look to see who is there. that sort of thing. but I have found PFF has one of the better ratings for O lines out there that are relatively easy to access.

 

[zamboni]

Unit cohesion is everything. Often that’s a function of having a great OL coach.

Bingo.

I just bristle when I hear fantasy pundits think that an RB or QB is going to do well, or struggle, because the OL is good/bad. I just find it to be vacuous analysis because no one knows. As you say, cohesion is something that just can't be measured.

Basically I'm convincing myself that it remains mainly a crapshoot/leap of faith.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Basically I'm convincing myself that it remains mainly a crapshoot/leap of faith.

If everyone on every line could stay healthy it sure would be easier to figure out. But keeping 5 guys healthy all year is a tall order so measuring depth is almost as important as the starting unit. And as mentioned the OL coach is also huge.

 

[zamboni]

Basically I'm convincing myself that it remains mainly a crapshoot/leap of faith.

If everyone on every line could stay healthy it sure would be easier to figure out. But keeping 5 guys healthy all year is a tall order so measuring depth is almost as important as the starting unit. And as mentioned the OL coach is also huge.

No question. Even if an entire OL stayed healthy though, it's hard to project how effective 5 big sides of beef are going to be in protecting a QB or generate gaping holes for an RB.

 

[Biabreakable]

Unit cohesion is everything. Often that’s a function of having a great OL coach.

Bingo.

I just bristle when I hear fantasy pundits think that an RB or QB is going to do well, or struggle, because the OL is good/bad. I just find it to be vacuous analysis because no one knows. As you say, cohesion is something that just can't be measured.

Basically I'm convincing myself that it remains mainly a crapshoot/leap of faith.

Good topic and I agree it's difficult to find data for offensive linemen that is actionable in a scale that is aligned with players gaining yards, TD and so on.

If anyone finds a way to do that? It would totally change fantasy football.

I think football outsiders (and others that follow them ) may be on the right track measuring things like yards before contact as a way of comparing offensive line performance. But what would be the formula to convert that into predictive data?

I do not know. I would love to know.

As far as continuity of the offensive line I know Matt Bitonti thinks that is important and incorporates that into his offensive line rankings.

I have no doubt that offensive line play has a huge impact on overall team performance. I just don't know how to measure that properly.

Pff grades is information. That's better than nothing. But how does one convert that data into something useful for fantasy football?

I have no doubt offensive line performance matters. I don't know by how much or how to use data about offensive lines for more than tie breakers between similarly projected players.

As far as the Vikings offensive line they have been trying to find someone since Joe Berger retired in 2018 to be competent at either guard or center but failed. They do have some good tackles but the inside offensive line continues to be bad.

3rd round pick Ed Ingram is looking to be the next failed attempt to improve their inside offensive line play.
https://vikingsterritory.com/2024/news/opinion/what-happened-to-ed-ingram

 

[Ray_T]

Unit cohesion is everything. Often that’s a function of having a great OL coach.

Bingo.

I just bristle when I hear fantasy pundits think that an RB or QB is going to do well, or struggle, because the OL is good/bad. I just find it to be vacuous analysis because no one knows. As you say, cohesion is something that just can't be measured.

Basically I'm convincing myself that it remains mainly a crapshoot/leap of faith.

Good topic and I agree it's difficult to find data for offensive linemen that is actionable in a scale that is aligned with players gaining yards, TD and so on.

If anyone finds a way to do that? It would totally change fantasy football.

I think football outsiders (and others that follow them ) may be on the right track measuring things like yards before contact as a way of comparing offensive line performance. But what would be the formula to convert that into predictive data?

I do not know. I would love to know.

As far as continuity of the offensive line I know Matt Bitonti thinks that is important and incorporates that into his offensive line rankings.

I have no doubt that offensive line play has a huge impact on overall team performance. I just don't know how to measure that properly.

Pff grades is information. That's better than nothing. But how does one convert that data into something useful for fantasy football?

I have no doubt offensive line performance matters. I don't know by how much or how to use data about offensive lines for more than tie breakers between similarly projected players.

As far as the Vikings offensive line they have been trying to find someone since Joe Berger retired in 2018 to be competent at either guard or center but failed. They do have some good tackles but the inside offensive line continues to be bad.

3rd round pick Ed Ingram is looking to be the next failed attempt to improve their inside offensive line play.
https://vikingsterritory.com/2024/news/opinion/what-happened-to-ed-ingram

well, what I like about PFF is they grade the players, but they grade the line as a whole as well. its not bad. probably the main reason I look at PFF info. its likely the most useful thing they do as far as my analysis goes.

 

[LawFitz]

So much has to do with coaching, scheme, talent,

And health!

But yeah, coaching and scheme, and

Overall team culture/momentum and the play of complimentary units (QB/RB) make predicting OL super tough.

Like others, I rely on the preseason rankings of "experts" for OL calls, but in reality, just as experts miss on individual players, they most certainly do the same every year for OL units.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Unit cohesion is everything. Often that’s a function of having a great OL coach.

Bingo.

I just bristle when I hear fantasy pundits think that an RB or QB is going to do well, or struggle, because the OL is good/bad. I just find it to be vacuous analysis because no one knows. As you say, cohesion is something that just can't be measured.

Basically I'm convincing myself that it remains mainly a crapshoot/leap of faith.

To a certain extent, this is FF in a nutshell. Philly started 10-1, by years end they were playing like poo, especially on defense. Miami started out like the greatest show ever, limped home. No one saw Stroud or Nacua or Kyren coming last year. Cleveland went from the 22nd defense to 1st. Nobody knew anything about Brandon Aubrey, he outscored K2 by a full point a game. LaPorta, Mostert, Achane, Paceco all massively outperformed their ADP. Not because it was an unusual year - that kind of stuff happens every year. We think we know who the good teams and bad teams are, but we'll be wrong on 40% of them.

I hear people talking about strength of schedule and saying "I'm not drafting Player X bc he has a tough playoff schedule." Maybe he will, but I guarantee you don't know that on August 22nd.

 

[zamboni]

Patron saint of this topic: just learning about offensive lines and having some food