JohnnyU
Footballguy
....or he could be one fumble away from the bench.Also Ryan Mathews value should increase, DJ Fluker is a great run blocker.
....or he could be one fumble away from the bench.Also Ryan Mathews value should increase, DJ Fluker is a great run blocker.
Maybe they deal Gresham today for a 4th or 5th rd pick?I agree that Green should be a slight winner. I think the offense as a whole is going to benefit with the exception of Gresham.Thoughts on AJ Green's value.
I think he's a winner. Green seemed like he got a ton of attention from defenses. Hopefully with Eifert and two TE sets, it takes some focus away from him.
http://www.clanram.com/forums/f85/greg-cosell-talks-2013-nfl-draft-wide-receivers-51412-print/If I recall correctly, Greg Cosell wasn't that high on Hopkins. I personally feel his upside is limited, but I'm not as down on him as Cosell is.He'll also face the usual growing pains that all players have and that can end up being an entire season or two for WR's. But, from a dynasty perspective (which is how I'm looking at it and should have prefaced my previous posts) he's in a good situation.The problem is, they've been content with 'a guy' for a while now, 6+ years. They've had the opportunity to upgrade him and it hasn't really crossed their mind... I don't see the breakdown changing that much for a year or two, but I do expect that WR2 spot to have much better efficiency stats.Hopkins is far more talented than Walter, who's just "a guy." I'm not saying Hopkins will be the OROY but he could have landed in a far worse situation.The older WR happens to be a future HOF'er who is only 32 this year. The best season by the Texans #2 receiver was Kevin Walter with 60/899/8. Schaub isn't suddenly going to be a passing machine in this offense. As a guy that's going to go in the top 5 picks I don't think there's enough upside there unless AJ is injured.I agree Dalton, and Chris Johnson should be in the winners category.It's a great situation IMO. I'm not a huge fan of Hopkins but for WR's I don't think there's much better as far as situation goes besides New England. Only an older WR1 in the way. A solid offense that has an established running game. A QB that can put it out there. I'm still interested where the other WR's end up, but I like it for him.>
Hopkins was described tonight by one analyst as being "pro-ready" and landing into a situation where he was going to have an opportunity to see a large number of snaps right away from day one on a good offensive team. Almost ideal from a fantasy football perspective.I really like Hopkins but I'm afraid he tops out as a low WR2 in that offense until AJ retires.
Ponder is certainly a winner.
I've got the feeling he's going to be a frustrating player in the upcoming season in that he shows so much talent sporadically, but AJ demands what he's always gotten.
yikes, why would they do that? he's worth more than that. I think they are goign to run 2te setsMaybe they deal Gresham today for a 4th or 5th rd pick?I agree that Green should be a slight winner. I think the offense as a whole is going to benefit with the exception of Gresham.Thoughts on AJ Green's value.
I think he's a winner. Green seemed like he got a ton of attention from defenses. Hopefully with Eifert and two TE sets, it takes some focus away from him.
That's true, but how many of those guys were 1.01 rookie picks?Cherry picking a bit...I remember Clinton Portis being a 2nd rounder.
As was LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, MJD.
Frank Gore was a 3rd rounder.
Going back further, Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, and Rickey Watters were all 2nd rounders too.
He's not losing anymore touches than he was going to yesterday.That's true, but he's still going to lose touches which is always concerning.I think the win for CJ2k is WomackThey already acquired Shonn Greene. Were they really going to grab another RB? I don't see it as a win for CJ2K as much as it isn't a loss.I agree Dalton, and Chris Johnson should be in the winners category.
That's true, but he also runs a risk of being an Arrington, a Maurice Morris or a Hardesty. Now that we know no NFL team thought him a first round talent, his bust rate goes from about 50% to around 75%. That's a major blow to value.I had mentioned that above. I think Coop is right about this as he has also listed some pretty notable players taken in lower rounds.Warning random fact: That's why MJD wears #32, as a reminder. Something I like about him.He takes a hit because 32 passed on him.Not sure how we can call Lacy a loser yet, since he can still land in exactly the same situations as he would have in round 1--any of them, really. Except now all 32 teams are a realistic option. Which is both risky and exciting. He's still the same guy, this was just a really deep draft at more premiere positions.
To me, this is really about nothing more than supply and demand in this particular draft. Yes, it probably suggests that Lacy isn't being perceived by teams as being Adrian Peterson but, hye, teams have been wrong before...all of them, and even if they are right, it still doesn't mean Lacy can't be a Gore, a Forte, etc.
Isn't the question how many of them SHOULD have been? But people were scared away because...That's true, but how many of those guys were 1.01 rookie picks?Cherry picking a bit...I remember Clinton Portis being a 2nd rounder.
As was LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, MJD.
Frank Gore was a 3rd rounder.
Going back further, Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, and Rickey Watters were all 2nd rounders too.
If we have the power of hindsight, sure. But I don’t think we should point to exceptions and declare them a rule. What the NFL thinks about these guys is very important. The trends suggest that the higher you’re drafted, the more likely you are to be productive in the NFL. The break between the 1st and 2nd round is especially big, in terms of likelihood of success.Isn't the question how many of them SHOULD have been? But people were scared away because...That's true, but how many of those guys were 1.01 rookie picks?Cherry picking a bit...I remember Clinton Portis being a 2nd rounder.
As was LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, MJD.
Frank Gore was a 3rd rounder.
Going back further, Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, and Rickey Watters were all 2nd rounders too.
Honestly, I don't think it took a hit last night- tonight will be the determining factor. Maybe the reason it did in your mind was because you were still holding out some hope that he'd go 1st round to a good situation, maybe someone traded up to get him even? I think most already factored in that it probably wasn't going to happen.If we have the power of hindsight, sure. But I don’t think we should point to exceptions and declare them a rule. What the NFL thinks about these guys is very important. The trends suggest that the higher you’re drafted, the more likely you are to be productive in the NFL. The break between the 1st and 2nd round is especially big, in terms of likelihood of success.Isn't the question how many of them SHOULD have been? But people were scared away because...That's true, but how many of those guys were 1.01 rookie picks?Cherry picking a bit...I remember Clinton Portis being a 2nd rounder.
As was LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, MJD.
Frank Gore was a 3rd rounder.
Going back further, Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, and Rickey Watters were all 2nd rounders too.
I’m a fan and will be drafting and targeting where I can. I’m not saying he’s a bust or can’t end up being a top fantasy back. I’m simply saying his value took a hit. Maybe not major, especially if he goes in the first 5-6 picks tonight and lands in a good situation. It might mean nothing, long-term. But today his value is lower than it was yesterday. He’s still the same player, whom I like. But I’d feel better had the NFL nabbed him with a top 32 pick.
I respect that I might be right there with you. We'll see.I have the 1.1 in a league and am looking for any reason not to take Lacy there. So far I don't have one.
Of course I was holding out hope that he'd go in the first. Most major mock drafts had him going there. I thought it was 70/30 that he would honestly.Honestly, I don't think it took a hit last night- tonight will be the determining factor. Maybe the reason it did in your mind was because you were still holding out some hope that he'd go 1st round to a good situation, maybe someone traded up to get him even? I think most already factored in that it probably wasn't going to happen.
Right, but that's no glowing endorsement in favor of Lacy. It's simply that this class is filled with prospects that all carry significant question marks. The reason you've found no reason to not take Lacy at 1.01 is simply due to the importance of landing bellcow RB's, and the possibility that Lacy could be one.I have the 1.1 in a league and am looking for any reason not to take Lacy there. So far I don't have one.
we can't see the future? In the year Portis came out, I remember people championing DeShaun Foster. JJ Arington has as many supporters as Frank Gore. Even with 100% foresight, you're talking about 3 years. Westbrook/Portis, MJD and Gore (though I could see people arguing Rice over Johnson). So 3 or 4 years the #1 RB came out of the 2nd/3rd rounds. Carrying a 1st round talent grade means a lot for your future NFL prospects.Isn't the question how many of them SHOULD have been? But people were scared away because...That's true, but how many of those guys were 1.01 rookie picks?Cherry picking a bit...I remember Clinton Portis being a 2nd rounder.
As was LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, MJD.
Frank Gore was a 3rd rounder.
Going back further, Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, and Rickey Watters were all 2nd rounders too.
I never understood comments like these about players who decide to stay (i.e. Leinart). The NFL draft process finds every little flaw in every player which always drops hyped players from where they are projected after the college season.What did Barkley lose like $15mill for staying? Dope.
Exactly. The same guy in the same situation should get the same opportunity if he gets taken one round later. If you want to talk probabilities, then yes, the odds of succeeding are less if taken the next round - but from a practical standpoint, there really isn't much difference (if any).And he could still end up on any of those 32, and could still end up the #1 RB drafted. This draft was so deep at premier positions, I'm not sure all of the RB's falling out of round 1 is hugely insulting.Even if it is, he's still the same guy and he can still land in any situation.He takes a hit because 32 passed on him.Not sure how we can call Lacy a loser yet, since he can still land in exactly the same situations as he would have in round 1--any of them, really. Except now all 32 teams are a realistic option. Which is both risky and exciting. He's still the same guy, this was just a really deep draft at more premiere positions.
That really has nothing to do with his situation though.....or he could be one fumble away from the bench.Also Ryan Mathews value should increase, DJ Fluker is a great run blocker.
In a PPR I don't see how you don't go Austin. We know that offense can produce a high volume receiver, the Rams lost Amendola, that role fits perfectly for Austin's skill set and the Rams believed in him enough to trade up for him.I respect that I might be right there with you. We'll see.I have the 1.1 in a league and am looking for any reason not to take Lacy there. So far I don't have one.
This new coaching staff/FO will give him a long leash with the fumbling Im sure.That really has nothing to do with his situation though.....or he could be one fumble away from the bench.Also Ryan Mathews value should increase, DJ Fluker is a great run blocker.
No worries, just pointing out a possible explanation. I think after the pro day most people dropped him down more than you did, which is probably why most are saying he didn't drop much last night- just a difference in timing.Of course I was holding out hope that he'd go in the first. Most major mock drafts had him going there. I thought it was 70/30 that he would honestly.Honestly, I don't think it took a hit last night- tonight will be the determining factor. Maybe the reason it did in your mind was because you were still holding out some hope that he'd go 1st round to a good situation, maybe someone traded up to get him even? I think most already factored in that it probably wasn't going to happen.
But, even if we say it was only 30/70. It's now 0. We know that the NFL didn't use a 1st round pick on him. So, even if he only had a 30% chance - he's in a worse spot that he was yesterday.
Not to keep talking in circles. But I am not saying his value is destroyed or he won't still be worthy of the top pick this year. Just that not going in the first means something at the very least.
For me it's based on the perceptions that caused the guy to drop out of the first round. Staying with the Bears, the last time they used a 2nd round pick on a RB before Forte it was for Anthony Thomas (A-Train). A-Train had a very good rookie year, but that was the only time he had a season above baseline VBD. His inability to stay healthy and his failure to maintain a YPC over 4.0 led the Bears to bring in Thomas Jones.Exactly. The same guy in the same situation should get the same opportunity if he gets taken one round later. If you want to talk probabilities, then yes, the odds of succeeding are less if taken the next round - but from a practical standpoint, there really isn't much difference (if any).
Off the top of my head, a good example would be Forte who some people like EBAY devalued in this forum because he didn't have a "1st round pedigree" (he was taken as the 13th pick in the 2nd round by the Bears). Bottom line was that he found himself in the exact same situation as if Chicago had taken him a round earlier (a choice landing spot with no real competition at the time).
Yeah, this is scary too. At some point, he's likely to be BPA on some boards of team's without a clear path to 20 touches a game.FWIW, I just saw a mock (ESPN maybe) predicting Buffalo for Lacy- yikes if that happens!
running qbs have always helped rbs productivity due to occupying more defenders and opening lanesFunny - I was thinking that Spiller might be a slight downgrade. With Manuel's legs, he gives another option in the running game and can take away some touches from Spiller. Of course, it all depends on Manuel develops as a passer to open up those lanes.I think Spiller is a winner... if not immediately, eventually. With Manuel in Buffalo he can take some attention off the running game and open up some lanes for Spiller.
Except the backs in CAR.running qbs have always helped rbs productivity due to occupying more defenders and opening lanes
I think St. Louis was a good landing spot for Austin, clearly far better than somewhere like the Jets. That said, I'm curious how the addition of Jared Cook will impact the "Amendola" role in that offense. I like that St. Louis traded up to get Austin, but I've tempered my expectations just a bit as I still think there are some questions marks for Austin in St. Louis as well.In a PPR I don't see how you don't go Austin. We know that offense can produce a high volume receiver, the Rams lost Amendola, that role fits perfectly for Austin's skill set and the Rams believed in him enough to trade up for him.I respect that I might be right there with you. We'll see.I have the 1.1 in a league and am looking for any reason not to take Lacy there. So far I don't have one.
There being 2 of them hurts more than Cam. Cam cammed all over 2011 but if you combine DeAngelo and Stewart it's basically a top 5 RB with 1500 and 10 at 5+ YPC. Stewart struggled in 2012 but not due to Cam, necessarily.Except the backs in CAR.running qbs have always helped rbs productivity due to occupying more defenders and opening lanes
That would be interestingMaybe they deal Gresham today for a 4th or 5th rd pick?I agree that Green should be a slight winner. I think the offense as a whole is going to benefit with the exception of Gresham.Thoughts on AJ Green's value.
I think he's a winner. Green seemed like he got a ton of attention from defenses. Hopefully with Eifert and two TE sets, it takes some focus away from him.
What does this mean honestly?LosersCowboys/Bills/Bears fansWinnerVikings and Rams
I think JohnnyU is fishing. I think Mathews value increases with Fluker, that OL is really big right now.This new coaching staff/FO will give him a long leash with the fumbling Im sure.That really has nothing to do with his situation though.....or he could be one fumble away from the bench.Also Ryan Mathews value should increase, DJ Fluker is a great run blocker.
....and a broken collar bone.....or he could be one fumble away from the bench.Also Ryan Mathews value should increase, DJ Fluker is a great run blocker.
A lot of truth. But the top goal line option on the team being a QB hurts. They went from the best rushing offense to one of the worst - Cam was there both years. If I was a Stewart owner and had the option, I'd replace Cam with a traditional QB. Morris' numbers went up when RG3 was out or playing hurt, too.There being 2 of them hurts more than Cam. Cam cammed all over 2011 but if you combine DeAngelo and Stewart it's basically a top 5 RB with 1500 and 10 at 5+ YPC. Stewart struggled in 2012 but not due to Cam, necessarily.
I'd replace him with Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning, maybe, but not a rookie or mediocre guy. Still double digit TDs going to the RB, just spread over 2 or 3 guys. Tolbert had 7 last year. If I'm a Stewart owner, I just throw my hands up in the air and sit on him hoping for the best.A lot of truth. But the top goal line option on the team being a QB hurts. They went from the best rushing offense to one of the worst - Cam was there both years. If I was a Stewart owner and had the option, I'd replace Cam with a traditional QB. Morris' numbers went up when RG3 was out or playing hurt, too.There being 2 of them hurts more than Cam. Cam cammed all over 2011 but if you combine DeAngelo and Stewart it's basically a top 5 RB with 1500 and 10 at 5+ YPC. Stewart struggled in 2012 but not due to Cam, necessarily.
Yeah - fair enough.I'd replace him with Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning, maybe, but not a rookie or mediocre guy. Still double digit TDs going to the RB, just spread over 2 or 3 guys. Tolbert had 7 last year. If I'm a Stewart owner, I just throw my hands up in the air and sit on him hoping for the best.
Because Bradford feeds the slot, and Austin is likely to be a major part of the offense. Think Harvin in Minny.Why is St Louis a good landing spot for Austin? I don't get it, Bradford is a bad fantasy QB, they have no RB to extend drives, the line is ok. Seems like a subpar spot to me.
To go along with that, you could argue that St. Louis is one of the few places without a true #1 WR (Quick? Givens?). From my perspective that is about as good as it could get for Austin in terms of potential targets. Targets don't always equate to production but they certainly don't hurt.Because Bradford feeds the slot, and Austin is likely to be a major part of the offense.Why is St Louis a good landing spot for Austin? I don't get it, Bradford is a bad fantasy QB, they have no RB to extend drives, the line is ok. Seems like a subpar spot to me.
There were 1st round mocks from January that didn't have Barkley getting picked. It's not like he only fell because of his combine/workouts.G5781 said:I never understood comments like these about players who decide to stay (i.e. Leinart). The NFL draft process finds every little flaw in every player which always drops hyped players from where they are projected after the college season.Daywalker said:What did Barkley lose like $15mill for staying? Dope.
If Barkley came out last year, he would've been scrutinized and evaluated in depth just like this year. People were hyping Barkley last year before the pre-draft activities. The same criticisms of him this year would've been discovered last year. I find it hard to believe Barkley gets drafted in the 1st round last year in one of the best QB classes and not in the 1st in one of the weakest.
trying to wrap my head around this but not sure I will....in terms of fantasy value....nothing has changed....he didn't have a team before and he still doesn't....the fact that he wasn't the right pick so far for several teams really has nothing to do with his fantasy value.....he may in fact be very high on many teams boards, maybe even higher rated then the guy the team has already taken, but positional need was more important to that team at the time...Concept Coop said:If we have the power of hindsight, sure. But I don’t think we should point to exceptions and declare them a rule. What the NFL thinks about these guys is very important. The trends suggest that the higher you’re drafted, the more likely you are to be productive in the NFL. The break between the 1st and 2nd round is especially big, in terms of likelihood of success.Andy Dufresne said:Isn't the question how many of them SHOULD have been? But people were scared away because...Gawain said:That's true, but how many of those guys were 1.01 rookie picks?Andy Dufresne said:Cherry picking a bit...I remember Clinton Portis being a 2nd rounder.
As was LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, MJD.
Frank Gore was a 3rd rounder.
Going back further, Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, and Rickey Watters were all 2nd rounders too.
I’m a fan and will be drafting and targeting where I can. I’m not saying he’s a bust or can’t end up being a top fantasy back. I’m simply saying his value took a hit. Maybe not major, especially if he goes in the first 5-6 picks tonight and lands in a good situation. It might mean nothing, long-term. But today his value is lower than it was yesterday. He’s still the same player, whom I like. But I’d feel better had the NFL nabbed him with a top 32 pick.
I'm thinking DeSean Jackson in Danny Amendola's role. Lots of 3 wide, single back sets. Quick and Givens on the outside with Cook at TE. Bradford should see some improved numbers, and with StL D coming on and getting stronger, you may see more scoring opportunities too. If they get Lacy next, the Rams could be a year away from contending in that division.Chachi said:Why is St Louis a good landing spot for Austin? I don't get it, Bradford is a bad fantasy QB, they have no RB to extend drives, the line is ok. Seems like a subpar spot to me.
And a ton of cash. Any team can buy players without giving up a 1st round pick.ImTheScientist said:Seahawks got Harvin with their #1..... they win for sure.
JaxBill said:Blaine Gabbert
Jags now have two solid tackles, the young WRs have a year under their belt as starters and supposedly they're not going QB in the second.
:ducks:
I'd be surprised if Jax don'tstrongly consider a QB in the 2nd. The Bills were taking Nassib, Miami moved up to get a top OL... Until neither of them did.JaxBill said:Blaine Gabbert
Jags now have two solid tackles, the young WRs have a year under their belt as starters and supposedly they're not going QB in the second.
:ducks: