I'll take the under and wager a buck.
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FBG Subscriber Playoff Contest (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bad_Mo
- Start date
I think the number of players available in the super bowl will depend on the teams in it. If a San Fran makes it, I could see a big number of players because you could roster the whole squad for a good price. I would be surprised to see 12 players available if it is some combination of NE, Balt, G.Bay or N.O. The money spent to roster 12 from those teams would leave you very thin. But as someone just mentioned, all it takes is one to sneak in catching a few breaks.
rustycolts
Footballguy
number 9 number 9 number 9
Screwed unless I can snake by with monster efforts from some Balt and GB guys in the 3rd Round. Which... now that I think of it might be possible given the low number of entries this year 
Aaron Rodgers $40 0.00
Greg Jennings $21 0.00
Jordy Nelson $19 0.00
James Jones $11 0.00
Jermichael Finley $19 0.00
Ray Rice $26 0.00
Anquan Boldin $10 0.00
Ed Dickson $11 0.00
Dennis Pitta $8 0.00
Hakeem Nicks $18 29.50
Jake Ballard $6 4.60
Eddie Royal $2 13.90
Matthew Stafford $20 41.10
Calvin Johnson $15 45.10
Antonio Brown $24 13.80
Aaron Rodgers $40 0.00
Greg Jennings $21 0.00
Jordy Nelson $19 0.00
James Jones $11 0.00
Jermichael Finley $19 0.00
Ray Rice $26 0.00
Anquan Boldin $10 0.00
Ed Dickson $11 0.00
Dennis Pitta $8 0.00
Hakeem Nicks $18 29.50
Jake Ballard $6 4.60
Eddie Royal $2 13.90
Matthew Stafford $20 41.10
Calvin Johnson $15 45.10
Antonio Brown $24 13.80
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Number of total entries was way less than expected (about 5,900 total)... but Calvin and Stafford gave some teams a massive push.
Some very hot offenses left in the playoffs, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say our cutoff will be under 105 for next week.
chocula
Footballguy
For some reason, I just could not figure out a winning team for this contest. No matter how I plugged in the players or arranged them, I always thought I was missing something. IN the end, I just went with what I thought may give me a chance.
I did not make the cut, so good luck to everyone:
Here is my team:
Tom Brady $36 0.00
BenJarvus Green-Ellis $9 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $22 0.00
Anquan Boldin $10 0.00
Andy Dalton $16 11.55
Aaron Rodgers $40 0.00
Ryan Grant $7 0.00
Jordy Nelson $19 0.00
Frank Gore $8 0.00
Michael Crabtree $9 0.00
Pierre Thomas $19 21.10
Victor Cruz $20 4.80
Matt Ryan $24 10.25
Michael Turner $11 5.10
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 52.80
CUTOFF 88.60
I did not make the cut, so good luck to everyone:
Here is my team:
Tom Brady $36 0.00
BenJarvus Green-Ellis $9 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $22 0.00
Anquan Boldin $10 0.00
Andy Dalton $16 11.55
Aaron Rodgers $40 0.00
Ryan Grant $7 0.00
Jordy Nelson $19 0.00
Frank Gore $8 0.00
Michael Crabtree $9 0.00
Pierre Thomas $19 21.10
Victor Cruz $20 4.80
Matt Ryan $24 10.25
Michael Turner $11 5.10
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 52.80
CUTOFF 88.60
PatsChowder
Footballguy
17 people eliminated for not reading the rules scoring 0.00 due to ALL players being on bye.
I think the line should be closer to 9.And I'll guess it comes in around 8 or 9 unless either Denver or San Fran (or both) make the superbowl. The better players were just too expensive so I don't think a team will be able to buy 10-12 players of the better teams and leave enough room for them to a) make it to the superbowl round and b) outscore the other superbowl teams.
Perhaps they were hoping for fewer entries than the first cut? If that had happened, it might be a significant advantage to purchase only players from the 4 bye teams.
smarchit
Footballguy
Since my team is still alive and clearly going to advance/win it all, the number is obviously slightly higher -- 14 total
But realistically, I think in a best case scenario I'll be screwed Conference Championship week. I'll officially say 9 SB players will be on the contest winner's team. This is my first time in the contest, but looking over past results, I'd say the cost increase that many have complained about this year is going to go a long way towards changing the dynamics of this contest's strategy going forward. With how cost prohibitive it is to load up on top team players, another few layers of luck have been added to what was already a difficult challenge.
themeanmachine
Footballguy
If I'm interpreting these numbers correctly as the cutoffs from last year:Wild Card round: 92.75 Division round: 119.20 Championship round: 52.40It won't take much to get through the Championship round if you've picked the right Super Bowl teams. Should be no problem at all for the 4 best players to score 60+ if you picked a lot of them.I'm more concerned about this week - I have 11 players from the 2 SB teams I predicted (NYG/BAL), and 3 of my other players were eliminated after last week. I'm hoping to get 80+ from the 4 best NYG/BAL players I picked, but that leaves it to the likes of Crabtree and Devery Henderson to get me the rest of the way. More than likely, I'll need a really big day from some of the NYG/BAL players, and since I took all the studs from those two teams, it could happen.Since my team is still alive and clearly going to advance/win it all, the number is obviously slightly higher -- 14 total
wollac
Footballguy
Ditto.Took my chance trying to cut it close to squeak by this weekend and I lost.
No offense but I hope you don't make it lol we both have pretty similar GB/BLT squads. I managed to get Flacco and Cobb but still have 9 combined. Anyways if you survive THIS week you're likely safe if GB/BLT advance. I'm in the same boat but can't imagine my teams win AND I don't break 100 so I feel confident.Screwed unless I can snake by with monster efforts from some Balt and GB guys in the 3rd Round. Which... now that I think of it might be possible given the low number of entries this year
Aaron Rodgers $40 0.00
Greg Jennings $21 0.00
Jordy Nelson $19 0.00
James Jones $11 0.00
Jermichael Finley $19 0.00
Ray Rice $26 0.00
Anquan Boldin $10 0.00
Ed Dickson $11 0.00
Dennis Pitta $8 0.00
Hakeem Nicks $18 29.50
Jake Ballard $6 4.60
Eddie Royal $2 13.90
Matthew Stafford $20 41.10
Calvin Johnson $15 45.10
Antonio Brown $24 13.80
I was worried about taking too many players on BYE and overselected guys that are dead money now. I made the cut by 80 points and am kicking myself for not going with more NE/GB players.Ditto.Took my chance trying to cut it close to squeak by this weekend and I lost.
LOL my 12 prediction was not meant to be an over/underNo action.-QG
I had a very similiar choice of players. Deion Branch $10 0.00 Joe Flacco $25 0.00 Ray Rice $26 0.00 Lee Evans $3 0.00 Ed Dickson $11 0.00 Dennis Pitta $8 0.00 Baltimore Ravens $10 0.00 Joel Dreessen $7 0.00 Houston Texans $9 16.00 Ryan Grant $7 0.00 Kendall Hunter $5 0.00 Delanie Walker $2 0.00 Robert Meachem $15 21.10 Devery Henderson $11 14.80 Eli Manning $27 33.15 Ahmad Bradshaw $14 11.00 Brandon Jacobs $6 11.00 Victor Cruz $20 4.80 Hakeem Nicks $18 29.50 New York Giants $8 2.00 Titus Young $8 8.10 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL 122.65 CUTOFF 88.60
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
You know, I participate in the in-season FBG $20k contest, and I think I have a pretty good grasp of the rules and strategy. But I am a bit vexed with this playoff contest. Does my team have a shot?
butcher boy
Footballguy
I was thinking today that if we get a Superbowl with commonly chosen teams like NE/GB, there are more than likely going to be dozens of teams who each have the same players, hence the need to use the tiebreakers.
I just now read the tiebreaker rules after assuming the first tiebreaker would be "highest score total for all 4 weeks".
I think I'm high-middle of the pack in terms of number of players, but I almost submitted a roster of only 12 guys.
I just now read the tiebreaker rules after assuming the first tiebreaker would be "highest score total for all 4 weeks".
I think I'm high-middle of the pack in terms of number of players, but I almost submitted a roster of only 12 guys.
Very slim chance of going to tiebreakers. We'll be down to 1000 finalists. At best 500 will have the right Super Bowl. Half of those won't have read the rules. That will leave 250 entries. New Orleans alone had 1 qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, 2 te, 1 d, and 1 kicker. Just working off the top of my head, the values were 52, 28, 18, 13, 27, 18, 13, 10, 35, 4, 23, 16 for a total of 257. Those high cap numbers actually force people to take a smaller number of picks of a pool of 12 players, leaving more potential combos on the board.I was thinking today that if we get a Superbowl with commonly chosen teams like NE/GB, there are more than likely going to be dozens of teams who each have the same players, hence the need to use the tiebreakers. I just now read the tiebreaker rules after assuming the first tiebreaker would be "highest score total for all 4 weeks".
Tom Brady $36 0.00 BenJarvus Green-Ellis $9 0.00
Kevin Faulk $2 0.00
Deion Branch $10 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $22 0.00
Probably looking at Gronk and Brady here. Brady is good for 30+, Gronk is the wildcard. 20 is a good baseline for him. Probably will end up in the 50-60 range.
Eric Decker $4 0.90
hurt?? Likely a donut.
Hines Ward $9 0.00
Pittsburgh Steelers $9 2.00
Cedric Benson $10 7.70
Jordy Nelson $19 0.00
A very key player for you. 10 points in the bank.
Drew Brees $52 41.20
Darren Sproles $28 22.50
Robert Meachem $15 21.10
Hard to say v. SF. Brees should be good for 20-25. Sproles and meachum are wildcards. One should get a td and net you 15-20. this trio will get you 40-45
Ahmad Bradshaw $14 11.00
A safe bet for 10 pts, limited upside
Michael Turner $11 5.10
Even with my conservative projections, I think you easily advance. I don't think you have enough horsepower to finish in the money. Most of the NO heavy teams will have you covered with quanity. Even your NE team is missing Welker and Hernadez. That said, no/ne had some mega salaries and I can't see where you could have cut it thinner.
Jojo the circus boy
Footballguy
Assuming NFC Champ Game is GB/NOS and AFC Champ Game at least has BAL I think I have a shot of making it to SB week. If 6 players is going to be enough, I'll have to wait and hope for a lot of New Orleans field goals since I don't think a lot of people paid the premium on Kasay.
Have only seen 1 other team mention Kasay in this thread
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HellToupee
Footballguy
went heavy on a GB/Bal super bowl and was eliminated by .30
Only problem is that lots of no fg's means not a lot of Brees TDs. If we both make the finals, I have your Balt players plus Boldin/Evans/Cundiff. That's got to be good for 20 pts. We both have Meachum, so can Brees + Kasey outscore Graham + Colsten + Henderson by 20 pts. That said, you'll definately outscore me this week and are a shoe in to advance to the next round.Assuming NFC Champ Game is GB/NOS and AFC Champ Game at least has BAL I think I have a shot of making it to SB week. If 6 players is going to be enough, I'll have to wait and hope for a lot of New Orleans field goals since I don't think a lot of people paid the premium on Kasay.
Have only seen 1 other team mention Kasay in this thread
I had Kasey in several versions but came to the conslusion that odds favored one of Henderson or Meachum outscoring him in the Super Bowl.
The kickers offered great value $ per pt wise. Problem is their downside was too huge to take as a solo play (see Bryant), and their upside still didn't top that of the QB/RB/WR options when you assmebled a combo of players from a team. Basically they're almost worthless on your Super Bowl teams until the last week.
Dang dude...that's too painful.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Thanks
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Made it through the first weekend without losing anyone. I can't win anyway, so I get to use a different strategy (only have to beat the other FBG staff guys). Clearly went heavy on NE but hedged with some scoring from with GB or NO if they get that far.
Tom Brady $36 0.00
BenJarvus Green-Ellis $9 0.00
Stevan Ridley $7 0.00
Wes Welker $23 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $22 0.00
Arian Foster $24 31.70
Ryan Grant $7 0.00
Jordy Nelson $19 0.00
Chris Ivory $13 4.70
Marques Colston $27 19.00
Jimmy Graham $35 22.00
Eli Manning $27 33.15
Tom Brady $36 0.00
BenJarvus Green-Ellis $9 0.00
Stevan Ridley $7 0.00
Wes Welker $23 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $22 0.00
Arian Foster $24 31.70
Ryan Grant $7 0.00
Jordy Nelson $19 0.00
Chris Ivory $13 4.70
Marques Colston $27 19.00
Jimmy Graham $35 22.00
Eli Manning $27 33.15
What are the rules of your staff-only competition? I was wondering why the staff entries were so anti-loading-up-on-2-teams.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Same rules as everyone else, just a lot fewer entries.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
how about some player ownership stats? a querier? a sim?
The two contests are the main reason I sign up each year, and they haven't been getting much attention this season...
The two contests are the main reason I sign up each year, and they haven't been getting much attention this season...
What is the penalty for a terrible showing (i.e., getting bounced in the first round, finishing well below the average member entry, etc.)? You owe FBGs free articles for 3 months or something?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
It seems like some guys didn't bother to read the rules, so they already got bounced. Bad showings = picking up Joe's dry cleaning for a year.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
From what I can tell, 3 staffers went heavy on teams that weren't playing in Week 1 of the playoffs. One had GB/NE, one had BAL/SF, and another went crazy for NO players (apparently not realizing only 2 guys could score).They are easily identified in the weekly standings for those that are interested in knowing who they are . . .
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
staff members week 1 scores:
Stephen Holloway 170.1
Andy Hicks 141.1
FBG Henry 125
Greg Russell 120.8
Entry 100826 105.85
Jene Bramel 94.5
Jeff Haseley 90.1
Did not make cut:
Bruce Henderson 79.65
Pasquino 63.2
Tefertiller 63.2
Memphis Foundry 27.35
Stephen Holloway 170.1
Andy Hicks 141.1
FBG Henry 125
Greg Russell 120.8
Entry 100826 105.85
Jene Bramel 94.5
Jeff Haseley 90.1
Did not make cut:
Bruce Henderson 79.65
Pasquino 63.2
Tefertiller 63.2
Memphis Foundry 27.35
Jojo the circus boy
Footballguy
I have to assume anyone in the SB that will be my competition has Brees, so that is not so much an issue. It also means teams with a lot of Saints WR's will have fewer TD's too'BassNBrew said:Only problem is that lots of no fg's means not a lot of Brees TDs. If we both make the finals, I have your Balt players plus Boldin/Evans/Cundiff. That's got to be good for 20 pts. We both have Meachum, so can Brees + Kasey outscore Graham + Colsten + Henderson by 20 pts. That said, you'll definately outscore me this week and are a shoe in to advance to the next round.'Jojo the circus boy said:Assuming NFC Champ Game is GB/NOS and AFC Champ Game at least has BAL I think I have a shot of making it to SB week. If 6 players is going to be enough, I'll have to wait and hope for a lot of New Orleans field goals since I don't think a lot of people paid the premium on Kasay.
Have only seen 1 other team mention Kasay in this thread
I had Kasey in several versions but came to the conslusion that odds favored one of Henderson or Meachum outscoring him in the Super Bowl.
The kickers offered great value $ per pt wise. Problem is their downside was too huge to take as a solo play (see Bryant), and their upside still didn't top that of the QB/RB/WR options when you assmebled a combo of players from a team. Basically they're almost worthless on your Super Bowl teams until the last week.
I agree with you, you are going to have a tough road getting to the SB since you are so heavy BAL/NOS
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This calls into question everything I read going forward by these bottom 4 dwellers.
Johnny Rock
Footballguy
I haven't seen anyone talking about NO/NE but maybe I missed it. Surely someone not posting in this thread has me covered?
Happy to make it through with 5 players week 18 and ended up with higher points than I expected. Still have $230 working so I got that going for me.
Tom Brady $36 0.00
Wes Welker $23 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $22 0.00
John Kuhn $4 0.00
Randall Cobb $8 0.00
Drew Brees $52 41.20
Chris Ivory $13 4.70
Robert Meachem $15 21.10
Jimmy Graham $35 22.00
Ahmad Bradshaw $14 11.00
Lawrence Tynes $8 6.00
Matthew Stafford $20 41.1
TOTAL 121.30
CUTOFF 88.60
Good luck everyone!
Happy to make it through with 5 players week 18 and ended up with higher points than I expected. Still have $230 working so I got that going for me.
Tom Brady $36 0.00
Wes Welker $23 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $22 0.00
John Kuhn $4 0.00
Randall Cobb $8 0.00
Drew Brees $52 41.20
Chris Ivory $13 4.70
Robert Meachem $15 21.10
Jimmy Graham $35 22.00
Ahmad Bradshaw $14 11.00
Lawrence Tynes $8 6.00
Matthew Stafford $20 41.1
TOTAL 121.30
CUTOFF 88.60
Good luck everyone!
BoomBoom
Footballguy
Also went NE / NO...with TE at 1.5 ppr, figured I'd grab cheap TE from most teams and hope for 10-15 out of those spots...with 40+ from my 2 Saints and 2 Pats. Spent 5 minutes on this...probably should have taken bgje instead of wood head. Oh well.
18
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Tom Brady $36 0.00
Danny Woodhead $7 0.00
Stevan Ridley $7 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $22 0.00
Aaron Hernandez $20 0.00
Ed Dickson $11 0.00
Willis McGahee $6 6.10
Jermichael Finley $19 0.00
Vernon Davis $9 0.00
Drew Brees $52 41.20
Chris Ivory $13 4.70
Marques Colston $27 19.00
Matthew Stafford $20 41.10
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 107.40
CUTOFF 88.60
18
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tom Brady $36 0.00
Danny Woodhead $7 0.00
Stevan Ridley $7 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $22 0.00
Aaron Hernandez $20 0.00
Ed Dickson $11 0.00
Willis McGahee $6 6.10
Jermichael Finley $19 0.00
Vernon Davis $9 0.00
Drew Brees $52 41.20
Chris Ivory $13 4.70
Marques Colston $27 19.00
Matthew Stafford $20 41.10
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 107.40
CUTOFF 88.60
Zegras11
Footballguy
If we make it to SB, then you have Woodhead and I have NO D/ST. rest the same on NO/NE
stubby
Footballguy
BoomBoom, looks like you have Woodhead, both NE TEs, Ivory, and Colston to my Welker, Sproles, Meachum, and Graham...that would be an interesting final, too...although I think I'd give the edge to you.
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Went with a Houston Superbowl, but looking back on it, not sure I'll have enough players in the game to have much of a chance. I have 6 Texans, so a Hous/Saints superbowl will give me 9 players, and Hous/SF bowl gives me 8. I'm fairly confident I'll make it past this week.
18
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T.J. Yates $22 13.75
Arian Foster $24 31.70
Ben Tate $9 3.70
Andre Johnson $14 20.00
Jacoby Jones $4 0.00
Owen Daniels $11 5.90
Tim Tebow $13 38.80
Alex Smith $13 0.00
Delanie Walker $2 0.00
Drew Brees $52 41.20
Marques Colston $27 19.00
Jimmy Graham $35 22.00
Matt Ryan $24 10.25
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 163.95
CUTOFF 88.60
18
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
T.J. Yates $22 13.75
Arian Foster $24 31.70
Ben Tate $9 3.70
Andre Johnson $14 20.00
Jacoby Jones $4 0.00
Owen Daniels $11 5.90
Tim Tebow $13 38.80
Alex Smith $13 0.00
Delanie Walker $2 0.00
Drew Brees $52 41.20
Marques Colston $27 19.00
Jimmy Graham $35 22.00
Matt Ryan $24 10.25
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 163.95
CUTOFF 88.60
If Holloway picked two from all 8 WC teams to score that well that's just as bad in not reading the rules as scoring 27!This calls into question everything I read going forward by these bottom 4 dwellers.
My playoff contest teams are mostly focused on players from the 49ers and Ravens. I did not particularly think that these two teams were the favorites, but liked the value of the number of players that you could get combined with the potential to make it all the way.Since both my teams were NOT wild card teams, I selected two players each from the WC teams I expected to win (NY Giants - Eli & Nicks and Bengals - Dalton & Greene) and then added two Lions players (Stafford and Calvin) who I hoped would score well and upset the Saints.Obviously losing four players was not what I hoped for and now I am counting on only six players this weekend as well as wins by my two Super Bowl teams to get me by. Using 20/20 hindight, if I could have know how well Stafford and Calvin would have done, then I would have added a player or two from either the Packers or Patriots rather than the two Bengals.Oh well.If Holloway picked two from all 8 WC teams to score that well that's just as bad in not reading the rules as scoring 27!This calls into question everything I read going forward by these bottom 4 dwellers.
I think the biggest problem in your strategy (other than assuming the Bengals would win
) is the teams you picked for the Super Bowl. You went with two low scoring offenses. Even if you get by this week, you would have trouble with next week. Assume the top 4 seeds win this weekend. If you only have your SB players up against entries who only have GB/NE players, you would have trouble advancing even if SF and Baltimore go to the Super Bowl.
Kuz
Footballguy
this doesn't make any sense - If his 2 teams win they must score to win. Having 4 players in the 2 games should be enough to make it to the finals.I think the biggest problem in your strategy (other than assuming the Bengals would win
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
I built a similar team, but I threw in Ridley and Grant so I'd have six players count. If it works out, there will be a lot of NO players out there that would get teams through this round and then count 0 next week.this doesn't make any sense - If his 2 teams win they must score to win. Having 4 players in the 2 games should be enough to make it to the finals.I think the biggest problem in your strategy (other than assuming the Bengals would win
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
It makes sense, except it assumes that the GB and/or NE players would outscore the SF and BAL ones. I think thats a decent sized jump to conclusions, especially considering BAL vs NE and each team's respective defense.this doesn't make any sense - If his 2 teams win they must score to win. Having 4 players in the 2 games should be enough to make it to the finals.I think the biggest problem in your strategy (other than assuming the Bengals would win
I also have the two NY Giant players, IF the Giants can beat the Packers. However, even if I only have four scorers for the semi-final round and they are the two lowest scoring teams remaining, one or two of the Ravens or 49ers could hit big. I could see Ray Rice getting over 150 total yards and scoring multiple TDs and similar possibilities for Frank Gore. In addition to this, I don't have to be the high scorer, just make the cut so that my heavy 49er and Raven roster gets a shot.this doesn't make any sense - If his 2 teams win they must score to win. Having 4 players in the 2 games should be enough to make it to the finals.I think the biggest problem in your strategy (other than assuming the Bengals would win
