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FanEx Analysis Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TC
- Start date
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
TC going with the rookie WR? Not bad, but I'm not sure he'll do as well as they say this year.
I suppose you will ignore this thread for a while, David, but I have a comment I didn't enter in my guest analysis:Your draft was the best example I've seen in quite a while of "putting the pressure" on your fellow drafters. You got great RB value with your 1-2 pick by doubling up on RBs, thus freeing yourself to attack other positions. Instead of sitting still, you trade 3 and 4 down for a plethora of mid-round picks, which turn into a great 3-4 RB punch (you will have the deepest RB pool if Pittman gets 1G rushing, 60 receptions, and 6 total TDs this year). This put the pressure on the other drafters to reach for RBs after you solidifed the position.Then you put together a serviceable WR committee, and a great QBBC - the QB picks especially put all the pressure on the guys drafting around you to reach if they want anyone at any of the skill positions.I think it is crucial that you add another WR with value at your next pick, unless someone like shannon sharpe falls to you in the 10th. You definitely need another WR, so I'd assume that your last 5 picks will be DX2, KX2 and a backup TE.Finally, your point about QB/RB combos in a league like this was excellent - and something I may apply this year. I may backup my stud RB with the QB from that same team, if I can get the QB for value. That is an idea that may work this year, thinking about the top7 or 8 RBs, they all have QBs that are at least worthy of backup positions.
TC
Footballguy
8.09 WR Charles Rogers DET ® - This guy was *great* for the NCAA Spartans. Rogers was this year's top WR in the rookie draft based on a huge amount of talent and 2003 opportunity. I'm not strong on promoting rookies in FFL. Yet, if any player could make it, Rogers can. He has the speed and hands to make a positive rookie WR in the NFL.
We all realize that receivers don’t often have great rookie campaigns. -- Only a handful has had 1,000 + 8 campaigns. They seldom meet our high expectations. Harrington-to-Rogers is a combination that could have multiple score games, and worth the high-risk reward needed here. If he has four 1000+ games and more than a handful of scores, he'll be a valuable roster player who starts occasionally in place of Moss and Holt.
It has been.. let me count.. 10 days since my last selection and plenty of time to make player considerations. The only other strong candidate here was a rusher, who is not popular with most drafters. Sooo.. I can claim him in a few more picks. Also, there are a few undrafted WRs out there that fell just under the radar - Both Morgan CLE and Taylor BAL may be positive picks, but neither one has the 'extra' of Charles 'Can-Do' Rogers.
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I don't disagree that it was a good pick here for you, probably better than Morgan given the WR and QB uncertainty in CLE. I'm just saying that people talk like he will better Moss' rookie year and I'm not so sure. Remember that Harrington had a heart condition at the end of the year and the latest NewsBlogger reports had Harrington having trouble with the blitz drills. But still a very good pick here given your team makeup.
David Dodds
Administrator
Thanks. Yes I thought I applied a lot of pressure in this draft too. It all started by taking two RBs. I wanted Harrison and almost did that, but then knew I would be scrambling the whole draft. From playing with most of these same players last year I knew a few owners liked to get into the 3rd and 4th rounds. So I set out to do that the second I drafted my two RBs. I wasn't sure exactly how it would go, but by looking at an average draft list at Antsports, I knew this was a sweet spot in the draft.I laid out a strategy on exactly how many of each position I would draft and generally where I would take them. So far it has come off perfectly to my plan.I considered taking my 4th WR (over Collins), but actually believe that Holm and Hansen have really good teams too (because they also avoided QB. That's when I decided to take Collins and try and force everyone's hand a little more at the QB position.My next two picks won't be shockers. I will take a WR or TE in the 10th and a WR or TE in the 12th. Add two kickers and two defenses late and I still have a pick that I won't disclose yet.I know my team is as deep as any. Will it win? Time will tell. I do know if history repeats itself about half of the teams in this league will lose because of injuries. My depth strategy is trying to make sure I am competitive all year without a giant reliance on any one player.
Agreed team Holm and team Hansen have drafted ostensibly better RBs, but I don't think anyone else has your balance to three deep at the three major positions. With the run on TE evolving, I'd guess that next you will take a flyer on a WR with a track record, but in a good position to excel, as WR still contains decent depth. Have to see how the next three rounds shake out, but I would guess that you taking a TE in the 10th will require a bit of a reach as everyone else fills in what they need.I think it would be real important to draft 2 TEs in this league - if your #1 goes down to injury, you take zeros the rest of the year!
Who's gonna get Andre Johnson? If he slides to the 10th I'd take him. He's bigger than Rogers, faster, and arguably has better hands. Look at the receivers on Houston, if Corey Bradford managed to put up some numbers... Anyway, Carr is everything advertised, if he can stay on his feet (big if) he can deliver and this kid is gonna outplay Rogers this year and have a couple monster games IMO. Easilly worth a spot. And, as always, if all else fails take Kevin Kasper. Anybody with the cajones to give the Mile High Salute to Denver at home after they cut him (by scoring his 3rd td in the final 2 games) deserves a spot.
dparker713
Footballguy
First off, the knock on Johnson going into the draft was that he didnt have great hands. Second, I see no reason to believe at this time that the Houston Oline will be respectable. I expect it to be better then last year, because last year was the worst Oline in the history of the NFL, but it will still be in the bottom handful of Olines in the league. Carr is good and has shown signs that he is a franchise QB, but he isnt a miracle worker. Bradford will be the #1 WR for at least another year and that means that Billy Miller is the only receiving threat worth taking a flyer on.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
So, through 8 rounds, whose team does everyone like so far. I think my top 3 for various reasons are Cahill, TC and David's teams. I'm hoping this opinion is not influenced by the fact that they are the three owners posting on this thread most often. 
Edited to add content:I like Cahill's team with it's QBs and WRs. And although Emmitt and Alstott aren't great as RB2 and RB3, Williams is almost worth 2 RBs himself. I like David's team with it's overall depth, especially if he picks up a decent TE1. I like TC's team for it's star power, even with a hole at QB. Warner should come back this year, but he needs to grab another QB soon. However, Alexander, George, Holt and Moss are all reliable options (yes, even George) and Rogers has great upside.
Edited to add content:I like Cahill's team with it's QBs and WRs. And although Emmitt and Alstott aren't great as RB2 and RB3, Williams is almost worth 2 RBs himself. I like David's team with it's overall depth, especially if he picks up a decent TE1. I like TC's team for it's star power, even with a hole at QB. Warner should come back this year, but he needs to grab another QB soon. However, Alexander, George, Holt and Moss are all reliable options (yes, even George) and Rogers has great upside.
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TC
Footballguy
Oh yes. We do agree. 9.02 RB Ladell Betts
By TC Cannon of YouthFantasyFootball
To claim him, a bit of 'insurance' was needed. I moved up two slots and gave up five later. Cannon 9.04 + 10.09 for Cahill 9.02 (current) + 11.02 was the deal.
QB Warner
RB Alexander George Betts
WR Moss Holt Rogers
I liked these 3 picks:9.03 - Quincy Morgan9.04 - Larry Johnson9.05 - Marcel ShippMorgan should be a solid WR3 with Toomer and Coles. Cahill was already loaded at WR, and Larry Johnson could pay off huge if Holmes isn't 100% healthy for most of the season. Also, he likely would have gone at the next pick to Engel as insurance for Priest Holmes.As for Engel...he's taking a risk by waiting to fill his QB2 spot behind McNabb. But, his RBs also have some question marks (Priest, CuMartin, Zereoue), so Shipp should be a solid RB4 that could do well if anything happens to old-man Emmitt.
I don't get it. How can Kerry Collins, a mediocre QB with no real value in this format based on a track record built up over years, go off the board before a potentially explosive QB like Kelly Holcomb? I mean, at least Holcomb has never failed at this level and is probably going to get his first chance to start in this league. Take a chance someone. Its just a QB3 position! 
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Uh...well it's May and Holcombe may not even be the starter while Collins has absolutely no competition?I don't get it. How can Kerry Collins, a mediocre QB with no real value in this format based on a track record built up over years, go off the board before a potentially explosive QB like Kelly Holcomb? I mean, at least Holcomb has never failed at this level and is probably going to get his first chance to start in this league. Take a chance someone. Its just a QB3 position!
dparker713
Footballguy
How about these reasons?Couch will compete for the starting spot and is currently listed as the starter. Its not like he has a boatload of talent and is just getting his head on straight, he was an undrafted FA.He'll be 30 before the season starts and last year was the first time he showed any ability at all.He has no #1WR. A whole lot of quality receivers, but no one has shown the ability to be special.Butch Davis would prefer to hand the ball to WGreen 25 times a game then air it out.
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Thanks, I was just too lazy to write all that.
Chris Smith
The Head Goon!
I agree with everything you said except....WR Quincy Morgan is indeed ready to take the mantle as a #1 receiver. He is a great talent.
I'd rather take a "chance" on guys like Kerry Collins, Brad Johnson, Patrick Ramsey, or Jake Plummer before I drafted Kelly Holcomb. The Browns have invested a lot of time and money in Tim Couch and it won't be easy for Holcomb to win that starting job. Regardless, it's always better to take a sure starter than a 50/50 chance, whether you are taking QB1, QB2, or QB3. Even if Holcomb wins the job outright, I don't think he'll put up better numbers than Collins.The Giants offense after Fassel took over last year was one of the more explosive offenses in the league. Barber, Toomer, and Shockey are three awesome weapons that Collins has at his disposal...plus the return of Hilliard and the young WRs. The guy fumbles and makes bad decisions, but he can still light it up on occasion.Didn't he throw 5 TD passes in the NFC championship game only a few years ago?
Chris Smith
The Head Goon!
I'm staying away from that one
I took a lot of flack last season for my post-draft analysis of Davis. He started off strong only to fade as the season wore on. However he did show talent and more polish than I believed he possessed and he'll fit into the mix somewhere. However, Morgan was a big-time talent coming out of Kansas State and showed the football world he is ready to be an elite receiver by stepping up his game last year.The Browns are blessed with four very good receivers. I also like Dennis Northcutt and it is a nice luxury to slot in Kevin Johnson as a third receiving option. This team is loaded for bear when it comes to passing the football.The thing that I like about Collins as Dodds' #3 is the very thing that most don't like. He is consistent, but not spectacular. Dodds has Brady and Maddox. Both are capable of putting up great games and stinkers. Once in a while the averages are going to give two stinkers in one week. With Collins, you are pretty much sure to have a good score every week.Also, as was already mentioned, the Giants offense became pretty explosive last year. He will get some pretty nice games out of Collins.
dparker713
Footballguy
Injuries, injuries, injuries!!!!!You cant predict them, but you can plan for them. Having 3 starting QBs that will not lose their position except by injury is invaluable in this format.
There aren't really any QB2s or QB3s in this format. They are all QB1s.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Here are my thoughts. I set out to draft people with NO CONTROVERSY involved in them. At RB, that was nearly impossible as I wanted 4 starters. But at WR and QB that is definitely doable. In fact I think at QB it is absolutely necessary. A few teams in this league will go with just 2 QBs because they believe their QB1 is so strong. Here are my thoughts:- Even the best QBs will have 3-5 poor games- Every QB has a bye week- A lot of QBs will miss some time this year.- 3-5 QBs get benched every yearWith Brady, Maddox and Collins, I don't see losing any of these players to benchings. That means a lot of weeks I have all three of these competing and I get their best performance. I will take the three headed monster at QB always over a Star who is one hit away (or a quick hook away) from losing this league for me.Ramsey, Plummer and Holcombe are all risky whether one wants to admit it or not. All have situations where they are hard to predict this year. I feel comfortable that the QBs I have in place will play the whole year unless they are injured.More thoughts about my team going forward: Yes I positively will have another WR, 2 TEs, 2 PKs and 2 defenses. This allows me one more float position to be determined later.
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I was sorry to see Pinkston and Streets go as they would have been fantastic value for you as your 4th WR, especially Streets.
Brady I'd feel comfortable with. But both Maddox and Collins have already flamed out once already in their careers (in Denver and Carolina, respectively). They have proven they can fail at this level in a big way. They haven't clearly put that past behind them, either. I still see risk there.With Holcomb, you are getting risk with Couch there, but you are also getting a QB who has never been given a starting QB job and utterly failed. That means a lot to me, imho. In fact, its his amazing play in spot duty that is forcing the controversy.What you're getting with your selections is something comparable to Randall Cunningham after his comeback 1998 season. He failed once. He did the comeback. Then he failed again. Another example is Jeff George. He fails/succeeds/fails year in, year out. Jim Harbaugh? Doug Williams? Jay Schroeder?
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Maybe, maybe, you can say that about Maddox. But Collins?! I mean come on, BGP, try to tone down the homerism a little bit. How many starts does Holcomb have in his career? Now compare that to Collins. How many games has Collins missed with injury? Only the ones when that ####### Romanowski tatooed him in the jaw with a late hit. I know you love the Browns, but I think you're overestimating their offensive output this season. I think that both the Steelers and Giants will score more points and have more yards than Cleveland.Edited to add that I can't believe that sc-umbag is filtered?! I thought I was using restraint when describing him.
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Trey Junkin
Footballguy
Todd Pinkston, Tai Streets...when is somebody going to get around to taking Josh Reed? I'm not saying he's going to completely break out, but I like his chances a lot more than those 2 guys.
Since becoming the full time starter in New York, Kerry Collins has posted these numbers:2000: 16 starts, 58.8% completion, 3,610 passing yards, 22 TD, 13 INT
2001: 16 starts, 57.6% completion, 3,764 passing yards, 19 TD, 16 INT
2002: 16 starts, 61.5% completion, 4,073 passing yards, 19 TD, 14 INT
In his career, Collins has started at least 10 games every season but one--1999, his first with the Giants, when he started only 7.
In his career, Kelly Holcomb has started 3 games. Total.
I could list about 50 QBs in the league who have never failed when given the oppourtinity to start--like Holcomb, they have just never started. Sure, they might be All Pros just looking for the chance to start, but why pick a guy with no track record over one who has 3 straight seasons of 16 starts, over 3,500 passing yards, and a positive TD/INT ratio?
As for Maddox, he got 4 starts during his rookie season in Denver, before bouncing around as a backup for several years and finally leaving the NFL. He played horribly that season, with a 54.5% completion rate and a 5/9 TD-INT ratio. In the same season, John Elway posted a 55.1% completion rate, and a 10/17 TD-INT ratio--do you think it might maybe have been the team he was working with, instead of Maddox himself?
I don't think I'm being a homer at all. I'm just disputing the statement by Dodds that Maddox and Collins lack any kind of risk. I even said Holcomb is a risk, so how can I be called a homer? If you were to have asked me in any other year, I'd have told you to stay the heck away from Browns in your fantasy draft (except taking a flyer on Jamel White late). Its not like I'm guaranteeing Holcomb will be all-universe, I just think his upside is far greater than Collins based on pro-rating Holcomb's 2002 over a full 16 games.I do think that at some point, numbers like Holcomb is putting up CANNOT be ignored anymore. Wether it takes 4 games to convince you, or 8, or a full season, or (in Priest Holmes case for some) 2 full seasons, there comes a time when you have to upgrade a player. I think at QB3 his numbers scream value.
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BGP,how many QBs are there in the NFL that have started a superbowl?How many that have taken two different teams to the championship game? The guy's a winner.He threw for 4k yards last year and sure his TD numbers stink but Shockey only had 2 TDs. Of course you expect Shockey's to increase don't ya?How can you play FF and knock a 4k yard QB?As for the other stuff, I think Kerry deserves some credit. That should come with the blame. There's alot of alcoholic's out there. Yes he messed up but he got his SH together and really did the right thing. That's not easy. Some credit should follow all the blame. (Sidenote see Favre)Holcomb is playing in the system he played in in college or NFLE. Can't recall which. He was FAR more familiar with it than Couch. First string QB practices with the first string WRs. Second string with the second string WRs. Moreso than most teams, the second string WRs played plenty in Cle last year. He had familiarity with them that Couch didn't. Holcomb enterred the NFL in 1995 for the Bucs. Who was their QB? Then he sat in 1996 and played precious little for the Colts in 1997 and 1998. Who was their QB before Manning(99)? "Off the face of the earth" from 1998 til he throws all of 12 passes in 2001.Plays "the bulk of" 3 games(weeks 1,2,5) in 2002. Has one fine game with 300 yards. The other 2 he doesn't even throw for 200 yards.When did he make the pro bowl?Sorry but I agree with them, you're being a homer, man. Your true anger is probably more along the lines of Couch not becoming Manning-like, so you look for anyone else to play. Couch never had a running game and his stats when Green was tearing it up|14 jax | 21 35 264 2 2 | 1 12 0 || 15 ind | 21 35 287 2 0 | 4 -1 0 || 16 bal | 22 31 209 1 1 | 1 -1 0 |Hang in there, Couch may be OK
TC
Footballguy
Come on now, Dodds never said they had no risk. No-one has no risk, we all know that. He said he went for guys with no contraversy, big difference. Brady, Maddox, and Collins are all starters with no competition at their positions pre-season, no question about that. For that matter, if I had to pick some QBs that I would rank most likely to throw for at least 3500 yards this year, Kerry Collins is easilly on that list. Kelly Holcomb doesnt come close. He may not ever see the field, and that is just cold hard fact. Here's some cold water for ya:2002 stats
Kelly Holcomb 106 att, 64 comp, 60.4%, 790 y, 8 tds, 4 ints, 9 yards rushing
Danny Wuerfell 92 att, 58 comp 63.0%, 719 y, 3 tds, 6 ints, 76 yards rushing
Aside from the TDS (pretty small sample size either way), Wuerfell weighs in pretty darn close. I'm not saying Holcomb isnt a better Qb, he is. But I know Wuerfell is mediocre, and Holcomb certainly didnt blow his doors off by any means.
Just a thought.
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
So anyway, David is up again. Who does he take? Lots of WRs have gone lately, so maybe the best value is at TE?Maybe Josh Reed here?
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David Dodds
Administrator
I am thinking receiver and considering these guys:Tim Brown, Joey Galloway, Ed McCaffrey, James Thrash or Josh Reed
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Maybe you grab another RB here in case Pittman is suspened? Or would that be overreacting?
I'd rank the top 4 so far:1. Hulett/Houston - great depth everywhere, I like every pick they've made.2. Cahill - every pick except Emmitt has been great. Somehow I think this team will eventually win it all.3. Dodds - the depth can' t be argued with and the Josh Reed pick solidifies his team as top 3.4. Del Pilar/Bonini - starting the entire 49ers offense can not be a bad thing... 3 great qb's; may end up with some weakness at WR though.
I think his "float" pick just became a RB, but no use getting one here, when there's still some WR talent out there.FWIW, I give the edge to Thrash out of the ones DD listed. Brown & McCaffrey are on the decline, not sure if Galloway will hang onto his starting role with the Glenn & Bryant in Dallas, and while Reed has upside, he's untested as a top 2 receiver. Thrash seems to be the safest pick, while still giving the potential for some big weeks.
