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GM's thread about nothing (27 Viewers)

At the Austin rodeo.

1. Anyone that doubts god being a man needs to fine out here.

2. I don't want to live in a world where Sarah Evans (tonight's performer) isn't a wild sex kitten behind closed doors.

 
I had a real Homer moment at a meeting tonight. I'm on the steering committee for the local United Way Young Leader Society and we were talking about doing a volunteer project at a middle school. Someone mentioned the need for everyone to submit to a background check before we could get on campus. I responded that I hung around middle school campuses all the time and nobody ever said anything about it so I didn't see how it would be a problem. Nobody laughed.

 
'bentley said:
I had a real Homer moment at a meeting tonight. I'm on the steering committee for the local United Way Young Leader Society and we were talking about doing a volunteer project at a middle school. Someone mentioned the need for everyone to submit to a background check before we could get on campus. I responded that I hung around middle school campuses all the time and nobody ever said anything about it so I didn't see how it would be a problem. Nobody laughed.
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I can loan you one of my background checks. I think I've had FOUR.
 
'bentley said:
I had a real Homer moment at a meeting tonight. I'm on the steering committee for the local United Way Young Leader Society and we were talking about doing a volunteer project at a middle school. Someone mentioned the need for everyone to submit to a background check before we could get on campus. I responded that I hung around middle school campuses all the time and nobody ever said anything about it so I didn't see how it would be a problem. Nobody laughed.
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"Oh c'mon, people! Laugh a little! I wasn't being serious! I haven't molested a kid in weeks!"
 
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'Tremendous Upside said:
AA: Village Vanguard is indeed a landmark, as is Blue Note

Other places: Zinc Bar: Pretty cool loungy jazz place...You can sit at the bar with no cover and hear the music well, or sit in the performance area for (I think) $15...Bar is usually fine...Decent drinks, cool vibe

Shoolbreds: Cool spot that is somewhere between Lounge and Bar...Comfortable leather chairs, fireplace on cold nights, that kind of stuff...good cocktails, full bar

The Vault at Pfaffs: A little more spacious than some of the tiny "speakeasy" type places; excellent service and cocktails, cool decor

A little further north on 19th street bet 5th and 6th (quick cab ride form the Village):

Flatiron Lounge: Was here for the first time a couple of weekends ago...Cool art deco decor, decent drinks, not super pretentious...I liked it enough to go back again
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:thanks: Beautiful. Thanks, TU.

 
'shuke said:
So a project I'm on at work requires a meeting with people in both western Europe and Australia. At the same time. First one tonight is 2:00-3:00 AM. That's not that late for me, but I'm concerned about logistics, mainly my phone's ability to randomly drop calls while I'm at home. So I've decided to stay at work for it. :mellow:
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I work with a group that has folks placed in the following locations: Nairobi (Kenya), Cali (Colombia), Paris, Vancouver. We need to have about a half dozen 3.5 hour online discussions over the course of the next several months. I'm pushing WebEx and Doodle polling to its limits.
 
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'shuke said:
'Officer Pete Malloy said:
'shuke said:
'Aerial Assault said:
'shuke said:
How hot?
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Not exactly my type :shrug: , but looks pretty. Oh, wait, she's someone famous?
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No idea
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So it's a dude?
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That's what I'm trying to figure out. Looks like just a stock photo used for the story since no info is given on it. Supposedly Furley is familiar with this person.
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Reverse image search tells me this is Jenna Talackova, a transgender miss universe contestant.
 
'shuke said:
TRE/TU/Bogart, what is going on in that WIS draft thread? 24 teams and 45 rounds? What kind of league is it?
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I finally asked. They are drafting teams for a sim that will run after this season is in the books. I have no idea why they need 50 teams and 100 rounds, though.
 
'Mr. Pickles said:
'shuke said:
TRE/TU/Bogart, what is going on in that WIS draft thread? 24 teams and 45 rounds? What kind of league is it?
Click to expand...
I finally asked. They are drafting teams for a sim that will run after this season is in the books. I have no idea why they need 50 teams and 100 rounds, though.
Click to expand...
So what is a sim? I know it stands for simulated, but why would you draft for a sim based on stats that haven't happened yet, rather than just play a regular league while it is going on.
 
'shuke said:
TRE/TU/Bogart, what is going on in that WIS draft thread? 24 teams and 45 rounds? What kind of league is it?
Click to expand...
It's essentially a 2013 roto draft, but the league is played out after the season on WhatIfSports based on eventual 2013 statistical performance. Defense therefore matters. Conversely, things like saves or even ERA don't matter in of themselves. You could take a 40IP leftyspecialistwith great stats and make him your closer in the sim, for example. There are no pickups or drops during the season, so we need a deep draft to try and ensure enough innings pitched and plate appearances for all positions due to injury, benching, demotion, etc.24 teams is just one of the standard league configurations, but it's the one that we use the most, 6 divisions of 4 teams eachThis our 3rd foray into this, and, I have to say, it is a lot of fun to track during the season, seeing how your lineup and pitching staff are shaping up
 
'shuke said:
'Mr. Pickles said:
'shuke said:
TRE/TU/Bogart, what is going on in that WIS draft thread? 24 teams and 45 rounds? What kind of league is it?
Click to expand...
I finally asked. They are drafting teams for a sim that will run after this season is in the books. I have no idea why they need 50 teams and 100 rounds, though.
Click to expand...
So what is a sim? I know it stands for simulated, but why would you draft for a sim based on stats that haven't happened yet, rather than just play a regular league while it is going on.
Click to expand...
In the simulation league, you play out games based on player seasonal stats that effectively represent probabilities in the simulation engine. I think this is a head-to-head format, so the sim engine will pair up teams according to a (presumably) 162 game schedule and simulate in-game events. At What If Sports you can do a "sim live" where you can manage certain things like pitching matchups and lineup changes, but most of the games are just run by the computer. It's just a different take on the fantasy idea since you are drafting without knowing how players will fare in the new season, and results aren't strictly tied to exact stats they accumulated over the season. There's a bit of an art to assigning probabilities based on player stats, but it seems to be pretty realistic.

I've been in a few sim leagues with these nerds and often we'd draft players with known season stats from a given era. It's still fun and somewhat unpredictable, but drafting for an as-yet unplayed season is an interesting twist.

 
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'shuke said:
'Mr. Pickles said:
'shuke said:
TRE/TU/Bogart, what is going on in that WIS draft thread? 24 teams and 45 rounds? What kind of league is it?
Click to expand...
I finally asked. They are drafting teams for a sim that will run after this season is in the books. I have no idea why they need 50 teams and 100 rounds, though.
Click to expand...
So what is a sim? I know it stands for simulated, but why would you draft for a sim based on stats that haven't happened yet, rather than just play a regular league while it is going on.
Click to expand...
Just a different way of approaching things. While roto baseball is fun, we all know the ways in which it perverts actual value (overrating saves and steals, defense not mattering, etc) We had done some 15 or so historical sims when we thought it would be interesting to apply it to the upcoming season, trying to predict performance (as you would with normal roto leagues), but with adding the SIM emphasis on baseline statistical performance (Sabermetic stuff, mainly) and defense to the equation

It's VERY :nerd:

 
I've been talked into a fantasy baseball league this year and don't know a damn thing. Any of you want to draft for me then turn the keys over?

 
'Tremendous Upside said:
'shuke said:
TRE/TU/Bogart, what is going on in that WIS draft thread? 24 teams and 45 rounds? What kind of league is it?
Click to expand...
It's essentially a 2013 roto draft, but the league is played out after the season on WhatIfSports based on eventual 2013 statistical performance. Defense therefore matters. Conversely, things like saves or even ERA don't matter in of themselves. You could take a 40IP leftyspecialistwith great stats and make him your closer in the sim, for example. There are no pickups or drops during the season, so we need a deep draft to try and ensure enough innings pitched and plate appearances for all positions due to injury, benching, demotion, etc.24 teams is just one of the standard league configurations, but it's the one that we use the most, 6 divisions of 4 teams eachThis our 3rd foray into this, and, I have to say, it is a lot of fun to track during the season, seeing how your lineup and pitching staff are shaping up
Click to expand...
I follow all this, but how could a lefty specialist end up just as valuable as a closer? Are saves just discounted entirely? And how can ERA not be important? Is it because the stats tracked make the shorthand of ERA unnecessary/redundant?
 
'Aerial Assault said:
'Tremendous Upside said:
'shuke said:
TRE/TU/Bogart, what is going on in that WIS draft thread? 24 teams and 45 rounds? What kind of league is it?
Click to expand...
It's essentially a 2013 roto draft, but the league is played out after the season on WhatIfSports based on eventual 2013 statistical performance. Defense therefore matters. Conversely, things like saves or even ERA don't matter in of themselves. You could take a 40IP leftyspecialistwith great stats and make him your closer in the sim, for example. There are no pickups or drops during the season, so we need a deep draft to try and ensure enough innings pitched and plate appearances for all positions due to injury, benching, demotion, etc.24 teams is just one of the standard league configurations, but it's the one that we use the most, 6 divisions of 4 teams eachThis our 3rd foray into this, and, I have to say, it is a lot of fun to track during the season, seeing how your lineup and pitching staff are shaping up
Click to expand...
I follow all this, but how could a lefty specialist end up just as valuable as a closer? Are saves just discounted entirely? And how can ERA not be important? Is it because the stats tracked make the shorthand of ERA unnecessary/redundant?
Click to expand...
I think the idea is that that sim doesn't take saves into account as far as value, it just looks at raw k, bb, HR ratios.
 
'Aerial Assault said:
'Tremendous Upside said:
'shuke said:
TRE/TU/Bogart, what is going on in that WIS draft thread? 24 teams and 45 rounds? What kind of league is it?
Click to expand...
It's essentially a 2013 roto draft, but the league is played out after the season on WhatIfSports based on eventual 2013 statistical performance. Defense therefore matters. Conversely, things like saves or even ERA don't matter in of themselves. You could take a 40IP leftyspecialistwith great stats and make him your closer in the sim, for example. There are no pickups or drops during the season, so we need a deep draft to try and ensure enough innings pitched and plate appearances for all positions due to injury, benching, demotion, etc.24 teams is just one of the standard league configurations, but it's the one that we use the most, 6 divisions of 4 teams eachThis our 3rd foray into this, and, I have to say, it is a lot of fun to track during the season, seeing how your lineup and pitching staff are shaping up
Click to expand...
I follow all this, but how could a lefty specialist end up just as valuable as a closer? Are saves just discounted entirely? And how can ERA not be important? Is it because the stats tracked make the shorthand of ERA unnecessary/redundant?
Click to expand...
The sim engine creates a performance profile based on stats like H/9, K/9, K/BB, etc. rather than outcomes like wins, losses, saves, and blown saves. If you plug a non-save guy into your roster and he's used in a save situation, the sim engine doesn't care if he accumulated a ton of saves during the season or not. All it does is use the algorithm to calculate outcomes based on the matchup.These sim sites don't state exactly how their algorithms work, so there is a bit of a mystery as to how stats translate into sim performance. Things like ERA and WHIP (or more advanced stats like ERC, ERA+, FIP, etc.) likely have some correlation with how the sim determines performance, but it's not known exactly how the programmers have built the algorithm. In my experience, certain normalized metrics help more than others. Just looking at ERA isn't going to do much. Wins, losses, and saves have essentially no value at all in determining sim performance.
 
'Aerial Assault said:
'Tremendous Upside said:
'shuke said:
TRE/TU/Bogart, what is going on in that WIS draft thread? 24 teams and 45 rounds? What kind of league is it?
Click to expand...
It's essentially a 2013 roto draft, but the league is played out after the season on WhatIfSports based on eventual 2013 statistical performance. Defense therefore matters. Conversely, things like saves or even ERA don't matter in of themselves. You could take a 40IP leftyspecialistwith great stats and make him your closer in the sim, for example. There are no pickups or drops during the season, so we need a deep draft to try and ensure enough innings pitched and plate appearances for all positions due to injury, benching, demotion, etc.

24 teams is just one of the standard league configurations, but it's the one that we use the most, 6 divisions of 4 teams each

This our 3rd foray into this, and, I have to say, it is a lot of fun to track during the season, seeing how your lineup and pitching staff are shaping up
Click to expand...
I follow all this, but how could a lefty specialist end up just as valuable as a closer? Are saves just discounted entirely? And how can ERA not be important? Is it because the stats tracked make the shorthand of ERA unnecessary/redundant?
Click to expand...
I shouldn't say that ERA isn't important at all, just that it's more of a byproduct of other things than something you are actually trying to "score" with as a category, the way you do with normal rotoIt's the same with saves. In a roto scoring league you are trying to aggregate saves as it is a scoring category, but the "save" in of itself is a pretty arbitrary creation.

What the WIS simulator does is incorporate the underlying statistics and create a game by game simulation of a fictional "season" for the team that you put together. Peripheral and sabermetric stats are what are really important. Things like BB/9, WHIP, OAV (Opponent's batting average), HR/9 and K/9 are essentially the data points the sim uses to determine the player's season profile in WIS. How often does the pitcher walk batters, give up hits, give up homers and strike guys out. Whether this happens in the 7th, 8th or 9th innings or whether it results in a save or not is irrelevant for sim purposes.

As an example:

Last season Frank Francisco had 23 saves,which means he was almost certainly rostered in all roto leagues...But he was awful. He walked 4.5 guys per 9, had a 1.6 WHIP, over a homer per 9 and a .269 OAV in 42 Innings

Conversely, Kelvin Hererra, a non closer on the Royals threw 84 innings with only 2.25 BB/9, a 1.19 WHIP, .4 HR/9 and a .250 OAV

So in twice the innings Hererra was better in every statistical category, but likely went unrostered in many leagues

In the Sim, however, he would have been a VERY valuable pitcher

That's not to say closers are worthless...Obviously Craig Kimbrel was a great sim league guy last season...But it was because of his tremendous peripherals, which resulted in a low ERA, and certainly not the # of saves he had

Same thing applies to hitting...OBP and SLG and AVG and HR/9 far outweigh team dependent counting stat things like runs or RBI

Does that make sense?

If you or anyone else has questions, come to the baseball forum and post in the WIS thread...I'm sure the rest of the GMTANNERS are all feeling like this right about now:

My link

 
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