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Fanduel Week 1 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JShare87
- Start date
karmarooster
Footballguy
Yeah the majority of games are Sunday-Monday, you have to sign up for them before 1pm Sunday. Last night was just the appetizer. Hyde is 6200.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Sunday only and 1pm only games are up now for 50/50s. You can also create your own for H2H.
(HULK)
(Smash)
zoonation
Footballguy
(HULK)
(Smash)
This is a lineup for a h2h or 50/50 right? Its not bad. Shares some of the guys with my 2 lineups (McCoy/Ball/Sanders).
(HULK)
(Smash)
Because Shaun Hill is dirt cheap. He gets 15 points and it's the equivalent of having had Lynch on your roster last night. Pretty easy to expect 15 points vs the crummy Minn D imo.
Other cheap QBs, same thing goes. I feel like they're somewhat easier to predict based upon matchup than WRs and TEs.
To add to what Hulk said, I'm typically looking for around $350-400 per point from the QB spot. If I can get that out of a cheaper QB, which is a more predictable position due to opportunities per game, I'm all over it b/c it allows me to spend more money on very volatile positions, like TE and WR.
Highly recommend the How to Optimize Fanduel Lineups article that Buzzard put out on the 26th of August. Goes in depth as to the thinking behind what you need from each position (think $ per point) and strategies for both GPP, H2H and 50/50 games.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=14Buzzard_Fanduel_Lineup_Optimization
For me, I'm pretty much in line with his thoughts at QB -- cheap in 50/50 and H2H and best Stud value + stack in GPP.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Yeah, I'm more likely to pay for a better one to get an ideal stack in a GPP, however I used Hill with no stack in GPPs this week. He's just so cheap. I can't believe he isn't on every single roster atm
Yeah, even knowing he was going to be on a TON of rosters, I couldn't help myself. 12.5 points is $400 / point. Just too good to pass up knowing I can hopefully make a difference with contrarian picks elsewhere.
Vegas has STL at -4.5 and the O/U is 43.5 last time I looked (don't quote me on that). They're basically predicting a 24 - 19.5 kinda game. Even giving 2 TDs to the running game, Hill factors into the equation with a TD ... although the Vikes are likely to stack the box forcing a pass. Dodds has him at 1.4 TDs, which seems pretty accurate, giving a slight edge to the ground game.
4 total scoring drives should give you somewhere around 260 yards (assuming Austin keeps them at a healthy 35 yard line start). I think it's safe to assume another 60-100 yards on all other drives puts them safely over 300 total yards. Last year the rams had 65% of their yards in the passing game...new team, new numbers (which makes early season predictions so hard), but I think you can assume Hill ends up somewhere between 175-250 passing the ball.
175 and 1 TD gives you 11 points -- add a pick and you're still stiting at 10 pts, or $500 / point. Not good, but not terrible considering it was such a small % of your money and you're stacked in other areas.
250 and 2 TDs gives you 18 which is $277 a point. A huge advantage at QB and stacked at WR/TE. For example, Manning would have to score 36+ points this week to go $277 / point, then you're still sitting at a disadvantage at WR/TE vs my squad due to the rise in volatility the lower you go down the list at those positions.
Sorry, long post, but it gives you an idea of my thought process on why Hill was a good choice for the week.
To take it one step further, what does Vegas think of the game and what are predictions for Hill. Dodds is predicting 16-17 points for Hill, giving us a reasonable margin for error getting to that 12-14 point range where we are at least keeping ourselves in the game.
Vegas has STL at -4.5 and the O/U is 43.5 last time I looked (don't quote me on that). They're basically predicting a 24 - 19.5 kinda game. Even giving 2 TDs to the running game, Hill factors into the equation with a TD ... although the Vikes are likely to stack the box forcing a pass. Dodds has him at 1.4 TDs, which seems pretty accurate, giving a slight edge to the ground game.
4 total scoring drives should give you somewhere around 260 yards (assuming Austin keeps them at a healthy 35 yard line start). I think it's safe to assume another 60-100 yards on all other drives puts them safely over 300 total yards. Last year the rams had 65% of their yards in the passing game...new team, new numbers (which makes early season predictions so hard), but I think you can assume Hill ends up somewhere between 175-250 passing the ball.
175 and 1 TD gives you 11 points -- add a pick and you're still stiting at 10 pts, or $500 / point. Not good, but not terrible considering it was such a small % of your money and you're stacked in other areas.
250 and 2 TDs gives you 18 which is $277 a point. A huge advantage at QB and stacked at WR/TE. For example, Manning would have to score 36+ points this week to go $277 / point, then you're still sitting at a disadvantage at WR/TE vs my squad due to the rise in volatility the lower you go down the list at those positions.
Sorry, long post, but it gives you an idea of my thought process on why Hill was a good choice for the week.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
Could I ask someone with experience to spend 5 mins explaining this to me. I keep seeing this talked about here and the ads on Sirius NFL.
-This is a weekly pool I enter (Betting amounts vary?) and winners are paid out weekly? Size of pools vary?
-Is it a salary cap format like the $35k one for FBguys?
-If I join, do I get some kind of FBG's bonus?
What else do I need to know before starting this?
It seems like easy money...no?
-This is a weekly pool I enter (Betting amounts vary?) and winners are paid out weekly? Size of pools vary?
-Is it a salary cap format like the $35k one for FBguys?
-If I join, do I get some kind of FBG's bonus?
What else do I need to know before starting this?
It seems like easy money...no?
dancingbones
Footballguy
Got stuck with Ellington in all of my Thurs lineups.
Only $20 riding on it, but not the optimal way to start the season!
Only $20 riding on it, but not the optimal way to start the season!
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Played several small-stakes tournies... and used some combination of three ideas...the first two not necessarily using high-variance players, but rather high-variance situations.
--Ladarius Green's role is possibly being badly underestimated
--The Lions beat the hell out of the Giants (who might be dreadful this year)
--Stud-loaded teams with Hill + cheap D + cheap K
Basically took a shot on a couple of Week 1 unknowns where I had a hunch.
--Ladarius Green's role is possibly being badly underestimated
--The Lions beat the hell out of the Giants (who might be dreadful this year)
--Stud-loaded teams with Hill + cheap D + cheap K
Basically took a shot on a couple of Week 1 unknowns where I had a hunch.
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(HULK)
(Smash)
-Not a pool. There are many seperate games going. Head to head matchups, leagues (from 3 to 10 teams), 50/50 leagues (usually 10 to 50 teams, top 1/2 win), and GPP (garunteed prize pools, basically big contests where the top 5-10% win large sums).
-Yes, salary cap format, prices change each week.
-Not sure if FBGs offers the 1st timer bonus anymore. Probably. You get up to $200 matched on your initial deposit, but it credits to your account slowly, not fully vesting until you've played enough money.
(HULK)
(Smash)
2 & 3 intersect in a bunch of my lineups. Freese in 1/2 my lineups and Detroit D in all of mine. They're going to shred Eli imo.
Man, I got stuck facing him in a bunch of leagues. Hopefully I made the right picks elsewhere. Still have a few ellington picks I'm stuck with which won't help.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Romo
Ball
Pierce
Fitzgerald
Sanders
Colston
Graham
Parkey
Patriots
Ball
Pierce
Fitzgerald
Sanders
Colston
Graham
Parkey
Patriots
karmarooster
Footballguy
I think the beneficiary of Ellington missing time is probably Palmer (and Floyd and Fitz) rather than Dwyer.
Agree generally but Dwyer will get a lot more touches than he would of. Lack of talent makes me shy away from picking him even at his very low price. May throw him in there once or twice but so far not loving what those savings do for me.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Potentially. I'm FBG_Hulk over there, should be easy enough to find me. I'm done with bets for the week though, but you could easily join a 50/50 or GPP I'm in.
karmarooster
Footballguy
You can choose who you want to face in H2H games. Best option for testing it out a week - use the bookmarklet app on the previous page and cherry pick a handful of $1 head to head matchups against people with little or no experience. Don't join a matchup against someone with a thousand wins. My general rule of thumb is for anyone with less than 100 NFL wins. I also tend to avoid people with few or no NFL wins if they have 5,000 NBA or MLB wins, figuring that they are at least competent.
Minimum amount you could reasonably spend - 5-10 x $1 H2Hs, maybe a $2 50/50 game as well. That's pretty minimal to just test it out.
HurryUpSundays
Footballguy
After 'retiring' from 6 big money leagues this year, I caved and joined Fan Duel yesterday.
This is exactly what I needed. No trades, no waivers, no sleepless nights. Love tweaking with the salary cap, though I've done it so many times already onall 10 of my teams that I couldn't name you one starting roster.
Looking forward to this thread throughout the year.
This is exactly what I needed. No trades, no waivers, no sleepless nights. Love tweaking with the salary cap, though I've done it so many times already onall 10 of my teams that I couldn't name you one starting roster.
Looking forward to this thread throughout the year.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Joe T
Footballguy
Any other options?
(hate paypal)
Edit:
Looks like they will pay by check as well (7-10 days).
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Bob Barker
Footballguy
Where do you go to see % ownership on fanduel? Do they have hat info on draft kings also?
Yeah you're going to see a lot of cheap QB + cheap D + cheap K this week for sure. Hill and Carr will be used a lot. Jets, Lions, Buccaneers, Vikings will be used a lot. Freese and Parkey probably will be the most used kickerswdcrob said:
It's just smart. The majority of those defenses are under $5,000 and those kickers are under $5,000. Spending in the $5,000 range on QB, we're talking about $45,000+ to spend on the skill positions. You can really have a loaded roster. The key is which skill players to take, that is what's going to separate these ineups, which is the case any other time anyways
For me though, I like to stack QB and WR in GPP, so I have a very specific QB/WR combo I'm throwing out there as well as an expensive WR unit. I gotta hope that not only do my cheaper RB's do work, but also the receivers who I spent quite a bit on to really tear it up
If you have a very cheap value play at RB or WR, I'd abandon the cheap QB strategy to kind of maximize it all because you'll have the money left to finish off your roster. Otherwise, it makes a ton of sense to go cheap at QB/D/K and just loading your roster with studs
Draftkings wont have it until game time. Reason, you can still switch players out after the contest locks on Thursday -- think it locks an hour before game time. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.Bob Barker said:
I'm seeing Hill between 2 - 9% on FanDuel and Foles closer to 10 - 15%.
You'll have sleepless nights if you want to win, that's all I can say. A lot of intuition and knowledge of the game goes into it, but their are so many other factors and raw data that needs to be compiled to compete. Vegas plays a big part in who you need to start, which isn't something you really think about in year long leagues. Player prop bets, understands the information that is useful and not. The first few weeks of daily are a blast. But once you start to lose week in and week out, you turn into a robot and that's really what it takes to have the edge and win from week to week. With your yearly league, you have only so many options to choose from and a loss 1 week doesn't hurt you too bad. On daily, their are a ton of options to choose from at each position, on top of a salary cap. It really is a lot more like work than you'd expect. Regardless, I love it. I can't get enough of the research and time consumed to create the best lineups every weekHurryUpSundays said:
Shonn Greene @ KC for $4100 on Draftkings -- anything to see there?
Sounds like he'll be in line for 10 - 15 touches and potential goal line work.
Vegas has the Titans at 20.5 points in a FG loss. Offense is likely to be spread out and pass dependent, but to me, that just means more touches for Greene early in the year as he's by far the more advanced blocker out of their RBs.
Dodds has Greene at 11 - 45 - 0.4 and 1 - 6. I tend to lean closer to 11 - 40 - 0.5 and 3 - 10.
Either way, he probably has a floor around 4 and an upside around 14. I'm guessing he'll also be lightly owned.
Thoughts?
Sounds like he'll be in line for 10 - 15 touches and potential goal line work.
Vegas has the Titans at 20.5 points in a FG loss. Offense is likely to be spread out and pass dependent, but to me, that just means more touches for Greene early in the year as he's by far the more advanced blocker out of their RBs.
Dodds has Greene at 11 - 45 - 0.4 and 1 - 6. I tend to lean closer to 11 - 40 - 0.5 and 3 - 10.
Either way, he probably has a floor around 4 and an upside around 14. I'm guessing he'll also be lightly owned.
Thoughts?
I looked at Greene but I'm just worried he will be closer to that floor number than the upside. If he starts off poorly then he may lose carries to Sankey. I see Dwyer(if ellington is confirmed out) with a similar floor and upside at 1200 dollars less and I'm having trouble getting too excited about him.
SYMPHONY X
Footballguy
As a former Footballguys subscriber, I am wondering if it would be worth the $30 to renew my subscription for Maurile's daily football league information alone? All of the other content would be a bonus. In other words, do you guys think it would be stupid not to pay the $30 for Maurile's info if a guy was serious about trying to turn a buck or two at Fanduel or Draftkings?
karmarooster
Footballguy
Do you really want to put money on Shonn Greene... on the road.... in Arrowhead... potentially splitting time with Sankey?
As super value RBs I like Ingram (4200) against Atlanta, and JStewart (3300) against TB, as more likely to score TDs, as well as get more receptions than Greene (3 receptions for him is too high IMO when they have Sankey and McCluster. He had 6 receptions in 11 games last year). If Ingram and Stewart can approximate what they did in the preseason, should provide solid value.
Greene has that "40 yard" floor, but Ingram and Stewart have higher ceilings IMO. I figure with Cam's rib issue, Stewart and Tolbert should get the goal line work.
BTW this is all for some long-shot tournament lineup. I wouldn't roll with any of the 3 in cash games.
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SYMPHONY X
Footballguy
I haven't played much at Fanduel, but over the short time I have played, it didn't take long to hear/learn about Condia. With his "legendary" status, how is it, do you think, that he maintains a "high winning percentage" (I assume he does) week after week, year after year? It would have to be, more than anything, that there are still schools upon schools of guppies (like me, at first) swimming around at Fanduel, just waiting to be gobbled up by Sharks. If Condia really is winning gobs of cash on a consistent basis, it seems that one could study his lineups week in and week out and join him in the feeding frenzy. Can't be that simple now, can it?
My initial thinking going into week one was to build my teams around McCoy/Charles, due to their guarantee of high-volume touches, and great values like Hill and Maclin floating around. To my surprise, Condia is doing exactly that (in a few of his lineups, anyways). Kinda makes me feel like I actually am getting a handle on the daily fantasy winning formula, although I have only played it for a relatively short time.
How do you get the 100% deposit bonus up to $200? I have an account that was made in 2011 but never deposited, only won some money from free entries. I tried https://www.fanduel.com/footballguys but it doesn't do anything when logged in and I click on play now. I see no options when adding funds to input a promo code and am forced to use a 75% deposit bonus instead.
Looking like you probably can't unless it's a brand new account. Sucks.
Looking like you probably can't unless it's a brand new account. Sucks.
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Yeah, probably right. I'm assuming he catches a higher volume of passes being the lead back this week in wisenhunts offense (SD RBs combined for a TON of catches last year).
Looking for a cheap, contrarian flex. Ellington has forced me to do some shifting around on draftkings GPP.
SYMPHONY X
Footballguy
Thank you, Nate, for sharing this info! I was waffling a bit on Hill, but you are right. He is just too damn good a value not to use in the 50/50's and H2H formats this week.nastynate said:
mlbnfl
Footballguy
For guys that played fanduel last year for their tournaments with what will likely be like 40000 entries plus, were the top winners last year absolutely astronomical weeks? I mean I assume with that many entries the answer is obviously yes so I've been trying to craft super high upside teams. Find myself also trying to stack like many in this thread have said as I'd imagine for instance a combo like Ryan/Julio or Luck/TY etc if the connect for a couple bombs that is the type of day you need to actually cash in a field so large. I just ask because I ran through so many different lineups I wanted a fresh opinion so asked a buddy who knows his stuff and explain the setup and he gave me a lineup which I really don't see as the type of lineup that could place highly in this type of tourney but maybe I'm off base.! Plus I admittedly thought it was no ppr when I now see it's actually 0.5 ppr so my thinking was skewed a bit but I was looking at a lot of boom bust guys like Hilton, Cordarelle, even Desean or Mike Wallace etc if I needed money elsewhere, so now knowing its 0.5 ppr that might change slightly.
For informational purposes the lineup he gave me (in his defense he decided this in like five minutes so I doubt it'd be he finals lineup and he had $300 to spare I believe) was Kaepernick, Montee, Vereen, Mike Floyd, Colston, Wayne, Graham, McManus and Jets D. It's not a bad lineup and Has guys that could blow up but I just feel like the ceiling of guys like Colston and Wayne etc isn't high enough to actually place as high as you need to in this huge lottery. Sorry for the rambling I've just been all about fanduel these past few days since signing up.
For informational purposes the lineup he gave me (in his defense he decided this in like five minutes so I doubt it'd be he finals lineup and he had $300 to spare I believe) was Kaepernick, Montee, Vereen, Mike Floyd, Colston, Wayne, Graham, McManus and Jets D. It's not a bad lineup and Has guys that could blow up but I just feel like the ceiling of guys like Colston and Wayne etc isn't high enough to actually place as high as you need to in this huge lottery. Sorry for the rambling I've just been all about fanduel these past few days since signing up.
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