David Dodds
Administrator
Just waiting on KFFL. All ready to pounce on some players after they select.
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FanEx Analysis Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TC
- Start date
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Me too. Is my math correct in that they have until 5:11 am to pick?
David Dodds
Administrator
KFFL took Trent Green (who I wanted). I have picked Tommy Maddox and sent them a message regarding trading for Trent Green. I want Green, but it's not life or death here. I have a few others that I will be looking at shortly if they refuse my trade offer.
Brave Sir Robin
Footballguy
Green in this format is a great pick. Hope you get him.
David Dodds
Administrator
I am keeping Brady.Here is what I offered but I give it about a 2% chance at success:My 8.02 +10.01 + 12.01 + 13.12 + 15.12 + 17.12 for Green (7.11) + 10.02 + 14.02 + 16.02 + 18.02I draft too close to KFFL to offer enough to get Green in my opinion. I will give them a few hours before selecting another player. I am definitely thinking QB here and although the consensus pick is screaming QB Kerry Collins, I think he has little to no upside. He will finish as the 15th QB with a bunch of average games in my opinion. Even though he ended up with 4,000+ yards last season, look at his finish by week last year (against FBG scoring)Week 1 - 26th best QBWeek 2 - 13Week 3 - 16Week 4 - 27Week 5 - 10Week 6 - 20Week 8 - 23Week 9 - 14Week 10 - 10Week 11 - 25Week 12 - 22Week 13 - 10Week 14 - 11Week 15 - 28Week 16 - 1Week 17 - 13So basically he was only good enough last year in this format to be the best in week 16 and possibly the best on this team another 7 times (but every other team in the league would likely score more as he was around 10th - 14th in all these games). And last year was a good year for Collins too. that makes him a decent backup option against injury, etc but doubtful he would do much except secure that I would never have a terrible day at QB. I am thinking if the trade does not go through I might pull the trigger on Plummer. He definitely has a lot more upside in my opinion. And with no picks from now until 10.01, he would be gone if I waited. I definitely want to keep the pressure on QBs here as Hansen has yet to even take one and some other owners have just one. By choosing two QBs, I will be done drafting them just as a run on them is happening.I guess what I need to know is:Am I overanalyzing the Collins pick?
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I don't think you are over-analyzing Collins. It's a solid analysis. He has a lot of 260-300 games with 1 TD. You already have NYG's TD machine in Tiki. I think doublingup on the Giants OFF (not a strong one) is not the best choice. Plummer will be stepping into a talented OFF team with veterans everywhere at WR/TE and a fantastic pass-catching RB in Portis. Better to spread the wealth in the best scoring format.BTW - Is Mack still on your roster? FAD is not showing him on your list....
David Dodds
Administrator
Mack is on my roster:QB: Tom Brady, Tommy MaddoxRB: Tiki Barber, Fred Taylor, Michael Pittman, Stacey MackWR: Peerless Price, Derrick Mason, Troy Brownand a pick right now
BassNBrew
Footballguy
DD...Your not even in the right hemisphere considering another QB (especially Collins after your analysis).1 pt for every 30 yd and 4 per TD. Just say no to another QB.Since a TE is mandatory, consider grabbing a good one here. A 6-60-1 TE day = a 300-1.5 QB.You must grab a regular contributor at this point. How likely is your 3rd QB to post a score each week. 33% if they're all equal, more likely 25% in reality. A 4th WR is 50% likely to post a score with all things being equal and probably 40% in reality. If you inist on three QBs, look for someone who can go big in any given game. I'd target someone like Kordell (rushing pts and go look at his schedule) or Harrington in round ten. If you don't see the value in the directions that I'm pointing, then use the advantage that you've masterfully acquired to trade down a round and garner a late 8th and 9th round picks and continue to build your advantage.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Reviewing the draft list I don't see any huge value at WR unless you think Rodgers will put good ROY numbers or Morgan will separate himself from KJ/Northcutt/Davis in Clevland. If you like Plummer then you should like Sharpe. Crumpler also put up nice numbers and Kelly is gone.Just some food for thought, but definately grab a contributor rather then a bench warmer.
David Dodds
Administrator
Yes I might consider trading down, but I disagree with you about having three QBs. I won this last year with Fiedler, Stewart and Brunell. The key is having three so you never have a bad game. Same with 4 RBs and 4 WRs to cove the 2 RB / 2 WR + flex. I hear the TE argument, but there aren't many guys that get 60 and a TD very often. I don't plan on taking a TE here at all.If I went WR I think I would take Quincy MorganIf I took RB I think I would go Alstott (I did not plan on taking 5, but like how this would pair with Pittman and would get the TD games with Alstott) At QB I am looking at Plummer or Collins
David Dodds
Administrator
Trade for Trent Green is officially DEAD. I am going to send out a message that I am interested in trading down and see what that looks like in the morning.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I agree that trading down is your best option. Collins or Plummer is a wasted pick here. Stewart is your best option as a big week QB. Morgan would be your best pick if you get stuck. That extra quality WR won't hurt with the flex and just look at some of the huge games he posted MorganGood luck and great draft thus far.
David Dodds
Administrator
All over the map here, but also thinking Shannon Sharpe makes some sense too. I grab a TE so I am ahead of runs there (and since I don't pick again until 10.01 that is the safe thing to do). Sharpe is explosive WHEN he plays, but that works good in this format.
dparker713
Footballguy
I realize the possible upside for the Plummer pick, but I think if you want to take a QB for upside I would go with Ramsey. He at least doesnt have a history of underperforming and apparent color blindness. I understand the lack of interest in Collins, though I think with Hillard and Dixon and Tim Carter back as well as a healthy Shockey, he could have a better year as far as TDs go. Also, you should note that until Fossil took over the play calling in about week 9, the Giants actually tried to move away from the endzone when they got within the 20.Also, in a normal format, I dont like to have the QB and RB on the same team. It limits the chance for a huge game if you start both of them, but in this format I think it makes more sense. When the Giants score, its either going to be through Collins or Tiki, and sometimes both. On the weeks when one of them is shutdown, the other has an opportunity to post a big week. This is only advisable if you think that the Giants have a potent offense, though I contend that they have more weapons then Seattle, the trendy pick for breakout offense.The other starting QBs left are Blake, Kitna, Stewart, Couch/Holcombe, Harrington, Brunell, Fiedler, Brees, BJohnson, Ramsey, Redman, Hutchinson, Peete/Delhomme, Carr. Only BJohnson, Ramsey, Kitna, Brunell and Stewart seem to be above the bottom of the barrel choices. It would seem to me that your 2 best options are Collins and BJohnson, though Johnson seems to have more upside with his second year in Chucky's system. Plus, one way or another you'd be likely to get the TB points each week.If you pass on a QB here, I think that you would be looking at Carr, Redman, Balke, Hutchinson and the Carolina mess staring you in the face at 10.1.
David Dodds
Administrator
Good points on Collins. This is the player I am leaning more to with every second here. I also like Ramsey and Plummer, but both are big question marks. I like keeping the pressure on at the QB position since some owners don't have a QB yet (and others have just 1). Done debating with myself - Kerry Collins it is.
Boone22
Footballguy
I think this is a good choice here. I like the Collins pick, especially since you already have Tiki on your team and therefore get production no matter which way they score. With Shockey having another year in the system, Ike coming back from injury, and Fassil continuing to call the offensive plays I see better production from Collins this year.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I agree. I know what the numbers for him last year looked like and I know this is a different scoring league, but Collins as a 3rd QB is great. There wasn't good value at WR and Sharpe may be due for a fall in production, so TE probably wasn't the way to go either. Just take the best value of those two positions at 10.1.
I don't like the Collins pick as much as the others. I think he is a safe choice, but you didn't really need him with Brady/Maddox already. If you were going QB3, I would have gone with the huge potential of Ramsey. Face it, with Brady/Maddox, you're getting a quality start almost every week, Collins won't have as many big games as Ramsey, who might have some bad ones too-but in this format, they won't count....Seems to me with Brady/Maddox/Ramsey, you would have had a good shot at a QB with 3 td's any given week, or at least 2 td's with a bunch of yards. Collins to me just doesn't seem explosive enough for me with Ramsey out there. As someone else's QB2 it would have made total sense. To me, in this format, Collins would not have been my pick. I agree with everything else you've done so far, and even got stuck with 1.12 in an X-pert survival league, and made a similar trade to the one you did Mr.DD and it worked out perfectly....Agree that TE wasn't worth the 8.1 here.
I take the opposite tact as Tommy300 on this. Maddox is a big question mark and will likely be up and down all year. Brady is a talented QB, but lets take an honest look at his offense with Smith and Brown another year older. Brady hasnt proved that he can get it done by pure force of will ala Elway or Favre. If nothing else, Collins is the more consistant of the three, not flashy but productive. Yeh he may not get used a lot of weeks, but the ones he does will be very good. He's got a top 10 reciever, a top 3 TE, and possibly the best pass catching tailback in the league. Lets not forget that not only do Collins/Barber cover each others down weeks, they will also combine for some potentially huge games. You also gotta think that the top 3 QBs just went off everybodies draft list in the last 3 picks. Some of these teams are in big trouble.
Hickerson has got to be sick to his stomach. There is no way he could have figured 3 of the next 4 would be QB's (And there still is 1 pick to go.). I think Keyshawn provided alot of value where he took him, but Green also provided value and was much much more of a need. Green also would have provided him the flexibility Dodds has been speaking so much about.Nice job David, now some of these guys are forced to take a QB with the next couple of picks just to get 2 of these guys (Plummer/Johnson/Ramsey/Stewart/Brees/Fiedler/Kitna/Brunell) or they risk ending up with Harrington/Carr/Blake.Two ways to look at the Collins selection. The bad part is he's consistant, the good part is he's consistant. It's next to impossible to predict injury, but I beleive Maddox will miss at least 3 games this year (this coming from a Steeler season ticket holder.). With the Collins selection you assure yourself consistant production even in the case of injury. While not flashy, this picks works on so many levels that you had to make this selection.
SkyRattlers
Anti-aliai
I have to disagree with the Collins pick. As you can see above David you provided all the proof we need to show you made the wrong choice. You won it with 3 fantasy scrubs last year, all three of whom are still on the board. I like Collins quite a bit this year for all the reasons dparker mentioned. But he just doesn't fit into your team as it stands right now. Best option was to trade down, but otherwise I would have snagged a TE here. Even you had only gotten 11 weeks out of Sharpe again those 11 weeks would have been very solid ones.
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Nemesis
Footballguy
Well, with Dodd's Roster like this:
3 qb
4 rb
3 wr
0 te
0 k
0 def
and EIGHT upcoming picks of:
10.1.............TE or 4th WR (rb is a remote possibility if value is there)
-----
12.1.............TE or 4th WR (whichever he didn't select @ the 10.1 pick)
-----
13.12 and 14.1..........starting to fill out his K, def spots
-------------------
15.12 and 16.1..........maybe add a 5th WR
-------------------
17.12 and 18.1..........fill in remaining spots (probably 2nd K and 2nd Def)
he has about 1 or 2 of those eight picks to play with.......selecting a 5th RB or 2nd TE
(I'm assuming that the strategy in this league dictates you have 2 K, 2 Def to cover bye weeks)
Question: In this format, would you rather have a 5th RB or a 2nd TE? or a 5th WR?
3 qb
4 rb
3 wr
0 te
0 k
0 def
and EIGHT upcoming picks of:
10.1.............TE or 4th WR (rb is a remote possibility if value is there)
-----
12.1.............TE or 4th WR (whichever he didn't select @ the 10.1 pick)
-----
13.12 and 14.1..........starting to fill out his K, def spots
-------------------
15.12 and 16.1..........maybe add a 5th WR
-------------------
17.12 and 18.1..........fill in remaining spots (probably 2nd K and 2nd Def)
he has about 1 or 2 of those eight picks to play with.......selecting a 5th RB or 2nd TE
(I'm assuming that the strategy in this league dictates you have 2 K, 2 Def to cover bye weeks)
Question: In this format, would you rather have a 5th RB or a 2nd TE? or a 5th WR?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I can't imagine them not taking the best available WR here. Morgan?
Nemesis
Footballguy
10 Brady,
4 Collins
7 Maddox
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4 Barber
5 Mack
4 Pittman
7 Taylor
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10 Brown
9 Mason
8 Price
Note: Alstott has a bye week of 4! TJ Ducket-wk8
Note2: I know this is a Total Points League (not a H to H League).
Hey David: Do YOU view this as a problem if say, Alstott is still available with your next pick or do you side on the "take the best available" and it'll work itself out?
4 Collins
7 Maddox
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Barber
5 Mack
4 Pittman
7 Taylor
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 Brown
9 Mason
8 Price
Note: Alstott has a bye week of 4! TJ Ducket-wk8
Note2: I know this is a Total Points League (not a H to H League).
Hey David: Do YOU view this as a problem if say, Alstott is still available with your next pick or do you side on the "take the best available" and it'll work itself out?
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David Dodds
Administrator
I only look at the bye week thing slightly as it is generally not that big of a deal in a league like this. Obviously I don't want everyone off the same day, but so far it hasn't affected a single pick here.Interesting stuff regarding the trio of Brady, Maddox and Collins.If you took their best game each week, the combined three headed monster would have yielded these stats:42 passing TDs4,658 passing yards22 rushing yards (LOL....not too Vick like)0 rushing TDs296 fantasy pointsand consider Maddox did not even play until the 4th game last yearMore fun:Brady would have started 6 timesMaddox would have started 6 timesand Collins would have started 5 gamesThe pick value calculator rates my picks (6.09) + (7.12) + (8.01) as equivalent to the 23rd overall selection. That corresponds with Daunte Culpepper.The following FanEx teams, despite me having 3 QBs, will pay more for their QB positions (based on the pick value calculator that I programmed) 
'Leary will pay more when he picks another QB (has Culpepper only)Cannon will pay more if he drafts another QB soon (has Warner now)Engel will pay more (has McNabb now)Kellogg has already paid more (has Garcia and Bledsoe)Houston has already paid more (has Gannon and Brooks)Hickerson will pay more when he picks another QB (has Vick only)Del Pillar has already paid more (has Manning and Green)Hansen will clearly pay less as he does not yet have QB (but arguably will overpay for scrubs now)Holm will pay likely pay less (has just Hasselbeck)Cahill will likely pay less unless he adds another QB in the next few rounds (has Favre and McNair)Kadlec will likely pay less (has Pennington)So the question did I get a good deal by waiting on QB and getting three? I think it worked out great for me. In fact I had originally evaluated the trade with Cannon to give me an 8% advantage with those picks. After drafting I think it's even higher.
'Leary will pay more when he picks another QB (has Culpepper only)Cannon will pay more if he drafts another QB soon (has Warner now)Engel will pay more (has McNabb now)Kellogg has already paid more (has Garcia and Bledsoe)Houston has already paid more (has Gannon and Brooks)Hickerson will pay more when he picks another QB (has Vick only)Del Pillar has already paid more (has Manning and Green)Hansen will clearly pay less as he does not yet have QB (but arguably will overpay for scrubs now)Holm will pay likely pay less (has just Hasselbeck)Cahill will likely pay less unless he adds another QB in the next few rounds (has Favre and McNair)Kadlec will likely pay less (has Pennington)So the question did I get a good deal by waiting on QB and getting three? I think it worked out great for me. In fact I had originally evaluated the trade with Cannon to give me an 8% advantage with those picks. After drafting I think it's even higher.
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dparker713
Footballguy
Hey TC, is there a reason that David's team isnt showing the Mack pick in rounds 7 or 8?
I think the biggest reason to have 3 solid quarterbacks is that it's fairly likely that you'll really only have 2 QBs for a significant part of the season. At least one guy will miss several games, and it's possible two will (hopefully at different times).I think it's a mistake in this format to think, "Okay, I have my starter, now I just need a backup who will have a few big weeks here and there." Even when drafting a third QB, I think a better attitude is, "This guy may be my only player at this position in weeks 12-17, so I need him to be solid."It's really amazing how different things look in week 15 than they do now. Certain guys you currently think you can rely on will end up bombing -- count on it -- and without any free agent moves allowed, it makes sense to be prepared for that ahead of time by drafting more conservatively (i.e., gambling on upside less) than you would in a different format.Part of that depends on the league's payout structure, though. If it's winner-take-all, you may want to gamble more on upside, hoping to get lucky. If there are payouts for second and third place, you may want to take a safer approach and improve your chances of finishing in the money.As far as I know (without looking it up), there are no payouts in the FanEx Analysis Draft, so it becomes a matter of personal style.
David Dodds
Administrator
More on why I also decided on Collins:I think in this format it is very advantageous to have a QB/RB combo. One is likely to have a good week when the other struggles. Since I have lots of coverage I am fine with that. If Collins has a great passing day because they abandon the run, then I get Collins points and my other spots hopefully cover RB/WR/Flex. Conversely if the Giants are running at will on a team and Barber is huge, then Brady or maddox are there to rescue Kerry Collins. This team may not win it all, but it will likely be very consistent scoring each week (assuming minimal injuries, benchings, etc). It should be among the deepest teams in this league in my opinion.
A side note about Collins: it's funny that his game-to-game stats were so consistent last year, because I really consider him a fairly streaky passer. When he's on, he can complete just about any pass he attempts, including threading the ball into double coverage. When he's off, he's way off.
David Dodds
Administrator
Yes Maurile this is just a pride league. I won this league last year and did it with depth. You are exactly right that players fall off. To not take three QBs is a huge mistake in my opinion. A few teams this year will not even compete because of an early injury or benching.My QBs on my winning team last year: Jay Fiedler, Mark Brunell and Kordell Stewart. They all missed time. People counting on Vick, Mcnabb, Culpepper every week are living in fantasy land. Not only will these guys possibly miss a game, they will also stink a few weeks too. It is inevitable.Tony Holm had the team to beat last year and then lost McNabb and Holmes. He ended up finishing in the middle of the pack.Terry Cannon had Warner and was done early in the season as he had only two QBs. Certainly some luck is involved in this type of format, but I believe you can mitigate a lot of that luck by drafting 3 starting QBs and 4 starting RBs. Some may still get the three QBs, but most every other team looks vulnerable at RB should one of their backs go down. The teams with just two starting RBs will need a great deal of luck in my opinion to make it through the entire year.
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Duane Cahill
Footballguy
Yeah, I had meant to zip you a thank-you note on that one! The way I see it, there should additionally be more QB's taken this round than there would have been, leaving players at other positions to drop to me. I owe you one, bud!
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David Dodds
Administrator
Yes you do Duane. But my thoughts are the more QBs that keep getting drafted also helps me when I get back in at 10.01 (since I have my QBs). Hansen now has to take one this pick regardless to what value he sees on the board in my opinion and others with just one might also start thinking they need another too. With each one plucked and fewer starters available, I expect the remaining QBs will be taken soon. That was part of my reasoning to take Collins. With the Trent Green pick before me, I had the power to create a mini-panic by making it 3 QBs in a row.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Hard to argue with the defending champ...but...Looking at Collins 6 best games12-22: 28 pt11-10: 1610-6: 1712-1: 1712-8: 159-15: 12total: 105On those same days, Maddox and Brady did the following12-22: 11 and 6 (+17 Collins)11-10: 29 and 20 (-13 Collins)10-6: 19 and 12 (-2 Collins)12-1: DNP and 5 (+12 Collins)12-8: 6 and 14 (+1 Collins)9-15: DNP (not the starter) and 11 (+1 Collins)So by adding Collins to Brady and Maddox, you gain +16 points using Collins best 6 weeks.Now lets look at was left on the board...Quincy Morgan and his 6 best weeks9-8: 31 pts12-8: 22 10-20: 1811-3: 1612-15: 15 11-17: 10total: 112 or Sharpe's best 6: 38 15 14 13 9 7 = 96 ptsYou can argue compared value at position, but I bet the drop off from Morgan to a WR in the 10 round will be greater then the drop off from Collins to someone you could take in the 10-14th rounds.Brees best 6 games: 21 17 16 14 13 13 = 94 pts or just 11 pts less than Collins.Kitna best 6 games: 24 17 16 14 13 12 = 96 pts or just 9 pts less than Collins.Or a rookie Carr best 6: 23 19 12 11 10 9 = 84 pts, 21 pts less than Collins. I would suspect that Carr's numbers will improve this year.I think we're beginning to see why the scrub QB theory works in this league.In Conclusion: IMO, giving the lame QB scoring, the flex position, and the WR friendly scoring. Grabbing 3 QBs early was not the best decision. Yes you may cripple another team or two, but nobody remembers the Fan-Ex runner-up. Someone will get lucky and escape relatively injury free at QB. You did all the analysis, garnered the correct data, but just failed to apply it correctly. That said, your team is still head and shoulders above most of the rest.
David Dodds
Administrator
Interesting analysis, but would be moot if when I tried to get back in and there were no QBs left. People like Redman, Kitna could see themselves not playing the whole season from where I sit. I feel good about the three QBs I have. I also believe I have good coverage from three guys that should not get benched this year. I agree that QBs are devalued in this scoring system (and WRs have a lot of value). I do have three good WRs already though. And I also have 4 starting RBs. So far since I drafted my two QBs, 1 QB and 2 RBs were taken. That's the other piece to this equation in my opinion. The people that need QBs are forced to take them soon or they can get closed out (and a lot of that had to do with me putting the pinch on). This makes every owner taking QBs later overpaying even more than I might have with Collins (actually I think Collins was fair value). Quincy Morgan won't likely make it 10.01, but some other good WRs surely will. I feel the trades and the picks I made with those trades played out great for my team. I have a deep balanced team.
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Duane Cahill
Footballguy
8.01 QB Kerry CollinsBy David Dodds of Footballguys.com8.02 QB Brad JohnsonBy William Del Pilar | Ryan Bonini of KFFL8.03 RB Lamont JordanBy Commissioner Jerome Hickerson of FanEx8.04 RB Correll Buckhalter By Emil Kadlec of FF Pro Forecast
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
All I can say is Wow! KFFL still only has one WR and Hickerson still doesn't have a QB. It will be really interesting to follow this league this year with the differences in philosophies.
Duane Cahill
Footballguy
Actually, Hickerson is sitting on Michael Vick. It's Hansen who has no quarterback yet, although he's on the clock now. If he doesn't take one now, I want to see his Magic 8 Ball.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Oh, thanks. Must have read the page wrong.
